“欧元乐园”的迷失与重建——兼论对东亚区域货币合作的启示

希腊主权债务危机引发的欧元危机是对欧洲区域经济与货币一体化的一次重大考验,深刻反映了欧洲经货联盟成立以来所出现的两大问题:成员国之间经济的不平衡发展以及联盟合作机制的缺陷。欧元危机给东亚区域货币与金融合作的启示是,在以欧盟货币合作为样板的同时,应着重加强区域内信息共享与政策合作,以清迈倡议(CMI)和清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)为基础加快东亚货币合作机制建设,完善区域监管体系;同时加强区域内各国汇率合作和资本账户自由化,稳步推进区域金融市场一体化进程,逐步缩小各国之间汇率波动的幅度,以此推进东亚区域经济合作向纵深发展。     

相对、绝对收益之矛盾与台湾当局的东亚区域政策

民进党追求“台独”面临着东亚区域合作产生的压力,两岸政策和区域政策出现断裂。基于绝对收益的考虑,台湾当局力图参与东亚区域合作,但遭遇两岸关系的牵制。在两岸关系中,民进党因坚持“台独”路线而视中国大陆为敌,相对收益的思维占据上风。对相对收益的考虑减少了台湾地区在两岸经济关系上的绝对收益,却未增加安全方面的优势,更造成了其在地区合作中的边缘化。无论在政治方面还是在经济方面,台湾地区在东亚地区的绝对收益和相对收益都呈现衰减的趋势。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区与东亚区域经济一体化

以双边自由贸易安排为基础的区域经济一体化在东亚正获得快速的发展,中国与东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)的形成进一步加强了东亚地区贸易和投资的内部化趋势.然而从国际政策的最优选择来看,东亚区域经济一体化应当进一步整合,以便有效降低过多的重叠优惠贸易安排所带来的贸易转移效应以及调整成本和行政成本.从产业联系来看,日本的生产优势和ACFTA的市场优势为东亚区域经济一体化提供了可能性.     

试论美国对亚太区域合作的战略目标和政策限度

本文认为,亚太区域合作是美国用来阻止东亚地区只包含东亚的一体化进程获得优势的战略。这一战略是相当成功的,不仅保证了美国从东亚不断发展的经济进程中受益,充当着政治和安全事务的主导者,还削弱了地区内的东亚认同,使跨地区的进程压倒了地区内的一体化进程。但是,美国的亚太区域合作政策具有自身的限度,那就是保持跨区域机制的松散、开放性,而不是积极推动一个紧密的亚太共同体形成。这是由其全球秩序利益、结构性制约和紧密共同体方式利大于弊等因素所决定的。因此,美国对于亚太区域合作的参与会是积极的、但同时也是有限的。     

区域合作、利益协调与机制设计——基于泛珠三角与东盟跨边界次区域经济合作的研究

在区域经济利益协调机制的建设进程中,政府是推动区域合作的组织机制,具有内生动力功能的是市场机制.在泛珠三角和东盟区域经济合作处于初始阶段的约束条件下,评价和激励机制对象应该主要针对区域合作中的地方政府,如果缺乏政府间的协调机制,市场经济的利益最大化和资源配置规律决定双方区域经济合作的发展结局可能是差异性发展和掠夺性竞争.促进泛珠三角与东盟的区域经济合作,必须注意避免无序竞争,扩大区域市场范围,确立利益协调机制与政府规制的边界,从而降低区域交易成本.与此同时,尤其需要制定与实施带有路径依赖性质的制度安排:规则约束机制、信息合作机制、绩效激励机制、利益补偿机制.     

新冠疫情下东南亚区域机制化合作新进程探究

新冠肺炎疫情的全球流行,给国际社会造成了巨大冲击.为应对疫情带来的挑战,东南亚国家携起手来,团结协作共同抗疫,虽然以美国为首的西方国家所造成的"东亚悲剧"阴影对东亚区域仍产生消极影响,但东南亚国家能够超越发达国家主导的"新区域主义",积极推行"开放区域主义"的合作理念.运用超越"雁形模式"的"平轴模式"概念,可以更好地解析东亚国家强化区域认同,加强互信互助,推动联合抗击疫情的制度化区域合作进程.而泛东亚的"胡桃模式"概念,可以使我们更好地理解"东盟+中日韩"合作内核机制及其与区域外重要国家协调的外壳机制构成的双层跨区域合作的复合型框架的建构.在共同的公共卫生危机面前,中美两国应建构一种"双核模式",以防止滑向冲突,积极地相向而行,共同管理好太平洋这台巨型电脑.新冠疫情中的种种乱象预示着西方主导的平面全球化行将终结,东南亚以及东北亚区域的机制化合作将有助于加强亚洲各区域的聚合,促进世界形成区域间相互连接与合作的立体性网络化全球社会.     

全球化背景下东亚一体化理论适用问题探讨

区域经济一体化传统模式是以“同质”成员体为基础,通过区内核心力量协调成员利益来实现区域机制共建,但它无法适用“异质”成员的东亚一体化。然而,经济全球化的纵深发展逐渐放松传统模式的约束条件,推动着区域一体化的制度创新。由此,东亚一体化可以突破传统模式而前行,其成功与否取决于如何设计区域制度、降低制度变迁供给主体的政治成本以及发挥区域的吸引力与全球化并行不悖等理论性问题。     

RCEP的动因、内容、挑战及中国对策

RCEP是顺应东亚区域经济一体化发展进程的重要体现,在有效整合亚太众多复杂的地区性合作机制的同时,也可对美国掌控东亚经济合作主导权起到平衡和制约作用。但RCEP本身的内容及特点决定了未来谈判进程必然面临其成员内部FTA整合与东盟内部向心力和共同意志缺失等问题的挑战。对中国而言,尽管RCEP的推进并非易事,但其积极效应理应促使中国以积极主动态度参与RCEP谈判,进而争取更大的亚太合作空间。     

东亚地区治理机制的有效性评估与未来发展

当前,东亚及亚太区域存在诸多错综复杂的地区性治理机制,如何衡量与评估现有治理机制的有效性,并在此基础上审视和规划未来的区域治理机制,成为有待探讨的重要领域。地区治理机制有效性评估是指通过科学严谨的方法、程序、标准和措施来比较可观察到或可预测到的绩效。文章以目标获得、行为改变、问题解决和集体最优这四个角度作为一级评估指标,在此基础上,将问题程度、权力分配、机制能力、行为趋势、条款运用以及机制动力作为二级评估指标,发展一个相对全面的评估指标体系。这些指标体系试图分析给定问题领域的区域机制是否有效,即对东亚治理机制是否有效这一命题进行变量分析。研究显示,在目前东亚地区治理机制中,东盟、"10+3"与RCEP的有效性最高,而EAS、ARF与APEC的有效性最低,其他机制(TPP、GMS以及中日韩合作)的有效性程度总体居中。就未来发展而言,东亚地区各种不同的机制很难构建成一个全面统一的治理机制,各种机制竞相发展、相互竞争将是未来东亚机制的常态。其中,尤其以TPP、RCEP以及中日韩合作三个治理架构的演进最具关键意义。为此,需要积极研判中国的战略方针与政策选择,客观审视东亚治理机制各自不同的发展情况,及早进行谋划。     

东亚生产网络、全球价值链整合与东亚区域合作的新走向

伴随东亚生产网络的形成与发展,东亚区域贸易体系和结构发生了深刻变化。由于越来越多最终产品的生产不是完全在单一经济体内完成,而是根据价值链的延伸被跨国公司分散在最有效率和成本最低的国家或地区,由此形成的贸易不平衡已不是简单的双边贸易问题,而是复杂的、网络状的多边贸易问题。驱动东亚生产网络发展和国际分工的动力仍然在外部市场,东亚依然缺乏一个能够推动区域内贸易与经济发展的内需市场。文章认为,全球价值链整合中转移与升级的对抗,反映了对东亚生产网络主导权和治理选项的不同认识,也预示着未来东亚区域合作路径和制度的竞争。     

The International Monetary Fund,Party System Institutionalization,and Protest in Latin America

Extant studies have documented a positive correlation between country participation in International Monetary Fund–sponsored programs and collective protests in Latin America. However, anecdotal evidence indicates that there is a great deal of variation in the number of protests in recipient countries across the region. This article provides a theoretical argument that explains how the fund interacts with the level of party system institutionalization to affect the level of protest. The main prediction is that the level of protest decreases in recipient countries when the level of party system institutionalization is high. Empirical results from a sample of 16 Latin American democracies observed from 1982 to 2007 provide strong statistical and substantive support for the main hypothesis.     

The Regulatory Role of Social Policy: Macao's Social Security Development

Central to the regulation theory of social policy is the argument that the welfare state has played a key role in the maintenance of the proper working of capitalism. Starting from the core argument of the theory, this article attempts to demonstrate that the Social Security Fund, a cornerstone of Macao's social security system, achieved three major regulatory functions in relation to the perpetuation of capitalism from the establishment of the fund in 1990 to 2005: legitimisation, reproduction and disciplinisation. There was a watershed year in 2002 in which the predominant regulatory forms displayed a qualitative shift from legitimisation to reproduction and disciplinisation. The shift is explained in terms of different interplays of the political and economic forces within the basic structural constraint of the capitalist social system.     

The Soviet Union and the GATT: A Framework for Western Policy

An American economist, editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics, questions the desirability of Soviet membership in the GATT. Viewed from the framework of the theory of clubs, the Soviet Union is not a desirable member. This is partly because it does not seek the same level of liberalization of world trade as do other members and partly because it is not able to contribute effectively to the liberalization of the international trading system. A critical evaluation of an opposing view leads to conclusions that Soviet membership in the GATT would be costly to members and yield few tangible benefits. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

Selling the Public on Sustainable Watershed Conservation

Abstract:  The city of Quito, Ecuador, began working in 2000 to protect the ecologically fragile watershed area for its drinking water. In order to protect the Papallacta watershed, the independent Fund for the Conservation of Watersheds (FONAG) was launched to finance and manage economically sound sustainability projects in the area. FONAG is funded in part through start up grants from several organisations and a 1 per cent fee on all Quito water bills, but it has been unable to build an endowment sizeable enough to begin implementing conservation projects. We measure perceptions of the fund among Quito's university–based residents in two settings and evaluate the quality of the fund's proposed communication campaign based on existing communication theory. Further, we propose an adapted environmental education model based on a synthesis of existing theory and the empirical findings from our examination of the FONAG example. The Papallacta case study illuminates the potential strengths and weaknesses of the cultural ecology and political will of this type of collaborative sustainability project for addressing water problems in a developing country in a mountainous setting, centred around the themes of water conservation and sustainable development.     

‘Dégage RCD!’ The rise of internal dissent in Ben Ali’s Constitutional Democratic Rally and the Tunisian uprisings

This article examines the historical evolution of Tunisia’s Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) from its beginnings in 1987, when President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali took power, until his ousting in 2011 when the party was outlawed. I argue that the RCD evolved from a political force with wide popular support during a short democratic era (1987–89) into a repressive interest group in the 1990s, when the regime cracked down on political dissidents and popular freedoms whilst rewarding party members with lucrative benefits. In the 2000s the RCD adopted a quasi-mafiosi structure that profited the Ben Ali family, which increasingly monopolized economic and political power. Tunisia’s transformation into a near dynasty marginalized many RCD members and its wider networks, a central dynamic to understand Ben Ali’s ousting in 2011.     

Membership accession in the African Union: The relationship between enforcement and compliance,and the case for differential membership

It is argued in this paper that the level of non-compliance is high in the Organisation of African Unity/African Union in part because the organisation failed to institute and enforce strict membership accession conditionalities. Across the life of the organisation, this has resulted in non-compliance, mainly the non-payment of dues and non-implementation of policies. This position adds a historical dimension to arguments that identify weak economic capacity and the lack of political will as the main sources of non-compliance. It also supports the thesis that the enforcement of strict accession rules prepares states to perform their obligations and sets them up to receive benefits from the group. In 2002, Africa's continental body changed its mandate from liberation to integration. Since integration requires the strict enforcement of accession rules, the paper suggests that the organisation proceed by choosing differential membership to align the behaviour of its members to their obligations.     

‘When we have nothing we all eat grass’: debt,donor dependence and the food crisis in Malawi, 2001 to 2003

In 2002, Malawi faced a devastating food crisis, an event in which hundreds of people died of hunger, while over a thousand succumbed to a country-wide cholera epidemic. By June of that year, over 3.2 million people needed emergency food aid, one-third of Malawi's population. This article assesses the crisis through the lens of donor–government relations. Beginning with the restructuring of the agricultural sector under a World Bank-sponsored structural adjustment programme, a process that discouraged food production by small-holder farmers, the article explains how the Malawian government's reliance on external sources of funding, and its deteriorating relations with key international creditors, rendered it impotent in the face of the oncoming crisis. Having sold its strategic grain reserve (SGR) to service mounting debts, the government could not rein in a food price spiral that peaked in March 2002. Allegations of financial irregularities surrounding the sale of the SGR served to make matters worse. The United States, Britain, Denmark and the European Union cancelled direct development funding and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank suspended Malawi from the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative. With limited access to credit, the Government of Malawi could neither re-stock its food reserves nor fund emergency imports in time to mitigate the worst effects of the crisis. Relief aid was further delayed by disagreements between the government and key donors and aid agencies regarding genetically modified (GM) food. While accepting Amartya Sen's basic entitlements framework – the 2002 crisis was one of pricing and access rather than absolute shortages of food – the article posits the following theoretical argument: in the context of highly indebted poor countries, it is a government's relationship with its principal donors and creditors that determines the outcome of food crises by shaping the policy responses available both leading up to and during the event.     

The Implications of Brexit for the Caribbean’s Future Relationship with Britain and the EU

Abstract

The UK Brexit referendum to leave the EU has created concerns internationally, particularly for countries that have formal trade, aid and investment treaties with the EU and none with Britain alone. The notion of a Commonwealth Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a non-starter and would bring no benefits to the Caribbean. But, Britain outside the EU deprives the Caribbean of a sympathetic voice on a range of issues, including financial services, and alters the level of official development assistance that will be available from remaining EU members that have no historical relationship with the English-speaking Caribbean. The importance of the UK as a market for their goods and services make it imperative for Caribbean countries to start early ‘talks’ with London so as not to be crowded out by FTAs that the UK will conclude with countries larger and richer than the Caribbean. At the same time, Brexit provides an opportunity for the Caribbean to revisit its unsatisfactory Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. Caribbean countries need to determine their objectives and take early initiatives to realise them.     

Financialisation, Financial Literacy and Asset-Based Welfare

This article examines New Labour's policies of asset-based welfare in the broader context of financialisation. It argues that these are indicative of a mode of government concerned to alter individual outlooks and aspirations, and that asset-based welfare, as developed by New Labour, is primarily a strategy for enhancing financial literacy. Exploring and identifying the general contours of New Labour's reform of welfare provision (particularly the rise of conditionality and personalisation), the article presents a case study of the Child Trust Fund, its development and marketing. The article closes with reflections on the fate of such policies after the sub-prime mortgage crisis.     

What does the EU-SADC EPA really say? An analysis of the economic partnership agreement between the European Union and Southern Africa

After more than 10 years of negotiations, the European Union and six members of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) successfully concluded talks on an economic partnership agreement (EPA). The EPA is a reciprocal trade agreement under the umbrella of the Cotonou Agreement, under which all parties commit to trade liberalisation but under which the SADC EPA countries can exempt sensitive products from liberalisation so as to take account of their level of development. This article explains in detail the contents of the agreement, examines the degree of trade liberalisation, and explores the lesser known provisions of the EPA. The article then argues that part of the agreement's developmental character resides in the numerous provisions that offer benefits to SADC EPA states but not to the EU. It also highlights provisions that could be invoked to help African states in the process of economic diversification. Finally, contrary to some detractors, the article takes the view that policy space for policy-makers remains by and large respected.