中俄边境贸易的过去、现在与未来

中国与俄罗斯的边境贸易源于1689年的《中俄尼布楚条约》,至今已有300多年的历史。虽然两国的边境贸易经历了沙皇俄国、苏联、俄罗斯联邦等不同的历史时期,但是友好往来、互通有无的良好传统一直没有中断。在当前中俄经贸合作全面展开的新态势下,中俄边境贸易仍具有巨大的发展潜力,随着中俄两国国家关系的持续良好发展,中俄边境贸易又迎来了新的历史机遇。     

世界与中国、中国与世界:过去30年,未来30年

2008北京奥运的完美落幕进一步突出了中国改革开放以来的发展成就,标志着中国的国力、国势、国运进入新的上升轨道,中国与世界的关系再度成为国际热点话题。中国的发展、崛起将引起国际格局、国际体系发生什么样的变化?在变化中的世界,尤其是在中国发展本身就构成国际变局重要组成部分、国际上"中国威胁论"及"中国责任论"等此起彼伏的情况下,中国又面临着什么样的新任务、需要确立怎样的国家大战略、做出何种新的战略选择?要不要居安思危,继续坚持韬光养晦?对这些问题,不仅精英层在严肃思考,普通民众也极为关切。鉴此,《现代国际关系》杂志社2008年8月31日以"‘奥运后时代’中国与世界的关系"为题举办研讨会,邀请京津两地20多位相关领域专家、学者就上述问题展开深入讨论。现将会议主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

中美关系的战略基础:过去、现在与未来

以共同威胁或以共同利益为战略基础是发展中美关系的两条主要道路.冷战期间,以反对苏联威胁为主的中美关系战略基础随着冷战的结束而消失.反恐期间,以对付恐怖主义为主的中美关系战略基础具有相对的短暂性和脆弱性.美国反恐战争结束后,中美两国应考虑从共同利益中确定发展未来中美关系的建设性战略基础.经济互赖当是中美关系新的战略基础的首选.     

越南与俄罗斯经贸合作发展的历程、现状与趋势

1991年底,苏联解体,越南与俄罗斯的关系进入新的历史时期。20年来,两国经贸合作取得了令人瞩目的成效,双边贸易迅猛增长,合作领域不断拓宽,合作层次不断提升。2001年,越南与俄罗斯宣布建立战略合作伙伴关系,随着两国成功加入世界贸易组织,在WTO框架体系下,未来双边经贸合作具有广阔的发展前景。     

越南与美国经贸合作发展的历程、现状与前景

自1986年革新开放以来,越南大力发展外向型经济战略,积极融入世界经济体系。1995年越南与美国正式建立外交关系,双方由过去的军事对抗转向全面经贸合作,两国关系翻开了新的历史篇章。近年来,越美双边经贸合作取得了令人瞩目的成效,双边贸易实现了快速增长,合作领域逐渐拓宽,合作层次不断提升。目前,越美双边关系已成为越南对外关系的核心。在WTO框架下,越南与美国的经贸合作关系将会得到进一步发展。     

越南与欧盟经贸合作的历程、现状与前景

1990年11月28日,越南与欧盟正式建交,20年来双边经贸关系发展迅速。1995年双方签署《越南一欧盟合作框架协议》,2012年双方签署《越南-欧盟全面友好合作协议》,为双边经贸发展搭建全新合作框架。越南-欧盟自由贸易区建成将进一步提升双方贸易投资合作水平。21世纪,越南与欧盟的经贸关系具有广阔的发展前景。     

The Internal Israeli Conflict: The Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements

On October 14 and 15, 2004, just days before the Israeli government submitted to the Knesset a draft legislation to authorize the evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza Strip and some settlements on the West Bank, a two‐day conference titled “Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements: The Internal Israeli Conflict” was held at Harvard Law School. The conference was sponsored by the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, the Saltman Center for Conflict Resolution of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and the United States Institute of Peace. This interdisciplinary conference's six panels, whose proceedings are summarized in the series of articles that follow, explored the religious, ideological, psychological, political, legal, and international dimensions of the conflict. Presenters included former and current Israeli and American government officials, experts on resettlement policies and compensation mechanisms, and scholars from a variety of disciplines. While presentation topics covered a range of issues relating to the settlements, three broad themes arose from the conference. First, participants agreed that it is important, if not fundamental, to understand the perspectives of the national religious settlers who are the driving force behind the settlement movement. Exploring the settlers’ diverse interests, fears, and identities is necessary in order to see why relocation is so threatening to them. The Israeli government can lessen opposition to withdrawal by showing the settlers empathy and reassurance, but only if government officials first achieve a true understanding of the settlers’ concerns. Participants also argued that a reframing of the relocation in ideological terms could be another critical component of a solution to this problem. It may be necessary for the leaders of the settlement movement to develop a new narrative or modify the existing one in order to legitimize their relocation. Part of this narrative will involve the concept of “a greater good”— the government must reassure the settlers that their sacrifice is for a higher cause. Several participants noted that Israel needs to show the settlers “tough love.” When the relocations begin, many expect that there will be violence and that disturbing images will be broadcast throughout Israel and around the world. Internal disruption could put the government led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Likud party coalition in jeopardy. The government must not waver in the face of this crisis, conference participants argued. In fact, the threat of violent and disruptive resistance by settlers and their allies can be part of the solution, not just the problem. The government and relocation supporters can use this extremism to justify decisive measures and to redefine the problem for the broader population to convince them that the stability of the country is at stake. Another major conclusion of conference participants was that, while the Israeli settlement issue has unique features, there is much to be learned from comparative analysis. Other countries have dealt with settlement situations, and their experiences offer invaluable lessons. In particular, participants contrasted Israel's settlements in Gaza and the West Bank with French settlements in Algeria and English settlements in Ireland. Some pointed to the French withdrawal from Algeria, which was politically painful but ultimately successful, as an example of “tough love” that Israel should follow. Finally, the involvement of third parties to help solve this conflict is indispensable. Participants noted that while much of Israel feels alienated from the European Union and the United Nations, the Israeli government is highly sensitive to the concerns of the United States, as evidenced by Sharon's decision to show the Gaza withdrawal plan to the U.S. government before he had even raised it with his cabinet and the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. International participation could help legitimize withdrawal and reduce Israeli responsibility for Gaza's future. Third parties can apply political pressure to encourage an accountable and responsible Palestinian leadership. They may also be called upon to provide some sort of financial aid. The participants acknowledged the complexity of the settlement problem and recognized that easy solutions do not exist. Yet, if the Israeli government works toward understanding the settlers’ perspectives, learns from comparative analysis, and involves third parties appropriately, the likelihood of a successful outcome increases greatly.     

越战后美国对印支难民的安置与其地区分布分析

在印支3国(越南、柬埔寨、老挝)1975年后出现的难民潮中,有大批人移居美国。美国出于现实利益需要和人道主义原则而接纳了他们。最初的难民在经过收容中心后,被安置到全国不同的居留地。他们跟着又与后来的难民分别通过家庭团聚、政府的"疏散政策"以及重择高福利居留地等方式,先后进行"二度移民",从而形成了印支难民在美国地区分布的基本格局。这一分布是高度不平衡的,高集中性的。     

巴基斯坦：远景与现实，过去与未来

巴基斯坦作为一个独立的国家,它不仅仅代表着一个国家和政府,而且还是一种对当代政治中占统治地位的自由化与世俗化模式发起的挑战,它本身就构成了一种变革政治地图的努力。文章从巴基斯坦的现实分析了这个国家的过去与未来。     

Benefits for Future Sino-US Relations from Lessons of Past 50 Years

The roller coaster Sino-US relations over the past 50 years have dipped to a newlow once again this year, with clamor for strategic competition drowning outadvocacy of strategic cooperation on the other shore of the Pacific Ocean. Why bi-lateral ties have thus far failed to shatter this erratic puzzling bind ? A review of thepast 50 years will perhaps offer us much food for thought.     

The Past,Present, and Future of Mediation as Seen through the Eyes of Some of Its Founders

This article is drawn from interviews with thirty‐one of mediation's “founders,” those pioneers who began mediating in the 1970s and 1980s, when the field was young. They describe what first attracted them to mediation and why they have remained active in the field. Some told us that they have found it to be both intellectually challenging and interpersonally satisfying to assist disputing parties in their search for a mutually acceptable resolution they could not find on their own. Others see mediation's collaborative approach to decision making as a means of bringing about social and political change that might be otherwise unattainable. The mediators also described the changes they have observed since they entered the field: mediation's dramatic growth, institutionalization in the judicial system, and market domination by lawyers and retired judges. Among the concerns they expressed were the prevalence of a mediation model that focuses primarily on the legal strengths and weaknesses of each party's position, and the dollar amount that should resolve the dispute, with little interest in creative outcomes. Other concerns are a lack of quality control of mediators and trainers, and unproductive debate about whether the “correct” approach to mediation is evaluative, facilitative, or transformative. The mediators who work on public policy matters, including environmental disputes, were the most positive about the opportunity for creativity in their work, considerably more so than those mediators whose practice is primarily business/commercial. The mediators' views of the future of mediation are remarkably similar — their general sense is that the type of mediation that takes place in the shadow of the courts is likely to increase and to become even more routinized than it is at present. Several respondents told us that they also expect to see substantial growth in the use of mediation to resolve public policy issues. Many of these mediators predicted that this type of mediation is likely to be carried out by organizational insiders, rather than outside interveners. As one mediator said, “Maybe there's a new set of mediation roles for people within traditional institutions, not just for free‐standing neutrals.”     

海湾妇女：历史、现状与未来

历史上海湾妇女在社会、政治、经济等方面地位低下。自20世纪50年代以来，由于政府倡导及社会经济发展等原因，海湾妇女的社会地位有了很大提高，经济独立性增强，也取得了一定的政治权利。虽然受伊斯兰传统影响，海湾妇女状况仍存在诸多问题，如妇女就业仍受限制，享有的经济、政治权利仍不容乐观，但展望未来，相信跨入新世纪的海湾妇女必将展示出新的风采。     

拉丁美洲经济形势

20 0 0年拉丁美洲经济基本步出衰退的阴影 ,各种宏观经济指数明显提高 ,ＧＤＰ平均增长率达到 4 % ,其中墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区达 4 .5% ,南美洲为 3.3%。据国际经济与金融组织预计 ,2 0 0 1年拉美经济有望继续稳步增长。一随着全球经济状况的整体改善 ,2 0 0 0年拉美地区经济形势也大为改善 ,呈现出如下特点 :(一 )经济止跌回升。因受巴西金融动荡的影响 ,拉美经济 1 999年普遍出现衰退 ,经济增长率仅为 0 .3%。 2 0 0 0年拉美经济形势在全球经济状况改善的带动下出现好转 ,大多数国家经济恢复增长势头 ,预计整个拉美地区经济增长率平…     

Regionalism in Asia: Past and Future

In order to predict the future of East Asia in the wake of the 1997-98 financial crisis, Kenneth B. Pyle looks to the region's past for lessons. He assesses East Asia's 'old new orders' and deduces six major lessons from their history that can be applied to the current post-Cold-War interregnum. The region is gaining an unprecedented power to shape its own system and to influence the international order, but its current institutions are built on extremely fragile foundations. The risk is that we are in an age of rising nationalism within the region and the emergence of strategic rivalries, arms races, and competition for limited resources. Finally, in looking at Japan, Pyle predicts that the currently awkward US-Japan alliance will determine the region's stability, despite the fact that Japan will most likely continue to shy away from a proactive role in the area. These lessons lead to the argument that events will drive the region's international relations in the future and that the region must seize this opportunity to create new stabilising institutions.     

苏格兰独立倾向的历史与现状

众所周知，英国的全称是大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国，其中大不列颠包括英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士。作为联合王国的一个重要成员，苏格兰在历史上也曾是一个独立的国家，且与其近邻英格兰冲突不断，导致了一系列血腥战争。18世纪初，苏、英双方都意识到紧密的政治、经济联合会给彼此带来更多的益处，     

Look back into the Past,and Talk about the Future

The CAFIU secretariat organized the alumni seminar on her 30~(th) anniversaryThe CAFIU secretariat organized the alumni seminar on her 30th anniversary on the morning of Sept. 27th, 2011. Deputy Secretary-General Mr. Ni Jian chaired the seminar. 20-odd former Secretaries-General, Deputy Secretaries-General and CAFIU Executive Council members attended