New estimates of U.S. currency abroad,the domestic money supply and the unreported economy

Despite financial innovations that have created important new substitutes for cash usage, per capita holdings of U.S. currency amount to $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a 287 billion windfall for U.S. taxpayers. Overseas currency stock data are also used to derive estimates of the domestically held stock of currency as well as narrow and broad measures of domestic monetary aggregates. These domestic monetary aggregates are believed to be better predictors of future economic activity than traditional monetary aggregates and are tested to determine their ability to predict fluctuations in real output and prices. Domestic cash holdings are finally used to estimate the size of the U.S. unreported economy as measured by the amount of income that is not properly reported to the IRS. By 2010, we estimate that legal and illegal source unreported income” is $1.9–$1.9–2.4 trillion, implying a “tax gap” in the range of $400–$400–540 billion. Currently, we estimate that 18–23% of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS.     

An input-output approach to the measurement of the information economy

This study presents a set of methods based on input-output analysis to measure the size and structure of a country's information economy. Published current national data bases do not identify even the broad contours of a country's information economy. The methodology which is stylised algebraically using input-output modelling unravels the latent information economy. Both the primary or marketed information activities and the non-marketed or secondary information activities are measured. The interdependencies of the primary and secondary information sectors with the non-information sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are examined. Linkages and multipliers are also calculated using consistent approaches. Finally, the methodology is empirically validated using Australia as a case-study and the results are discussed.     

Regulating E-commerce: Formal Transactions in the Digital Age

As digital transactions become more common the need to regulate the commercial frontier of cyberspace becomes increasingly urgent. This has been recognised by national governments, supranational bodies and international organisations. The regulations proposed have though been offered in a piecemeal fashion. National governments attempt to fit cyberspace within the four corners of their (familiar) domestic jurisprudence, and even supranational and international bodies have been guilty of simply extending previous rules to the realm of cyberspace. This paper suggests that a coherent approach to the regulation of electronic commerce may start with an identification and application of principles rather than with the transference of rules. It uses as a reference, proposals for the modernisation of land transfer systems introduced in Canada and Australasia, currently being evaluated by the Keeper of the Registers of Scotland and the Law Commission/HM Registry. Underlying these proposals is a central issue: how are traditional formal requirements for property transactions accommodated in cyberspace? More fundamentally, if that most formal of transactions, the transfer of real property, can be modernised to meet the challenge of a new digital age, can not all modes of commerce be similarly modernised for the digital era? This paper evaluates whether a principled approach to answering these questions can, more generally, provide a workable framework for approaching e-commerce regulation.     

Fatal Firearm Injuries in Tennessee: A Comparison Study of Tennessee's Two Most Populous Counties 2009–2012

Firearm injuries are a leading cause of violent death in Tennessee. This study was designed to compare the demographic and epidemiologic features of fatal firearm injuries in Shelby County and Davidson County, Tennessee between 2009 and 2012. We identified 1081 gunshot fatalities for the study period in these two counties. Shelby County had a higher overall, age‐adjusted gunshot mortality rate, a higher male age‐adjusted gunshot mortality rate, and a higher age‐adjusted gunshot homicide rate than Davidson. Age groups 25–34 years and 35–44 years had higher crude mortality rates for gunshot deaths in Shelby County than Davidson County. Both counties had higher age‐adjusted gunshot mortality rates for black males than white males, higher homicide rate for black race than white, and higher suicide rate for white race than black. Homicide was the most common manner of death, and handguns were the most common type of firearm used in both counties.     

Solving the legal challenges of trustworthy online identity

Digital identity management is fundamental to the further development of the Internet economy. It is a foundational requirement for most substantive e-commerce transactions and other online activities.     

National planning for locally controlled health systems: the Finnish experience

The World Health Organization considers Finland's health planning system to be among the most successful in the developed world. Despite tight resource constraints--symbolized by total health expenditures held consistently to less than 7 percent of gross domestic product--the Finns have built up a strong primary care sector and dramatically improved the overall availability and accessibility of needed services. This article compares the official health planning system with the actual planning process as experienced within one Finnish central hospital district. The official planning system seeks to integrate national strategic goals with local municipal ownership, administration, and funding of service delivery. The actual planning process within the studied district suggests that technically oriented civil servants at the regional level may be at least as important in the overall decisionmaking structure. The article concludes with a brief exploration of this finding's potential consequences for the long-term development of the Finnish health care system and for national health planning efforts generally.     

网络交易的纠纷解决机制探析——基于民间法与国家法互补的视角

高风险一度是网络交易发展的瓶颈所在。近年来,网络交易平台发挥网络科技的优势,为交易者提供了一些独特的风险防范和纠纷解决机制,极大地促进了网络交易的发展规模。但此种民间型机制的局限和优势一样明显,未能有效＂定分止争＂。要真正保障网络交易的稳定发展,最大程度上解决交易纠纷,除进一步发展和规范民间型机制外,尚需对传统的官方型机制予以适当的＂网络化改造＂,最终形成两者的良性互补。     

Crime,politics, and minority populations: Use of official statistics in the united states and Japan

Although the governments of the United States and Japan differ markedly in racial ideology, official crime statistics in both nations reflect political arrangements which marginalize minority populations. In both nations, official crime statistics reveal more about the attempts of majority populations to label minority populations as a criminal class than about variations in criminal behavior across racial populations. While there is no racially pure Black population in the United States, there is a “black” category within official statistics, and the statistics are used to justify crime control policies which have a disparate impact on the diverse peoples who are socially‐perceived as Black. While there are undeniably non‐Japanese populations in Japan, there are no racial categories for them in official statistics which define them out of existence; except where crime statistics are concerned, so that the police can monitor the criminality of “foreigners.” In both societies, official categorization of race in crime statistics implies that crime is a minority problem; government statistics reinforce official ideology that crimes by “foreigners” and “black violence” are the real threats to civil society.     

商业受贿罪主体拓展的论理分析——以国家工作人员的界定为视角

商业受贿罪在我国刑法史上,经历了从无到有,逐渐从受贿罪中分离出来,并趋于逐步完善的过程.刑法第93条将国有公司、企业中从事公务的人员以及受国有公司、企业委派到非国有公司、企业中从事公务的人员列入国家工作人员的范围,实属不当.这些人员构成受贿的,应按照商业受贿罪定罪处罚,即使是国家机关工作人员,如果被委派到国有公司、企业或者其他单位,只要从事的是商业活动,有受贿行为的,同样应按照商业受贿罪论处.     

涉诉信访的“问题化”逻辑与治理之道

涉诉信访在当下中国俨然已经成为关涉政治大局、社会稳定和国计民生的重大问题,被广泛地视为一种严峻的社会危机而予以问题化,并因此成为全社会的攻关对象。但是,直观地将涉诉信访问题看作主要是司法部门自身问题产物的观点是不周延的,也不利于寻求有效的对策以应对之。对涉诉信访问题的成因应采取系统论的分析进路,在立法、行政、司法三大国家机构系统化处理社会纠纷流程的实证分析中去发现涉诉信访问题的真相:信访问题不过是弱势群体民生困境的制度性反射。因此,应以制度创新和综合治理应对涉诉信访问题。     

Mafia markers: assessing organized crime and its impact upon societies

This study develops a causal model of the independent effect of organized crime, rule of law, and corruption on national wealth. To measure the level of organized crime a Composite Organized Crime Index (COCI) is constructed combining data on the perceived prevalence of organized crime, unsolved homicides, grand corruption, money-laundering and the extent of the black economy, drawing on the World Economic Forum’s annual surveys among CEOs of larger companies, the Merchant International Group’s assessments of investment risks in 150 countries, studies by the World Bank Institute, and official crime statistics. The findings of the explorative analysis show that a political strategy of tolerating activities of local criminal groups in the hope of beneficial effects on the wealth of a nation is unlikely to bring the expected results. Although some types of organized crime may bring in significant revenues, tolerating Mafia-type activities implies letting the Trojan horse of racketeering and grand corruption into the walls of government.

Agricultural drug economies: cause or alternative to intra-state conflicts?

Through case studies selected among the world’s main drug-producer countries and regions (Afghanistan, Bolivia, Burma, Colombia, Morocco, Peru, and West Africa) this paper depicts the global scene in order to improve understanding of how agricultural illicit drug economies may foster the emergence of intra-state conflicts, help prolong intra-state conflicts or, conversely, prevent some crises. The paper thereby examines the complex connections between agricultural illicit drug production and intra-state conflict in the all-important context of underdevelopment and globalisation. Because it is illegal, drug production may affect international security, above all through the armed violence it creates and the uses to which resulting profits are put (financing of armed groups and criminal organisations, and even – as has been recently though mostly erroneously claimed – terrorist organisations [4, 5]. However, it is important to avoid restricting the question of drug production to security issues, and instead to examine the phenomenon overall in an analysis encompassing everything from the causes of the recourse to an illegal drug economy to the effects of official responses. Through case studies selected from the main regions of illegal agricultural drug production (Afghanistan, West Africa, Burma (Myanmar), Bolivia, Colombia, Morocco and Peru) this paper aims at improving our understanding of how such production might foster the emergence of conflicts, ease their prolongation or, conversely, prevent crises in certain situations. These three questions require examining the connections between the agricultural economy of illegal drugs and conflict in the all-important context of underdevelopment and of globalisation.     

Organized economic crime and corruption in Urkraine: The problem of countermeasures

The collapse of communism in Ukraine created opportunities for organized criminal groups to expand their economic criminal activities in the “shadow economy” by penetrating all levels of public and economic administration. Ukrainian law enforcement agencies are poorly equipped to handle this increase in criminal activity, especially with respect to uncooperative foreign and domestic economic institutions. State machinery for regulation and control of industry and commerce was easily accessible to organized crime through bribing of state officials, who received no supervision during economic restructuring. Notwithstanding the active assistance of corrupt government officials, organized economic crime has benefited from chaos and lost government control as the result of recent economic reforms in Ukraine. Researchers in this study hypothesize that the social and economic disorder, as well as a common and justified mistrust of state officials, fosters a pessimism and erodes moral standards, which in turn fosters criminal activity. Of late, judicial sentencing for those convicted of economic crimes has become lighter while many economic criminal cases are never investigated or prosecuted in the first place. In order to combat large-scale corruption, there must be better supervision of government officials and better monitoring of foreign economic transactions. One of the most disastrous consequences of the collapse of the Ukrainian communist system has been the widespread increase of economic crime. This phenomenon is self-sustaining, penetrating all levels of Ukraine's economy and administrative sectors. Criminal activity helps to sustain the shadow economy in Ukraine, which has been estimated by various sources to constitute 50 to 60 percent of the economy. Law enforcement and administrative efforts have been largely futile in curbing this corruption. Nevertheless, it is possible to overcome the criminal social and economic order that has become ingrained in this “shadow economy.” This paper seeks to propose policy solutions for Ukrainian economic crime and corruption that could be implemented at the national level.     

Criminals and service providers: Cross-national dirty economies

This article examines the recent evolution of transnational crime. By focusing on two specific criminal activities, namely the trafficking in human beings and the illicit trafficking in arms, it tries to establish the relationship between conventional criminal organisations and the official economy. It concludes by observing that the illegal services provided by conventional criminals to official economic actors are made increasingly redundant, because the latter tend to set up their own illegal practices which service their activity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The case of the two-percent assessment and the question of union susceptibility

In 1934, the Chicago Mafia, or Outfit, arranged to have a mob associate, George Browne, elected as the national president of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employes (IATSE). Subsequently Outfit leaders used Browne to perpetrate a massive embezzlement scheme from this union. For 18 months IATSE members paid a two-percent assessment from their wages into a special fund. That money was later siphoned out in the form of cash payments that went mainly to Browne, a co-conspirator, and the Outfit. The amount taken would be equivalent to about twenty million dollars today. The episode previewed the schemes that organized crime groups later used to mulct union benefit funds from the Teamsters and other labor organizations in the post-World War II era. Such schemes depended upon the wide scale complacency of the leadership within the affected national unions. This article uses the history of IATSE’s two-percent assessment to analyze the reasons behind that complacency. In this way it addresses the question of why unions might be more susceptible to organized crime manipulation than other institutions.     

The appraisal remedy and merger premiums

The appraisal remedy affords corporate shareholders the optionto redeem their shares for cash in the event of certain transactions,including mergers. Access to appraisal for publicly traded shares,however, differs from state to state. We present the first large-sampleempirical study of the effect of appraisal rights on targetshareholder gains from acquisitions. We examine 1,350 mergersinvolving publicly held firms. We find some evidence that appraisalreduces average shareholder gains in transactions involvingself-interested managers. For the entire sample, however, wefind no evidence that appraisal has any effect, positive ornegative, on target shareholder gains from takeovers.     

Bad but Stable

Russia's fiscal system was destabilized in 2015 because of the fall in national oil revenues. The budget crisis resulted in a sustained fall in personal income, which in turn led to a fall in consumption. This in turn resulted in a decline in trade and investment. These trends were present in the majority of Russia's regions. Russia's industrial slump, on the other hand, was relatively small and did not last long, in large part due to continued investment and growth in the defense industry. The sustained industrial production, combined with the buffer of a substantial pool of foreign migrant labor, allowed for stable employment figures. Overall, the Russian economy was better able to adapt to the deterioration in conditions than most expected.     

Bail decision making and pretrial detention

Bail practices became the target of reform efforts during the 1960's and 1970's not only because of issues concerning economic bias against indigent defendants but also because of criticism of the bail decision itself. Questions were raised about the appropriate uses of bail (e.g., to prevent flight or pretrial crime, or to inflict pretrial punishment), the rationality of the criteria relied on by judges in deciding bail, and the discretionary allocation of pretrial detention through high cash bail. In this article, case law and statutes governing bail practices in the United States are reviewed first to characterize the ambiguous legal framework from within which bail judges must operate. Then bail decisions in a large urban jurisdiction are analyzed as a case study to discover the factors most influential in determining pretrial release options. It is inferred that, even after years of reform, community-ties measures do not play a major role in the bail decision or the determination of pretrial custody; rather, the nature of the charged offense appears most influential. A finding of special significance is that a large proportion of these decisions could not be explained systematically (i.e., a large share of variance remained unexplained). The article concludes by suggesting a guidelines approach to bail that could narrow disparity in bail options and the use of detention, enhance the rationality of the decision process and contribute to more equitable pretrial practices.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, Toronto, August, 1978. This research was supported, in part, by a grant from the Statistics Division of the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration to the Criminal Justice Research Center. Points of view or opinions stated are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of policies of the U.S. Department of Justice.     

Policyholder Litigation Challenging the Claims-Handling Conduct of Resolute Management

Over the past decade, Berkshire Hathaway has engaged in numerous “retroactive reinsurance” transactions whereby it takes on another insurer's long-tail environmental and asbestos coverage obligations in exchange for payment of a large sum of cash by the insurer. The cash that Berkshire receives from the insurer typically is the amount of cash that the insurer had reserved to pay policyholder claims on these coverage obligations. Warren Buffet has referred to these large sums received from an insurer as “float,” characterized as “money that doesn't belong to us but that we get to invest for Berkshire's benefit.” The lure of holding on to float for investment purposes has led to aggressive efforts by Berkshire's claims-handling unit, Resolute Management, to reduce and delay claims payments to policyholders. In response, a number of policyholders have initiated lawsuits and other proceedings against Berkshire entities and their related insurers.     

Accumulation of explosives in hair--part II: factors affecting sorption

This study examines the sorption of eight explosives (2,4,6-trinitrotoluene [TNT]; pentaerythritol tetranitrate [PETN]; hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-s-triazine [RDX]; diacetone diperoxide [DADP]; triacetone triperoxide [TATP]; ethylene glycol [EGDN], nitroglycerin [NG]; and 2,4-dinitrotoluene [DNT]) to human hair. The study uses only cut hair, which is exposed to explosive vapor. The vapor transfer studies reported herein indicated that hair did not reach saturation even after 2.5 years of exposure to TNT. While previous studies showed black hair sorbed more explosive than blond or brown, this study reports that red hair sorption is similar to black, while grey hairs, exposed along with black hair from the same individual, sorbed significantly less explosive than the same individual's black hairs. In a study using only black hair, a slight racial bias was observed with sorption greater for Mongoloid hair as compared to Caucasian or Negroid. Only for Mongoloid hairs were enough samples studied to examine for a gender bias, but one was not observed. There was much variability in results in all categories (hair color, race, and gender) that trends were established only in general terms. Hair at different ages was tested for a few individuals. Detailed studies focused on the sorption of TATP and TNT as these appear to be sorbed most differently-TATP mainly on the hair surface and TNT both on the surface and in the cortex. The uptake of high vapor pressure explosives (e.g., TATP) and moderate vapor pressure explosives (e.g., TNT) by hair was rapid and could be detected within about 1 h of exposure. Both explosives were readily sorbed by pure melanin.