国际体系失衡背景下美国的“大战略”论争

随着近年来国际体系的失衡,美国国内就美国“大战略”展开了激烈的辩论。辩论聚焦于两种战略选项:在国际体系失衡的背景下,美国应继续推行以深度介入世界事务为主要特征的霸权战略,还是应该开始实施以缩减国际承诺和前沿部署为主要内容的收缩战略。深度介入的支持者认为,美国仍然能承受霸权的成本,并且深度介入能给美国带来可观的安全收益和经济收益;战略收缩的支持者则认为,为应对权力相对衰落所带来的挑战,美国应该减少所承担的国际义务,收敛霸权抱负,以实现战略手段与战略目标的平衡。当前美国的对外战略论争隐含着“美国仍在国际体系中拥有支配地位”的假定,这种支配地位能给美国提供不同的战略选择;同时这也隐含着“霸权衰落后美国该怎么办”的战略焦虑,体现了美国对外战略谋划的敏感性和前瞻性。     

金融危机后美国的新孤立主义思潮探析

第二次世界大战后,国际主义成为美国对外政策的主导,但具有深厚历史传统的孤立主义仍不断以新的形式出现。2008年国际金融危机后,美国国内出现新的孤立主义思潮,美国的对外政策也体现出一定的孤立主义倾向:奥巴马政府将更多的精力放在国内问题上,在对外政策上坚持"最少介入";特朗普上台以后,以"美国优先"为口号,继续减少国际介入,避免承担国际责任,同时施行贸易保护主义和强硬的移民政策。此次新孤立主义思潮出现的原因是多方面的,既源于美国国内对自由国际主义实践结果的不满和解决国内问题的需要,也是美国相对实力下降和人口结构变化等趋势性因素作用的结果。     

美日对外直接投资理论及效用分析

一、美日对外直接投资战略目标体系 （一）美国:跨国公司对外扩张 1.寻求利润。战后以来美国大规模地进行对外直接投资,正是为了寻求有利可图的场所,赢得丰厚的利润。因此,追求利润也是美国跨国公司进行对外直     

美国单边主义笼罩下西方同盟体系的嬗变--九一一后日美同盟与德美同盟的比较研究

九一一后,在美国国内及其主要盟友的支持下,美国支配和塑造世界政治的能力骤然上升到近年来从未有的高度。但随着时间的推移及美国霸权主义甚嚣尘上,西方同盟体系已经和正在发生着重大变化,美国支配世界的能力也大不如前。本文选取美日、美德两个同盟为案例进行比较研究,以期探讨这一变化的深层原因。文章认为,不同的文化背景、历史经历、国际环境和国内政治因素,最终导致日、德两国对西方同盟体系采取不同的政策。随着世界政治经济的发展,西方同盟体系必将发生进一步分化,美国的霸权也决非没有界限。     

日本天皇慰灵外交范式探析

在战后宪法体制下,日本天皇以象征身份依照国会决议处理一系列国家事务,其中以"国际亲善"为名的外交活动是其诸多国家事务中的重要组成部分。而慰灵外交则是在日本天皇诸多外交活动中所出现的一种新范式。这种外交范式不仅与日本历史文化密切相关,更体现着日本对外战略走向及国内政治生态风向。探讨天皇的慰灵外交范式的历史源流、目的、对象国选择以及和右翼势力关系等问题,可为进一步理解象征天皇制、日本对侵略战争态度及对外战略意图提供新的研究视角。     

美国为何介入盟国国际危机——基于模糊集定性比较分析的解释

国家利益被认为是一国介入国际危机的重要考量,而其究竟是美国介入盟国国际危机的充分条件还是必要条件却从未被验证。文章运用模糊集定性比较分析的方法分析该问题。文章首先审视了五个条件组态,发现国家利益重合程度这一变量近似于美国介入盟国国际危机的必要条件,并且在与其他条件组合时成为必要条件。充分条件组合分析得出了四条有效的解释路径,其中,危机防御国同美国国家利益重合度高、美国领导人支持来源不变更、挑战国相比防御国军事实力强分别出现在这些解释路径中,并未出现如其他条件变量的取值变化,表明这三个因素是影响美国介入盟国国际危机的重要原因。     

普京总统第三任期俄美关系演变与第四任期双边关系走势

在普京总统第三任期内(2012-2018年),俄美关系不断恶化,因乌克兰危机陷入持久对抗状态;特朗普就任美国总统后,俄美对抗更加剧烈。俄美两国对彼此综合国力和国际地位的认知差异大,对国际法和国际机制的观点不同,缺乏互信。同时,两国在战略军事、欧洲地区安全新体系建构、独联体事务和意识形态等领域存在严重的利益矛盾。在普京总统第四任期(2018-2024年),俄美关系将向消极的方向发展,其基本特点是两国关系继续恶化,但以不发生直接武装冲突为"下限"。     

承诺难题与美国亚太联盟转型

自重返亚太战略出台以来,美国一直努力推动其亚太联盟的转型,其战略是给予盟友更大的战略自主性,推动后者承担更多的责任,以减轻自身的战略负担。在此基础上,美国坚定地增加对盟友的承诺,给予其战略再保证,以威慑对手。然而,在国家实力相对下降的前提下,美国可能没有能力兑现其盟友骤然增长的战略承诺要求,文章将这一困境称为美国亚太联盟体系中的承诺难题。这一难题会导致盟友自主性上升,使得美国陷入承诺陷阱,其主要表现是美国承诺边界将会拓展、承诺与战略成本出现螺旋上升和外交政策存在虚张声势三个方面。为了解决承诺难题,美国在现实政策中采取了美日同盟的再平衡、亚太联盟网络化和制度化三种措施,然而这些措施仍然存在一些隐患。     

欧盟、美国对伊朗的经济制裁:政策分歧及其弥合

20世纪90年代中期以来,欧盟与美国在对伊朗实施经济制裁问题上产生了政策分歧,不过这种分歧在2006年旨在解决伊朗核问题的"六国方案"出台后又实现了部分弥合。本文在分别尝试国际体系结构变化、核能领域的特殊性以及地缘经济与政治等理论解释路径后认为,美、欧的政策分歧及其弥合都可以通过运用地缘经济学理论给予比较合理的解释。文章结论部分指出,地理上的毗邻以及与美国不同的对外政策决策机制,是欧盟各国对中东地缘经济利益更为重视的两大原因。     

论21世纪中美印三边关系

中美印三边关系的互动将在很大程度上影响着国际体系的发展。美国能否利用印度平衡和制约中国,并不完全取决于美印关系的发展。从现实主义角度出发,在经济全球化趋势下,中印之间的共同利益远远大于分歧,只要中国坚持走和平发展道路,印度就不会被美国利用来制约中国;而中美之间的战略目标虽有相当多的差异,但也存在不少利益交汇点。根据自由制度主义理论分析,中美印相互依存关系不断加深,与中美印有关的国际合作机制在发展。中印之间和美印之间有一些共同价值观,中美在价值观上也并非完全不同。中印战略文化的相似之处大大多于美印之间。从建构主义角度看,中印是国际体系中的新兴大国,但都不愿挑战国际体系中居于主导地位的大国——美国的领导地位,也不想打破现有的国际秩序和国际规则,而是主张在遵循国际法准则、平等和相互尊重、合作以及推动多极化的基础上推动国际秩序朝公正合理的方向发展。中美印有必要建立相对均衡的三边关系。如各方处理得当,中美印有可能避免“安全困境”,建立起“双赢”或“多赢”关系。     

Casey: Four Decades in the Making of Australian Foreign Policy

Richard Casey was involved in shaping Australian foreign policy for over four decades. Casey's attitudes, ideas, policies and actions towards the rest of the world are therefore an important part of a Liberal tradition in Australian foreign policy. To examine Casey's place in the Liberal tradition this article explores Casey's positions on the great international issues of two periods: the 1930s and the 1950s. The conclusion of the article is that three key ideas shaped Casey's foreign policy, and therefore also lie at the centre of the Liberal tradition; firstly, a strong attachment to the idea of the English speaking alliance; secondly, a realist perspective on international affairs; and, thirdly, a consistent strand of anti-communism.     

Between national and European foreign policy: the role of Latvia and Romania in the EU’s policy towards Central Asia

This article explores whether and to what extent new member states of the European Union (EU) seek to pursue their national foreign policy goals towards Central Asia through the EU rather than bilaterally. To do so, it focuses on Latvia and Romania. While the article finds evidence of Romanian attempts to project its interests in the region onto the EU level, Latvia appears to rely more extensively on the EU level to pursue its goals towards Central Asia. Using insights from the literature on Europeanization of national foreign policy, the article explains this finding with reference to four variables that determine whether a member state will seek to upload its national foreign policy preferences onto the EU level, namely the perceived salience of the policy goals, the extent to which member states can carve out a niche, their perceived capabilities and the level of Europeanization of their national foreign policies.     

Foreign Policy “On the Cheap”: Latvia’s Foreign Policy Experience from the Economic Crisis

This article assesses whether the reduction of budgetary allocations to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia in 2008–2012 led to more modest foreign policy in the sense of both objectives and execution. After assessing four goals of Latvian foreign policy since 2008 – regional cooperation, bilateral development cooperation, facilitation of Latvia’s economic interests abroad, and relations with the Latvian diaspora – the authors conclude that the decrease in funding for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had little impact on Latvia’s ability to achieve foreign policy objectives.     

奥巴马政府的二十国集团战略评析

源起于美国的金融危机对于美国政府的内外政策产生了重要影响,推动经济尽快复苏成为奥巴马政府的优先议程。承认二十国集团在世界经济和国际社会的重要地位,与二十国集团合作,是美国化解其金融危机和确保经济复苏的关键战略措施之一。奥巴马政府的二十国集团战略有多重动因,最终目的是利用这一新兴的全球治理平台,维护其在国际金融领域的主导地位,进而维持其在全球的霸权地位。     

Notes on contributors

The pre-unification European and foreign policy of the ‘old’ Federal Republic was marked by four principal traits: an emphatically Western orientation, a strong commitment to multilateralism underpinned by close bilateral relations with France and the US, its civilian character, and Euro-centrism. Although it took place in radically different circumstances and under radically different conditions to the first, the second German unification nonetheless gave rise to fears among the political leaders of many other states in Western, Central and Eastern Europe – and among the proponents of some international relations theories – that it would herald sweeping changes in Germany's foreign policy orientation and profoundly destabilise inter-state relations in Europe. The contributions to this volume show that, in the decade following the second unification, there has been more continuity than change in German European and foreign policy. The most important change concerns attitudes and behaviour in respect of the use of military force. Under the pressure of its Western allies and events in the Balkans which have forced it to choose between opposition to war and opposition to genocide, Germany has shed much of its earlier inhibitions concerning the use of military force and become much more like a ‘normal’ big power in Europe. However, because this trend has been explicitly encouraged and welcomed by Germany's allies and partners and because it has taken place exclusively within the multilateral frameworks of NATO and the EU, it does not presage the return of a political ‘Frankenstein monster’ or the revival of the pre-Second World War patterns of European inter-state rivalry. The second German unification will assuredly not turn out to be a re-run of the first.     

“曼陀罗思想”对印尼外交政策的影响:战略文化的视角

战略文化对一国的外交政策有着深远的影响。印尼具有悠久的历史,在古代深受印度教和佛教等宗教文化的影响,这其中就包含"曼陀罗思想"的影响。"曼陀罗"是指一种同心圆的结构,由核心与边缘组成,其变化由核心决定,并延伸具备了一种战略文化的内涵。本文对印尼自建国至今历经的外交政策进行整体分析,认为其外交政策变化深受"曼陀罗"这一战略文化影响,在其历经的苏加诺、苏哈托、后苏哈托等不同时期形成了不同的"曼陀罗"结构,并且由于不同时期外交政策的核心不同,其边缘也发生了变化和延展。从战略文化视角对"曼陀罗思想"等进行理论和案例分析,不仅有利于理解印尼的外交政策,而且能够为中国对印尼政策提供相关政策参考。     

Power transition in Northeast Asia: U.S.-China security perceptions and the challenges of systemic adjustment and stability

This article argues that the rise of China and the changing North-east Asian balance of power are creating the classical adjustment problems of Great Power international relations historically associated with power transitions and that three types of misperceptions across five important issues in the Sino-American security relationship are interfering with the prospects of achieving the systemic adjustments required for long-term stability. Power transition and the rise of China are seen as potentially undermining stability in four ways: (1) by generating security dilemmas and arms races, (2) by contributing to increased incidence of conflicting security interests, (3) by aggravating South china Sea maritime disputes, and (4) by undermining Chinese domestic stability in a manner which potentially results in a hostile regime that adopts an aggressive foreign policy coming to power at some point in the future. Systemic adjustment is defined as the process by which major powers peacefully reconcile their opposing interests and is viewed as being an essential feature of stability over the long term. The article argues that three types of misperceptions concerning: (1) salient issues, (2) security interests, and (3) the influence of domestic politics on foreign policy are manifesting themselves in misunderstandings of five security issues that are impeding the systemic adjustment process. These five issues are: (1) the nature of post-cold war Sino-American security relations and international politics, (2) the role of democracy and U.S. human rights in foreign policy, (3) the significance of China’s South China Sea policy, (4) Middle East diplomacy and arms sales, and (5) nuclear weapons and arms control policy. The article concludes with a discussion of policy implications that stresses the importance of consultation and dialogue to reduce misperceptions.     

论日本的朝鲜半岛政策与日韩邦交正常化

“二战”后日本总的朝鲜半岛政策就是“两个朝鲜”政策。以此为前提,在不同的历史时期,日本根。据国际、国内形势的变化,采取了不同的具体对韩政策。20世纪60年代以前,处于战后复兴阶段的日本,为自身的国家利益考虑,在对朝鲜半岛殖民统治的认识、韩国对日请求权、日韩渔业纷争、在日朝鲜人等问题上对韩采取了强硬政策。之后,随着日本经济的高速增长和美国东亚政策的调整,日本从现实的国家利益及配合美国的东亚战略的角度出发,搁置日韩在殖民统治认识问题上的争议,迅速着手解决影响当代日韩关系发展的最大障碍——韩国对日请求权问题和日韩渔业纷争问题,实现了日韩邦交正常化。     

Notes on contributors

In the Kosovo crisis, Germany for the first time since 1955 joined NATO military combat operations in a major way. While this has often been interpreted as a fundamental major departure ('normalisation') in Germany's post‐war foreign policy, this article argues that Germany's willingness to contemplate joining a NATO war even without a mandate by the UN Security Council represents an evolution, rather than a fundamental change in Germany's foreign policy orientation. This evolution can be explained best as a logical and consistent response of Germany's foreign policy identity which reconciled, through modification, its traditional post war foreign policy identity as a ‘civilian power’ to a radically different security environment.     

Regional power South Africa: Co-operative hegemony constrained by historical legacy

This article argues that regional powers can be distinguished by four pivotal criteria: claim to leadership, power resources, employment of foreign policy instruments, and acceptance of leadership. Applying these criteria to the South African case, the crucial significance of institutional foreign policy instruments for the power over policy outcomes at the regional and global level is demonstrated. But although Pretoria is ready to pay the costs of co-operative hegemony (capacity building for regional institutions and peacekeeping for instance), the regional acceptance of South African leadership is constrained by its historical legacy. Additionally Pretoria's foreign policy is based on ideational resources such as its reputation as an advocate of democracy and human rights and its paradigmatic behaviour as a ‘good global citizen’ with the according legitimacy. The Mbeki presidency was more successful in converting these resources into discursive instruments of interest-assertion in global, than in regional bargains. In effect the regional power's reformist south-oriented multilateralism is challenging some of the guiding principles of the current international system.