Class, territory and party: political change in Britain, 1945–1974

Abstract. Two theoretical traditions in the study of European voter alignments emphasize alternatively class and territorial structuring of mass politics. Until the 1970's the developmental paradigm resting on the class-based, stable polity model of the 1945–1970 period ruled the research agenda. The weakening of party alignments in the 1970's and the introduction of the competing territorial paradigm challenged the dominant model. This research tests both models in Britain against the supposed stability of the 1945–1970 period. The results demonstrate that while the developmental model fits Britain as a whole quite well, the introduction of regional polity analysis exposes considerable instability of voter and party alignments, uneven class development and the mobilization of cultural cleavages, dynamics which undergird the politics of cultural defence and find expression in the nationalist parties in the 1970's. In questioning the assumed stability of the 1945–1970 period the findings challenge the foundations of the current debates on realignment in Britain.     

Triggers for protest: Modelling responses to the political context in Britain, 2000–2002

Abstract.  Failing to take into account the impact of the political context on protest has serious empirical and theoretical implications for our understanding of the phenomenon. First, it means that protest is conceptualised in rather general terms, and second, accounts of why people participate are therefore somewhat static, emphasising factors that predispose people to protest over more dynamic factors that stimulate protest. This undermines theoretical explanations of action based on rational choice and privileges more sociological accounts of behaviour. By adopting a novel methodological approach and analysing change over time, this article sheds light on the factors that 'trigger' protest. In doing so, it shows that the dynamics of protest can be expressed successfully within a rational choice framework.     

Agree to reform? The political economy of conditionality variation in International Monetary Fund lending, 1983–1997

Abstract.  This article analyzes variation in International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality. Conditions attached to IMF loans vary qualitatively and quantitatively across time and space, contrary to the allegations of inflexibility and insensitivity. This study theorizes that despite the IMF's official rules to determine conditionality by economic criteria, variation arises because the strategic interests of the five biggest contributors to the IMF (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France) interfere with IMF policy, which potentially compromises the effectiveness of its programs. This theory is tested empirically against 398 conditionality agreements contracted between 1983 and 1997 using an event-count method based on the Poisson distribution to obtain statistical results supportive of the theory.     

Peers' Careers: Ministers in the House of Lords, 1964–95

Ministers in the Lords are an important and overlooked part of the British executive. This article examines who they are, what careers they have, and speculates about careers in a reformed upper chamber. It finds intra-party differences in the type of peer employed as ministers and in previous education but not (greatly) in previous occupation, concluding that ministers in the Lords remain part of a social élite. The effect of gender is also examined. It examines career paths, finding the development of an apprenticeship system and a glass ceiling which has led to recruitment problems for the Government. Labour's plans for reform, and the consequences for executive recruitment, are also considered.     

Research Note: Libertarian-authoritarian Value Change in Britain, 1974–2001

This research note explores the mechanisms behind age differences and changes over time in one of the two major value dimensions in British politics, libertarian-authoritarianism. I show that the British electorate has become substantially more libertarian over the last 30 years, but that older people have remained more authoritarian than younger people over this period. Conventionally, due to the problem of the under-identification of models containing age, period and cohort variables, it is difficult to assess whether this indicates generational differences, and generational change, or not. This paper overcomes some of these problems however, by measuring social ageing factors, such as marriage, and using panel data to rigorously assess how individuals change due to these social ageing factors. I find little evidence of psychologists' claims that social ageing leads to increases in authoritarianism, and conclude that both age differences and changes over time are generational in nature.     

Policy Learning and the Drink Question in Britain 1850–1950

This article uses the models of Paul Sabatier and Peter Hall, which stress the role of ideas and social learning in the policy process, to illuminate an historical case study over a hundred-year period. This concerns the Drink Question 1850–1950 in Britain and the various techniques for control of alcohol. In turn, the case study is used to suggest ambiguities or problems with the approaches. The case study finds the concept of social learning to be of some utility but casts doubt upon some of the assumptions of Sabatier and Hall: especially the threefold categorization which each author employs. Both models play down unduly the role of external forces in shaping the policy process and do not satisfactorily take into account the changing nature of a political system. In the case study the interplay between social problems, policy objectives and policy techniques is more fluid and complex than their theories suggest.     

Spinning Europe: Pro-European Union Propaganda Campaigns in Britain, 1962–1975

The impact of pro-European Union (EU) propaganda campaigns in Britain has been neglected within EU studies and in the recent work on the Europeanisation of political parties, trade unions and the British state. Bringing together the few sources of information that exist, this article documents the three government-organised pro-EU propaganda campaigns of the 1960s and 1970s. It specifically discusses the campaigns in 1962—63 to bolster public support following Britain's first application to join the EU, in 1970—71 to prepare the public for accession, and in 1974—75 to ensure continued membership in the 1975 Referendum.     

Issue evolution in Britain: The debate on European Union integration, 1964–2010

While Carmines and Stimson's work on issue evolutions has prompted research showing the dynamics and effects of new party alignments on abortion, religion, gender and cultural issues, this research has all centred on the United States. This article examines issue evolution in Britain. Using evidence on the timing of changes in elite positions from Comparative Manifestos Group data, and survey data on public attitudes to the European Union with a longer historical sweep than heretofore, the article finds strong evidence that the European issue has followed an issue evolution path, though with distinct dynamics contingent on the pace of elite re‐positioning. Thus, this article extends the theory of issue evolution to a parliamentary political system and demonstrates the responsiveness of the public to elite cues, while also providing additional insights from a unique case in which elites have staked out distinct positions not once, but twice.     

Anchoring political preferences: The structural bases of stable electoral decisions and political attitudes in Britain

Abstract. The paper applies a structural perspective to the analysis of political preferences. Examining two British surveys, the 1987 cross–section of the electorate and a panel survey that covers the 1983 and 1987 elections, the research explores the bases of persistent voting for the same party, location on left–right scales, and the probability of holding the same policy views on a host of different issues over time. A set of structural variables rests at the heart of the paper's theory: discussion networks, patterns of interactions with members of political parties, social class networks, and location in the social structure. Several hypotheses guide the analysis: The effects of the structural variables on the probability of casting a ballot for the same political party in any one election and in adjacent elections will remain, even after controlling for party identification; political party socialization; location on left–right scales; positions taken on any and all political issues; age, and past levels of electoral stability. The effects of structural variables on left–right position will remain, even after controlling for locations on alternative left–right scales. Finally, reinforcing attitudinal context provides the only consistent determinant of stable policy positions, after controlling for a host of alternative explanations including level of education; age; interest in politics, and a general propensity to offer stable answers to political questions.     

Demographic and political components in the decline of British class voting 1964–1979

The weakening of the British class alignment since the early 1960s has been extensively documented in past research. This article seeks to identify components contributing to the extent of class alignment, so as to clarify what is that has declined, and when; and to speculate about the reasons for the decline and its implications for the future of the British party system. In fact only one component shows any systematic change over a fifteen year period, and this change can be placed quite specifically between 1966 and 1970. Several more recent events in British politics appear to have causes that can be traced to this original change.