Unemployment Risks and the Origins of Unemployment Compensation

This paper focuses on the distribution of sectoral unemployment risks and the role of political regimes in the foundational moments of unemployment compensation. The institutionalization of unemployment compensation is a function of two factors. First, it depends on the distribution of unemployment risks by economic sectors. Second, the effect of risk inequality is conditional upon the political regime type. I employ event history analysis of 144 countries throughout the world for the long historical period from 1880 to 2000. The results show that an overall societal level of unemployment risk and inequality of sectoral unemployment risks in a society are positively associated with the likelihood of the institutionalization of unemployment compensation. In addition, the effect of risk inequality is much higher under democracy than under dictatorship. A broader implication is that the creation of unemployment compensation is not only a function of homogeneous working class power but also a function of working class conflict that stems from the heterogeneity of unemployment risks among workers.     

Unemployment and suicidal behavior in a New Zealand birth cohort: a fixed effects regression analysis

This study examined the association between exposure to unemployment and suicidal behaviors (suicidal ideation and attempted suicide) in a birth cohort of New Zealand young adults using fixed-effects logistic and Poisson regression models. Data were gathered on unemployment and suicidal behaviors at annual periods from ages 16-25 years. At all ages increasing exposure to unemployment was associated with increased risks of suicidal ideation (p < .0001) and number of suicide attempts (p < .0001). Following adjustment for fixed effects and time-dynamic covariates, associations between unemployment and suicidal ideation reduced to marginal significance (p < .10), while the association between unemployment and suicide attempts was not statistically significant (p > .10). After adjustment, those experiencing 6 or more months of unemployment in a given year had odds of suicidal ideation that were 1.43 (95% CI: .96 to 2.16) times higher, and rates of suicide attempts that were 1.72 (95% CI: .89 to 3.32) times higher, than those who were not exposed to unemployment. Although unemployment was associated with moderate increases in risks of suicidal behaviors, much of this association was explained by confounding factors.     

Determinants of Personal Income Taxes for Barbados

The purpose of this study was to identify determinants of personal income taxes in Barbados and, using the Engle-Granger two-step procedures with annual data from 1976 to 2008, ascertain how these variables would impact on the dependent variable in the long and short run. The study showed that in the long run, the variables that would impact upon personal income tax receipts were marginal tax rate, real per capita income, and the rate of unemployment, while in the short run, personal income taxes were affected by current real per capita income in addition to lagged values of real per capita income, the marginal tax rate, and the rate of unemployment, respectively.     

New horizons in pharmaceutical technology.

The benefits they provide have contributed toward making drugs the most commonly used treatment modality. Although drugs account for less than 10 percent of all health care expenditures, their total costs can be substantial when one considers the impact of adverse effects as well as the problems resulting from misprescribing and misuse. The 1980s will see the introduction of a large number and variety of new drugs and new ways of delivering drugs to the body. The goals of these developments include increased effectiveness, decreased seriousness and frequency of adverse effects, and less complicated dosing regimes. This new technology raises questions regarding the optimal prescribing, distribution, financing, and use of these new drugs. It is also important to consider what actions should be taken to assure that continued growth in drug technology will occur and that this growth be directed toward the development of drugs that offer significant advantages over existing therapies. Rational policy must consider not only the costs of drugs themselves but also the potential for drugs to reduce the overall cost of health care.     

1992: THE ILLUSION OF CHANGE

Despite all the recent publicity surrounding the benefits of a 'Europe without frontiers' it would be wrong to assume that the attainment of this goal is a foregone conclusion. The 1992 deadline is a political expedient designed to create the impression that European economic integration is an irreversible process. However, the reality is that there is still a long way to go before Europe is truly 'open for business'. Barriers to trade will remain despite the enthusiasm of the Commission for radical change, because it is the member states who finally decide on the shape of new initiatives. In order to achieve agreement compromises have to be made, and this reduces the impact of reforms. The measures taken to complete that internal market of the EC can become exercises in harmonization rather than significant reforms which offer direct benefits to business. This article is concerned with one such exercise in harmonization, the introduction of the Single Administrative Document ( sad ).     

Trade,Technology and Employment in South Africa

South Africa has become increasingly integrated with the global economy since the early 1990s and particularly after the ending of apartheid. However this has not been associated with increased employment and high levels of unemployment are a major economic and social problem. The paper considers the impact of trade and technological change on both the level and skill composition of manufacturing employment. First a Chenery-type decomposition analysis of employment change is carried out and then labour demand functions are estimated econometrically. Both trade and technology are found to have had a negative impact on employment but these are only partial explanations of the low rate of employment growth.     

The performance of Illinois' unemployment insurance system over business cycles

The back-to-back recessions of the early 1980's drove Illinois and most other states deep into debt to the Federal government for their unemployment insurance systems. As part of the process of debt repayment, Illinois created a model of the state's unemployment insurance (UI) system to analyze legislation geared to debt repayment. This paper describes Illinois' UI forecasting model, and examines two uses of the model for UI system evaluation. Illinois' system is found to be solvent, as it accumulates little or no debt over severe business cycles and repays debt automatically. It is also found to be counter-cyclical, as benefits increase during recessions, and tax rates tend to increase at times of low unemployment.     

The labour market and income distribution in post-socialist economies – Non-obvious regularities

The goal of this paper is to analyse the major processes which took place on the labour market of post-socialist economies and to check what the outcomes of thee mechanisms used for income distribution. Few findings are especially interesting because of its counterintuitive character. First, there is a “strange” relation between the depth of recession and scale of rise in unemployment. Countries which suffered from quite moderate fall in GDP experienced high level of unemployment, while the economies which noticed substantial recession were able to sustain very limited unemployment rate. One can also expect that economy which suffered from sharp rise in unemployment should be the one in which income inequalities deteriorate in the biggest extend. Again, this is not what has happened in post-socialist countries. Economies like Russia or Ukraine which noticed quite limited rise in unemployment rates, experienced the highest deterioration in the income inequalities indicators. Finally, closer look at labour markets of EU New Member states shows that social cohesion in these countries is a much bigger problem than it appears from simple Gini coefficients.     

THE NEW SYSTEM OF LOCAL TAXATION IN SCOTLAND: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE

This article examines the new system of Scottish local government finance in theory and practice. It argues that reform is based on an economic theory of local fiscal behaviour, and examines the empirical evidence regarding the application of marginal cost pricing principles through the linking of marginal spending to taxation. The research reveals that the application of such principles in practice will be difficult, as only a few services offer direct benefits to all individuals, and as yet the technical precision needed in assessing needs for grant distribution has not materialized. There is little evidence of any impact of financial reform on local expenditure, as a number of intervening variables and assumptions can skew the accountability process.     

TRANSFORMING SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS ADMINISTRATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: TOWARDS ONE-STOP SERVICES AND THE CLIENT GROUP PRINCIPLE?

The creation of the new Social Security Benefits Agency in 1991 coincided with the final installation in local offices of the first Operational Strategy computer systems, which automated large parts of social security benefits administration. Since then the agency has refocused its strategic thinking towards a ten-year development programme which is centred around plans for'one-stop'benefits delivery. The article shows why this programme is dependent on'informatization'- the generation from, and application to, social security administration of new kinds of information, made possible by information and communications technologies ( ict s). It assesses the feasibility and implications of informatizing benefits administration and the likely effects of continuing pressures to reduce administrative costs. It argues that, whilst the agency will become more customer focused, the practical outcomes are likely to be two-edged for claimants. At a policy level, informatization will reinforce political pressures to rationalize and target the benefits system, especially if information-management problems are controlled by a shift to the client group principle.     

GOVERNMENT LEGITIMACY AND THE LABOUR MARKET: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGES

This article addresses the recent claim that cross-national policy variations reflect in part differences in institutional origins and state characteristics. It provides a detailed analysis of how states institutionalized public employment exchanges. The authors argue that public employment exchanges will shape the legitimacy of government intervention in the labour market, and thus affect the environment for subsequent labour market policy. Two measures of legitimacy are used. First, the attitude of employers and trades unionists toward exchanges. Second, the role of exchanges in administering unemployment benefits. Cross-national differences in exchanges' legitimacy contribute to an explanation of why different states have different labour market policies.     

Planning, Performance And Public Services

The policies of the Labour government in the UK place renewed emphasis on rational planning in the public sector. The government’s assumption is that this approach to decision making will lead to improvements in performance. Although the theoretical costs and benefits of rational planning have been widely debated in the public administration literature, no systematic empirical research on the impact of planning on the performance of public organizations has been conducted. By contrast, the relationship between rational planning and the success of private firms has been investigated extensively. A meta‐analysis and critical review of this evidence suggests that planning is generally associated with superior performance. However, important questions remain unresolved. For example, under what circumstances does planning work best, and which elements of planning are most important? Therefore, although it may be appropriate to encourage public agencies to consider carefully the potential benefits of planning, rational processes should not be imposed upon them.     

Overview of economy-wide nafta models

In the recent debate about the costs and benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), both proponents and opponents used the empirical results of several economic models to support their arguments. Most of the quantitative estimates were provided by computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are part of the growing literature known as applied general equilibrium.

The CGE model is a powerful tool that can make important contributions to policy debates. Compared to other approaches, CGE models rest on a relatively more solid theoretical foundation. However, the numerical analysis has to be interpreted properly. Quantitative estimates are highly tentative and contingent on the assumptions of the models. Thus, estimates should not be interpreted as predictions but rather as providing some indication of the direction of the various economic changes induced by a certain policy change.

This paper provides an overview of the CGE approach, and of its application to NAFTA. After outlining how a CGE model works, it reviews some of the quantitative results of CGE models used to assess the impact of NAFTA. The paper is intended for an audience not trained in economics.     

Simulating commercial policy in a small,open dual economy with urban unemployment: A general equilibrium approach

A two‐sector numerical general equilibrium model calibrated on Kenyan data is used to consider second‐best tariff policy in an economy with a distorted market for urban‐industrial labour and urban unemployment. The results illustrate the sensitivity of second‐best policy to the way the administered urban wage is determined (whether it is fixed primarily in terms of food or the manufactured good), and to the degree of inter‐sectoral mobility of capital. Efficiency gains from moving to a second‐best policy are shown to be small in comparison with the gains from eliminating the wage distortion in the first place.     

Industrial development in the Brazilian Northeast and the tax credit scheme of article 34/18 1

In this article we consider a twofold problem: (a) the foreign aid cost of changing a stagnant or ‘trapped’ economy to one which is capable of sustaining its own growth, and (b) the accrued benefits of a family planning programme in achieving this. Specifically, we cite the case of an economy trapped in a so‐called low‐level equilibrium and evaluate the change in the amount of foreign aid that is required to achieve self‐sustained growth when the birth rate declines. By use of a simplified model, we conclude that a general 10 per cent reduction in age‐specific birth‐rates may lead to savings of 2 5–50 per cent in discounted aid requirements.     

Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate

This concluding article returns to the broad question that motivates this special issue ofStudies in Comparative International Development: Will the Digital Revolution constitute a revolution in development? In addressing this issue, we explore a number of common themes emphasized by the different contributions: the future of the North-South divide, the role of the state in promoting digital development, the transferability and adaptability of specific information and communication technologies, the challenges and potential benefits of controlling digital information, and the developmental effects of digitally enabled communities. We argue that the Digital Revolution's ultimate impact on development will depend on several key variables, including the extent to which these technologies foster within-country linkages among different sectors and socioeconomic classes; the degree to which new technological applications may be customized or transformed to advance local development; and the outcome of political contests between organized interests that are promoting different ways of organizing and governing the global digital economy. While it is difficult to fully assess a transformation while living in the midst of it, research on the social, political, and economic implications of the Digital Revolution will constitute an important agenda for development scholars in the years to come.     

Simulated impact of an industrial electrical rate reduction on the pittsburgh region

The City of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County have electrical rates which are approximately 20-23 percent above the national average and are among the highest in the U.S. The following report examines the potential impact on the Pittsburgh Region of an industrial electrical rate reduction of 15 percent in Allegheny County. Simulations show that the reduction will slow the rate of decline in manufacturing employment and cause modest increases in employment growth in other sectors of the local economy. However, the rate reduction will have almost no impact on real disposable income per capita in the Region and will also have no recession dampening effect on the Region when the nation experiences a 10 percent, two-year decline in the demand for all durable goods. All simulations are run using the 1994 Pittsburgh REMI Model.     

International Migration: Pacifier or Trigger for Military Conflicts?

Whereas the impact of trade relations on conflict has been studied extensively, this is not the case for the impact of international migration. The latter might influence the size of expected costs and benefits, and hence the likelihood of military conflict between countries. In this paper, we discuss the channels through which bilateral migration can affect the prevalence of interstate military conflict. We then estimate migration’s impact on conflict using bilateral panel data between 1960–2000. We find evidence of a positive and robust impact of South-North and South-South migration on the occurrence of conflict. These effects are even larger when we control for potential endogeneity using a GMM approach.     

Foreign capital inflow and the output growth rate of the recipient country: One‐sector models compared

One of the main issues in the controversy about the desirability of the inflow of foreign capital in LDCs refers to the impact which this capital might have on the output growth rate of the recipient countries. In the first part of this paper we analyze the impact of foreign capital on the growth rate in the context of a savings constrained growth model with neo‐classical technology. In the second part, we study the impact of foreign capital on the growth rate under balance‐of‐payments constrained growth. Two main conclusions are: under neoclassical conditions, foreign capital will have a positive impact on the growth rate of domestic income as long as it grows at a rate higher than the product of the domestic saving rate by the profit rate required by foreign capitalists. Under balance‐of‐payments constrained growth, the growth rate of foreign capital needs to be higher than its own profit rate in order to have a positive impact on the growth rate of territorial income, if foreign trade parameters of overseas and domestic firms are identical.     

The structure of employment and structural adjustment in the Philippines

Growth in the 1970s seemed, at that time, to have brought the Philippines to a rather high equilibrium growth path. But the foreign debt and political crisis in the early and mid‐1980s had brought the economy down to a lower equilibrium path. The recovery years (1987 to 1990) did not prove to be sustainable, given the extreme debt overhang, so that the economy retreated once again to the lower equilibrium path in the early 1990s. Significant debt reduction schemes and the new inflows (remittances of overseas workers and rising foreign investments) allowed a new growth trend. Whether sufficient growth can be maintained in the medium and long term will depend to a large part on uncontrollable external conditions. Significant improvements in trade and industrial policies are needed so that external deficits and imports will finance those sectors that allow for creation of high quality employment. Policy will have to shift resources away from the trade, real estate and other service sectors to strong tradeable manufactures. If the Philippines cannot get out of the boom—bust cycle, labour productivity in the medium and long term will stagnate and the share of those employed in the total labour force will remain stable, leading to stagnating employment opportunities and worsening income distribution.