Voter perceptions of coalition policy positions in multiparty systems

A growing body of research shows how voters consider coalition formation and policy compromises at the post-electoral stage when making vote choices. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how voters perceive policy positions of coalition governments. Using new survey data from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES), we study voter perceptions of coalition policy platforms. We find that voters do in general have reasonable expectations of the coalitions' policy positions. However, partisan beliefs and uncertainty affect how voters perceive coalition positions: in addition to projection biases similar to those for individual party placements, partisans of coalition parties tend to align the position of the coalition with their own party's policy position, especially for those coalitions they prefer the most. In contrast, there is no consistent effect of political knowledge on the voters' uncertainty when evaluating coalition policy positions.     

Voter responses to refugee arrivals: Effects of settlement policy

In this paper we leverage a sudden shift in refugee settlement policy to study the electoral consequences of refugee settlements. After the 2013 Norwegian parliamentary election, the newly elected right-wing government made a concerted effort to spread newly arrived immigrants across the country, with the consequence that some municipalities with limited experience in settling refugees accepted to do so. We propose that such policy changes have political consequences, increasing the salience of immigration issues and shifting voters’ preferences to the right. We further propose that successful refugee integration can move (parts of) the electorate to the left, with stronger political polarization as a possible effect of the policy change. Applying difference-in-differences techniques, we find no evidence of unidirectional shifts in voter sentiments, but support for the hypothesis of stronger political polarization.     

Using Experiments to Estimate the Effects of Education on Voter Turnout

The powerful relationship between education and voter turnout is arguably the most well-documented and robust finding in American survey research. Yet the causal interpretation of this relationship remains controversial, with many authors suggesting that the apparent link between education and turnout is spurious. In contrast to previous work, which has relied on observational data to assess the effect of education on voter turnout, this article analyzes two randomized experiments and one quasi-experiment in which educational attainment was altered exogenously. We track the children in these experiments over the long term, examining their voting rates as adults. In all three studies, we find that exogenously induced changes in high school graduation rates have powerful effects on voter turnout rates. These results imply that the correlation between education and turnout is indeed causal. We discuss some of the pathways by which education may transmit its influence.     

Is There Backlash to Social Pressure? A Large-scale Field Experiment on Voter Mobilization

Using social pressure to mobilize voters has generated impressive increases in turnout (Gerber et al. Am Polit Sci Rev 102:33–48, 2008). However, voters may have negative reactions to social pressure treatments that reduce their effectiveness. Social psychologists have observed this ‘reactance’ to persuasive pressure about other behavior, but it has been overlooked in voter mobilization. Using a large-scale field experiment, we find treatments designed to reduce reactance are just as effective as heavy-handed social pressure treatments in mobilizing voters. The success of gentler social pressure treatments should make the use of social pressure more palatable to voter mobilization organizations.     

When the chickens come home to roost: The long-term impact of party positions on religious voting

Despite the widespread secularisation of West European societies, research has only found mixed evidence of a decline in the influence of religion on people's electoral preferences. A relatively recent line of inquiry has adopted a ‘top-down’ approach to this problem, arguing that the impact of religion not only depends on structural social changes, but also on parties’ convergence on moral issues. Drawing upon this ‘top-down’ approach and the ‘impressionable years’ model, this article argues that parties’ political strategies aimed at (de-)mobilising social cleavages have a lasting effect on voters’ party preferences. Using nine rounds of the European Social Survey for 19 West European countries, I find the impact of religiosity on voting for the centre-right (Conservative and Christian Democratic parties) to be significantly smaller for voters who were exposed during emerging adulthood (aged 15–25) to a centre-right party that adopted similar positions on moral issues to those of its main competitors. These findings have important implications because they highlight the role of generational replacement in bringing about electoral change, even when this is prompted by parties’ strategic choices.     

The programme to policy linkage: The fulfilment of election pledges on socio–economic policy in The Netherlands, 1986–1998

To what extent are the contents of party election programmes congruent with subsequent government policy actions? Existing research on the fulfilment of pre–election pledges focuses on systems of government in which executives formed by a single parties are the norm. This study extends this research to coalition systems of government. Specific policy proposals made by the main Dutch parties in their recent election programmes are identified and compared with subsequent government policy actions. Hypotheses about the conditions under which pledges are more likely to be acted upon are formulated and tested. Although clear linkages between election programmes and subsequent policies are found, pledges made by prospective coalition parties in the Netherlands are less likely to be acted upon than those made by prospective governing parties in the United Kingdom. Prominent features of cabinet government, such as the allocation of ministerial portfolios and the coalition policy agreement, are found to influence the likelihood of pledges being fulfilled. In addition, consensus between parties is also found to increase the likelihood of government actions responding to election pledges.     

当代中国地方政府政策资源开发的有效性与责任性研究

地方政府政策资源开发既要与中央和上级政府政策精神保持一致,又要不断进行政策创新,注重处理好政策资源开发和利用的有效性与责任性问题.     

Coalition formation on major policy dimensions: The Council of the European Union 1998 to 2004

Using data of contested decisions in the Council of the European Union, combined with data on the position of member states on the left-right and support for European integration dimensions, this paper provides an overview of winning coalitions formed in the council in the 1998 to 2004 time span. It shows distance between the combined policy positions of winning coalitions to individual EU states within these coalitions and demonstrates that most winning coalitions in the Council have a large combined voting weight, minimal winning coalitions are rare, and ideological connectedness plays a much smaller role than expected.     

公共政策执行与党的执政能力研究

公共政策执行是政策过程的中心环节,是实现政策目标,解决政策问题以及实现社会公共资源权威性分配的主要途径。公共政策执行与加强党的执政能力建设之间存在着内在的逻辑关联性。公共政策执行中的制约因素对于党的执政能力同样构成制约与影响。公共政策执行中加强党的执政能力建设的路径选择,应当考虑从以下几个方面展开:首先,提升政策执行中的社会资本存量;其次,加强政策执行中的强制性制度变迁或供给;再次,充分发挥政策执行中的民间组织的作用,促进执政党与公民社会的良性互动。     

Homeland security and citizen response to emergency situations: a perspective on the need for a policy approach to information access

Open access to public information is a hallmark of American political culture; however, the terrorist attacks on and before September 11, 2001 have prompted a reevaluation of how “freedom of information” should be balanced against the need for enhanced homeland security. This essay begins with a summary of legislative and executive actions that have led to restriction of environmental and health-related information formerly available to the public. Drawing on studies of disaster behavior, it is argued that citizen responders may be significantly hampered by restriction of environmental and public health-related information formerly available by means of public access web sites. The Lasswellian policy decision process is examined to explore the basis for a balancing test for agencies contemplating restriction of information related to environmental and public health-related threats. It is suggested that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) implement guidance for federal agencies in weighing decisions concerning the public status of information.

Preparing members of congress to make binary decisions on complex policy issues: The 1986 tax reform bill

Throughout 1985 and 1986, the House Committee on Ways and Means undertook a major revision of the federal income tax law. The product was the landmark Tax Reform Act of 1986. Because of the magnitude of the changes contained in this bill, the committee sought new ways of obtaining and disseminating necessary information. This article discusses the congressional policy-making process, the different kinds of information used in congressional decision making, and some new procedures employed by the committee during House action on the 1986 tax reform legislation.     

The policy response to COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the equity market sentiment: The Indian experience

We examine the dynamics of the impact of the evolving policy response during the COVID-19 pandemic on the equity market sentiment in India. We operationalise our study by examining the India VIX, the fear gauge of the Indian equity market as an indicator for the market sentiment, and the country level Government Response Index of the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University as an indicator for the policy response. The relation is examined through the Markov-switching model using high-frequency daily data from January 30, 2020, to May 31, 2021. The evidence suggests that the policy response has a positive impact on the market sentiment when the market is fearful. Further, the evidence suggests that both the high-fear state and the low-fear state of the market sentiment given by the model are short-lived indicating heightened volatility and possible speculation during the ongoing pandemic in the Indian equity market.     

Introducing a dynamic framework to jointly address policy impacts on environmental and human health in a regional produce recovery and redistribution system

Regular consumption of fruits and vegetables is associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease and all‐cause mortality. Access to fresh produce is limited for individuals and families experiencing food insecurity. Emergency food programs, including food pantries, are important institutions for assuring access to nutritional foods for this population, including fresh produce. Produce availability at such institutions is on the rise thanks to donation, gleaning, food bank purchases, recovery programs multiscale policy interventions. These efforts also have coupled economic and environmental benefits for producers and retailers as surplus food is redirected from the waste stream, where it would otherwise produce greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Although varied surplus produce recovery programs have been implemented around the country and the world, little modeling of potentially synergistic impacts has accompanied their implementation. Thus, there remains sparse understanding of system‐wide joint implications economically, environmentally, nutritionally, and epidemiologically. The goal of this paper is to offer a novel dynamic modeling framework capable of assessing environmental, nutritional, and health impacts of policies and programs in the food recovery and redistribution system. This unique framework serves as a scientific basis for implementing best management practices and policies to improve the sustainability of U.S. food systems.     

入室盗窃犯罪的打防对策研究——以苏州市工业园区入室盗窃为切入点

近几年来,苏州市工业园地区入室盗窃案件发案数居高不下,居民对苏州市工业园区社会治安满意度大大降低。针对苏州市工业园地区入室盗窃现象的现状、特点以及其存在的原因进行了初步的调查总结,结合工业园地区独特的经济、地域条件,采取加强宣传教育、落实＂四个到位＂、加大打击力度、改变传统的侦查方法等多种方法,以达到降低苏州市工业园地区的入室盗窃案件的发案率的目的。