塔利班卷土重来及其前景分析

在塔利班政权倒台后的两三年中,阿富汗境内暴力事件相对较少,局势一度相对稳定,卡尔扎伊政权建设逐渐步入正轨,阿富汗经济、社会重建进程也取得一定进展.但从2005起,塔利班武装袭击行动日益增多,阿富汗安全形势不断恶化.三年来,特别是进入2008年以后,塔利班武装能力和活动大增,其控制区也不断扩大.塔利班卷土重来已成为现实.     

The Taliban and Islam

This paper examines the aims, motives and methods of the Taliban, the present rulers of most of Afghanistan. In accordance with their fundamentalist views the Taliban have established an Islamic system which focuses on the implementation of Shariah. This paper argues that the Taliban apply directly the divine injunctions which they have drastically sharpened ‐ that means without being sanctioned by act of law of men. The government which the Taliban have set up has so far reached only a low level of institutionalization; the real power emanates from their leader, Mullah Omar.     

The Taliban and Islam

This paper examines the aims, motives and methods of the Taliban, the present rulers of most of Afghanistan. In accordance with their fundamentalist views the Taliban have established an Islamic system which focuses on the implementation of Shariah. This paper argues that the Taliban apply directly the divine injunctions which they have drastically sharpened - that means without being sanctioned by act of law of men. The government which the Taliban have set up has so far reached only a low level of institutionalization; the real power emanates from their leader, Mullah Omar.     

塔利班缘何死灰复燃

9·11事件后,美国以反恐为名发动阿富汗战争,塔利班伊斯兰政权在美军事打击下土崩瓦解.此后4年,塔利班一度消失.从2005年起,塔利班又开始"复燃",特别是2006年在全国各地频繁制造各种恐怖袭击,引起阿局势持续动荡,各类袭击和冲突已造成1700多人死亡.①塔利班重新活跃的原因何在?背后有哪些对其有利的因素?无不引人关注与沉思.     

Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is in danger of capsizing in a perfect storm of insurgency that mimics operations and tactics witnessed in Iraq. This article assesses this insurgency and the re-emergent Taliban. The common view of the Taliban as simply a radical Afghan Islamist movement is overly simple, for that organization has been able to build on tribal kinship networks and a charismatic mullah phenomenon to mobilize a critical and dynamic rural base of support. This support, buttressed by Talib reinforcements from Pakistan's border areas, is enough to frustrate the U.S.-led Coalition's counterinsurgency strategy. At the operational level, the Taliban is fighting a classic “war of the flea,” while the Coalition continues to fight the war largely according to the Taliban “game plan.” This is resulting in its losing the war in Afghanistan one Pashtun village at a time.     

谁的塔利班

一、塔利班简介 "塔利班"一词出自波斯语,意为"宗教学生军"、"宗教学生集团"、"宗教学生组织",塔利班政权作为一个武装集团,其全称为"阿富汗伊斯兰学生运动组织".①苏联从阿富汗撤军后,曾经在反苏战争中并肩作战的各派武装纷纷掉转枪口,为争夺权力相互厮杀,阿富汗再次陷入内战之中.1994年,一个地方军阀绑架并强奸了一名当地妇女,奥马尔不满地方武装骚扰百姓,遂率领800多名伊斯兰学校的学生发动武装起义,袭击了那名军阀,此举极大地震慑了其他地方武装,并得到当地民众的支持.     

塔利班领导人奥马尔其人其事

1994年10月,在深陷内战灾难的阿富汗南部突然崛起一支新的武装派别——塔利班运动(意即“伊斯兰学校学生运动”)。它1996年9月攻克首都喀布尔并建立政权,至2000年11月夺取了95％的国土,成为阿国内政坛上最重要的一支政治军事力量。这支力量的首领就是一直蒙着一层神秘面纱的毛拉穆罕默德·奥马尔。由于这位毛拉在其控制区还推行极端的伊斯兰原教旨主义统治,所以6年来一直不被国际社会承认。特别是由于他及其领导下的塔利班与本·拉登关系甚深,而美锁定本·拉登是“9·11”恐怖袭击事件的主谋,因此,目前塔利班和本·拉登正在遭到美英的军事打击。他们能否逃过这场劫难,人们只能拭目以待。     

和平稳定难临阿富汗

10月7日,美、英开始空袭阿富汗塔利班控制区内的防空力量和机场、重要军事设施、拉丹训练营地等“硬件”,反塔北方联盟在美、英空袭配合下,又得到俄罗斯、伊朗、印度、中亚国家后勤补给方面大力援助,在战场上节节推进。为保持有生力量,塔利班先放弃了马扎里沙里夫、塔卢坎等北方城市,11月13日又主动撤离喀布尔、东部城市贾拉拉巴德、西部城市赫拉特,北方联盟当日进驻喀布尔。目前,北方联盟外长阿卜杜拉和国防部长法西姆意欲建立塔吉克族主导下的“后塔利班政权”,美、英则推动联合国出面加紧筹建“过渡政府”。阿富汗能否从近23年的战乱走向和平?笔者认为,和平尚难降临,内战将持续的可能难以排除。     

De-antagonising the Other: Changing Constructions of the Taliban and the Possibility of Reconciliation

Shortly after 9/11 any kind of engagement, let alone reconciliation, with the Taliban was considered absurd. Recently, however, Afghan as well as Western elites have announced that they are now willing to talk to parts of the Taliban in an attempt to begin a reconciliation process in Afghanistan. This article focuses on the discourse theoretical framework developed by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe and illustrates the merits of such an approach for explaining how such a shift became possible. It argues that the turn to reconciliation with the Taliban was enabled by a transformation of the discursive construction of the Taliban. The article focuses on the discursive dynamics of the (de)coupling and differentiation of signifiers as a central mechanism of meaning production. It argues that antagonistic identity constructions in the context of the global war on terror formed the discursive background against which the Taliban were first articulated as part of the terrorist “Other”, which made any engagement impossible. From 2009 onwards, however, it can be observed how the signifier “Taliban” was decoupled from the identity of the “terrorist”, how it transcended the antagonistic frontier and came to be seen as an entity worthy of engagement.     

Caribbean Taliban: Cuban American Terrorism in the 1970s

ABSTRACT

Most scholars have not taken Cuban-American terrorism in the 1970s seriously, despite the unprecedented campaign of terror it unleashed. Borrowing a framework of self-identity usually applied to other terrorist groups and using case studies of the Cuban Nationalism Movement in New Jersey and of Alpha 66 in Florida, this article argues that Cuban-American political ideology was the key to its impact and its support from communities in Florida and New Jersey. Militant exiles saw themselves as betrayed by two enemy states, entitled to rule in their homeland, and imbued with a mission of civilizational renewal. In these ways, Cuban-American terrorists were similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan and their reign of terror in the 1970s should be appreciated as a major episode in the history of U.S. and global terrorism.     

Central Asian Countries: Learning to Live Next to the Taliban

With the withdrawal of the US and coalition forces from Afghanistan and the rapid takeover by the Taliban, most Central Asian governments recognized the Taliban in a pragmatic decision to peacefully coexist with the neighboring extremist regime that will likely remain in power for the foreseeable future. Tajikistan is, however, denying the Taliban recognition and indirectly supporting the resistance movement in Panjshir. The political and human catastrophe in Afghanistan is threatening to boost autocratic tendencies and further deepen political gaps in Central Asian societies. This article discusses the rationale behind each Central Asian government’s approach to the Talibanized Afghanistan and the looming domestic and external challenges to the region.     

中国国家粮食安全战略演进及前瞻

粮食安全始终是关系中国国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家安全的全局性战略问题。自新中国成立以来,通过多次粮食战略的调整,已经形成了相对完善的粮食安全保障体系。中国的粮食产量总体上呈现的是波动式增长的趋势,这种增长与中央粮食战略的调整均有一定关系。国家粮食战略经过了20世纪50年代的从互助组到统购统销、60年代的进口粮食缓解粮食危机、70和80年代的家庭联产承包责任制直至21世纪初期至今的从取消农业税到严防死守18亿亩耕地红线这样一个过程。中国粮食安全面临粮农种粮的相对收益较低的结构性矛盾,要解决这一矛盾,必须从国家层面加大投入资本和提高基础设施建设能力,大力推动农业科技创新,努力在提高粮食生产能力上挖掘新潜力,在优化农业结构上开辟新途径,在转变农业发展方式上寻求新突破,在促进农民增收上获得新成效。自2004年以来,中共中央、国务院"一号文件"多次聚焦"三农"问题,始终强调粮食安全的重要性,这凸显了国家在协调粮食政策运转过程中的重要作用及中共中央对粮食安全的高度重视。只有保住"安全口粮和放心粮",才能保证中国到21世纪中叶顺利达到中等发达国家水平。     

The Status Quo and Prospect of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation System

The current international financial crisis is posing a grave threat to the security of the world, and has brought about deep-going and complicated changes to the area of international nuclear non- proliferation. Generally speaking, the existing international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism is still functioning, nonetheless, it is also facing severe challenges and the situation is worrying.     

中印关系的发展前景

上世纪90年代以来,中印关系稳步发展,近年来更迈上一个新的台阶。未来两国关系的进一步改善与发展,既有国际关系理念上的共识和经贸、科技合作上的互补需求等有利条件,也有在两国边界划定、双方缺乏足够的战略互信等方面的障碍和困难。总的趋势是,双方的战略合作伙伴关系将得到加强,中印的共同繁荣将为亚洲乃至世界的和平与发展做出积极贡献。     

日本地方国有企业的现状及前景

战后以来 ,日本的地方国有企业无论从数量上来看 ,还是从规模上来看 ,都有了很大的发展 ,它们为战后日本经济尤其是地方经济的发展作出了相当大的贡献。但是 ,自 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,由于日本经济的持续低迷 ,这些地方国有企业大多发生亏损 ,再加上日本国家及地方政府的财政危机日益深重 ,迫使日本的地方政府寻求新路 ,期望通过引入民间活力的办法来搞活地方经济和地方国有企业。但笔者认为 ,日本地方国有企业的前景不容乐观。     

南方共同市场货币一体化进程与前景分析

作为世界上首个完全由发展中国家组建的共同市场,南方共同市场自1991年建立以来不仅极大推动了南美经济一体化发展,也成为拉美乃至世界政治经济舞台上的重要力量。南共市是否能实现货币一体化不仅直接影响成员国之间经贸合作,而且对集团乃至整个南美一体化深化发展也将有重要意义。本文通过对南共市实行货币一体化内外动因及进程的分析与回顾,从最优货币区理论角度对其宏观经济趋同性等进行研究,对该地区建立货币联盟的可行性及前景进行探讨。     

老挝电影发展历程及前景探析

老挝电影发展的过程时断时续,总体来看作品欠丰。实际上,自电影产生以来,老挝电影一直艰难地追随在世界电影之后。虽然困难重重,但老挝电影在发展道路上不断探索,建立民族电影文化的强烈意愿值得肯定和赞赏。从艺术或商业角度来看,老挝电影虽未有大成就,但它的质朴、简约是独特而具魅力的,是世界电影中一道靓丽的风景。     

The Prospect of Sino-US Maritime Conflict and Cooperation

Oceans provide an important arena for the United States to implement its global strategies. Therefore, maintaining absolute control of oceans builds the core of US geopolitical strategies.1 Since the beginning of the 21st Century, with the rapid growth of China＇s sea power and intensification of disputes between China and its neighboring countries over maritime rights and interests, the United States has been making greater efforts to contain and deter China at sea. This inevitably exasperated the conflict between the two countries. However, the conflict between China and the United States at sea is different from the Cold War type of confrontation between the United States and former Soviet Union, because there still exist broad spaces for cooperation between the two countries.     

中韩两国在制造业的合作前景分析

在中韩两国的竞争关系日趋增强的今天,仍然存在产业合作的巨大空间。中韩两国的产业合作是以实现共赢为目的的,可能的合作领域包括韩国的制造企业与中国的原材料和零部件制造企业之间稳定的合作关系的建立、企业之间的共同开发以及在反对贸易保护主义、减少过剩生产能力、形成世界标准等方面。     

The Prospect of Sino-India Economic Co-operation

Both China and Indiahave a long history and thetwo countries have madeimportant contributions tothe development of thecivilizations ofthe mankind.Today, the two countrieshave rekindled their vigorand risen up in the wavesof the globalization.In more than …