Coalition Erosion and Presidential Instability in Ecuador

This article advances the idea that coalition formation and maintenance in highly fragmented presidential regimes is not only crucial to overcoming policy deadlock, but in some cases, critical to ensuring government survival. To advance this argument, the article looks at the formation and demise of legislative coalitions in Ecuador between 1979 and 2006. The empirical data suggest that paradoxically, government coalitions became more difficult to sustain after the adoption of institutional reforms intended to strengthen the president's legislative powers. The adoption of those reforms, it is argued, undermined the legislative incentives to cooperate with the government and helped to accelerate coalition erosion. Not only did the reforms fail significantly to avoid policy deadlock, but in some cases they contributed to the early termination of presidential mandates. This article contributes to the study of coalition survival and how it is linked to policymaking.     

The 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Timor‐Leste

In the wake of the 2006 “east‐west” crisis in Timor‐Leste, the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were widely heralded as a key test of political development in the newly independent nation. This article analyses the pre‐election situation, significant electoral law changes, the emergence of new political parties, campaign incidents, poll results, and postelection negotiations over a coalition government. It concludes by reflecting on some of the wider implications for political stability in Timor‐Leste, and related developments through 2008. 1     

Multi‐Level Elections in Switzerland

Why do election results at national and regional parliamentary elections in Switzerland differ so widely? And why are these differences more pronounced in some constituencies than in others? This study discusses competing theoretical views of the linkage between elections held at multiple federal levels, and empirically tests their predictions using official election statistics and contextual data from Swiss national and cantonal elections between 1999 and 2003. Despite the spatially and temporally limited scope of this analysis, one conclusion suggests itself: current theories of the linkage suffer from their neglect of features of the electoral systems which may vary between different types of elections. Taking these institutional variations into account, we find a strong systematic relationship between election outcomes at different levels. Moreover, the linkage of election outcomes is, to some extent, contingent upon the degree to which regions are integrated into the national political system: while national trends in party support tend to drive election outcomes in nationally well‐integrated cantons, election results ostensibly follow regional electoral developments in more peripheral cantons.     

The Concertación's Defeat in Chile's 2009–2010 Presidential Elections

The Concertación lost the recent presidential elections in Chile after 20 years in office. This article proposes three explanations for this result. First, the Concertación's candidate selection process through primaries was exclusionary, without opening up participation to all potential applicants. This combined with a deep erosion of the coalition, reflected in the resignation of deputies and senators from parties that compose it. The process was accelerated with the emergence of an independent candidate, formerly from the Concertación. Second, the candidate from the right increased his vote in the poorest sectors and expanded the right's constituency to middle‐class segments, traditional Concertación electoral strongholds. Third, the right achieved greater electoral consistency than the Concertación by reducing the number of voters who split their tickets. Its presidential candidate obtained almost the same percentage as its list of deputies.     

The Transformation of Australian Electoral Analysis: The Two‐Party Preferred Vote — Origins,Impacts, and Critics

Measuring party support in Australia by constructing a “two‐party preferred” vote has had a profound effect, not only on the way political scientists, journalists, and politicians understand electoral “swing” and predict electoral outcomes, but also on their understanding of the party system, their thinking about electoral fairness, and their views about which party or parties can legitimately claim government. This article traces the origins — the maternity as well as the paternity – of the “two‐party preferred”. It documents its spread from federal to state elections, even as voting systems in some states have switched from exhaustive preferential to optional preferential. It discusses its wide‐ranging impact, and its implications for notions of electoral fairness and the legitimacy of election outcomes. It evaluates various criticisms of the concept — technical, pragmatic, and conceptual. And it notes the implications for marginal seat campaigning of the commonly observed “uniform swing”— implications completely at odds with the idea that marginal seats matter.     

Assessing Candidates at Home and Abroad: A Comparative Analysis of Colombian Expatriates in the 2010 Presidential Elections

This article examines candidate favorability among Colombian expatriates and Colombians in the home country in the 2010 Colombian presidential elections. It analyzes the influence of several socioeconomic, migratory, mobilizing, and contextual factors on candidate appraisal using a large exit poll conducted at Colombian consulates in five cities in the United States and Europe and five cities with high emigration rates in Colombia. Aside from differences in candidate favorability stemming from socioeconomic variables (education, income, and religious affiliation), Colombians living abroad largely evaluate candidates in ways similar to Colombians living in the country.     

“单一行政官”理论与美国总统权力的扩张

"单一行政官"理论是在对美国宪法有关总统权力条款的解读过程中产生的理论,其核心含义是,任何对总统掌控行政部门进行限制的企图都被视为违宪。"单一行政官"的概念形成于200多年前的制宪会议。后来,"单一行政官"理论不断地发展演变,为美国总统不断扩展其行政权力提供了理论依据。"单一行政官"理论通过证明总统扩张权力的正当性,对美国三权分立的权力制衡机制构成了威胁。要厘清总统权力的边界,必须参照宪法的文本和结构,同时也要考虑到现代社会对行政部门提出的新要求。     

俄罗斯与中亚五国总统制比较

苏联解体后,俄罗斯联邦以及中亚五国皆效仿西方实行总统制的国家相继确立了总统制共和政体,而俄罗斯的总统制更带有议会制的特点。如何认识这些国家在民主化过程中的制度选择?本文试图从六国总统制政体的确立过程、宪法所规定的总统地位、总统的产生和任期、总统所行使的职权、总统与议会的关系等方面,通过宪法规范的比较,结合历史、文化和民族的分析,深入了解这些国家在政治体制转型中制度模式选择的相似点与差别,并提出几点思考。     

A Case Study of a Sport‐for‐Development Programme in Brazil

This article examines the ‘Sport Works’ narrative of sport‐for‐development practitioners of an inter‐organisational sport‐for‐development (SfD) programme utilising rugby to foster positive social transformation in Brazil. In doing so, we address an under‐representation of practitioners who are often seen as subjugated voices in SfD programmes. The paper also addresses an under‐representation of Brazil as a research site in SfD literature. Following several site visits and interviews with practitioners, our data concludes that despite a novel context of Brazil and the alternative values to football offered through the sport of rugby, practitioners and programme managers maintain dominant narratives of social transformation through sport without clear monitoring and evaluation.