论中国在东南亚的软实力

近年来,中国与东南亚国家的关系越来越密切,中国在东南亚的影响也越来越大。这种变化不是靠恐吓和威慑达到,而是通过中国不断增强的软实力来实现的。以东南亚地区为舞台,中国从援助、外交、外贸与投资、机制建设、自由贸易区建设、关税减让、非传统安全合作、教育、留学生交换、中华文化弘扬等方面展示了自己的软实力及其魅力。当这些得到东南亚各国认可,中国的政策和做法得到理解和支持,中国在东南亚的软实力就获得了提升。中国在东南亚地区软实力的提升进一步密切了两者的关系,保证了中国和东南亚的共同安全。     

论东亚经济共同体的形成基础及其发展趋势

近20年来,随着区域经济一体化的进展,东亚各经济体的贸易和投资关系日益密切。就贸易依存度而言,东亚已接近一体化程度最高的欧盟,堪称超越政治制度差异而组成的自然经济区域的典范。东亚区域大部分与东亚汉文化圈重叠,各国有相近的文化和价值观。相比欧盟地区,东亚地区历史上长期和睦相处,在东亚商贸圈内互通有无。因此,东亚各国的经济合作有着坚实的历史、人文和地理基础。随着经济一体化程度的加深,有利于促进一体化的政府间制度性安排也必将应运而生。当今各方政治领导人的主观意向,只能某种程度延缓或加速这种趋势。     

Northeast Asian Economic Integration: A Region in Flux

Over the last decade, essentially since the Asian crisis of 1997–98, the economic integration of Northeast Asia has been marked by three overarching trends. Economic relations have become: 1) more institutionalized; 2) more “Asian;” and 3) more China-centric. These macro-trends are demonstrated and analyzed in the paper. But by way of anticipation, numerous counter-cutting facts need also to be kept in mind. In essence, recent trends, notable as they are, have by no means reversed three counter-realities: 1) economic ties are still largely driven, less by governments and formal arrangements, than by corporations in search of profits and production efficiencies; 2) despite growing economic interdependence across Northeast Asia and between that sub-region and Southeast Asia, Japan, China and South Korea remain heavily linked to global, and particularly US, markets; and 3) though China is an ever important hub in Northeast Asian trade and investment, Japan remains by far the most powerful economic player in the region.     

Japan-Asia economic relations: Trade, investment, and the economic crisis

Japan has been and will continue to be an important economic player in the Asian region through its internationalization policy involving trade, foreign investments, aid, technical and other forms of economic cooperation. More recently, despite its own domestic problems, Japan has extended financial and other forms of assistance and support to the Asian economies which have been hit by the economic crisis. As it is in its interests that the Asian region survives and recover, Japan will indeed continue to lend a helping hand to Asia, either through unilateral or multilateral forms of assistance or both. Due to growing interdependence, Asia needs Japan and Japan needs Asia. This article analyzes Japan's economic relations with Asia. In particular, it hopes to present an overview of Japan’s involvement in Asia through trade and investments prior to the Asian economic crisis which began in July 1997. Moreover, this article provides an assessment of the crisis and identifies Japan’s responses and involvement towards the economic recovery of the crisis-hit economies in the region. The article draws from earlier versions of various papers presented at conferences and seminars in Washington, D.C. (1997), Japan and Mexico (1998), and Singapore and Thailand (1999).     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

近20年来东南亚华商在中国大陆的投资

1978年中国实行改革开放政策以来,国民经济取得了较快的发展,年平均增长率超过两位数。1980年代以来,东南亚华商的经济实力有了较大的加强,中国与东南亚国家的关系也得到了改善,东南亚华商开始向中国进行投资,尤其是在广东和福建侨乡地区。东南亚华商的投资,极大地促进了侨乡社会经济的发展。东南亚华商在中国引进外资的过程中,起到了先锋和桥梁的作用,在以侨引台、以侨引外等方面起了重要的作用。     

菲律宾2010年经济、政治与外交形势回顾

2010年的菲律宾,经济复苏形势喜人,总体表现好于预期;在国内政治方面,冲突与犯罪不断,和解稳定之路任重道远;外交方面,虽然在发展菲中经贸关系、配合美国东南亚政策以及在南海问题维护本国利益等方面有所斩获,但也因香港游客人质事件与中国关系紧张。     

The PRC,Taiwan, and the overseas Chinese

The rapid growth of China’s economy and its opening to the outside world have attracted a large volume of trade and investment from Hong Kong and Taiwan, creating an economic grouping with a total foreign trade in 1992 almost equal to that of Japan. The economic linkage of this “Greater China” with Southeast Asia’s overseas Chinese communities is steadily growing and will continue to do so for the rest of the decade, barring a sharp drop in the PRC’s growth rate, which seems unlikely.     

The National Wages Council of Singapore: Issues for consideration

There are important regional dimensions to Australia's globalisation. This article focuses on Australia's developing relations with Southeast Asia and argues that the increasing interdependence between the two regions is weakening Australia's liberal democracy while at the same time highlighting the fundamental differences in legitimacy that exist between Australia and its Southeast Asian neighbours. In this context, this article considers important aspects of Australia's military and foreign relations with the region, the state's role in weakening civil society, and the emerging pattern of conflict with Southeast Asia.     

APEC labour markets: Structural change and the Asian financial crisis

This study examines the impacts of longer-term structural changes on the labour markets of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies, as well as the short-run labour market consequences of the Asian financial crisis. All APEC economies have experienced significant structural change in the process of development. A major factor in this structural change has been increased trade intensity (increase in exports and imports as a share of GDP) that has occurred over the last 20 years. Because these structural changes have been extensively induced by trade liberalisation, this study provides insights into the likely consequences of the implementation of APEC's agenda on trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation. The impact of structural change is examined using a range of data, such as disaggregated changes in output and employment by industry and occupation over the period 1980 to 1997, and data on changes in trade intensity for each of the APEC nations. Other data, such as changes in rates of urbanization, are also used to indicate the other important concomitant effects of economic transformation. For several Asian economies, the linear path of growth and structural change was severely disrupted by the Asian financial crisis. This article examines the impact of this crisis on Asian labour markets, in general, and those most affected by the crisis, in particular. In many countries within the region, a failure of education and training systems to respond to often rapid shifts in the skill composition of labour demand is leading to industry and occupation specific labour shortages. International labour migration within the APEC region is viewed as a product of these structural changes and a mechanism that assists in filling gaps in the labour markets of the region's economies.     

Importance of infegrating China and Taiwan into the WTO system

Integrating China and Taiwan into the world economy through accession to the World Trade Organization should contribute to stability in the Asia-Pacific region as well as promote further economic development in the two economies. Taiwan’s export-oriented growth has made it a major trader in the world economy, the fourteenth largest by 1995, and it has shifted from being a net receiver of foreign direct investment to being a net exporter of private capital. Strong trading and investment relationships among overseas Chinese have made a significant difference in the economies of South and East Asia and are now contributing to China’s development. There is a need though for an institutional structure in which to address the bilateral and multilateral dimensions of growing economic relations between China and Taiwan.     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

20世纪末以来中、美与东盟的三边互动关系——以权力转移为视角

中国的崛起对美国和东盟均产生重大影响,导致中、美和东盟在经贸、政治和认知方面形成了互动关系。由于经济领域的区域经济一体化、贸易转移效应和政治领域东亚一体化的排斥效应等因素,中美在东亚的权力关系发生了转移,东亚秩序经历了结构性调整。三方在经贸、政治和认知的互动相互影响并呈正相关关系,使得东亚的权力转移在和平中实现。互动中仍存在一些问题需要三方调适和合作加以解决。     

从印尼五月骚乱看战后东南亚华人问题的成因及对策

印尼的五月骚乱突出了东南亚华人问题。反华排华一直是东南亚的普遍现象。导致东南亚地区华人问题的主要原因是民族经济、政治发展的不平衡、语言的复杂性、以及受冷战格局和所在国与中国关系的影响。为了根本解决东南亚的华人问题 ,华人本身、所在国、中国及国际社会等不同的社会主体应采取不同的措施。     

The Atlantic economy after German unification: Cooperation or the rise of ‘Fortress Europe’

With the end of the cold war and the weakening of the security bond between Europe and the United States, economic relations assume increasing importance. As Europe's dominant economic power, Germany has a central role in the management of the trans‐Atlantic economy. This analysis of economic relations between Germany and the United States shows that whilst investment flows between the two economies suggest common interests and mutual dependence, the structure of German and American trade reveals a strong potential for conflict. Moreover, the experience of the 1980s suggests that economic ties between Germany and the United States are not sufficiently intense to guarantee unconditional cooperation in the management of the Atlantic economy. Divergence in macroeconomic policy has inevitably led to tensions over trade, exchange rates and interest rates. Unless this tendency is checked, the result will be the emergence of ‘Fortress Europe’ with a heightened potential for conflict with the United States.     

Moving Up the Value Chain in ICT: ASEAN Trade With China

The rise of China increased competition for foreign direct investment and exports for the ASEAN economies. It also increased ASEAN trade with China. But, are ASEAN countries able to move up the value chain in their trade with China? The objectives of this article are to examine upgrading in the information and communications technology (ICT) value chain through changes in the product quality of parts and components (PNC) exports from ASEAN to China and the influence of these changes on their ICT trade with China. The main findings indicate that there is little or no product upgrading in the most important SITC 776 sub-component of the PNC exports from the four major ASEAN economies (ASEAN-4) to China after 2005. It is also found that improvements in product quality are more apparent for SITC 772 but this product group constitutes a small share in total manufactured exports from the ASEAN-4 to China. Lastly, with little or no product upgrading, exporters from the ASEAN-4 have shifted to exports of non-PNC goods to China. This shift has enabled the overall ICT exports from the ASEAN-4 to China to continue to grow for the period of this study.     

The Possibility of Economic Reform in North Korea

This article argues that North Korea can achieve an economic catch-up after decades of economic isolation and stagnation by promoting an economic opening focused on foreign trade and investment in a sustained manner. An analogy is been made with the case of Fujian Province in China, which has accomplished economic catch-up, mainly due to Taiwanese investments. To realise its potential, it is argued that North Korea treats its foreign direct investment (FDI) from South Korea as intra-Korean investment. The article also discusses the diverse modes of engagement with foreign capital that are available for North Korea, considering its own capability (absorption or management capabilities), rivalry among possible foreign investors, implications for market structure (monopoly or more competition), the nature of target technologies or facilities, opportunity for learning and transfer, and so forth. Finally, the article discusses the economic and political preconditions for such and economic catch-up.     

Towards a Sociological Understanding of Islamic Radicalism in Indonesia

An upswing in labour costs and currency appreciation during the 1980s caused companies from more advanced Asian economies, such as Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan, to search for new manufacturing sites in order to obtain lower costs. China was one of the main options for these outward investments, with its huge and rapidly growing market, plentiful, low-cost labour and vast territory. The literature on foreign direct investment has analysed the location strategies of multinational enterprises across national borders, but there have been fewer studies of location decisions by foreign investors within the borders of a single country. We examine how companies determine which location offers the best opportunity to establish an assembly-type manufacturing site in China. We surveyed 17 Taiwanese enterprises that have established this kind of manufacturing base in China, and found that the major factors influencing location selection are economics, politics, the cluster effect and bureaucratic efficiency. It was found that the eastern region, which includes Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, was considered better for establishing manufacturing bases than other regions.     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

U.S. hegemony and Southeast Asia

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent “war on terror,” have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.