论社会变革时期政策决策的超常性

在社会变革时期 ,许多现象都是首次出现。政策环境具有模糊性和不确定性 ,仅仅遵循社会发展中决策的一般规律进行决策是远远不够的 ,还必须进行超常决策 ,在此基础上进行政策的创新。这种超常性的主要表现就是决策的非逻辑性、非程序化和非模式化     

A Decision Analysis Approach to Policy Issues: The NAFTA Case

This article presents decision analysis concepts and tools that can help scholars and decision makers to get a better understanding of policy issues. It describes the structure of knowledge maps for representing uncertain elements in policy issues, and decision frames for uncovering the information elements behind conflicting positions and helps participants find a common ground for agreement. The article also presents the application of these techniques to issues arising from the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).     

Policy sciences perspectives on implementation processes

Implementation, from which flows operational policy, is an integral part of the policymaking process. This phenomenon is examined briefly as a socio-political process, an administrative task, a follow-on from systematic analysis, a problem in the diffusion and utilization of knowledge, and a basic capacity which is differentially distributed among organizations and subject to deliberate change. A three-dimensional framework for assessing the nature of implementation tasks and for making strategic choices in planning implementation is proposed and illustrated. Finally, implementation processes in a federalistic system are described as requiring multi-level participation of four classes of participants: administrative-bureaucratic, political leadership, rational-analytic and constituent elites. A variety of functions must be performed at federal, regional, and local levels to assure policy execution consistent with both policy designs and local contingencies.Revision of a paper delivered to American Association for the Advancement of Science, 138th Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, December 27, 1970.     

Policy analytic implications for a theory of prediction and decision

Decision theory developed to prescribe the consistent choice behavior under uncertainty of an ideal individual. The policy analysis context of organizational decision-making, however, necessitates certain modifications to the fundamental decision theory in order to deal with the problems of group consensus, ill-defined objectives and disparate information sources. The argument is presented that more attention must be given to the explicit formulation of judgment and that, in particular, there has to be an integration of the methodology of forecasting into the decision-analytic framework. A consequence of adopting a decision-theoretic approach to forecasting is the apparent need to develop ways of synthesizing the set of available predictive methods in order to satisfy the subjectivist principle of total evidence utilization. The synthetic approach to forecasting is in contrast to the conventional selective method. A brief review of some operational methods of pursuing the synthetic approach is given.     

试论现代行政决策的价值取向

决策理论认为,任何一项决策都必然包含着价值取向和事实依据两个相关因素。现代行政决策,作为一项高度综合而又极为复杂的政府行为,其基本价值取向和本质要求无疑是要实现决策的科学化和决策民主化的辩证统一。一、行政决策科学化是回应时代挑战的必然要求我们正处在一个剧烈变革的伟大时代,要回应时代的挑战,行政决策必须实现由经验型决策向现代科学型的转化。首先,社会生产力突飞猛进,科学技术的日新月异,正在直接撞击并深刻改变着人类社会的各个层面,与此相联系,公共行政决策正面临着前所未有的挑战,愈来愈呈现出综合化、高速…     

Looking Back to Move Forward: Quantifying Policy Predictions in Political Decision Making

Policy makers constantly face uncertainty, which makes achieving their goals problematic. To overcome this uncertainty, they employ tools to drive down uncertainty and make probabilistic decisions. We provide a method for scholars to assess empirically how actors make probabilistic predictions. We focus on the interactions between the executive and judicial branches, analyzing the conditions under which justices force the United States to provide them with information. Our approach generates substantive knowledge about interbranch behavior as well as a methodological innovation available to scholars who study political decision making under conditions of limited information.     

基于信息不对称的政策决策分析

人们的认知能力、权力配置和决策信息机制等因素对信息分布产生影响.在决策过程中常见的信息不对称包括决策者与一般公众之问的信息不对称、决策者之间的信息不对称以及与政策主客体相关的信息不对称.我国目前的权力配置和决策信息机制强化了决策中的信息不对称.信息不对称不仅影响了决策成本、质量、公正性和复杂程度.而且还对决策者的决策动机、心理产生影响,并强化了决策参与者之间的博弈行为,增加了决策中的道德风险.     

Policy Target Populations and Public Participation in Agency Decision Making

Why are some government agencies more open to public input than others? Although many agree about the normative desirability of involving citizens in administrative decision making, there is significant variation across agencies in the extent of public participation. This article investigates the conditions under which public managers solicit greater public participation. We argue that, in addition to normative rationales, participation also serves instrumental considerations related to agency constituency. We draw on a rich body of literature examining participation in the policy process to develop empirically testable hypotheses about the patterns of participation in the administrative decision making of public agencies. Using data on the approaches to gathering citizen input in the budget process at four state departments—environmental protection, transportation, child protective services, and corrections—we find that the characteristics of target populations (namely, their political power and social construction) are strong predictors of an agency's openness to the public.     

Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest

The Columbia River Basin management system suffers from conflicts over water use and allocation, and vulnerability to climate variability that disrupt hydropower, fisheries, irrigation, water supply, and other vital activities. Climate forecasts have the potential to improve water resource management in this system supporting management decisions that decrease its vulnerability to droughts, floods, and other crises related to climate variability. This study shows that despite the potential utility, managers do not use climate forecasts except for background information. The barriers to managers' use of climate forecasts include low forecast skill, lack of interpretation and demonstrated applications, low geographic resolution, inadequate links to climate variability related impacts, and institutional aversion to incorporating new tools into decision making. To realize the potential of climate forecasts for water resources management, we recommend strategies that include technical improvements to the forecast products, and joint efforts between forecast producers and the management community to develop and demonstrate climate forecast applications through reciprocal and iterative education.     

Bridging the Divide between Evidence and Policy in Public Sector Decision Making: A Practitioner's Perspective

While policy advocates can help bridge the divide between evidence and policy in decision making by focusing on ambiguity and uncertainty, policy makers must also play a role by promoting and preserving deliberative processes that value evidence as a core element in leveling raw constituent opinion, ultimately resulting in a better‐informed electorate. Building on existing research and analytic capability, state legislatures can increase the demand for and delivery of relevant information, giving the institution the capacity to keep abreast of research in critical public policy areas. By implementing data and time‐conscious evaluative frameworks that emphasize evidence‐based decision making and longitudinal cost–benefit analytics at critical policy‐making junctures, the institutional culture can become less unpredictable and the “rules of the game” can be more transparent. In 2015, Mississippi's legislative leaders created a system to review requests for new programs and funding using such an evidence screen.     

Symposium: Policy analysis for congress. Policy analysis for congress: Lengthening the time horizon

Policy analysis for the Congress is a timely subject. Several policy initiatives have emerged recently from the “first branch.” Others have demonstrated an independent capacity for analysis that is impressive by historical standards. This article introduces a practitioner symposium of three related works on policy analysis for Congress, with appropriate commentary by a distinguished veteran. It argues that because timing is crucial in the congressional policy process, anticipation and advance preparation are central to the effective use of analysis. The other articles illustrate the stages of advance preparation—of the policy analyst, the congressional environment, and the Member for voting—in the form of case studies.     

Innovating Science Policy: Restructuring S&T Policy for the Twenty-first Century1

Over the next twenty years, accelerating scientific and technical developments will spawn immense changes to society that can be both crucially beneficial and tragically destructive. This trend, principally occurring outside of government control, is both helping the United States to improve defense and economic security and producing threats to national security. To deal with these increasingly technical issues, the nation's leadership needs to be armed with considerable scientific and technological acumen. Hence, the United States should explore the creation of a national security science and technology (S&T) strategy that improves: (1) scientific analysis available to decision makers; (2) understanding of the S&T needed to maintain national security; (3) coordination and collaboration among S&T providers; (4) control of dangerous technologies; (5) technology prioritization and acquisition processes; and (6) the dialog on enhancing the application of the products of private sector and foreign research for American national security purposes. Policies that address these issues will have to achieve the difficult balance between government and scientists’ influence over research and development (R&D). This article explores how to better deliver technical advice to high-level decision makers, as a means to better deal with emerging threats that are enabled by the rapid innovation and proliferation of scientific knowledge throughout the world.     

Public Management Decision Making: Effects of Decision Content

One obvious aspect of public management decisions and decision making has largely escaped attention—decision content. We examine the effects of decision content by asking the following questions for budget cutback and information technology decisions: How does content affect the time required for decision making? How does content affect who participates? How does content affect the decision criteria employed? How does content affect the information quality used in the decision-making process and red tape? The results suggest that information technology and budget cutback decisions differ in important ways. For information technology decisions, cost-effectiveness is not a significant criterion, average decision time is much longer, and decisions are generally viewed as permanent and stable. For cutback decisions, cost-effectiveness is a significant criterion, decisions are made much more quickly, and they are viewed as unstable and changeable. Surprisingly, decision content does not appear to affect the number of participants.