Aggregation,ratio variables,and measurement problems in criminological research

Issues of measurement error, level of aggregation, and ratio variables have been considered serious problems in criminological research. Although there have been many recent discussions of these issues in sociology and criminology, studies designed to assess the impact of these problems on the results of empirical research have, for the most part, been absent. After reviewing what is known theoretically and conceptually about these issues, an investigation which compares empirical analyses of a particular type of crime, homicide, that use different measurement strategies, different levels of aggregation, and ratio versus nonratio variables is presented. Utilizing homicide data from the mid-1970s and selected independent variables, the results of this investigation indicate that these three problems can interact in an empirical setting such that potential solutions to these problems do not always apply in the manner suggested in previous studies. The results also indicate that there is great risk in ignoring one or more of these problems in empirical research, in that different substantive conclusions can be reached from analyses that ignore these issues compared with analyses that deal directly with them.     

Instrumental variables methods in experimental criminological research: what, why and how

Quantitative criminology focuses on straightforward causal questions that are ideally addressed with randomized experiments. In practice, however, traditional randomized trials are difficult to implement in the untidy world of criminal justice. Even when randomized trials are implemented, not everyone is treated as intended and some control subjects may obtain experimental services. Treatments may also be more complicated than a simple yes/no coding can capture. This paper argues that the instrumental variables methods (IV) used by economists to solve omitted variables bias problems in observational studies also solve the major statistical problems that arise in imperfect criminological experiments. In general, IV methods estimate causal effects on subjects who comply with a randomly assigned treatment. The use of IV in criminology is illustrated through a re-analysis of the Minneapolis domestic violence experiment. The results point to substantial selection bias in estimates using treatment delivered as the causal variable, and IV estimation generates deterrent effects of arrest that are about one-third larger than the corresponding intention-to-treat effects.     

龙勃罗梭在中国——一个犯罪学史的考察

龙勃罗梭及其学说在中国之命运变迁,是中国犯罪学发展历程的一个缩影.中国犯罪学以译介龙勃罗梭著作和理论为开端,其夭折也以批判和否定龙勃罗梭及其学说为先导,而其再生与发展同样是以对龙勃罗梭的肯定和客观评价为重要标志.因为龙勃罗梭,犯罪学始成为科学.遗憾的是尽管龙勃罗梭的学说传入中国已逾百年,但是当代中国犯罪学总体仍然处于形...     

Latent-variable models in criminological research: Applications and a generalization of Joreskog's LISREL model

This paper examines issues in LISREL models involving latent, or unobserved, variables. We discuss estimating parameters in multiple-indicator models, various approaches to assessing goodness of fit, different types of linear measurement models, using LISREL to correct for attenuation in models involving single indicators with known reliabilities, and estimating parameters in structural equation models involving latent exogenous and endogenous variables. Finally, we present a generalization of the standard LISREL model which explicitly identifies implicit constraints on parameters in the standard LISREL model. We argue that the generalization can accommodate a wider range of models and provide additional diagnostic information on some assumptions in the standard LISREL model. By example, we show how the more general model can be estimated using Joreskog's LISREL program.     

中国犯罪记录制度的体系化构建——当前司法改革中裁判文书网络公开的忧思

刑事裁判文书公开经历了从不公开到有限公开再到当前的全面实名网络公开三个阶段,成为近期司法改革的重点和标志。犯罪人的身份信息兼具公共属性和私权性质,而当前司法改革未能准确把握其法律性质和法律评价,在制度设计时,忽视了对犯罪人隐私权的保护,混淆了规范性评价和非规范性评价各自的特征和功能,使刑事裁判文书公开的正当性出现了欠缺,不仅削弱了刑事裁判文书公开应有的促进司法完善的效果,而且成为未来的中国犯罪记录制度建构的重大阻碍,成为刑事法治完善进程中的不和谐因素。尽快对当前刑事裁判文书网络化公开的改革举措进行调整,在公布的刑事裁判文书中隐匿犯罪人的姓名,并以此为契机,推动中国犯罪记录制度的建构,是未来司法改革完善的重要工作。     

Reactions to Mandatory Sentences in Relation to the Ethnic Identity and Criminal History of the Offender

This study investigated the responses of 181 participants (87 men, 94 women), from Adelaide, South Australia, to scenarios describing mandatory sentences for perpetrators of a property offense committed in the Northern Territory, Australia. Four scenarios that were randomly distributed varied ethnic identity (White Australian, Aboriginal Australian) and criminal history (first-time offender, third-time offender). Participants completed attitude measures for both mandatory sentencing and capital punishment, a right-wing authoritarianism scale, and a scale concerned with sentencing goals (retribution, deterrence, protection of society, and rehabilitation). Results showed strong effects of attitude toward mandatory sentencing on scenario responses for variables such as perceived responsibility, deservingness, leniency, seriousness, anger and pleasure, and weaker effects of ethnic identity and criminal history. Participants were generally more sympathetic when the offender was an Aboriginal Australian. Results of a multiple regression analysis showed that attitude toward mandatory sentence was predicted by right-wing authoritarianism and by sentencing goals relating to deterrence and the protection of society.     

英国的讯问同步录音录像制度及对我国的启示

我国司法实践部门正在逐步推行讯问同步录音录像制度,《刑事诉讼法(修正草案)》也规定讯问严重案件犯罪嫌疑人应当同步录音录像。作为讯问同步录音录像制度的发源国,英国经过长达20多年的论争和反复试验,最终才于1988年建立了讯问录音制度。2002年,英国又通过《警察与刑事证据法守则F》建立了讯问录像制度。《警察与刑事证据法守则F》根据讯问录像制度的运作机理,确立了许多不同于讯问录音制度的规则和程序要求。英国建立讯问同步录音录像制度的经验给我国以下启示:建立和推行讯问录音录像制度必须获得侦查人员的支持;该制度预期功能的发挥要求建立严密的监督机制;应保障辩护方对录音录像有充分的程序参与权。     

Missing gender in cases of infamous school violence: Investigating research and media explanations

The shootings at Columbine and Jonesboro, along with multiple shootings at five other schools, captured the nation's attention and received widespread media coverage. Utilizing a feminist perspective that addresses masculinity, we explore research and major newspaper coverage of infamous school violence to determine how extensively gender is considered as a contributing factor. Results indicate that data sources on violent deaths at school miss the gendered nature of the violence. Similarly, media coverage of the seven cases under study discount the role of masculinities, bullying, and male violence against girls and women, and few of the policy recommendations address these concerns. The relative absence of attention to the gendered nature of school violence encourages incomplete explanations and ineffective policies.     

国际刑事法院逮捕执行合作中的现实困境与出路

国际合作在逮捕执行中具有重要的意义,执行难已经成为实践常态.逮捕执行合作中的现实困境体现为政治因素和法律因素.前者主要包括国家不愿或不能执行、国际社会支持乏力等;后者主要有管辖权和可受理性、请求权竞合、管辖豁免等.对于政治因素,国际刑事法院要通过两个方面来缓解:一是要坚守法律底线,维护司法正义,赢得国际社会的尊重;二是...     

Insurance fraud in Taiwan: Reflections on regulatory effort and criminological complexity

The nature and prevalence of insurance fraud has been studied only to a limited extent, even in the USA and Europe. Nevertheless, national authorities have pressed ahead with various approaches to control such fraud. This paper briefly outlines the nature and difficulties around measurement of insurance fraud and reviews key international trends in the regulation of fraud. It then presents the findings of an empirical study of insurance fraud in Taiwan and recent proposals for anti-fraud control. It analyses these findings in the context of actual practices of insurance companies which give evidence to the idea that ‘moral hazard’ is embedded in the institutional arrangements, social relationships, and moral economies of private insurance.     

信息时代对刑法解释论的究问——ATM机盗窃案和“艳照门”事件引起的法律思考

信息时代背景下的ATM机盗窃案和“艳照门”事件凸显出高速发展的社会中司法解释与立法之间的紧张关系。在刑法解释论中，客观解释论居于优势地位。客观解释论是当代中国必然的选择。坚持客观解释论，不能超越法律文本的可能文义。     

论刑事司法错误的发生机理与现实危害——基于诉讼运行的分析

从诉讼运行的角度讲,不枉不纵/程序合法仅是一种具有理想色彩的迷思,相反,刑事司法错误在诉讼现实中无可难免。这主要是因为,主观上,刑事司法制度的构建与运行受制于人类的有限理性;客观上,刑事司法活动的开启与完成也受到认知规律和物证技术的限制,难以保障不枉不纵和程序合法。而刑事司法错误的现实危害却极大,微观上造成本案权益的损失与司法成本的耗费,宏观上则导致程序刚性的式微与国家信用的流失。     

Dual Arrest and Other Unintended Consequences of Mandatory Arrest in New York City: A Brief Report

In jurisdictions across the United States, the mandated arrest of individuals perpetrating domestic violence crimes termed “mandatory arrest” or “pro-arrest” policies has become a key policy solution to the issue of domestic violence. The purposes of the policies are to standardize the police response to, and increase the number of, arrests stemming from domestic violence incidents by removing or reducing police discretion to arrest. In 1994, the New York state legislature passed the Family Protection and Domestic Violence Intervention Act, which contained provisions enacting a mandatory arrest statute. Using information from 183 callers to a telephone helpline for victims of domestic violence, we describe four unintended consequences of the policy: “unwanted,” “dual,” “retaliatory,” and “no” arrest. Bi- and multivariate analyses are used to identify victim and perpetrator sociodemographic, situational, and legal factors associated with each arrest type. Results are discussed in the context of the effects of mandatory arrest policies and minimizing problems associated with it in the future.

预防侦查错误视角下公安刑事鉴定制度的反思与完善

刑事鉴定对于公安机关侦查破案发挥着日趋重要的作用,公安机关在侦查线索的寻找、侦查方向的确定乃至侦查终结的定案证据等方面都极为依赖刑事鉴定.然而,因公安刑事鉴定制度本身存在某些缺陷而容易产生诸多鉴定问题,进而导致侦查错误的发生,以致酿成了一系列刑事冤案.完善现行的公安刑事鉴定制度首先亟需解决公安机关内设鉴定机构的组织管理制度问题,即应确保内设鉴定机构的相对独立,同时应明确对刑事鉴定技术的采用标准.诚然,完善公安刑事鉴定制度并不能完全杜绝侦查错误的发生,但是可以减少侦查错误发生的概率.     

中国近代刑法学的诞生与成长

在中国 ,虽然很早就诞生了刑事法律 ,也很早就出现了研究这些法律的律学。但在中国古代 ,并没有刑法学这门学科。近代意义上的刑法学是在吸收消化近代西方资产阶级刑法学的基础上 ,逐步诞生及成长的。本文分三个方面 ,试图对这一过程作一些描述 ,对在此过程中发挥重要作用的若干部代表作进行评述 ,并对其基本特征以及对中国现代刑法学的影响进行阐述     

中国藏区刑事和解问题研究——以青海藏区为中心的调查分析

在中国藏区,刑事和解有着悠久的历史传统,是该地区重要的刑事冲突解决机制。近年来,在和谐社会语境下,中国藏区的刑事和解有所复兴,主要表现为诉讼外和解与诉讼内和解两种形式,其基本依据是盛行于当地的和解赔偿习惯法;实践中,和解的主持者主要是在当地具有威望的长老、宗教人士、村长、部落头人的后裔、司法人员等。就整体而言,中国藏区的刑事和解与国家刑事司法之间是冲突的,而且造成这种冲突的原因较为复杂。为了解决这一冲突,实现中国藏区刑事法治的良性发展,应以维护刑法规范的有效性和彻底解决刑事冲突为功能向度,建立包括刑事案件发现制度、诉讼外和解确认制度和诉讼内和解制度为基本内容的刑事和解制度。     

Crime,time, and punishment: An exploration of selection bias in sentencing research

The sentencing decision reflects the culmination of a long series of processing and, thus, selection decisions, with cases leaving the system at each decision point. Accordingly, the substantive implications of bias due to sample selection are of particular concern for sentencing research. In an effort to assess the existence and manifestations of selection bias, the sentencing decision is modeled for three samples, each of which was selected from different stages of the justice process. Event-history data on felony arrests in the State of California over a 3-year period are used, along with a relatively simple analytic technique which reduces such bias. Results indicate that biasis introduced when censored observations are excluded from the analyses. Also, the effects of certain exogenous variables on sentence length differ, depending upon the selection criteria. Of these, the influence of pleading guilty rather than going to trial is especially interesting. Overall, our findings are consistent with the possibility that selectivity bias has concealed effects of sentence bargaining in some earlier studies.The data utilized in this study were collected and made available by the State of California Department of Justice, Bureau of Criminal Statistics. The Department of Justice bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here.     

广东金融犯罪现状及趋势研究

进入21世纪广东金融犯罪在犯罪形式、特点、手段以及变化趋势等方面均发生了很大变化,通过对近四年来金融犯罪的现状透视入手,研究广东金融犯罪的多重复合型变化趋势,分析新型金融犯罪增加和产生的根源及金融犯罪导致的金融风险和社会不安定因素的危害后果,以及公安经侦工作应对金融犯罪变化趋势的思考。     

From Poisson to the present: Applying operations research to problems of crime and justice

In the 1830s Siméon-Denis Poisson developed the distribution that bears his name, basing it on the binomial distribution. He used it to show how the inherent variance in jury decisions affected the inferences that could be made about the probability of conviction in French courts. In recent years there have been a number of examples where researchers have either ignored or forgotten this inherent variance, and how operations research, in particular mathematical modeling, can be used to incorporate this variance in analyses. These are described in this paper, as well as other contributions made by operations research to the study of crime and criminal justice.