美国新政权与六方会谈前景探析

美国大选,执政八年的共和党政府结束了其历史使命,民主党奥巴马新政府建立.根据其上台前后的言行来看,美国奥巴马新政权的基本政策主要在于重振经济、结束伊战以及坚持反恐.在外交政策上,美国新政权将改变其前任布什政府初期的单边主义武力政策,更多地采取多边或双边的协调与合作政策.在朝鲜核问题以及六方会谈机制方面,虽然美国和朝鲜同为当事国,以及中国在其中也发挥了非常重要的作用,但是美国仍然握有相当的主动权.美国新政权的基本政策同样会延续布什政府后期利用六方会谈框架与朝鲜接触和谈判的政策,甚至会采取一些更积极的政策,因为奥巴马政权要解决其面临的内外难题,需要其盟国的协助,也需要中国等国家的协助,对朝鲜这样的国家也希望能够在国际压力下促使其和平地放弃核开发.当然,半岛无核化及防止核扩散仍然是美国的根本利益,要求朝鲜放弃核开发的目标不会有丝毫的改变,甚至从原则上来说美国新政权仍然没有承诺放弃使用武力.此外,美国新政权或者还仍然存在同中国和朝鲜之间在意识形态上的对立,但是,除非发生预料不到的突发事件,美国在朝核问题上使用武力的可能性极小,在意识形态上的某些不同也不会影响奥巴马政权务实灵活的现实主义政策.总之,美国新政权的基本政策有利于朝核问题的缓和,同样也有利于六方会谈持续发挥作用.虽然美国新政权有可能同朝鲜之间有更多的双边直接接触和谈判,但是不可能脱离六方会谈的框架,即或者两国的双边谈判在六方会谈框架范围内加以实现,或者彼此都需要六方会谈框架作为自己外交回旋的余地.作为美国新政权,虽然为了能够使朝核问题有所突破而有可能更加重视双边谈判,但考虑到同中俄的战略性关系以及同其盟国日韩的伙伴关系,也不可能弃六方会谈框架而不顾.     

A Doctrine Worthy of the Name?: George W. Bush and the Limits of Pre-Emption, Pre-Eminance, and Unilateralism

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the foreign policy of the Bush administration was shifted radically in its pursuit of the war on terror. As part of this change, the administration announced a new strategic doctrine in 2002 in the form of the National Security Strategy of the United States which was to become known as the Bush doctrine. At its heart this document advocated the use of pre-emption and unilateralism in its pursuit of pre-eminence. This article traces the development of this thinking and subsequent application of this doctrine, and argues that policy failures in Iraq have nothing to contribute to American foreign policy in the second term. His argued that because of this failure, it is not a doctrine worthy of the name.     

The imperial moment: A European view This article is based on developments up through June 9, 2003, the date it was submitted for publication

This article will first review the essential characteristics of the old exceptionalism in US foreign policy, then compare it with the specific features of the new strategy of the Bush administration and finally address the challenges and risks that this enterprise entails. The article provides an analysis of realist and liberal critiques of the Bush administration's foreign policy in terms of both objectives and results. It concludes that the war in Iraq constituted a truly imperial moment in US history. Preventive war is a flawed strategy, which runs against US principles in world affairs and against its security interests in the current international environment. For this reason, Bush's imperial policy will not last. The author writes here in a personal capacity, and not in the name of the European Union Institute for Security Studies.     

布什政府在东南亚的三重战略及走向

布什政府在东南亚展开的一系列外交活动中，有着明晰的战略目标。它在这一地区的战略目标有3个方面：美国价值观的推行、双边关系的建立和加强、参与并影响地区进程。对上述三重战略走向分别进行阐述分析后，笔者认为，美国会继续推行它的既定战略，但是会遇到一定的阻力。     

The U. S. Policy toward DPRK: Opportunities and Constraints

布什政府上台以来,始终未能阻止朝鲜拥核步伐.朝核试后,美对朝政策有了新的调整,六方会谈得以复会.但美朝双方受各自国家利益和政策目标的限制,在朝鲜半岛无核化问题上的尖锐分歧难以解决,朝核危机仍存在再度升级的可能.     

N. A. Graebner,R. D. Burns,and J. M. Siracusa,Reagan, Bush,Gorbachev: Revisiting the End of the Cold War

Faced with creating a grand strategy for American foreign policy in the post–Cold War world, the Clinton Administration launched the strategy of ‘Democratic Enlargement.’ This analysis makes two contributions to the existing literature on the topic. First, it investigates the role of Wilsonianism and the ‘Democratic Peace Thesis’ in the discourse of the strategy of ‘Democratic Enlargement’ based on public speeches with a focus on the relationship between democracy and security. Second, it utilises securitisation theory to analyse how Clinton’s Administration used the linkage of democracy and security to legitimise humanitarian interventions in Haiti and Kosovo. By addressing ‘Democratic Enlargement’ in security terms, the Administration securitised democracy promotion and, thereby, created a discourse that helped legitimise a gradual move towards a more militaristic foreign policy during Clinton’s presidency. This discourse offered arguments later utilised by the George W. Bush Administration.     

试析未来美国对外政策的走向

奥巴马国家安全团队组成人员基本上都是经验丰富的温和务实派,体现了美国外交和国际安全问题上的现实主义倾向。美国外交将改变布什政府的单边主义,注重多边合作。中美关系不会过于偏离正常轨道,但在诸如知识产权、汇率、人权、应对全球气候变化等问题上,中国可能面临更多的压力。     

特朗普政府天然气新政：主要内容、国际影响及中国对策

特朗普政府将天然气新政的重心聚焦在"去规制化"、提高天然气产量、促进天然气技术创新、完善天然气基础设施建设、推动天然气出口贸易等领域。当前,国际天然气格局正在发生深刻变革,特朗普政府天然气新政助推了这一进程,它将在国际天然气领域引发新一轮能源大国地缘政治角力,进一步激化国际天然气市场供需不平衡并引发国际天然气贸易结构与贸易规则的深度调整,还将带来广泛的"外溢效应"。特朗普政府天然气新政和国际天然气格局的深刻调整为中国完善天然气战略布局创造了战略契机。中国应持续推动天然气进口多元化、提高天然气进口议价能力;不断完善天然气发展战略顶层设计,全面提高天然气战略能力;加快海外拓展步伐,支持天然气企业深入参与国际天然气合作。     

Blundering into Baghdad: an analysis of strategy,structure, principals and agents

Some postmortems of the Bush Administration's pre-Iraq war decision-making have focused on a dysfunctional National Security Council (NSC) structure as the major reason for the lack of a thorough strategic assessment prior to the March 2003 invasion. Other academic and journalistic accounts have focused on a lack of a first rate conceptual thinker at the top levels of the Bush Administration as an important cause of the strategic shortcomings in Iraq decision-making. This article will assess the relative impact of decision-making structure versus quality of strategic leadership in explaining poor performance in the first five years of the Iraq war.     

New Structures of American Foreign Strategy Since 9/11--Seeking Cooperation with Asia-Pacific Countries

When George W. Bush entered the White House in early 2001,American foreign policy was based on unilateral principles and favored disengagement from global conflict resolution. The United States declared it's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto protocol, refused to negotiate with North Korea, and, in particular, it's pursuit of a national ballstic missile defense system,in face of global opposition, further reinforced the position of its unilateralism.The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 came as a shock to the world. The United States suffered not only physical casualties, but felt a psychological blow as well. For the first time since the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States had been attacked at home. Unlike Pearl Harbor, the attacks on September 11 targeted civilians and the cornerstones of the American way of life- their financial and government centers. The terrorist attacks forced the Bush administration to re-examine it approach to foreign policy Seeking cooperation with other powers will be the new choice for American foreign strategy.     

特朗普政府重构中美关系的抱负与局限

特朗普政府谋求从根本上重构中美关系,重置对华政策的前提与目标、框架与内涵、手段与方式,其所采取的一系列举措涉及面广、颠覆性强,严重削弱了中美战略互信,破坏了两国关系的重要基础,扭转了双边关系的发展方向,加剧了两国关系的紧张、摩擦与动荡,使两国走向对抗与冲突的风险显著上升。与此同时,特朗普政府重构中美关系的努力也受到多种因素制约,这使其实现对华政策目标的能力大打折扣。随着政治经济形势发展变化,美国对华政策还将出现新的调整,中美关系的发展仍然具有很大可塑性。对中国来说,以稳健的实力增长为支撑,以合理的利益交换为出发点,以适合时代潮流的对外政策为工具,致力于塑造良性竞争、互利共赢的中美关系,是当下和今后对美政策的基本思路。     

Allies at War in Afghanistan: Anglo–American Friction over Aerial Poppy Eradication, 2004–2007

From 2004 to 2007, the Anglo–American alliance was at the heart of counter-narcotics policy-making in Afghanistan. Despite agreement on the broader direction of strategy, one issue generated significant diplomatic conflict: aerial eradication. The debate over its introduction was extremely controversial within both the Anglo–American alliance and the wider George W. Bush Administration, pitting the State Department and its Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs against the Pentagon and the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Both the Pentagon and British bitterly opposed its introduction fearing it would alienate the rural community and ultimately damage the coalition’s hearts and minds campaign. This analysis provides unique coverage of the fraught policy-making process, paying particular attention to how the British opposed aerial eradication, which included conspiring with the Pentagon in an attempt to defeat the policy. This area of the debate is particularly under-researched, yet is significant as Britain was, after all, the G8 lead nation on counter-narcotics.     

George H.W. Bush: Conservative Realist as President

This article explores George H.W. Bush's foreign policy in order to examine what it can tell us about the successes and weaknesses of conservative internationalism as a world view and as an analytic construct for scholars of international relations. First, to what extent, if any, did the Bush administration's foreign policy reflect the course and logic of conservative internationalism? Second, what can the Bush administration's foreign policy tell us about the utility of conservative internationalism as a foreign policy approach relative to alternative approaches?     

Utopianism and the Bush foreign policy

Amidst a renewed debate over the existence of an American empire, serious questions have emerged about whether the Bush foreign policy can be described as ‘realist’ given the widespread opposition that it encounters from academic realists. This paper is an attempt to shed light on this vexing issue by interpreting the Bush foreign policy through the lens of the broader religious–political tradition of America. Specifically, it argues that the neoconservatives in the Bush administration draw on the utopian strand of this tradition when setting their foreign policy agenda and justifying their decisions to the public. With special reference to Iraq, it discusses how three key utopian themes—the perfection of human life on earth, the possibility of limiting evil through conversion and the prospect of arresting human development—are reflected in the neoconservative agenda. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of how these themes run counter to the tenets of classical realism and of the ethical and political hazards that emerge from an attempt at utopian empire.     

Exploring USAID's democracy promotion in Bosnia and Afghanistan: a ‘cookie-cutter approach’?

US democracy promotion is integral to the pursuit of the grand project of the American Mission. By promoting democracy America makes its role one of international engagement as opposed to one of isolation. The first part of this paper examines the political and cultural aspects of US democracy promotion in the post-Cold War era through the bi-polar framework of the case-specific versus one-size-fits-all. To better understand USAID's democracy promotion policy, the second part takes this framework and applies it to its political reform strategy in Bosnia under the Clinton administration from 1995 to 2000 and Afghanistan under the Bush administration from 2001 to 2008. This paper confirms that America's democracy promotion simultaneously employed both the case-specific and one-size-fits-all approaches. USAID programmes and projects did at times respond to local conditions but nevertheless appear to employ a blueprint design.     

The bush administration's security strategy: Implications for transatlantic relations

There are signs of growing transatlantic estrangement over multiple international issues. An important catalyst for this estrangement is the National Security Strategy (NSS) that the Bush administration promulgated in September 2002, a document that is a detailed imperial blueprint. Despite its pretensions, however, it is not a global strategy, but instead appears to apply primarily to the 'Islamic Arc'--the territory from North Africa to the border of India. The administration's security strategy has important implications for the transatlantic relationship, since the United States is encouraging NATO to become a junior partner for missions throughout the Islamic Arc. Given the growing divergence in US and European interests and policy perspectives, the role that the Bush administration envisages for NATO is probably not sustainable. The 'West' was an artificial geostrategic concept that needed an extraordinarily threatening common adversary (the Soviet Union) to give it substance. The US and its allies will continue to drift apart strategically, and the Bush administration's security strategy may actually hasten that process. It is uncertain, however, whether the European Union will achieve the cohesion necessary to counterbalance US power. The main task facing statesmen on both sides of the Atlantic is to learn how to disagree about specific policies without becoming disagreeable.     

U.S. Engagement in East Asia: A Case for ‘Track Two’ Diplomacy

As the Bush presidency draws to a close, the foreign policy community is taking stock of contemporary U.S.-Northeast Asian relations, assessing the challenges and opportunities that are likely to confront the next administration. China presents both in abundance, as reflected in ongoing tensions and misunderstandings in the Sino-American bilateral relationship. This article assesses the prospects for Washington to improve its relations with China through the mechanism of “track two” diplomacy. First, we expand on the track two concept by examining its main components and functions with illustrative examples. We extend the existing conceptualization of track two beyond its traditional conflict resolution functions and develop an account of it as a mechanism for policy coordination and the reorientation of regional dynamics from conflict to cooperation. Second, we identify major areas of U.S. interest in Northeast Asia and show how track two diplomacy might usefully be pursued within these contexts. Our analysis culminates with recommendations on how the Unites States should apply track two strategies in its relations with China.     

日本民主党对华政策走向探析

日本民主党主政后为实现长期执政的目标,在强化对华关系的同时,也会赋予对华外交更多战略性的色彩.然民主党既和自民党同为保守政党,也坚持把对华关系定位为以日美同盟为基轴的对外关系整体的一个局部,加上日本国内外诸要素和自身条件的制约,其对华政策的转换不仅空间有限,且也存在着不确定性.     

The American friends service committee and Nixon's China policy

This study investigates the influence of the American Friends Service Committee (a Quaker lobbying group) on the policy of detente pursued by the Nixon Administration in dealing with the People's Republic of China. Nixon's Quaker family background is viewed as a link between A.F.S.C. lobbying efforts after 1965 and President Nixon's decision to change U.S. policy toward mainland China. The Quakers were not directly responsible for the Nixon‐Kissinger initiative, but through its lobbying activities in Washington, at Harvard University, and elsewhere, they did help to create a climate of opinion which made acceptable a shift in U.S. China policy.     

欧盟亚太外交中的朝鲜半岛政策

1991年12月9日《欧洲联盟条约》签署后,欧洲联盟国家在追求经济一体化的同时,也在追求政治一体化,即欧洲联盟国家应以国家联盟共同体的方式,用一种声音说话。由于欧盟成员国间政治经济发展的不平衡以及在对外关系中的各自特点和差异,欧盟在对外政策上要完全用一个声音说话,还需要一个较为漫长的过程,也会受到成员国各种因素的制约。欧盟对朝鲜半岛政策从奉行接触到积极介入以及其中的起伏变化,多少能够看出欧盟在对外政策方面的相对模糊与迟缓。