Counterterrorism strategies in the lab

We conduct experiments to test the collective action dilemmas associated with defensive and proactive counterterror strategies. Defensive policies are associated with creating public ??bads' (e.g., a commons) whereas proactive policies are akin to the voluntary provision of public goods. When combined, the inefficiency of collective action is exacerbated, resulting in a situation known as a Prisoner??s Dilemma squared (PD²). Deterministic versus probabilistic equivalent versions of the associated externalities are compared within a laboratory setting. Experimental results reveal that the collective action problem associated with counterterror strategies is deepened in uncertain environments, and is indeed a robust regularity that is not easily overcome; as individuals gain more experience, they become even more self-interested.     

Are economists more selfish than other 'social' scientists?

There is considerable professional disagreement among economists about whether economists are less cooperative than non-economists. It has been argued that once an individual has been schooled in the self-interest model of individual human behavior (s)he exhibits more selfish behavior than other, ostensibly similar individuals who have not been taught to fully appreciate Homo economicus. Heretofore, the empirical debate has centered around classroom experiments designed to compare the “honesty” of undergraduate economics majors versus non economics majors. However, methodological problems have plagued these studies, leaving both sides at an impasse. We offer unique and compelling real-world evidence that suggests economists are no less cooperative than non-economists. Indeed, after comparing the incidence of “cheating” on their Association dues, we find that professional economists are significantly more honest/cooperative than professional political scientists, and especially, professional sociologists.     

Mixed evidence for a relationship of cognitive fatigue to political engagement

Daily cognitive fatigue is widespread, yet we are still learning about its influence on political behavior. Existing research suggests fatigue will reduce consumption of politics at the margin. Moreover, when fatigued individuals do engage with political material, they should be more likely to choose content and decision rules that require minimal effort. We find mixed empirical evidence for these claims. In observational data, we find a negative relationship between fatigue and engagement, on average, but the coefficients are typically small and statistically insignificant and we find substantial variation across different measures of fatigue. In three experiments, we find mixed evidence that manipulated fatigue reduces the demand for political content over sports and other non-political entertainment. In a fourth experiment, we find no evidence that manipulated fatigue shapes heuristic versus systematic processing. We discuss the limitations of our study, its relationship to existing work, and avenues for future research.     

Labeling candidates as underdogs in political communications: The moderation of candidate-related factors

Underdogs are individuals or groups who are at a disadvantage in competitive situations or predicted to fail in competition against rivals. In elections, candidates often label themselves as underdogs, regardless of their poll rankings, using the associated image of weakness to appeal to voters. This study examines the advertising effects related to labeling candidates as underdogs (versus frontrunners) in political communications, and the possible moderating effects of candidate-related factors, including media-based poll rankings, biological sex, and physical attractiveness. The results of two experiments show that a candidate's use of the underdog label generates better advertising effects when polls indicate the promoted candidate is close to or substantially behind the competitor, or when the promoted candidate is female and moderately physically attractive. However, using the frontrunner label generates better advertising effects when the promoted candidate is male, highly physically attractive, or substantially prevailing over the competitor in the polls.     

Ministerial Leadership and Endorsement of Bureaucrats: Experimental Evidence from Presidential Governments

Scholars have debated what constitutes effective ministerial leadership with respect to administrative competence versus political influence. The authors contribute experimental evidence to this debate through a unique survey design of endorsement experiments. Using original data from 949 national civil servants in South Korea, this article examines civil servants’ assessments of ministerial leadership in three central dimensions of public management: internal management, interbranch coordination, and policy formulation/implementation. Further, existing variation in the characteristics of agencies is used to test whether such variation induces systematic differences in civil servants’ responses. Findings show that that civil servants’ attitudes toward ministerial leadership are asymmetric in nature. Ministers with civil service backgrounds are endorsed in all three dimensions, whereas ministers with legislative backgrounds receive increased support only for interbranch coordination skills. The levels of support for ministers with different backgrounds also vary across agency types. This analysis has implications for public management practice and agency control in presidential governments.     

Globalization and the Retreat of Citizen Participation in Collective Action: A Challenge for Public Administration

Globalization challenges the ability of contemporary public administration to encourage citizen participation in collective action through behaviors such as tax compliance and contributions to public goods. The authors introduce a new individual‐level approach to globalization, arguing that people vary in the extent to which they are globalized and that an individual's level of globalism (ILG) reflects attitudes and dispositions that influence the way he or she resolves the social dilemma of participation in collective action (i.e., the decision to contribute versus follow a “free‐ride” strategy). Using a four‐country sample, the article examines the relationship between ILG and collective action participation decisions in three behavioral experiments. Findings support the hypothesis that regardless of country‐level globalization, a more globalized individual complies less willingly with tax codes, donates less to local nongovernmental organizations, and prefers to adopt a free‐ride strategy in a public goods game. The consequences for public administration are discussed.     

Googling the requester: Identity‐questing and discrimination in public service provision

Innovating upon previous field experiments and theories of identity‐based discrimination, we test whether public officials are using searches (“identity‐questing”) to profile citizens and acting on latent biases. Pairs of “institutional” and “noninstitutional” requesters send lower and moderate burden freedom of information (FOI) requests—providing no identity cues apart from undistinctive names, e‐mails, and ID numbers—to nearly 700 of Brazil's largest municipalities. Results show institutional requesters receive one‐fifth more responses than noninstitutional comparators. For moderate versus lower burden requests, noninstitutional requesters are 11% less likely to receive a compliant response than their institutional comparators. The only plausible explanation for these results is identity‐questing, a phenomenon that has far‐reaching policy implications. Most of the world's FOI laws, for example, contain vague ID obligations, which translate incoherently from laws to regulation and practice. Results enjoin public service providers to protect the identities of citizens by default or upon request.     

Beyond dichotomous explanations: Explaining constitutional control of the executive with fuzzy-sets

Abstract. What are the main variations in the constitutional control of the executive in 45 parliamentary democracies and how can these differences be accounted for? Four competing hypotheses, based on dichotomies, explain the degree of this control by means of contrasting institutional settings: consensus democracy versus majoritarian democracy, presidentialism versus parliamentarism, thick versus thin constitutionalism and established versus new democracies. These hypotheses are tested with the help of fuzzy-sets that allow for varying degrees of membership that go beyond the presence/absence suggested by these dichotomies. The necessary and sufficient conditions for constitutional control are specified with the help of this new methodology. The fuzzy-set analysis shows that the degree of constitutional control can be explained solely by a specific combination of institutional conditions stemming from the four dichotomies, and not by one single dimension. This constellation remains hidden for the traditional correlational techniques like regression. Hence, the fuzzy-set logic presents a promising new tool for comparativists that can be used to reveal causalities.     

Estimating mortgage prepayments and defaults in older federally assisted rental housing and the possible costs of preventing them

Abstract

An issue now facing the federal government is whether and, if so, how to intervene to prevent mortgage prepayments and defaults on federally assisted low‐income rental units. This paper presents the preliminary estimates of the potential scope of the problem in terms of the possible incidence and timing of these actions, and the costs of preventing them. The estimates are based on modified versions of the model developed for the National Low Income Housing Preservation Commission's study, Preventing the Disappearance of Low Income Housing.

An intermediate version of the modified model predicts 45 percent fewer defaults, 154,000 versus 280,000 units, and 45 percent lower total costs for preventing defaults, $4.6 billion versus $8.4 billion. On the other hand, 16 percent more prepayments are predicted, 283,000 versus 243,000 units. Estimated total costs for preventing prepayments are 17 percent lower, however — $8.5 billion versus $10.3 billion.     

Cutback budgeting: The long-term consequences

This study asks whether short-term cutbacks made during a fiscal crisis become permanent once fiscal conditions improve. Hypotheses are developed to establish a framework for analyzing a time-series data set. These hypotheses address trade-offs between less essential versus more essential services, salaries versus positions, and capital versus operating expenditures. Then long-term consequences are assessed with a longitudinal, comparative case study of the effects of New York City's mid-1970s fiscal crisis on education services in the city. Education services were cut dramatically in 1976 and 1977. The trends in those services, defined in various ways, are compared over time and in relationship to the rest of New York State. We find that less essential services, teacher positions, and capital and maintenance expenditures suffered, relative to more essential services, operating expenditures, and teacher salaries.     

Beyond Negativity: The Effects of Incivility on the Electorate

There is much concern among pundits and political observers that incivility undermines our electoral process. Yet we have little evidence that actually documents whether incivility has such pernicious effects. This article seeks to advance our understanding of the influence of incivility on the electorate. We argue that three dimensions are central to understanding both the perceptions and effects of different types of campaign messages: tone (negative versus positive); civility (civil versus uncivil); and focus (issue versus trait-based message content). Using an experimental manipulation on a large national sample that examines these three dimensions, we find that uncivil attacks in campaigns do not appear to be as worrisome as its detractors fear. While uncivil messages in general—and uncivil trait-based messages in particular—are usually seen by the public as being less fair, less informative, and less important than both their civil negative and positive counterparts, they are no more likely to lead to detrimental effects among the public. In fact, incivility appears to have some modest positive consequences for the political engagement of the electorate. These findings are important, since attacks and counterattacks will continue to shape the American political landscape.     

'Dark Matter': Institutional Constraints and the Failure of Party-based Euroscepticism in Germany

The article is built on four propositions. First, there is a latent potential within the German polity for the mobilisation of what remains a significant level of popular unease about aspects of the ongoing process of European integration. Second, at present this potential is unfulfilled and, as a result, Euroscepticism remains the 'dark matter' of German politics. Third, the absence of a clearly stated Eurosceptical agenda is not due to the inherent 'enlightenment' of the German political class about the European project, but rather is the result of systemic disincentives shaping the preferences of rational acting politicians. Finally, these systemic disincentives are to be found within the formal institutions of the German polity. The key ideas here are of 'hard' versus 'soft' Eurosceptical narratives, sustained versus heresthetic agendas, and 'polis constraining' versus 'polis shaping' strategies for their promotion. Political agents' choice of strategy depends on the nature of the institutional setting within which they are operating. The institutional configuration of the Federal Republic provides poor returns for party-based Euroscepticism. The mobilisation of popular unease about aspects of European integration remains an unattractive option for rational acting political agents.     

Legislative bargaining with costly communication

We investigate the effects of voting rules on delay in a multilateral bargaining experiment with costly communication. Our design is based on a variant of the Baron–Ferejohn framework. Communication takes place after a proposer is selected and before a proposal is made. In contrast to prior experiments, communication is directly associated with costs in our setup. Specifically, every second of communication increases the probability that the game is terminated before a proposal can be made. In case of ‘breakdown’, each player receives an exogenously fixed disagreement value. Those values sum up to less than the amount of the available surplus, implying that delay owing to communication is costly. We vary the decision rule (majority versus unanimity) as well as the distribution of disagreement values (symmetric or asymmetric). We find that unanimity rule leads to longer communication delays and more frequent breakdowns in asymmetric, but not in symmetric situations.

     

Trade: With whom? for what? a citizens's guide to the trade debate

The only real trade policy choices involve how to manage trade. The four important choices to make in formulating trade agreements are whether they are: (1) rule-oriented or outcome-oriented; (2) uniform across the economy or sectoral; (3) aggressive or passive in enforcement; and (4) bilateral or multilateral. Preferences for various combinations of these variables depend on resolving conflicting goals. Important goal conflicts include whether to seek balanced trade versus a higher standard of living, gains of the zero-sum type or only those of the positive-sum type, relative wealth or absolute wealth, and profits for American corporations versus good jobs for Americans.     

Structural versus Piecemeal Definitions of Social Issues: A Subjective Factor in Systern-Transcending Struggle

Virtually all social scientists, Marxists or non-Marxists, agree that various aspects of advanced contemporary societies have become increasingly interdependent. Therefore it would seem that piecemeal definitions of issues and social problems are becoming more and more inadequate in dealing with the crucial systemic characteristics of our societies. Decision-makers as well as the public need not only more information, but systemic information based on structural rather than piecemeal definitions of issues and social problems. This paper explores, firstly, how mainstream sociology and Marxism deal with the complexity and interdependency characteristics of mature capitalist societies. Secondly, it explores some normative conclusions about the type of political information and communication needed in mature capitalist societies, according to Marxist and mainstream sociological interpretations. Thirdly, it provides some empirical illustrations of how we can study piecemeal versus structural definitions of issues and problems in political communications and public opinion. Finally, some assertions about holistic versus piecemeal political communication and policy-making are briefly confronted with Popper's views about the compatibility of piecemeal versus utopian or holistic social engineering with political democracy.     

Neoliberalism,Nationalism and the Decline of Political Traditions

The three great Western political traditions (conservatism, liberalism, social democracy) incorporate three of the four possible combinations of the core political axes: traditional, unchanging authority versus the challenge of change, and egalitarianism versus inegalitarianism. The fourth possibility—egalitarian conservatism—has appeared in various guises, but has usually become submerged within the right, including its most authoritarian forms. Current xenophobic movements claiming to represent those suffering from excessive change—for example, those involved in the UK 's EU referendum and Donald Trump's victory in the USA —are seeing an apparent resurgence of this neglected tradition. What are its implications for politics in general?     

Ties That Do Not Bind: Musings on the Specious Relevance of Academic Research

This article discusses the lack of congruence between academic research and practice in the field of public administration. It argues that this disconnect can be traced to the ambiguous and conflicting goals and expectations of scholarly research: (1) the creation of theoretical versus pragmatic knowledge; (2) the use of data-supported versus logic-driven information; (3) the use of the scientific method versus case studies; (4) the prestige of academic-oriented versus practitioner-oriented journals; and (5) the pressures of academic tenure versus the need for organizational effectiveness. The article explores the state of academic research in other disciplines and offers five solutions to narrow the gap between the academy and the agency settings.     

Preference votes without preference? Institutional effects on preference voting: an experiment

A classical question of political science is to what extent electoral systems influence voting behaviour. Yet, many of these studies examine how different electoral systems affect the election results in terms of vote distribution across parties. Instead, we investigate how electoral rules affect intra party preference voting. Given the importance of the debate on the personalization of politics, insight into how electoral rules shape intra-party choice is a valuable contribution to the literature. In our study, we focus on the effect of two specific rules: the option to cast a list vote and on a single versus multiple preference votes. The results of experiments conducted in Belgium and the Netherlands show that electoral rules indeed influence voting behaviour with regard to intra party preference voting, although differences exist between the Netherlands and Belgium. Moreover, we find that the option to cast a list vote equally affects votes for the first candidate on the list, as well as lower positioned candidates. This suggests that preference votes might be less preferential than has often been assumed.     

Tracking and Explaining Neighborhood Socioeconomic Change in U.S. Metropolitan Areas Between 1990 and 2010

This article addresses four fundamental questions about neighborhood change processes and outcomes among large U.S. metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2010: (a) Is it possible using census data and other secondary sources to come up with a consistent and robust method to measure gentrification and other forms of substantial neighborhood socioeconomic change (SNSEC) across all U.S. metropolitan areas? (b) To what degree are gentrification and other forms of SNSEC the result of metropolitan-scale economic and demographic forces versus more bottom-up and neighborhood-specific forces and dynamics? (c) To what degree are gentrification and other forms of SNSEC shaped by the actions of individual, and groups of, property owners, developers, and speculators versus the neighborhood service and location preferences of households? (d) To what extent are gentrification and other forms of substantial neighborhood change always accompanied by the displacement of existing residents?     

青少年偶像崇拜系列综述之四:论青少年偶像崇拜的分型

本文提出,偶像崇拜在神灵性-世俗性、精英性-草根性、禁欲性-享乐性三个维度上存在着内在的对立关系。据此,中国大陆青少年的偶像崇拜可以被归纳为宗教性偶像崇拜、圣贤性偶像崇拜、民俗性偶像崇拜、娱乐性偶像崇拜、草根性偶像崇拜这五种基本类型。这五类偶像崇拜表现出某些特性维度上的重叠,同时又各具特点,其总和就构成了中国大陆青少年偶像崇拜类型划分的正六边形模式图。