A recurring anarchy? The emergence of climate change as a threat to international peace and security

Robert Kaplan's 1994 article, ‘The Coming Anarchy’ was a milestone in the literature on the links between environmental change and security. The article predicted that disease, corruption, overpopulation, scarce resources and climate change would plunge West Africa into pervasive conflict. Nearly a decade and a half—and several civil wars—later this article returns to West Africa to see to what extent Kaplan's predictions have come to pass. While West Africa may not have followed exactly the trajectory that Kaplan foresaw, he did correctly predict that climate change would be recognised as a threat to international security. This paper reviews in greater detail the development of conceptualisations of environment and security that influence current discussions over the potential impacts of climate change on security, paying particular attention to the ways in which West Africa is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.     

Meeting the challenges to scaling up HIV/AIDS treatment in Africa

AIDS-related morbidity and mortality not only affects individuals and their families, but is rapidly undermining African states' capacity to develop. Stemming the impacts of the pandemic has therefore become a major concern. This calls for meeting the needs for care and support of those affected, and increasing the access of persons living with HIV/AIDS to effective treatment. Provision of such complex medication in resource-limited settings is a fairly recent phenomenon. In this context, the article builds on emerging experiences from the field in identifying issues and challenges that need to be addressed in order to facilitate the scaling-up of HIV/AIDS treatment in Africa.     

Global Society's Response to HIV/AIDS: Botswana's Experience

Approximately 37% of Botswana's population was HIV-positive in 2005. This study examines Botswana's experience of the HIV/AIDS threat in order to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the response by global society. Botswana is particularly useful in evaluating the pandemic threat and national and global responses since it is considered a sub-Saharan leader in establishing a national infrastructure of HIV/AIDS governance—one closely coordinated with global society's infrastructure and culture of HIV/AIDS governance. This paper argues that a polyarchic notion of governance and authority has relevance to the sphere of HIV/AIDS governance and this is evident in Botswana's experience. This study analyses the key features of the global response to the pandemic. It then explains and evaluates Botswana's administrative, financial and operational responses to the pandemic. The paper concludes by identifying critical policy challenges for the further development of effective global–national HIV/AIDS governance.     

Communication,choice and freedom with reference to risk in aspects of communication on HIV/AIDS

Abstract

Where analysis concludes that a context is characterised by high risk, as in thecase given HIV/AIDS in South Africa, individual choice and freedom are often negated, for instance, by social scientists when they resort to the statistical logic of large numbers. Ironically, given that knowledge and rationality are arguably related, the choice and freedom of the individual deemed not to have knowledge about a given issue, is questioned and soon negated. By focusing on the black people in South africa, as a key example, it is argued that such analyses and solutions deny the existential possibilities of the people. The aim of this article is to affirm an individual's possibilities. The situation of the individual who communicates is recalled to argue against approaches that variously seek to blame the individual.

In the time of HIV/AIDS, ideas such as those of Søren Kiekegaard should be engaged to advance understanding of the limitations and possibilities of the individual who communicates. In the trasition from understanding to acting on information on HIV/AIDS, the individual has the freedom to choose. This is humbling for communication scientists and practioners who seek to prevent the further spread of HIV/AIDS.     

The dynamics of contemporary local-government policies and economic development in West Papua

There have been enormous political, economic, and social changes in West Papua. Every governor of West Papua has designed programmes to boost economic development and reduce poverty. The influx of migrant workers under the ‘transmigration programme’ into West Papua has limited the job opportunities for indigenous people in the labour market. This article concludes that the local government's strategies failed to deliver suitable development programmes to the local people, which resulted in increased poverty, the continuing poor development of the education system, and the deterioration of the population's health condition, with a rise in the number of Papuans infected with HIV and AIDS.     

Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008

This article examines the role of economic inequality in influencing the risk of armed conflict between communal groups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that socioeconomic inequality can generate intergroup grievances, which, due to the exclusionary legitimacy of the African state and elite incentives to engage in competitive mobilization of communal groups, precipitate violent communal conflict. To examine this argument, we rely on a series of household surveys to construct subnational inequality measures. For each region, we calculate measures of inequality in terms of household welfare and education between individuals (vertical inequality) and between ethnic groups (horizontal inequality). Combining the inequality data with new georeferenced data on communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1990–2008, we find that regions with strong socioeconomic inequalities—both vertical and horizontal—are significantly more exposed to violent communal conflicts. More specifically, regions in which the largest ethnic group is severely disadvantaged compared to other groups are particularly prone to experience communal conflict.     

Electoral Violence in Africa Revisited

This article addresses the still unsettled question of the incidence of violent election periods in Africa. It uses two new datasets, which report episodes of social conflict in the region for 1990–2011, and elections worldwide from 1960 to 2010. When combined, these data suggest that onsets of electoral violence peak around major election days in Africa as a whole, but with wide national variability in the volume of new episodes. Depending on the time span and type of social conflict, from one-quarter to three-quarters of the elections for national leadership have been without incident. The article also investigates the timing of electoral violence and the extent to which there is an experience curve effect, whereby subsequent elections have fewer onsets of social conflict. The data indicate that two-thirds to three-quarters of elections are free of onsets of social conflict, but that the proportion does not change much with experience. Overall, there appear to be reasonable grounds for optimism about peaceful elections in many African countries.     

Mitigating the impact of HIV and AIDS on rural livelihoods in Southern Africa

A variety of interventions to mitigate the increasing impact of the HIV and AIDS epidemic on smallholder agricultural production and food security are currently implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. However, documentation and dissemination of such interventions is limited and patchy. Building on emerging experiences from the field, this article seeks to move beyond charting the impacts of HIV and AIDS on rural livelihoods to review existing mitigation policies and programmes, identify the challenges to mitigation, and provide suggestions for future mitigation strategies and policy priorities. The experiences cited in the article are mainly drawn from the hardest-hit regions in Southern and Eastern Africa, but they provide useful lessons for AIDS-affected rural communities in other contexts. The main conclusion is that, as current initiatives are to a large extent ad hoc and localised, there is a need for documentation, dissemination, and scaling up of existing interventions, as well as greater coherence and co-ordination in policies and programmes to extend their reach and make the most of limited resources.     

Probiotics in Tanzania: a multi-partner development project

This article critically examines an HIV/AIDS development and research project in Mwanza, Tanzania. A group of women produce a type of probiotic yoghurt that has provided evidence of lowering the incidence of HIV infection. The yoghurt is consumed by the women, their family members, and local citizens living with HIV/AIDS; surplus is sold within the community. While the project's multi-partner, multi-disciplinary composition allows for varied expertise and insights, it also requires open and collaborative dialogue. This article discusses the project's challenges, positive outcomes, and some of the socio-cultural issues that need to be addressed if it expands in size and/or scope.     

Stemming the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa: Are our HIV/AIDS campaigns failing us?

Abstract

Media-based campaigns are critical tools in changing the behaviours that are fuelling the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa. However, given the absence of an effective behaviour-change response in the face of the epidemic, many have come to doubt the efficacy of these campaigns. Campaign designers who profess to using best-practice principles in designing HIV/AIDS campaigns also report that although some of these campaigns book changes in beliefs and attitudes, they seldom have a significant effect on the behaviours that are fuelling the epidemic.

This situation raises a number of general questions with regard to South African HIV/AIDS campaigns: How effective are media-based campaigns in general in changing health-related behaviours? Are South African HIV/AIDS campaigns successful or not? If not, why not, what could be done to optimise their efficacy? What aspects of South African HIV/AIDS campaigns contribute to their efficacy and could be up-scaled in future campaigns?

This article provides a critical analysis of the processes followed in the design of the Living Positively Campaign and of the design features of the messaging of the booklet Living positively with HIV and AIDS. This analysis clearly indicates that despite claims by campaign designers of adherence to best-practice heuristics, very few of them are implemented in the design of HIV/AIDS campaigns.     

Radicalisation and violent extremism in West Africa: implications for African and international security

This article interrogates emerging trends and patterns in the process of radicalisation and violent extremism in West Africa and the implications for regional and international security regimes, practices and thinking. It argues that there are real and imagined challenges of radicalisation and violent extremism. The overarching view is that the emergence of intra- and extra-African preoccupation with violent extremism alone, rather than alongside seriously addressing its structural undercurrents related to preventing and interrupting the process of radicalisation, distorts the security realities and further exacerbates the security situation in Africa. Radicalisation and violent extremism further integrates West Africa into global security assemblages, yet the absence or non-incorporation of an indigenous African (civil society) perspective or counter-narrative about radicalisation and violent extremism uncritically fuses and conflates the strategic interests of major powers with the local realities in Africa. Moreover, there is a huge potential that national governments could exploit local, regional and international interests in counteracting terrorism for domestic political advantages, such as mis-characterisation of subsisting conflicts, regular political opposition and other local grievances as cases of terrorism, thereby risking a deterioration in security conditions.     

Combining worker and user interests in the health sector: trade unions and NGOs

This paper examines the relationship between workers in the health sector and users of health services as seen through two case studies of trade unions and NGOs working together, one in Malaysia and the other in South Africa. Despite a history of tensions between these two types of organisation, when they work together effectively the results can be influential. The Malaysia Citizens' Health Initiative has set up a separate organisation and now has the power to mediate differences between trade unions, NGOs, and the government. The partnership between the Treatment Action Campaign and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) in South Africa is providing a unified voice demanding government action on HIV/AIDS.     

Speaking the language of security: the Commonwealth,the Francophonie and the CPLP in conflict management in Africa

The last decade has seen an unprecedented increase in conflict management activities in Africa by international organisations. This has been accompanied by a flurry of academic publications and of policy reports that stress the comparative advantages at the legal and operational levels of regional and other intergovernmental organisations. The article assesses this dominant favourable view by examining the role of the Commonwealth, the Francophonie and the CPLP in Africa. Traditionally regarded as cultural organisations, they have gradually extended their profile to include a security mandate. Drawing from fieldwork and an extensive review of the literature, the article presents the first comparative study of the conflict management activities of these organisations in Africa.     

Separating the Sheep from the Goats among Africa's Separatist Movements

Currently at least 12 separatist/secessionist movements are engaged in negotiations or campaigns of violence (guerrilla and regular armed conflict) in Africa. But though they are agreed on the need for radical constitutional change, they are not agreed on the solutions. More than that, they rarely maintain a unity of aim within their ranks at any given moment of time, or a consistency of aim over time. It is these shifting political objectives and the nature of the calculations behind them that this article intends to examine. At every stage of the conflict the movements' leaders have to assess the advantages of a secessionist policy as opposed to a separatist (or re-negotiated unitary state) policy. This article finds that among the most crucial factors to be weighed are popular support, state response, international recognition, and personal opportunities. There are important consequences of this shifting of political objectives. It makes typologies based on their political objectives and/or methods of limited value; political support problematic; attempts by governments to induce separatist leaders to defect or compromise worthwhile; and certain elements in the population of the homeland more vulnerable. This is the biggest hindrance to successful separatist movements.     

A policy critique of HIV/AIDS and demobilisation

The objective of this paper is to draw out and encourage debate on the relationship between HIV and the policy challenges that it poses for security. It explores how demobilisation programmes need to incorporate a development perspective, bringing together public health practitioners and security experts, in order to address the pandemic and the future security needs of Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular. It is hoped that integrating two very different disciplines, public policy and public health, will mark the beginning of attempts to establish some practical guidelines for policymakers and field practitioners that focus on prevention. Most important, the paper makes an urgent request for a cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral approach to tackling such a complex problem as HIV and the military. Development practitioners once shunned any working relationship with armed forces or defence ministries, but it is impossible now to avoid these institutions in countries with high rates of HIV/AIDS in the security sector.     

The security–development nexus and securitization in the EU's policies towards developing countries

This article assesses how and to what extent the European Union (EU) uses a security perspective to define and shape its relationship with the developing world. In order to evaluate the EU's development policy and its relations with developing countries we link the concept of ‘security–development nexus’ with the concept of ‘securitization’. The article examines whether securitization can be observed with regard to four dimensions: discourse, policy instruments, policy actions and institutional framework. The analysis demonstrates a securitization of the EU's development policy and its relations with developing countries, particularly in Africa. However, paradoxically, the securitization's extent and nature suggest that the EU can also use it as a way to avoid a more direct involvement in conflict areas.     

Covering HIV/AIDS: Towards a heuristic comparison between communitarian and utilitarian ethics

Abstract

This article considers two approaches to ethical decision-making on the issue of reporting on human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS)-related deaths in the popular media. The conflict between cultural values and the public interest is explored via the ethical approaches of communitarianism and utilitarianism. The death of a former South African presidential spokesperson, is taken as an illustration of how these approaches might lead to different ethical decisions.     

The persuasive effect of Tsotsitaal in HIV/AIDS material

ABSTRACT

According to Statistics South Africa (2002) HIV infections were the leading cause of death for females between 15 and 39 years of age for the period 1997 to 2001. The South African Department of Health (2003) estimates that 3.1 million women (15–49 years) in South Africa are HIV-infected. The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) (2002) claimed that in the 15- to 24-year age group, 12 per cent of the women and 6.1 per cent of the males are HIV-infected. The high incidence of HIV/AIDS has resulted in a number of campaigns that seek to promote safe sex. According to the results that have been published, young people are seen as a high-risk group. However, of the campaigns that seek to address the issue of HIV/AIDS, the loveLife project is the only campaign aimed exclusively at young people. loveLife makes extensive use of the printed media in their campaigns. They claim to speak in a language with which young people will identify. Very little research into the effectiveness of the language use in these campaigns has been undertaken. Saal (2003) examined the effect of teenager slang as used by loveLife among learners in the Western Cape. This research is an extension of the research conducted by Saal (2003), looking in particular at the effect of Tsotsitaal among learners in the Eersterust area. Tsotsitaal is widely used in Eersterust, Gauteng Province, and its persuasive effect in HIV/AIDS material will be examined. Two brochures (written in Standard Afrikaans and Tsotsitaal) were tested in terms of their effect on source–receiver–similarity, source attraction and credibility (source expertise and trustworthiness) as well as persuasiveness. The findings of the study suggested, somewhat surprisingly, that speakers of Standard Afrikaans are rated more favourably than Tsotsitaal speakers in terms of source–receiver–similarity and credibility. The participants also viewed the brochure in Standard Afrikaans as significantly more persuasive than the Tsotsitaal brochure.     

Windows of opportunity for conflict prevention: responding to regional conflict in West Africa1

This article charts the course of regional crisis in West Africa since 1999 and assesses the extent to which the United Nations (UN) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) succeeded in preventing an escalation of crisis in that sub‐region. It argues that although windows of opportunity existed for preventing the escalation of conflict and attention was sometimes paid to warning signs, the UN and ECOWAS had limited success largely because the regional dimensions of the conflicts were not recognized earlier. Additionally, while there has been increased collaboration between the UN and ECOWAS in response to regional crisis, these efforts are hampered by the absence of a systematized base of operations. This paper discusses the experience of the last five years and concludes that ECOWAS has not only become more responsive but has developed an evolving political framework for early action which could be greatly improved with coordinated and targeted support from the UN.     

Power-sharing and peace in Côte d'Ivoire: past examples and future prospects

Many scholars have expressed grave concerns over the increased popularity of power-sharing agreements in Africa, arguing that power-sharing is an unstable form of government that provides only short-term reprieve from violent conflict. While most African experiments with power-sharing have failed, this does not necessarily invalidate the case for employing such agreements. The critical importance of context has been cited as a key factor in explaining the success or failure of power-sharing. In other words, it is not that power-sharing is inherently flawed but rather that it should only be employed in certain contexts. This article examines the role of context in explaining different power-sharing outcomes by analysing power-sharing in Côte d'Ivoire. The country provides an excellent case study for examining the importance of context as power-sharing agreements have been adopted in a variety of contexts with diverging outcomes. The article systematically examines key peace agreements and resulting power-sharing arrangements since the outbreak of civil war in 2002 in order to evaluate which factors help to explain successes and failures of power-sharing in Côte d'Ivoire. The article concludes by considering how previous examples may help to shed light on future prospects for power-sharing in Côte d'Ivoire and elsewhere.