霸权的逻辑：美国亚太安全战略的多边转向

二战后,美国在亚太地区构筑起双边联盟体系,但近年来对于加强多边安全合作更为积极。美国近几届政府在亚太安全战略方面作出了重大调整,从奥巴马政府到拜登政府都在推动双边合作转向多边合作,而为何发生这一转变值得探讨。美国在权力优势明显时,倾向于采取双边合作;当美国权力优势缩小时,更加重视多边合作,其安全合作形式是接近于联盟还是相对松散的安全合作,则取决于外部威胁性质和内部分歧大小。美国亚太安全合作形式的调整取决于中美实力差距、外部威胁变化和成员国分歧,多边形式可以更大范围地进行国际动员,最大程度地维护自身的霸权地位。美国在亚太地区的多边安全合作拥有稳固的合作基础、灵活的多边形式和共同的身份认同,有助于美国调动战略资源和联合应对共同关注的威胁。亚太多边安全合作增强了美国的安全动员能力,冲击了亚太地区秩序,给中国带来较大的安全压力。但不同合作机制也面临合作程度不一、成员战略分歧和合作议题分散的影响,合作进程存在着不确定性。     

疱疹病毒US4基因及其编码蛋白的研究进展

通过对疱疹病毒US4基因及其编码蛋白的特点、基本功能以及US4基因编码蛋白与US3蛋白、US8蛋白的相互作用进行论述,为进一步开展对疱疹病毒US4基因的深入研究提供帮助。     

US economic statecraft in East Asia

Linkage politics in the US were revived after the terroristattacks in 2001 as the US endeavored to bolster its positionin the international system. This paper examines current USeconomic statecraft in East Asia, particularly through the useof the preferential trade agreement instrument. As the US encountersincreasing threats in the region through China's economic andmilitary expansion, the emergence of Islamic militancy, andcontinuing tensions on the Korean peninsula, it is attemptingto reinforce its strategic position through the economic reinforcementof its bilateral politico-military alliances. However, as theestablishment of its recent free trade agreements has revealed,neo-mercantilist politics, as motivated by US Congressionalattention to domestic lobbying, present a risk to this strategy.It is possible that this tendency to economic nationalism, asevidenced in the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement, willdetract from the broader purpose of reinforcing the US strategicposition in the region. Received for publication April 10, 2007. Accepted for publication February 19, 2008.     

Explaining US–China economic imbalances: a social perspective

China has witnessed a continual drop in the labour income share of its gross domestic product (GDP) and a steep rise in income that has caused a savings glut and high investments. China’s shrinking domestic demand indicates that its output growth must increasingly rely on expanded manufacturing exports to the US. China’s state accommodation for US offshoring further aggravates trade imbalances between the two countries. The United States is also experiencing a rise in social inequality associated with a decline in savings that is a fundamental cause of its current-account deficit with China. The swelling US service sector interacts with a high ratio of consumption to income, and the liberal US policy for cost outsourcing to China has a complicated impact on employment and an adverse effect on inequality.     

Human Rights Disparities between Europe and the United States: Conflicting Approaches to Poverty Prevention and the Alleviation of Suffering

The US and most of Europe disagree over the validity of a human rights approach to economic development and planning. These differences manifest themselves in policy outcomes with higher protections in Europe for the poor, the vulnerable, and the weak. The US approach of limited state action, on the other hand, appears to create insecurity for the needy. Europe's success in poverty alleviation presents an ethical challenge to US reluctance to accept legal obligations to provide a basic right of subsistence to its citizens.     

US foreign policy,public memory,and autism: representing September 11 and May 4

In this article, we examine the social production of autism in US foreign policy discourse. Autism, we argue, is evident in the active forgetting of US foreign policy and its consequences, both in the US and abroad. It is this forgetting, promoted by the US state, that enabled many Americans to respond to the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon with the question ‘Why do they hate us?’ The explanation for the social production of an autistic attitude in US foreign policy, we argue, lies in the relations between institutional power and competing narratives and articulations of US foreign policy and domestic politics. The argument is illustrated through analysis of the politics of public memory at Kent State University in Kent, Ohio, where, on May 4, 1970, 13 students were shot, four fatally, while protesting the US invasion of Cambodia.     

冷战后美国亚太安全护持战略行为模式——以南海外交为例

冷战后美国的战略行为模式并非完全承袭基于国际系统结构基本分析框架的霸权护持模式。美国亚太安全护持战略行为模式是基于国际系统进程基本分析框架的导出概念。厘清对安全护持的认识需要解构这一概念,找出蕴涵于其中的基本战略行为,而基本战略行为的判定须通过"基于维度"的考察。施韦勒和米尔斯海默意义上的制衡可以作为这种基本战略行为的分析基底,但制衡的概念必须重塑才能符合基本战略行为的要求,重塑制衡的方式主要是打破其指涉对象的单一维度而进行多维重构。随着冷战后亚太安全环境的变迁,美国的安全护持战略行为模式也存在转型的必要,而制衡行为的转型又是安全护持模式转型的核心。冷战后美国对南海相关声索国的外交行动验证了安全护持模式及其转型的有效性。     

绿色议题联盟与复合安全化实践：美国关键矿产联盟的构建逻辑

随着碳中和共识成为全球气候治理的主流认知,关键矿产作为支撑清洁能源转型的核心要素,对一国在世界低碳秩序转型中能否获得绿色竞争优势具有重要影响。面对中国等新兴大国的绿色崛起,美国对本国在关键矿产供应上的结构性劣势产生了浓重的霸权焦虑和不安全感。为此,美国选择对传统联盟体系进行调整,试图通过构建绿色议题联盟重塑对竞争对手的战略优势。为了解决联盟调整过程中的合法性约束和政策性约束,美国开启了复合安全化实践。其中,美国的安全化话语实践框定了联盟调整的合法性问题,针对国内民众和外部盟友塑造了关键矿产领域的不安全感,明确了议题联盟需要对抗的目标和具体做法。美国的安全化政策实践则在话语实践的基础上推动了与外部盟友之间在关键矿产问题上的政策协调,在双边和多边层面建立了一系列相互嵌套、兼顾多方位需求的合作机制。安全化话语实践和安全化政策实践相互交织,推动了以美国为主导的关键矿产联盟不断成形。然而,美国关键矿产联盟在理念、分歧管理和资源支撑等方面都存在较为明显的缺陷,其效力难以达到美国政府的预期。     

Security, nationalism and the pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles: The South Korean case, 1970-82

South Korea decided to develop nuclear weapons and surface-to-surface missiles in the early 1970s. The Park Chung-hee administration made the decision because of its concern about a complete withdrawal of US forces from Korea following the Nixon Doctrine. Simultaneously, increasing nationalism within the administration, caused by its tumultuous relations with the United States, further strengthened such pursuits. Later, when faced with the US threat to withdraw security and economic assistance, the administration slowed down active development of nuclear weapons in 1976, but it continued missile development. However, the Chun Doo-hwan administration, inaugurated in 1980 after military coup and massacre, froze all weapons-related nuclear research and the missile programme. The Chun regime made such a change because it needed the support of the US to make up for its weakness in legitimacy and because the Reagan administration provided a solid defence commitment to South Korea.     

Inventing terrorists: the nexus of intelligence and Islamophobia

The transatlantic Islamophobia industry, emboldened by US intelligence efforts to entrap Muslims, appears to have helped to increase permissible levels of Islamophobia across the US, as illustrated by the fiery anti-Muslim rhetoric during the 2016 presidential campaign. In this article, I first look at five key leaders of the Islamophobia industry who also claim to be “terrorism experts” and have links to US and Israeli intelligence. I then describe US law enforcement’s mass surveillance of Muslims and its invention of terrorists, including a map of the “successful terrorist prosecutions” claimed by the US Department of Justice, most of which were tried only as criminal cases. Finally, I explore in-depth the case against the Holy Land Foundation, a Muslim charity based in Texas that was run by Palestinian-Americans and targeted by both the state and the Islamophobia industry for its dubious links to “terrorism”, helping to legitimate the Bush W. Administration’s “War on Terror”. I argue that this nexus of intelligence and Islamophobia has empowered anti-Muslim voices that were formerly marginal.     

NATO's Southern flank and Italy's role in it

The end of the Cold War brought about a change in US basing policy in Italy. Some bases were dismantled, while others, like the one in Vicenza, were strengthened raising considerable local protest for environmental reasons. The article examines whether agreements establishing the US bases have a solid foundation in the Italian Constitution and whether the weapons detained there are in conformity with the disarmament treaties binding Italy. Since the bases are now employed for NATO “out-of-area” operations and have become a part of the US strategy of “war on terror”, they inevitably influence Italy's foreign policy and its option to stay out of ongoing conflicts. The article also considers the continuing need for US bases from the point of view of Atlantic solidarity.     

1958年印尼内战与艾森豪威尔政府的政策

美国对1958年印尼内战的干涉是美国与第三世界关系史上一个有代表性的事件。艾森豪威尔政府从美苏两极对抗的角度认知和处理美国与新兴的民族主义国家的关系,将美国对亚非民族主义国家的政策附属于美国对苏冷战战略。正是基于这样一种政策思维,美国对印尼内战采取了干涉政策。干涉行动的失败,迫使美国决策当局重新检视对印尼政策的基本构架,并着手制定一项更为可行、更能反映印尼政治经济和社会现实的政策。     

Intellectual property provisions and support for US trade agreements

Intellectual property rights are a key piece of the expanded trade agenda, and the United States has pushed hard to strengthen protections beyond WTO standards in its trade agreements. While agreement provisions governing intellectual property are commonly thought to be an important driver of corporate preferences over US trade policy, systematic empirical evidence for this proposition, especially in comparison to other determinants of trade policy, is generally lacking. To fill this void, this paper examines variation in reliance on intellectual property across US industries to explain attitudes and lobbying on US trade agreements. The effects of IP provisions on support for US trade agreements are politically substantial, though trade remains the primary determinant of preferences over trade agreements.     

朝核问题与东北亚安全合作框架前景

朝核问题已呈现长期化趋势 ,为在建立东北亚安全合作新框架方面抢得先机 ,美、日、韩等国相应做出政策调整。美国加大了“谈”、“压”的力度 ,但尚未将朝鲜作为战略打击的主要对象。日本对朝政策向右摇摆 ,并寻求在建立东北亚多边安全框架方面发挥独自影响。韩国努力增加美韩联盟的平等色彩 ,谋求在解决朝核问题中发挥主导性作用。抓住朝核问题 ,推动建立东北亚“多极”主导多边安全合作机制 ,中国可以大有作为     

A FAREWELL TO THE GREAT GAME? PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIAN-AMERICAN SECURITY COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA

Long before 9–11, Russia and the United States found common ground in their efforts to undermine the Taliban government in Afghanistan, despite serious disagreements over policy in other parts of the world. The events of 9–11, however, changed Russian foreign and security policy drastically. One of the most fundamental and controversial shifts came when President Putin chose not to interfere in US negotiations with the Central Asian states to use their airbases for the US war against al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Putin also offered to use Russia’s oil reserves as a means to stabilize jittery world markets. In return, Russia gained US support for its bid to pipe Caspian Sea oil over Russian territory. More importantly, the US government gave Russia essentially a free hand in its war against separatist Chechnya. While there are many potential scenarios in highly unstable Central Asia that could serve to sour relations once again, Russia and the United States have an unprecedented opportunity to build trust and cooperation through peacekeeping and problem solving in the region.     

美国对中越西沙海战的反应

西沙海战爆发后，美国采取不介入的立场，军事上不介入中越海战，外交上不支持任何国家对西沙和南沙群岛的领土要求。其主要原因是：其一，美国认为这两个群岛的主权归属难以确定；其二，西沙海战的交战双方是南越和中国，美国难以取舍；其三，美国已经自越南撤军，出于国内政治的考虑，不愿意也难以介入西沙海战；其四，从根本上讲，美国的国家战略决定其必然采取不介入的政策。美国关注海战后军事和外交局势的发展，同时采取措施，尽量避免其盟国与中国之间发生战事，以推行其反苏遏苏的国家大战略。     

遏制的转向:“梅普组合”时期的中俄美三角关系

本文扼要阐述2008年5月至2012年5月"梅普组合"时期中俄美三角关系的变化。随着俄美关系的缓和,美国已将遏制战略竞争者的矛头对准中国,但这种遏制已经与冷战年代有着很大的不同,是接触中的遏制。同时,中俄战略协作出现了以往没有的政治与经济平衡发展的势头,快速发展的美俄经贸合作和能源合作对中俄相关领域的合作构成了极大的挑战。     

US-Arab Gulf Relations amidst Regional and Global Changes

Abstract

The Arab Gulf has long enjoyed privileged relations with the United States. Being home to the world’s largest oil reserves, the US saw it in its strategic interest to keep Arab Gulf states in its camp during the Cold War. The relation developed over the years to include other areas of cooperation such as in the military, economic and even academic fields. However, many factors today challenge this relationship. In the face of the US’ evident retrenchment from the region, the Arab Gulf is showing more inter-GCC cooperation, and Saudi Arabia is trying to forge alliances independently from the US. At the same time, Arab Gulf countries are intensifying their lobbying efforts in the US.     

The Dilemma of Nuclear Disarmament: The Case of North Korea

ABSTRACT

The Hanoi summit between the US and North Korea failed not because of North Korea’s brinkmanship strategy or its miscalculation of the US position on the denuclearisation talks, but because of a fundamental issue: a dilemma of how much to yield in giving up its military capabilities to expedite the lifting of sanctions. The leadership in Pyongyang has concerns about the ‘deliverability’ of its promises to its domestic audience to ensure deterrence capabilities and economic recovery. The two-level game model explains why both sides keep minimising the range of options for the negotiations, increasing the risk that the talks will break down.     

亚太军事形势动荡的美国因素

当前亚太地区军事形势激烈动荡，正处于冷战结束以来最为复杂的时期。关国是推动亚太地区军事形势动荡的主要“推手”，其目的一是为美国的战略重点转移服务；二是为美国输出军火做铺垫；三是为遏阻中国的发展进程营造氛围。对此，我应高度警惕，冷静观察，沉着应对。