State Welfare Options: Why Are Some States Tough?

In implementing PRWORA, why have some states chosen the most stringent or toughest policy options allowed by the new law? A considerable literature on state policy decisions addresses this topic. The most consistent finding is that “tough states” are those with a conservative ideology and historically high rates of welfare use by minority populations. These conservative policies impact all welfare recipients in the state, regardless of race or sex.     

The Impact of Child Care Subsidies on Single Mothers’ Work Effort

Access to affordable child care is a formidable barrier to employment for many families. Following passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) in 1996 , funding for child care assistance increased dramatically. Using data from the National Survey of America’s Families (NSAF), the impact of child care subsidies on single mother’s work effort is evaluated. The results indicate that not only are women more likely to be employed when they receive child care subsidies, they are also more likely to be employed full time. Single mothers who reported receiving assistance with child care worked, on average, 9.4 hours more per week than mother’s who did not receive help. While growth in funding for child care has slowed in recent years, findings like the ones presented here highlight the importance of affordable child care in the employment decisions of mothers with young children.     

The effect of disabilities on exits from AFDC.

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 replaces AFDC, the largest means-tested cast assistance program for low-income families, with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) block grant. Unlike AFDC, assistance under TANF is limited to five years in a lifetime, and states are required to move families from the assistance rolls into jobs. But not all adult welfare recipients can easily move to work because either they themselves are disabled or they have a child with disabilities requiring special care. This article examines the extent and impact of disability among families on AFDC to gain insight into the potential impact of changes under TANF. Using data from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), we find that in nearly 30 percent of the families on AFDC either the mother or child has a disability. Furthermore, we find that having a disability significantly lowers the probability that a woman leaves AFDC for work but not for other reasons, such as a change in living arrangements. Finally, we find little evidence that having a child with a disability affects the probability of leaving AFDC for any reason.     

Revisiting Shapiro: Welfare Magnets and State Residency Requirements in the 1990s

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity ReconciliationAct of 1996 (PRWORA) generated renewed interest in welfare racesto the bottom as states received greater discretion over eligibilitystandards for new residents. Despite U.S. Supreme Court decisionsfinding welfare-residency requirements unconstitutional andmounting empirical evidence that welfare benefits do not attractpoor migrants, state policymakers have enacted welfare-reformplans that treat newcomers differently as authorized in PRWORA.This article reviews the existing research on welfare migration,current state-residency requirements, and central constitutionalissues surrounding such requirements. With the likelihood thatcourts will have the final word on the current round of statewelfare-residency requirements, it is essential that empiricalresearch on welfare magnets examine the issues central to thecases currently moving through the judicial system.     

State Poverty Rates: Do the New Welfare Policies Make a Difference?

This article uses four models to identify the best predictors of state poverty levels and changes in state poverty rates since the implementation of welfare reform. The policy decisions based on the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) by the states are tested along with more traditional variables identified in the literature. Using several measures of state poverty, the analysis finds that those states with the lowest poverty rates are those with the healthiest economies, and the most generous state spending on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). States with the highest percentage of their TANF rolls made up of black citizens tend to have the highest rates of poverty. Initial poverty rates are found to be important in that states with higher initial poverty levels are capable of generating a larger reduction in poverty than states with lower initial rates. With the exception of limited evidence on sanctions, none of the PRWORA–based policies were found to have any effect on poverty rates.     

Child protective intervention in the context of welfare reform: The effects of work and welfare on maltreatment reports

Recent changes in welfare policy have produced changes in parental work and welfare receipt. These factors are assessed in relation to investigated reports of child abuse and neglect using survey data on 1998 welfare recipients in nine Illinois counties, in conjunction with longitudinal administrative data on cash welfare benefits, employment, and child abuse and neglect reports. Trend analyses show that rates of child maltreatment reports among welfare recipients have risen since the passage of PRWORA in 1996. Findings from multivariate analyses indicate that parental employment has a protective effect on reports to child protection systems (CPS), that this effect is greatest when combined with welfare receipt, and that this effect becomes stronger over time. Those who receive welfare in the absence of employment face a significantly greater risk of CPS involvement, even compared with those who neither work nor receive welfare. © 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Predictions, Patterns, and Policymaking: A Regional Study of Devolution

This article examines state welfare policy choices since thepassage of the Personal Responsibility and Work OpportunityReconciliation Act(PRWORA) of 1996. IT argues that neither priorpredictions nor existing explanations of welfare policymakingfully capture the realities of reform. Using data from nationalstudies and comparisons of policymaking in six states, thisstudy demonstrates that diversity, not uniformity, characterizesstate responses to devolution. Accounting for these choicesrequires an understanding of the context of policymaking. Conventionalanalyses of welfare reform have ignored the institutional structuresthrough which policy is formulated and thus miss an importantdeterminant of choices: the actions of administrative officials.Analyses that ignore institutional settings, and the actionsof administrators within such settings, will continue to missmuch that is crucial to our efforts to understand policy decisions.     

“It’s Great When People Don’t Even Have Their Welfare Cases Opened”: TANF Diversion as Process and Lesson

The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) encouraged states to reduce welfare caseloads. Caseload reduction can be accomplished by promoting exit for work, marriage, or other private means of support and by diverting new applicants. Most research on caseload decline has focused on welfare‐to‐work outcomes; less is known about processes of diversion. This study employs administrative records and ethnographic data to examine diversion in West County, New York, from 1999 to 2003. Findings demonstrate a high level of diversion and suggest that application is an ongoing and at times remedial process rather than an event. Diversion occurs at all points of the expanded TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) intake process and is associated with one‐time lump sum payments as well as the hassle factor engendered by new eligibility requirements. The encumbered lives of applicants and TANF staff discretion are also implicated as factors contributing to diversion. We conclude with an analysis of the implications of TANF diversion for access to benefits.     

Investing in Individuals for Independence

Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) are tax‐protected, matched savings accounts designed to help those with low incomes and few assets buy a home, capitalize a business, or fund higher education. Originally authorized through the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), IDAs are designed, implemented, and evaluated through public‐private partnerships. In January 2003 over 500 IDA programs had been created, with more than 10,000 low‐income individuals making contributions. This paper outlines the rationale for IDA as an asset building strategy for the poor, describes the design and operation of IDAs, and provides results of early program evaluations. It concludes by arguing that IDAs are a smart practice that can and should be expanded.     

Marriage patterns among unwed mothers: Before and after PRWORA

The promotion of marriage and two‐parent families became an explicit public policy goal with the passage of the 1996 welfare reform bill. Marriage has the putative effect of reducing welfare dependency among single mothers, but only if they marry men with earnings sufficient to lift them and their children out of poverty. Newly released data from the 2002 cycle of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), along with data from the 1995 cycle, allow us to compare pre‐ and post‐PRWORA differences in (1) cumulative marriage rates among unwed mothers, and (2) patterns of marital choice (that is, differences in characteristics of the men these mothers marry, such as their education and employment status). Overall, our results show that unwed childbearing is associated with lower marriage rates and marital quality. Difference‐in‐difference models show that welfare reform was not strongly associated with pre‐ and post‐welfare reform changes in marriage among nonmarital birth mothers, even among the most disadvantaged mothers. Compared with other women, nonmarital birth mothers also were less likely than other women to marry “economically attractive” men in the post‐welfare reform period. The success of marriage promotion initiatives may depend heavily on whether women themselves are “marriageable” and whether potential spouses have the ability to support a stable family life. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Gender Role Ideologies and Marriage Promotion: State Policy Choices and Suggestions for Improvement

The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunities Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) lists marriage as one of the major strategies for reducing welfare dependency among clients of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Program along with work requirements and time limits. President George W. Bush has allocated over $240 million to the individual states to create programs to promote and sustain marriages, with specific attention given to encouraging marriage among the low‐income, welfare‐reliant population. We suggest that this policy is based upon a specific gender ideology that seems to ignore the reality of the lives of poor women with children and may be, as some critics suggest, an attempt at “legislating patriarchy.” In this work, we trace the social changes that shaped this ideology, present the options the states have taken to encourage marriage, discuss flaws in the philosophy and implementation of these policies, and provide suggestions for improving program design.     

Lessons to be learnt? The role of evaluations of active labour market programmes in evidence‐based policy making

The interest in results‐based policy formulation requires us to examine the impact of evaluations. This article focuses on the production and use of impact evaluations of UK active labour market programmes. It is intended to be useful for non‐evaluators and for those working in developing and transition countries. The UK provides a case study where there is good evaluation data, available expertise and high‐level political commitment to evaluation. However, obstacles remain in the generation and use of impact data. The article seeks to identify the opportunities and difficulties faced in the UK, and it considers the implications for other countries. It suggests that the measurement of impact concepts will prove difficult in countries that do not have sound administrative data, comprehensive labour market statistics and well‐established macroeconomic and tax‐benefit models. Furthermore, the use of evaluation data may be limited by a range of factors, most crucially those emanating from the legislative and policy‐making environment. The conclusion is that if knowledge‐based policy management is to be improved, changes in evaluation methodology will only be effective if supported by changes in the wider government environment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leveraging Administrative Data to Better Serve Children and Families

The challenge of complex social issues drives the need for data systems that can connect information across multiple service delivery systems. Integrated data systems provide significant value for needs assessment, program planning, policy decision making, and collective impact evaluation across a range of social issues. This case study describes a mature county‐based integrated data system. The case study has three aims: (1) to highlight the value of integrated data systems to research, (2) to outline common challenges that such initiatives face, and (3) to present several ongoing considerations for the field that could inform policy recommendations to facilitate the use of integrated data. The authors present examples from the experience of developing this integrated data system, including involvement in the design and evaluation of the first county‐level social impact bond. The case study highlights the benefits and limitations of integrated data use in research and the potential to advance evidence‐based social decision making.     

Intergovernmental Structure and Fiscal Management Strategies: A Crossnational Analysis

Does intergovernmental structure have a systematic effect on the impacts of local governments' fiscal policy responses? Using empirical data from more than 800 local governments in five countries, the article concludes that intergovernmental structure is associated with the impact attributed to various fiscal management strategies. Such strategies have generally had greater impact in local governments in federal systems than those in unitary state systems. There are similarities between federal and unitary local governments regarding the fiscal management strategies that have least impact, and both types stress the importance of productivity gains via technology. But the differences in relative importance and level of impact are more striking than the similarities. In particular, fiscal management strategies involving the relations of the local government with other governments, such as obtaining intergovernmental revenue and shifting service provision to other governments, have greater impact in significantly more federal systems than in unitary state systems. These federal local governments also experience greater impacts from increasing user charges and raising local taxes. In contrast, local governments in unitary state systems place greater reliance on the more politically expeditious strategy of across–the–board expenditure reductions and on reductions of capital spending. These findings suggest that local governments in more decentralized systems have greater flexibility to manipulate relations with other governments in order to enhance their own fiscal situation. The data also suggest that the government's level of fiscal stress is not systematically associated with the level of impact from most fiscal management strategies, especially in the unitary state systems.     

The Impact of Divided Government on Legislative Production

It seems obvious that divided governments should produce less legislation than unified governments. Yet studies have consistently failed to find such an effect. Because almost all existing studies focus on the experience of the U.S. national government, the data have limited analysis to a consideration of executive–legislative division and ignore the impact of division between bicameral chambers. The state-level data set employed in this study is not so limited. The results show that divided legislatures decrease the production of laws by almost 30%. Nonetheless, consistent with previous studies using national-level data, executive–legislative divisions have no impact of legislative production. The reason for this asymmetry is theoretically motivated. Additional hypotheses of interest are also tested, including whether Republican-controlled legislative chambers are more “conservative” than Democratic chambers in the sense of producing fewer laws than their Democratic counterparts.     

The electoral impact of the financial crisis: Evidence using district-level data

Do economic downturns increase voter support for left or right parties? In our empirical analysis, we combine fine-grained registry-data on the labor market impact of the crisis and how it varied across 5000 electoral districts, with district-level data on vote-shares for all major parties in Swedish parliamentary elections before and after the crisis. Because the impact was so diverse across districts, we can estimate the electoral impact of unemployment more efficiently than usual. Moreover, because the crisis was an external and unexpected shock to the Swedish economy, we argue that the selection bias that is usually inherent in estimating the electoral impact of unemployment is mitigated. We find that the electoral impact of crisis-induced unemployment was large, benefiting right parties.     

An economic analysis of voting in Sweden

Using data from the Swedish Election Studies between 1985 and 1994 supplemented with time series on inflation and unemployment, I compare the impact of macro- and microeconomic variables on the individual vote. The principal finding is that macroeconomic variables influence the vote a bit more than microeconomic variables do. In consequence, both self-interest and public interest appear to be important explanations of economic voting in Sweden. Macroeconomic variables have, however, been much more influential in determining election outcomes. Since previous studies of economic voting have used cross-sectional data only, it is also worth noting that panel estimates indicate a much greater impact of macroeconomic variables on the individual vote than cross-sectional estimates do.     

Welfare State Issues in the Norwegian 1985 Election: Evidence from Aggregate and Survey Data1

In this article we investigate the impact of welfare state issues on the outcome of the Norwegian parliamentary election of 1985. With data from the NSD Commune Data Base we demonstrate that the gains of Labour were positively correlated with the peripheral location of the commune, the level of unemployment. the proportion of disabled pensioners, and a weak supply of health services. The results from a multivariate analysis of survey panel data show that the increase in Labour vote was strongest among those who said that the health issue was most decisive for their choice of party. Despite strong statistical controls some regional effects remain, and we speculate that regions also may carry a symbolic significance that is not captured by traditional aggregate indicators. Finally, we combine the two data sets to see if aggregate variables exhibit a direct contextual impact on individual behaviour. The results of this effort are mostly negative, a finding that invokes a renewed discussion of incompatibilities of micro and macro analysis.