The 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Timor‐Leste

In the wake of the 2006 “east‐west” crisis in Timor‐Leste, the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were widely heralded as a key test of political development in the newly independent nation. This article analyses the pre‐election situation, significant electoral law changes, the emergence of new political parties, campaign incidents, poll results, and postelection negotiations over a coalition government. It concludes by reflecting on some of the wider implications for political stability in Timor‐Leste, and related developments through 2008. 1     

Elections and Economic Turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, Voters, and Investors

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.     

Policymaking by Referendum in Presidential Systems: Evidence from the Bolivian and Colombian Cases

Government‐initiated referendums (GIRs) have so far been neglected by the debate on the effects of institutions on policymaking in presidential systems. The literature on Latin American politics has focused on isolated cases of GIRs, which are largely interpreted as epiphenomenal to a regional trend toward personalistic neopopulism. This article provides a conceptual framework for the systematic comparative study of GIRs. It argues that presidents' propensity to promote legal changes through referendums and their concomitant capacity to dominate policymaking are subject to the interaction of two institutional variables (constitutional rules regulating the competences of elected officials in GIR processes and minimum turnout requirements) and two political variables (preference distribution in the legislature and the position of the median voter). These propositions are tested through a comparative analysis of referendum experiences in Colombia and Bolivia, two cases with similar political settings and significant variation in each of the institutional variables.     

The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador

The victory of the FMLN in El Salvador's presidential elections of March 2009 has been considered remarkable, given the dominance of ARENA in four consecutive presidential races from 1989 to 2004. Using individual‐level data, this article examines the determinants of electoral support for both parties over the past 15 years. Several statistical models illuminate some of the factors that led to ARENA's dominance and ultimate defeat. A combination of variables associated with different theoretical models of voting helps explain the choices made by Salvadoran voters over the years. The most consistent predictors of vote have been voters' self‐reported ideology and their evaluation of the incumbent government's performance. The 2009 turnaround relates to fundamental changes in the national and international context, and also to the selection of candidates.     

The Liberal Peace at Home and Abroad: Northern Ireland and Liberal Internationalism

Northern Ireland, we are told, holds positive lessons for other societies emerging from violent conflict. As Britain is one of the leading proponents of liberal internationalism, this article considers whether the liberal internationalism pushed with so much enthusiasm abroad through British foreign policy has been applied with diligence at home—in the Northern Ireland peace process. The findings suggest that Northern Ireland is by no means a poster child for liberal internationalism. Instead, British government handling of the Northern Ireland peace process shows serious deviations from the liberal internationalist canon. This article argues that liberal peace-lite has been tolerated and facilitated at home, while a stricter variant is often expected in overseas contexts.     

The Presidential and Parliamentary Elections of the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela: Change and Continuity (1998–2000)

The paper examines to what extent electoral behaviour in Venezuela, as it appeared in the elections of 1998 and 2000, is different from that observed between 1958 and 1988. The paper reaches the conclusion that given the decline in party identification (dealignment), the short-term variables specific to each election, in particular the attitude towards government performance and personalities, have grown in weight vis-à-vis the structural factors (party identification, institutions, long-standing political predispositions). However, the latter were still relevant and important in the 1998 and 2000 elections and it is very likely they will carry on as such for the future. It is also concluded that, even though the party system has become unstable due to the decline in identification with the traditional government parties, new stabilising factors seem to have appeared and should be taken into account. These are ideology and negative party identification.     

The Illegal Drug Industry,Violence and the Colombian Economy: A Department Level Analysis

Previous research on the Colombian illegal drug trade, which is generally qualitative in approach and focused on the national level, has concluded that the drug industry harms the economy. In order to test out this widespread claim, this article seeks to differentiate between the corrosive economic effects of Colombia's persistently high levels of generalised political violence and the specific consequences of the cocaine trade. It combines historical national level analysis with quantitative department analysis and identifies the economic effects of both paramilitary and guerrilla violence, thereby contributing to a closer examination of the impact of the drugs trade on the economy. The results reveal that paramilitary violence is related positively to exports but negatively to gross domestic product. Guerrilla violence, however, appears to harm exports but, surprisingly, not gross domestic product. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, coca cultivation does not have independent effects on exports or GDP, a conclusion which suggests that Colombia's economic problems stem more from political violence than from the drug trade in itself.     

Cross-Cutting Networks and Political Participation: Lessons of the 2010 City Mayoral Elections in Taiwan

This research examines whether public political participation in Taiwan is influenced by people’s interactive relations and social environments. In contrast to the “sociodemographic factor” and “political mobilization” approaches used in previous studies of political participation, this paper’s theoretical structure is that of “cross-cutting networks.” It analyzes the influence exerted by social network “cross-pressures” on voters’ engagement in political activities and their likelihood of voting in the 2010 mayoral elections in Taipei, Kaohsiung, and Taichung cities. The study uses national survey data to test the association between cross-cutting networks and political participation. The methodology adopted includes cross-tabulation analyses, ordered logit model, and logit model. The findings reveal that people in cross-cutting networks involving greater political disagreement are less likely to participate in politics while individuals engaging in homogeneous social interactions and under low-level cross-pressure are predisposed to participate more actively in politics.     

A Coalition Lost,Then Found: A Spatial Analysis of Ukraine's 2006 and 2007 Parliamentary Elections

Between 2006 and 2007, four political scientists asked how an ostensibly "tired" electorate might respond to two successive parliamentary elections among a nearly identical set of alternatives. Using the same spatial perspective and multidimensional metric scaling methods employed previously, they asked whether those same tools can be used to summarize the electorate's perceptions of its electoral choices in 2006 and 2007 and whether those perceptions respond to events in ways that "make sense." Is there evidence to suggest that parties and politicians in Ukraine must now respond to the strategic imperatives described by an abstract theory of spatial analysis developed to organize study of more established democracies?     

The Right to Gender Recognition before the Colombian Constitutional Court: A Queer and Travesti Theory Analysis

This article discusses the case-law on gender recognition of the Colombian Constitutional Court. It argues that the Court, paying attention to queer and trans theory and to the demands of trans activists, has interpreted mainstream constitutional rights in such a way that trans people can have their self-defined identities recognised. The article criticises the limitations of this case-law, which still does not explicitly include non-binary and gender fluid people. On the other hand, it highlights that the Court's doctrine has the potential to challenge both the gender binary and the very category of ‘sex’ or ‘gender’ in the law.     

Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuela's 2000 Elections

This study aims to explain the victory of Hugo Chávez and his party in the 2000 Venezuelan elections, to analyze the factors that made this victory possible, and to examine the consequences for future developments in the Venezuelan political system. The decay of traditional party loyalties without the emergence of new parties deeply rooted in society (dealignment without realignment); underdevelopment; and an institutional setting dominated by a president elected by a plurality electoral system have opened the door to personality-centered politics and weak parties, which are the main features of the current political situation. Compared to the 1993 and 1998 elections, the 2000 elections once again confirm an increase in personality politics and the decay of parties as instruments for articulating interests, representation, and governance. As a consequence, this article argues, instability is likely to remain a feature of Venezuela's party system for some time.     

Why Voters Decide Late: A Simultaneous Test of Old and New Hypotheses at the 2005 and 2009 German Federal Elections

Against the background of a substantial rise of the number of late-deciding voters at recent elections the paper simultaneously tests four complementary hypotheses on the background of contemporary electors' timing of decision making. The traditional floating voter hypothesis fares best in this analysis: lacking partisan predispositions and a general detachment from politics appear as the main reasons why people take longer to make up their minds. Indifference and attitudinal ambivalence as well as mixed party-political signals from voters' social networks also lead to electors postponing their voting decisions. The hypothesis that late deciding is a consequence of increased availability and attention to mediated political information is refuted. Several long-term trends are discussed as reasons for the increase of late deciding.     

Institutions,Civilian Resistance,and Wartime Social Order: A Process‐driven Natural Experiment in the Colombian Civil War

Why do armed groups fighting in civil wars establish different institutions in territories where they operate? This article tests the mechanisms of a theory that posits that different forms of wartime social order are the outcome of a process in which an aspiring ruler—an armed group—expands the scope of its rule as much as possible unless civilians push back. Instead of being always at the mercy of armed actors, civilians arguably have bargaining power if they can credibly threaten combatants with collective resistance. Such resistance, in turn, is a function of the quality of preexisting local institutions. Using a process‐driven natural experiment in three villages in Central Colombia, this article traces the effects of institutional quality on wartime social order.     

The 2014 Parliamentary Elections in India: A Study of the Voting Preferences of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh

This paper analyses the manner in which over the past few years, the major political parties in the largest Indian state of Uttar Pradesh have calibrated their policies with the objective of wooing Muslim voters. It examines the factors which shaped Muslim electoral behaviour in the general election of 2014 to the Lok Sabha (Lower House of the Indian Parliament) and how the electoral arithmetic was transformed in the run-up to this election. By analysing institutional, political and intra-community factors, it explores the reasons for the declining importance and representation of Muslims in the electoral arena of Uttar Pradesh.     

Parties and Change in the Post-Bailout Cyprus: The May 2016 Parliamentary Elections

The parliamentary elections of 2016, the first following Cyprus’ exit from the bailout programme, took place in a context of indifference on the part of the citizens. Characterised by a decline in bipartisanship, a rise in abstention and a more fragmented party system, the elections paved the way for the historical entry into parliament of the far right party, ELAM. This article sets these outcomes against the broader backdrop of the Great Recession while also paying attention to the reinvigoration of the cultural dimension of political conflict, with potentially significant constraints for future negotiations on the Cyprus problem.