苏联改革的两面性:从改革走向崩溃

在毫无征兆的情况下,苏联突然解体了。苏共领导人戈尔巴乔夫的改革把苏联带入了一场典型的革命性进程之中。苏联的政治经济体制改革的起步非常谨慎,随后逐步扩大到政治层面,并升级为激进的政治诉求和改革,进而持续升温成为一场革命性的大动荡。旨在恢复社会秩序、实现社会稳定的苏联版"热月政变"由此出现。实际上,前苏联的这场改革并不像当下一些政客抑或是戈尔巴乔夫本人所讲述的那样,是一场有计划的、有组织性的,旨在实现民主化、西方式的民主社会类型和市场经济的改革。苏联的解体也并非因为灾难性的经济危机,事实上,苏联的经济早已是一潭死水。苏联之所以会走向解体,主要在于其一系列旨在解决严重的社会经济问题的改革准备既不充分,信息也不全面。历史上不乏各种经意和不经意的结果,这场改革将苏联整个社会推入了政治经济不断沉沦的漩涡,引起权贵阶层尤其是苏联加盟共和国中执政者的不安。这反过来又催生了一股压力,要求迅速纠正这些意料之外的结果。从本质上说,苏联解体是这场自上而下改革的结果,这场改革的开始是由于部分苏联精英利用了苏联上层社会对激进改革以及加盟共和国的民族主义的诉求,然而却以整个社会体系的改变而告终。     

印缅关系:从疏远到合作

冷战结束后,印度从现实利益和地缘安全战略的角度出发,大幅度调整了对缅甸的外交政策,印缅关系由疏远走向积极合作。本文从历史与现实等多个角度对背后的动因展开分析,并对其发展前景和地区影响做初步预测。     

From tragedy to comedy: Political reform in Thailand

Thailand's democracy has been profoundly influenced by mass struggle and tragic bloodshed. The political freedom now exercised by Thai citizens ia a direct result of continuous mass struggle against dictatorship, the high points of which were the 14th October 1973 and the May 1992 popular uprisings. Yet, at the same time, this freedom has also had its limits defined by the brutal crushing of Thailand's socialist movement on the 6th October 1976. This has meant that the present day parliamentary system is devoid of any element of class politics. It is this, more than anything else, which is responsible for the corruption and vote-buying in the electoral system. Recent attempts at political reform, culminating in the drafting of the 1997 Constitution, results from the work of a coalition between two separate and conflicting class factions in Thai society. On the one hand, “the People's Organisations” (N.G.O.s, campaigns for democracy, peasant and labour groups) demanded more rights and participation in decision-making. On the other hand, “the modernist liberal wing of the ruling elite” wished to see more efficient and stable government. The contradictions between these two political currents can be seen throughout the reform process and in Thai politics today. Attempts to cleanse Thai politics using a reformed Constitution, new election laws and newly established “independent bodies,” such as the Election Commission and Constitutional Court, are unlikely to succeed, since they fail to address the real basis of money politics in Thailand and rely on a narrow structuralist approach. A more realistic route to political reform would rely on the mobilisation of social groups on a class basis. Only when such groups organise to push for more social equality and justice inside and outside the confines of the present structures can there be true progress.     

The German Model Revisited: From Schmidt to Schroder

This article examines the main changes in the German model from the government of the previous Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt to that of Gerhard Schroder. It stresses the tensions and conflicts between its two faces - ordo-liberalism and 'managed' capitalism - and its potential to shift its centre of gravity without sacrificing its underlying nature. The key element of accommodation rests on a monetarist co-ordination of collective bargaining, an element that has been put in question by EMU. The Schroder government epitomizes an approach of modernisation by stealth that is well adapted to the contours of the German model. The conclusion points to the attempts to give a technocratic basis of legitimacy to the German model (most recently by the methodology of benchmarking) and seeks to offer a preliminary sketch of a theory of anchoring to explain how well consolidated is the German model. In addition to identifying slipping and weakening anchors, the conclusion emphasises the importance of two key anchors: the consistency of the German model with corporate strategy and with a chancellorship leadership adapted to the consensus principle which remains important in the operation of the political system. In the process the article offers reflections on the leadership role and style of Chancellor Schroder.     

Ireland: From modest beginnings to a big player

From modest beginnings as an agrarian country, Ireland now has one of the highest growth rates in the world as a result of its sound economic policies, innovation, and the deliberate internatioalisation of its economy.     

From Planning to Market: A Framework for Cuba

The measures introduced by Raúl Castro since 2008 and the most recent US–Cuba policy change indicate that Cuba is shifting from a planned and highly centralised state socialist economic model toward one in which economic actors and markets become main drivers of the economy. The examples of Asian and Central and Eastern European socialist countries suggest four distinguished pathways for such transition. The question is which one may provide a feasible model for Cuba. Based on the country's economic and population structure, this study places the Cuban case within the framework of socialist economic transitions and explores some policy implications.