缅甸新政府面临的挑战与机遇

随着缅甸大选平静而顺利地完成,新政府也宣告成立。从缅甸新政府的组成和目前的国际国内形势看,缅甸新政府将面临难得的新机遇,主要表现为：民族和解使新政府的合法性得到承认;西方国家的外交压力减轻有利于新政府拓展外交空间;缅甸与周边国家关系的改善有利于新政府集中精力发展缅甸经济,改善民生;缅甸的地缘优势、资源优势使新政府在其参与的各种多边合作中有更多的发挥空间。     

缅甸大选后的外交形势及其政策趋势

2010年缅甸举行了20年来的首次大选，这是缅甸国家政治转型的一次重要契机。对于缅甸大选结果及新政府的建立，东盟邻国、周边大国和西方国家反映各异．但即使是长期与缅甸对立的西方大多数国家也对大选有了一定程度的认可。未来。缅甸执政当局仍将面临各种政治势力和国内国际局势影响下重新洗牌、西方国家继续施加压力和制裁而出现的不确定性局面。中国和缅甸长期以来建立的密切关系也将因西方国家不断对缅甸的威逼利诱经受考验。     

缅甸大选：迈出国家转型的重要一步

今年11月7日,缅甸举行了20年来的首次多党制大选。受政府支持的联邦巩固与发展党（巩发党）最终赢得联邦以及省、邦各级议会77％的选举席位,成为各级议会中的多数党。此次大选是缅甸由军人政府转向民选政府的关键一步,在缅甸政治民主化进程中意义重大。但新政府未来施政仍将面临经济困难、少数民族地方武装组织林立、反对派领袖昂山素季活动频繁、西方继续制裁等挑战。     

缅甸大选后政局评估与中缅关系前瞻

2015年11月8日,缅甸举行了5年一次的全国大选。昂山素季领导的"全国民主联盟"赢得压倒性胜利,军方支持的"联邦巩固与发展党"败选,民盟将凭借议席优势而主导联邦议会两院议长和总统人选。军方承认大选结果,愿与新政府合作。如果权力过渡期不出极端意外,民盟组建新政府顺利,其领导的政府将从2016年3月起执政5年,缅甸政治迎来大变局。但由于缅甸政治生态复杂,并面临复杂的民族、宗教矛盾,经济社会发展任务艰巨,民盟执政未必一帆风顺。中缅友好关系总体将向前发展,但也存在一些隐忧。     

保加利亚新政府的政策走向及面临问题

1997年4月19日,保加利亚提前举行议会选举,民主力量联盟获胜,并于5月21日组成了以民盟主席伊凡·科斯托夫为总理的新政府。 一、议会大选及新政府组成 (一)社会党执政失败导致议会提前大选。在1994年12月举行的议会大选中获胜的社会党在执政两年后因未能解决严重的经济危机、金融危机和社会治安等问题,于1996年底被迫辞职。1997年初,社会党打算重新组阁,但右翼的民主力量联盟坚决反对其继续执政,要求提     

缅甸政治展望

2003年8月缅甸政府总理宣布旨在走向民主的缅甸7点路线图计划.2004年5月17日,已休会8年的制宪国民大会重新复会.此次复会旨在讨论确定宪法章节的具体原则.如果一切按照军政府的蓝图发展,随后将进行全民公决宪法草案,举行自由公平的人民大会选举,召开国民大会,把缅甸建设成为一个国家领导人经全民大选选举产生,政府及其他国家核心权利机构由全民大选组成的现代化、发达的民主国家.     

对缅甸大选后局势发展的几点看法

正缅甸新政府这次顺利当选,应该说是得到了大多数民众和议会的支持。毫无疑问,"全国民主联盟"(简称"全民盟")成功了,而且这个成功是真实的成功。我们不能低估缅甸民众对昂山素季的承认和认可,连缅甸的出租车司机也认为,"缅甸联邦巩固与发展党"(简称"巩发党")是胜不了的。大选后,缅甸的政局会走向何方?我们不妨从以下几个方面来进行考量。     

缅甸:2014年回顾与2015年展望

2014年,缅甸政府的重点是准备2015年大选。缅甸大选委员会为2015年大选制定竞选规则,政府努力与各少数民族武装达成停火协议,西方国家对缅甸投资也有所增加。缅甸面临着大选前各方政治势力的博弈和缅北民族冲突等一系列问题的挑战。     

柬埔寨组阁僵局及其政策走向

柬埔寨王国于今年7月举行全国大选,首相云升(原译洪森)领导的人民党胜出。但迄今为止,柬仍未摆脱新政府的组阁僵局。尽管如此,柬未来新政府仍将保持对内突破发展困境、对外借力求发展的政策基轴。 本次大选结果反映了自1998年以来柬政坛三大政党实力消长的变化,也直接影响了新政府的组成。首先,由云升领导的执政党人民党实力稳步攀     

对2010年缅甸大选法律的初步分析

本文作者理查德·霍西为缅甸问题研究专家，前国际劳工组织（ILO）驻缅甸联络官，有多年在缅甸工作、生活的经历，熟悉缅文和该国情况。本文是作者在2010年3月31日为和平与预防危机论坛提交的论文，是西方分析家中针对缅甸大选法律进行研究的最早一批成果之一。正如作者文中所说，缅甸军政府此次颁布的大选法律只有缅文版，没有其他语种的译文版，这给外界特别是那些不懂缅文的分析人士研究缅甸大选造成了困惑，     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.     

从斯大林功过看苏联兴亡——评《苏联兴亡史论》

一　对斯大林功过的评价要与时俱进要考察苏联兴亡的历史进程、总结苏联兴亡的历史经验 ,首先就要探究从列宁到戈尔巴乔夫苏联历届党政首脑的理论、路线、体制和实践的演变问题 ,尤其是涉及对斯大林功过的评价问题。因为斯大林执政时间最长 ,而且苏联的社会主义制度主要是在斯大林执政的 3 0年间( 1 92 3～ 1 95 3年 )建成并且得到巩固的 ,随后 3 0多年苏联斯大林模式没有发生什么大变化。如果我们肯定斯大林是“功大于过”,那么就要肯定苏联的社会主义模式基本上是成功的、优秀的 ,尽管难免还有一些弊端 ,那只要经过小修小补就能更加显示优…     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

Globalization and the Reform of the International Financial and Monetary Systems

The outbreak of the global financial cdsis has called into question U.S.-style ＂financial capitalism.＂ Protectionism, currency multilateralism, decentralization of financial decision-making power and the nationalism of resources are gaining ground. The emerging economies are on the rise. The world power order is becoming multi-polar. Relations between countries are growing more diverse. The global governance model is undergoing fundamental changes. Global governance mechanisms, which are more representative and reflective of the diverse interests （such as the G20 and the UN climate change conference）, along with a reform of the international monetary system, will also help shape the future world order.     

美洲国家首脑会议与美洲自由贸易区的前景

自1994年至今共举行了4届美洲国家首脑会议,每届会议均与美国所倡议的美洲自由贸易区有密切关系。2005年11月在阿根廷举行的第四届首脑会议上,美洲国家围绕着是否重启美洲自由贸易区谈判问题产生分歧。一些拉美国家对在香港举行的WTO第六次部长级会议的成果不甚满意。美洲自由贸易区的前景不容乐观。     

Uneven and combined confusion: on the geopolitical origins of capitalism and the rise of the west

This article offers a critique of Alexander Anievas and Kerem Ni?ancio?lu’s How the West came to rule: the geopolitical origins of capitalism. We argue that while all historiography features a number of silences, shortcomings or omissions, the omissions in How the West came to rule lead to a mistaken view of the emergence of capitalism. There are two main issues to be confronted. First, we argue that Anievas and Ni?ancio?lu have an inadequate and misleading understanding of “capital” and “capitalism” that tilts them towards a theoretical stance that comes very close to arguing that everything caused capitalism while at the same time having no clear and convincing definition of “capital” or “capitalism”. Second, there are at least three omissions—particular to England/Britain within a geopolitical context—that should be discussed in any attempt to explain the development of capitalism: the financial revolution and the Bank of England; the transition to coal energy; and the capitalization of state power as it relates to war, colonialism and slavery. We conclude by calling for a connected-histories approach within the framework of capital as power.     

离岸市场的发展与人民币国际化的推进

人民币国际化自2009年正式启动以来,在跨境贸易结算等领域取得了很大进展,人民币离岸市场的建设也取得了一定成绩,但目前来看并没有充分发挥预期中的功能,这也引发了各界对人民币国际化模式的进一步讨论。原则上,由于我国资本项目尚未完全开放,离岸市场有助于克服人民币自由流动受限这一障碍。历史经验也表明,在一定条件下离岸市场能够有效地推进货币国际化。人民币国际化应当遵循贸易结算、离岸市场、资本输出、跨国企业四者并举的"中国模式",其中未来的离岸市场发展需要相应的条件和配套准备才能真正为人民币国际化提供引擎。