上海合作组织地区安全合作进程与前景分析

推动地区的安全合作曾经是上海合作组织诞生和发展的最主要动力之一.上海合作组织已经历了5年的发展历程,在上海合作组织的经济合作和人文合作提到重要的发展议程之后,安全合作不仅仍然是不可偏废的领域,而且还体现出了许多新的时代特点.本文通过分析上海合作组织安全合作发展的进程,比较各个不同时期的基本任务、突出问题和主要成果,在做出分阶段评估的前提下,对今后上海合作组织安全合作的远景进行宏观预测.     

联合国安理会席位之争--非洲的立场与前景

在安理会扩大问题上,非洲国家形成了共同立场,要求增加2个具有否决权的常任理事国和3个非常任理事国的席位。这一共同立场的形成有其历史渊源。共同立场再现了非洲国家在重大国际问题上保持一致的传统,表现出了非洲国家对现有国际秩序的抗争,表达了非洲国家希望在联合国发挥更大作用的愿望和对自身安全问题的严重关切。非洲的共同立场凸显出在非盟机制下的一致,其能否实现令国际社会密切关注。     

EU Security Policies and Their Prospects

EU security policies consist of two aspects. Internally, they involve behaviors among European states. Externally, they refer to EU policies towards other countries and regions. I. EU's internal security policies. Europe's integration has impact on EU's internal security policies. Today, it is impossible to have war or face military threats among EU members. After suffering countless wars, this achievement is by no means easy. The reason for this achievement is that we believe if traditional nation states can open their borders, conduct cooperation, and render part of their sovereign rights to an integration institution, they will coexist even more peacefully. In the past half a century, the internal security policies of the EU have worked, ensuring that Europe has not witnessed military conflicts any more.     

China＇s Engagement in African Security Cooperation： Evolution and Prospects

Although China began to engage in military cooperation with Africa quite soon after the founding of the People＇s Republic in 1949, there are as yet few articles on Sino-African security cooperation. Now, with a much closer security relationship between China and Africa, there is a need for more study of this issue. This article gives some idea of the evolution of Chinese engagement in African security cooperation and examines new opportunities for, and challenges to, a more active Chinese engagement in Africa in this domain.     

Managing Soft Security Threats: Current Progress and Future Prospects

This concluding essay explores the development of the concept of security since the end of the Cold War, in a world characterized by failing states, and the rise of non-state actors. It revisits the competing paradigms of ‘The End of History’ and ‘The Clash of Civilisations’ within globalization trends as a whole, and security in particular. Post September 11, 2001, the boundaries between hard and soft security have been blurred as the relationship between terrorism and illegal trade have become apparent.

The paper highlights three challenging processes of particular relevance for soft security: the still growing gap between rich and poor; the technological revolution; and the changing role of and attitudes to military force. Environmental, economic and population pressures elsewhere fuel the soft security threats in Europe, and the problems cannot be solved by improved policing or border mechanisms alone. Rather, the solution lies in treating them at a global level.     

非传统安全问题:中俄安全合作的新视角

随着经济全球化和信息化的加速发展,非传统安全问题已越来越有超越传统安全之势,成为国际社会关注的热点.中俄两国同时面临传统和非传统安全威胁的挑战,目前,两国尤其应从战略高度加大政治和外交资源投入,积极应对迅速增大的非传统安全挑战,并共同寻求建立应对这种挑战与威胁的有效机制.双方在此领域的合作已取得一定进展,今后的合作将具有更广阔的空间与前景.     

安全维度转向:人的安全

人类安全观念正经历着急剧的变革,由联合国提出的“人的安全”新概念,打破了以国家为中心的传统安全观,预示着国际政治安全维度的人文转向。国家可能成为维护安全的主要手段,而不再是维护安全的最终目的。人的安全将人及其群体置于安全保障的核心,强调“免于匮乏”和“免于恐惧”的自由,保护人的生命和尊严不受侵犯。尽管人的安全这一概念现在还存有争议,但不容忽视的是,人的安全正在获得越来越多的国家和国际组织的支持和认同,并在外交实践中取得了显著进展。     

新世纪亚太安全形势分析与展望

21世纪亚太的安全问题 ,是当前亚太各国和地区关注的重点 ,它关系到未来亚太地区发展与稳定。本文从三个层面分析当代亚太安全的形势 ,即 :美国与亚太安全问题、朝核问题对亚太安全的影响、中国在维护亚太安全问题上的作用以及与此相关的思考。     

The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis

Critically building upon the work of Herbert Butterfield, John Herz, and Robert Jervis, this article advances a more rigorous definition of the security dilemma. It demonstrates critical implications of the rigorously redefined concept. It examines several influential extensions and expansions of the original concept, showing that most have been inaccurate and misleading, and proposes remedies for correcting the mistakes. Finally, it identifies several areas of future research that may yield important new insights into the dynamics of the security dilemma.     

中韩安全关系的现状及前景展望

中韩建交15年来,在传统安全和非传统安全领域均建立了良好的合作关系,为两国关系的全面发展发挥了积极作用。但是,由于复杂的历史和现实原因,两国安全关系的发展还相当缓慢,远远落后于两国政治、经济关系的发展。展望未来,由于中韩已经建立了"全面合作伙伴关系",两国安全关系的发展潜力巨大,可望从建立军方高层会谈机制、军事教育交流机制、互相观察演习及进一步加强非传统安全领域的合作等多个层面,全面推进两国安全关系的深化发展。     

High Hopes and Limited Prospects: Washington's Security and Nation-Building Aims in Afghanistan

Four years have passed since the United States and allied governments toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and began security and nation-building operations. Despite the continuing deployment of thousands of Western troops and the expenditure of billions of dollars in foreign aid, current conditions in Afghanistan are perilous. Poverty is rampant, the drug trade has shown no sign of decline, warlords remain in power, and the Taliban continues to confront US and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation forces. With the US preparing to reduce its troop presence in 2006 and NATO poised to deploy forces into Afghanistan's dangerous southern provinces, Western security and nation-building efforts are at risk of failure.     

Security Governance and Networks: New Theoretical Perspectives in Transatlantic Security

The end of the Cold War has not only witnessed the rise of new transnational threats such as terrorism, crime, proliferation and civil war; it has also seen the growing role of non-state actors in the provision of security in Europe and North America. Two concepts in particular have been used to describe these transformations: security governance and networks. However, the differences and potential theoretical utility of these two concepts for the study of contemporary security have so far been under-examined. This article seeks to address this gap. It proposes that security governance can help to explain the transformation of Cold War security structures, whereas network analysis is particularly useful for understanding the relations and interactions between public and private actors in the making and implementation of national and international security policies.     

北约介入阿富汗战争前景浅析

北约介入阿富汗战争是其走出地区实践全球化职能的一次大规模行动。北约联军现已深陷阿富汗战争泥潭,急欲寻找出路。然而,尽管北约成员国正按盟主美国的退出战略积极行动,试图采用政治、经济、军事手段并举的方式,在完成战略安排后从阿富汗全身而退,但阿富汗问题已经积重难返,不可能在短期内解决。北约联军在阿富汗的民心取向、阿富汗政府的治理能力、阿富汗安全部队的素质,以及北约在阿富汗的撤军时间表及相关的过渡性安排,均存在不利因素或不确定因素,这使得北约联军的阿富汗战争将无取胜可能,只是争取体面撤军问题。     

双层次博弈理论:内在逻辑及其评价

在国际关系研究中 ,美国学者罗伯特·普特南提出的双层次博弈理论旨在分析国际谈判过程中国际政治和国内政治何时和如何发生互动。它假定首要的谈判者在国际和国内两个棋盘上进行互相关联的博弈 ,并且把国际谈判区分为谈判和批准两个阶段 ,认为后者是两个层面之间关键的理论联系。双层次博弈理论还强调政府首脑能够通过采取一定的策略来扩大或者缩小获胜集合。双层次博弈理论具有重要的理论和方法意义 ,但是这个理论也有一定的局限性。     

Cantankerous Cooperation: Democracies,Authoritarian Regimes,and the Prisoner's Dilemma

One of the most important debates in the field of international relations is over the effect of regime type on militarized conflict. This debate, however, has rarely extended to how regime type influences other aspects of foreign policy. Using a computer simulated intergroup prisoner's dilemma, we investigate whether democratic decisionmaking groups are more cooperative than authoritarian decisionmaking groups. We argue that differences between cooperation tendencies of groups can be explained by the structure of the decision process. Repeated simulations show that democracies tend to be more consistent in their decisions in comparison to authoritarian groups. Implications for international relations theory and policy are discussed.     

欧美关系的新变化及前景

当前欧美关系与布什时期相比出现了一些新动向,其中最重要的变化是,美国外交政策"向欧洲大幅靠拢",欧洲国家政府和民众"全面亲美".跨大西洋关系重新焕发生机和活力,是欧美双方因各自实力下降而产生的内在需求与国际格局发生深刻变化所带来的外部压力相互作用的结果.未来欧美关系不大可能出现布什时期的剧烈震荡,将较为平稳、协调.但欧美关系中的一些制约性因素并未消除,"新跨大西洋联盟"建设也难以一帆风顺,在经贸、金融等领域,双方的矛盾和竞争性关系可能会有进一步发展.     

Maritime Security in East Asia and Prospects for U.S.-China Cooperation

As China and the United States explore how to craft a ＂new type＂ .or ＂new model＂ of bilateral relations, a key challenge will be deepening cooperation on a series of shared security issues. Alongside problems on the Korean Peninsula, cyber security, and other matters, is preserving peace and stability in East Asia＇s maritime regions, especially in the context of ongoing disputes in the Yellow, East China, and South China seas.     

特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理及前景研判

2017年的朝核危机实质上是特朗普政府实施边缘政策而带来的一场危机,即,通过极限施压迫使朝鲜在战争和让步之间做出选择,以推动半岛无核化进程。然而,特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理因朝鲜的外交对冲、美国国内政治因素的制约以及国际合作的缺失使双方谈判陷入僵局,美国国内甚至出现是否会默认朝鲜有核的争论。若要真正推动朝鲜半岛无核化取得实质性进展,特朗普政府的现实方案仍是设定有限目标,并由联合国安理会制定可逆条款,约束美朝不信守承诺的行为,以国际社会的担保减少美朝互信缺失带来的消极影响,加快推进半岛无核化的和平进程。