Evaluating the effectiveness of policies related to drunk driving

New findings are presented on the effectiveness (in terms of fatal crash reductions) of state‐level public policies related to drunk driving. Conventional estimates of policy effects might be biased because of the endogeneity of policies; this concern is addressed by analyzing the time pattern of policy effects with respect to the date of adoption. For the 0.08 BAC law, the results suggest that a bias upward exists, but the policy is still somewhat effective. Graduated licensing programs for young drivers and the Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) organization are also evaluated for the first time in this type of analysis. The estimated time pattern of effects for graduated licensing suggest that its effects are also overstated in conventional analyses, but the policy is still effective for young drivers. The estimates for MADD do not imply an effect, but this result could be due to the crudeness of the variable used. © 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The feasibility of social policies

The notion that, given sufficient ingenuity and resources, any social problem can be solved, in a manner consistent with the announced policy objectives and with the accepted institutional framework, has been a major source of failures and frustrations. This paper suggests that policy analysis should concentrate on the investigation of the conditions of feasibility of public programs. Feasibility is defined in terms of all the relevant constraints: social, political, administrative, and institutional, as well as technical and economic. The emphasis on the pure logic of choice and optimal decision rules, so characteristic of normative theorizing in decision theory, management science, and welfare economics, has tended to obscure the fact that in the field of social policies, the range of feasible choices is severely limited by a variety of constraints. Most bad decisions are not just suboptimal; on closer examination, it usually turns out that they were not even feasible at the time they were made. Only by understanding the reasons why, under certain circumstances, a given goal cannot be achieved, can we hope to gain better knowledge about the working of social institutions. Just as the essence of the scientific method is the critical analysis and refutation of proposed theories, rather than the accumulation of evidence in favor of pet solutions, so the most important task of policy analysis consists in submitting plans and objectives to the most stringent tests of feasibility. Also in analytic case studies, the search for constraints that were ignored by the decisionmakers has considerable heuristic value, as I try to demonstrate with a critical discussion of some aspects of the British National Health Service.Paper presented at the Workshop on Models and Cases in Administration Decision Making, Joint Sessions of Workshops of the European Consortium for Political Research, Strasbourg, France, March 28–April 2, 1974.     

The efficiency of regulatory arbitrage

Public Choice - Classic public choice skepticism about the regulatory state, based on theories of rent-seeking, rent extraction and regulatory capture, is based on the unrealistic, and usually...     

中国边疆民族政策的实证调查

边疆多民族地区的经济建设和社会发展,是政府主导型的一个社会进程,中国政府在这个过程中承担着重大的政治责任和社会责任。本文通过对中国政府在边疆多民族地区经济、社会领域若干政策的回顾,以及对边疆多民族地区社会现状的调查,指出长期以来“效率优先”的改革思想,地方政府“效率单边独追”的畸形发展方式与中央政府“民族主义”的政策导向,是造成边疆地区对中央政府政策认同度低的重要原因。     

The effectiveness of weapon system acquisition reform efforts

Most Americans believe that their nation's weapon acquisition system is one of the worst-managed activities in the public or private sectors. Although the process has been the subject of many reform efforts, it is reasonable to ask whether these reform efforts had any success. This article examines the effectiveness of such reforms by reviewing the results of the acquisition process. This analysis, using measures of the extent of cost growth and schedule slippage, indicates a trend toward improvement in the acquisition process, at least up to the 1980s. Acquisition results from the decade of the 1980s suggest some stalling in this trend. However, when the process is compared to other public and private sector acquisition systems, it appears to be performing well.     

The sense and the nonsense of school effectiveness

Hanushek misinterprets the data on which he bases his conclusion and draws inappropriate policy implications from them. The goals of a school system affect how its resources are used. Educational goals are highly diverse. Accordingly, the measures of output used in Hanushek's studies are inappropriate. To develop more effective measures, the nature of the teaching and learning process must be much better understood. Fortunately, a solid beginning has already been made among specialists in education on that critical task; but more work is needed.     

Status versus growth: The distributional effects of school accountability policies

Although the federal No Child Left Behind program judges the effectiveness of schools based on their students' achievement status, many policy analysts argue that schools should be measured, instead, by their students' achievement growth. Using a 10‐year student‐level panel data set from North Carolina, we examine how school‐specific pressure associated with status and growth approaches to school accountability affect student achievement at different points in the prior‐year achievement distribution. Achievement gains for students below the proficiency cut point emerge in schools failing either type of accountability standard, with the effects clearer for math than for reading. In contrast to prior research highlighting the possibility of educational triage, we find little or no evidence that failing schools in North Carolina ignore the students far below proficiency under either approach. Importantly, we find that the status, but not the growth, approach reduces the reading achievement of higher performing students. Our analysis suggests that the distributional effects of accountability pressure depend not only on the type of pressure for which schools are held accountable (status or growth), but also the tested subject. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Preservation policies in perspective

Abstract

This paper looks at the housing stock serving low‐income households and provides recommendations for future analysis and action. It concludes that too little attention is being paid to preserving the stock of unassisted units affordable by very low‐income families. This stock has shrunk in recent years, while the number of poverty‐level families has increased. Several recommendations for action by local governments are enumerated. Moreover, while much attention is focused on preserving projects developed under early federal assistance programs, policies for preserving units developed under the Section 8 program are needed to preserve owners’ incentives for maintaining these projects. Additionally, preservation issues must be considered in designing any new production programs. The paper outlines one option for a new program with a radically simplified financing structure.     

The contribution of beneficiary participation to development project effectiveness

Criticism of development projects is widespread, and blame for disappointing results is cast in many directions. One line of criticism which has become quite strong in the recent development literature is that development projects are too top-down and need to be more bottom-up (e.g. Maguire, 1981). Projects should involve more participation by beneficiaries. In fact, some would argue that real development, by definition, must involve beneficiaries in their own improvement (e.g. Gran, 1983a,b). Without participation the people may benefit but not develop from a project. Thus participation has intrinsic value. As the recognition of the value of public, popular, beneficiary, or community participation has increased, so has the range of what is meant by participation. Some authors have expanded the concept to mean empowerment and capacity-building, sometimes including institution-building. In this paper we do not attempt to redefine participation per se. but aim instead to make an inventory of the principal concepts that have evolved in the literature so far, elicit a general model of participatory development projects, deduce the central implicit hypotheses from this literature on the relationship between participation and project effectiveness, and statistically test these hypotheses from the empirical evidence provided by AID'S series of 52 Impact Evaluation Reports. Our major question is how much does beneficiary participation contribute to project effectiveness?     

The effectiveness of savings and loan political action committees

In recent years, political action committees (PACs) have played an increasingly important role, both in contributing to candidates and in influencing voting patterns. Savings and loan PACs are numerous throughout the country and consist of PACs affiliated with individual institutions and trade associations. The question which is addressed in this research paper is the effectiveness which savings and loan related PACs have had on influencing voting patterns. Because of savings and loan allegiance to the real estate industry, voting patterns on a selected set of nine cogressional bills pertaining to various facets of real estate are used to test PAC effectiveness. These bills were voted on by the House of Representatives during the 1978–80 congressional term. A twenty-one simultaneous equation model which employs probit transformations, maximum likelihood estimation procedures, and two stage least squares, is built to test relationships among the endogenous variables of congressional votes, electoral margin, PAC contributions, and constituent and congressional ideology. In addition to testing the effectiveness of savings and loan PAC contributions, the results of the study shed light on savings and loan PAC performance relative to that of real estate PACs, labor PACs, home builder PACs, business PACs, and other PAC groupings. The model is also used to identify some determinants of PAC contribution patterns. As a related issue, the role of ideology as a predictor of voting patterns is re-examined. Findings indicate that savings and loan PACs have only been marginally successful in influencing real estate voting patterns when compared to the other PAC groups. Results also indicate that few variables could be identified as determinants of savings and loan contributions, whereas other more established PACs had determinants which were consistently significant. Overall, findings imply that PAC contribution procedures of the savings and loan industry could benefit by imitating or purchasing the expertise of more experienced PAC groups.     

Information disclosure in elections with sequential costly participation

Public Choice - Using a pivotal costly voting model of elections in which voters privately have formed preferences over two candidates and act sequentially, I study how different rules for...