This is not your parents' retirement: comparing retirement income across generations

This article examines how retirement income at age 67 is likely to change for baby boomers and persons born in generation X (GenX) compared with current retirees. We use the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) model to project retirement income and assets, poverty rates, and replacement rates for current and future retirees at age 67. We find that, in absolute terms, retirement incomes offuture cohorts will increase over time, and poverty rates will fall. However, projected income gains are larger for higher than for lower socioeconomic groups, leading to increased income inequality among future retirees. Finally, because postretirement incomes are not expected to rise as much as preretirement incomes, baby boomers and GenXers are less likely to have enough postretirement income to maintain their preretirement standard of living compared with current retirees.     

Projecting retirement income of future retirees with panel data: results from the modeling income in the near-term (MINT) project

Cross-sectional data capture only a point in time and miss individual changes in earnings, labor force participation, marriage, fertility, and health. Because panel data follow individuals over time, they do not have this problem. The problems or concerns with cross-sectional data may be compounded when these data are used to make projections. Iams and Sandell (1997) found that using panel data on earnings explained much more variation in future earnings than using cross-sectional survey data. Panel data are also needed to estimate Social Security benefits, especially for women. Because of auxiliary benefits paid to spouses, ex-spouses, and widow(er)s of entitled workers, an individual's Social Security retirement benefit depends not only on his or her earnings history, but also on his or her marital history and the earnings histories of current and previous spouses. When we compare projected unreduced Social Security benefits with what they would be if we didn't have marital history or earnings history data for men, we find that: Benefits computed using only earnings histories are not very different from benefits computed using both earnings and marital histories. Benefits computed using only current earnings and marital histories underestimate benefits for those in earlier birth cohorts and overestimate benefits for those in the most recent birth cohort. Benefits computed without either marital or earnings histories underestimate benefits for all birth cohorts, but by much more for earlier cohorts than for more recent cohorts. For women we find that benefits computed without marital or earnings histories underestimate benefits in all birth cohorts. The largest differences are for women in earlier birth cohorts. Using both marital and earnings histories to estimate unreduced Social Security benefits, we find that men are projected to continue receiving higher benefits than women, although the gap is expected to narrow as the baby boomers near retirement age. We also look at the composition of projected total income available at retirement for those with incomes in the 45th-55th percentiles of the income distribution and find that: Total income at retirement is projected to be larger for men than for women in every birth cohort. Women are projected to receive the largest share of their total income from Social Security benefits. Men are projected to receive the largest share of their total income from other income sources, although this share declines as the baby boomers near retirement age.     

Home equity conversion plans as a source of retirement income

This article describes in detail a variety of home equity conversion plans and discusses their relevance for social security beneficiaries, as well as for the aged in general. Under these plans, a dormant asset--accumulated home equity--is converted into current retirement income. The plans vary: Some are debt instruments; others involve the sale and leaseback of the residence. Some provide income for a fixed term; others offer a lifetime annuity. Some include a public subsidy; others are free of governmental involvement. The advantages and disadvantages of these plans, as well as examples of how they operate and their respective income potential, are discussed in this article. The relevance of home equity conversion plans for social security beneficiaries is illustrated by means of data from the Retirement History Study. These data allow comparison of various demographic groups in terms of their dependence on social security benefits. Each group is examined in terms of available home equity and home equity potential under several conversion plans.     

There is no free lunch: Unintended effects of the new military retirement system

In June 1986, the new Military Retirement Reform Act was signed into law with the intention of saving $2.9 billion in the 1986 accrual funding of the military retirement budget. This article provides an analysis of the potential effects of the new policy on personnel retention. It concludes that the losses of personnel due to the new retirement system are likely to be much larger than expected, the proportion of higher-quality personnel is likely to be reduced, and policies that can moderate these effects would dilute the intended future cost savings.     

Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject. Analyses of divorced women's economic well-being by major socioeconomic characteristics such as race and ethnicity and education are of particular interest. Such analyses can be supported by the MINT data system.     

Toward a new constitution for a future country

This paper outlines a preliminary radical plan for a constitution based primarily on recent contributions on mechanisms for choice of public goods and on constitutional rules and concepts, but based also on experience with present constitutions, corporate charters, and private arbitration procedures. It uses the standard economic perspective, disregarding such motives as herd instincts and the desire to serve the public interest. The result is markedly different from existing constitutions.     

Looking for a smoking gun: Committee jurisdictions and congressional voting decisions

The nature of jurisdictional boundaries of committees in the House of Representatives has received little scholarly attention. Recently, however, LaRue and Rothenberg (1992) focused specifically on this topic and concluded that for some legislators — namely, those involved in a jurisdictional dispute — jurisdictional issues were an important influence, above and beyond policy preferences, in determining votes. I expand on their analysis in an attempt to discover whether members who are not involved in such a dispute also seek to protect jurisdictional property rights. I find that these non-involved members werenot affected by the jurisdictional considerations.     

The effect of recent tax changes on taxable income: Evidence from a new panel of tax returns

This paper estimates the elasticity of taxable income to the net‐of‐tax share using a panel of tax returns that follows a random sample of taxpayers from 1999 to 2005, spanning the EGTRRA 2001 and JGTRRA 2003 tax changes. Results suggest that the elasticity of taxable income to the current year's net‐of‐tax share lies between 0.3 and 0.4 overall, and that the elasticity of a broader measure of income falls between 0.1 and 0.2 overall, with substantially higher elasticities for taxpayers reporting income in excess of $500,000. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Designing a tax incentive scheme: The case of a wage tip

Governments are constantly attempting to use their tax systems for purposes other than the collection of revenue. Each such use entails difficult decisions of both design and administration. Consideration of a tax-based policy that might reduce wage inflation—a so-called TIP—serves to reveal the wide range of difficult choices that need to be made. In addition to problems of measuring the behavior of the tax payer who is to be benefited or penalized, the analyst must settle on such questions as whether the program should be permanent or temporary, whether it should emphasize rewards or punishments, and whether it should be administered by existing government agencies or by special agencies. None of these problems is insuperable. But lurking behind all of them is the question whether, is the end, the chosen policy will actually contribute to reducing wage inflation.     

Japan's new electoral system:: la plus ça change . . .

We examine the impact on parties and candidates of Japan's new electoral rules, first used in the 1996 House of Representatives election. We argue that the Japanese rules, which not only permit dual candidacy but also allow votes cast in the single member district (SMD) portion of the race to allocate proportional representation (PR) seats to dual candidates, effectively defeat the purposes of electoral reform. The new arrangement transforms PR representatives into locally-based politicians who will rely on personalistic rather than party-based or programmatic campaigning, effectively converts single-member districts back into the multi-member districts of the past, enhances incumbency advantage, and will push the ratio of candidates to seats down as low or even lower than before.     

Designing policies that intentionally stick: policy feedback in a changing climate

Policy feedback is a widely used concept, but many who use it only focus on the positive and/or unintentional feedback effects of certain types of policy. The literature as a whole is therefore poorly equipped to make sense of the negative policy feedbacks that often appear in more regulatory areas such as climate change, where target groups are put under pressure to shoulder concentrated costs. Advocates of the ‘new’ policy design have an opportunity to address this gap by exploring how policy makers approach the design of policies that intentionally generate positive policy feedbacks and/or are resilient to negative ones. This paper contributes to that effort by identifying the conditions under which specific instrument designs are likely to have opportunity enhancing and/or constraining effects. It relates these expectations to a design situation where positive feedback seemed unlikely, and hence, the challenge of designing locked-in policies was correspondingly greater. It concludes by drawing on the findings of this exploratory case to investigate what the ‘new’ policy design can do better to explicate the temporal aspects of design.     

Public policy and employee ownership: Designing economic institutions for a good society

While there are many types of economic arrangements compatible with democratic institutions and smoothly functioning markets, the predominant institutional arrangement in most marked-based democracies is one where the average employee has neither a share of direct ownership nor involvement in governing the company where he works. The substance of this essay deals with recent American attempts to redesign this arrangement, focusing specifically on the employee stock ownership plan (ESOP). The way we design the ownership of our economic organizations touches issues at the heart of practical political economy. It combines the realities of practice with visions of the good society. The challenge for lawmakers, then, is to think of employee ownership not only in terms of the technical details of public policy-making but as an institutional arrangement with wide-ranging potential implications for how we see and achieve the good.