政治科学预测方法研究——以选举预测为例

预测是人类的基本认知活动。作为社会科学预测性研究的重要领域,选举预测是促进政治学理论和方法创新的动力。选举预测不仅限于民调,科学的选举预测可以划分为四类范式:意见聚合范式;模型范式;混合范式;大数据范式。每类范式包含若干种预测方法,不同预测方法在准确性、超前性、解释力、可重复性、中立性和预测成本等评判标准上各具优势,预测方法的选择是基于预测目标和应用场景的综合权衡。目前,选举预测领域呈现多元化、交叉互补、跨学科的发展趋势;其未来发展方向是“理论驱动”与“数据驱动”相结合、微观预测变量与宏观预测变量相结合、预测与解释相结合,以政治科学为基础,通过跨学科合作和前沿技术手段推进预测范式的创新,并在预测实践中不断更新升级。预测性研究与解释性研究可以构成“双螺旋”的共生互补关系,共同致力于增进人类对复杂政治活动的理解和研判,提升政治学研究的科学水平和政策应用价值。     

The British general election: Synthetic forecasts

Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself.     

Choosing appropriate techniques for socio-political forecasting

After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.     

Budgetary constraints and municipal revenue forecasting

Conclusion The objective of this research has been to determine whether key budget participants see forecasting as making significant contributions to the budgetary process. The issue is important for at least two reasons. Budgetary tools will be used to the degree budget players perceive them as providing net budgettary benefits. Moreover, the continuing trend toward technological sophistication gives governments opportunities, red herrings or not, to incorporate the technology into the budget process. The issue is also very timely; with the demise of packaged budget reforms but not the values of budget reforms, there may be new opportunities for improving budgeting on a less grandiose, more piecemeal basis, such as using forecasts to analyze budgetary options. The findings here provide some insight into two questions concerning governmental forecasting. First, why do governments use complex methods? In support of previous research, since cities most dependent on intergovernmental aid tend to use complex forecasting, such methods may indeed be seen as a way to help cope with fiscal stress. Also, reflecting the ambiguity of current research, since cities tend to use relatively simple techniques regardless of the revenue source being forecasted, the source is at best a partial determinant of complexity. The most important predictor of complexity, however, was budget format; cities that emphasize reform methods, especially planning, tend to use the most complex forecast methods. The forecasting process was not as important as expected.Second, so what? Does forecasting influence budgetary choices? The evidence from the second part of the study suggest that it can, but within definable limits. Budget directors are more likely than councils to value outyear estimates, but both actors are much less likely to value long-term estimates. The survey results also indicate that revenue forecasts are not as useful for making political decisions as for making management decisions: the forecast is usually used as an internal document, is only sometimes intended to affect council decisions, and is not usually included in the budget. In short, the forecast may be most useful for making managerial decisions since that is what most cities want out of it. It also tends to be more useful if the budget format is less traditional. Finally, the findings indicate that forecasting may be more useful to management to the degree the council finds it politically useful. This is extremely important since it suggests that as powerful as technology may be, budgetary tools that do not meet political needs will be managerially confined.Clearly, more research is needed in this area. Does forecasting actually shape long-range plans? In the long run, will the forecasting effort change the ways cities budget? Can the availability of forecasting information strengthen one actor relative to another? These are important questions that need answering to clarify the impact of forecasting and other technologies on the budget process.     

Multi-Year Forecasting and Municipal Budgeting

The "black hole" of budget theory still is, after 50 years, budget preparation—much effort goes in but little seems to come out. This article examines municipal forecasting as a means of reforming this first stage of the budgetary process. Drawing on evidence from a cross-sectional study, we find that forecasting is likely to be within the cognitive limits of most municipal budget directors Moreover, budgetary forecasting can be structured to reflect previous and current political concerns.     

Manpower planning and development in an organization

Manpower planning has in the past relied too much on the forecasting of manpower requirements in an organization or a society. It should be more concerned with gaining a better understanding of people, and how to develop and match their skills to what organizations or societies require. Employees should be involved in the formulation of manpower policy objectives. Manpower planning involves a ‘stocktaking’ of the workforce and its skills; forecasting the future demand and supply of skills; and diagnostic approach so that adjustments can be made to meet organizational and/or country objectives. The essence of the diagnostic approach is in the understanding of the reasons for any imbalance between the supply of and demand for manpower.     

The endogenous public choice theorist

Public choice theory has effectively explored defects in collective action and political processes. However, little attention has been given to the fact that any recommendations as to how to improve the situation can only be realized on the basis of precisely those defective institutions. What turns up here can be identified as a problem of self-reference. Normative contributions by Buchanan and Hayek may serve as an example. In order to clear up the seemingly paradoxical situation, “endogenization” of the public choice theorist within an extended theory is suggested. A straight-forward extension is briefly outlined.     

Forecasting and the systems approach: A critical survey

Long-range forecasting for social systems deals with complex feedback interactions between all sectors and elements of such systems, and thus inherently implies facing the challenge of the systems approach. The latter may be characterized as an attempt to understand the self-organizing behavior of social systems and to grasp its potential dynamic implications. A survey of current approaches to forecasting attempts to discuss the state of the art and potentials for further development in this light. Many modelling approaches—in particular econometrics—are inherently restricted to mechanistic modes of behavior. Formalized man-technique interaction—for which innovative approaches have become known—may aid forecasting for adaptive modes of system behavior; computer simulation of structural models has considerable potential in this area. Finally, forecasting techniques may be applied so as to stimulate human inventive thinking. The systems approach provides the proper perspective for the meaningful use of formalized approaches to forecasting.This paper is based on a contribution to the conference on Long Term Planning and Forecasting sponsored by the International Economic Association in Moscow, December 11–16, 1972. A related paper, outlining the theoretical frame of reference, will be published under the title Forecasting and Systems Approach: A Frame of Reference inManagement Science in 1973.     

Adding immigrants to microsimulation models

Forecasts of the financial status of Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs and forecasts of the effects of various OASDI policy options on Americans would be improved if information about the earnings and labor force behavior of various population subgroups were included in projection models. Focusing on the projection of immigrant earnings, this article proffers a conceptual basis for incorporating immigration into microsimulation models. Key results from research on immigrant earnings, as described in the first article in this trilogy--"Research on Immigrant Earnings"--are linked to methods for forecasting individual earnings in microsimulation models. The research on immigrant earnings also inspires new methods for forecasting earnings in microsimulation models as well as the projection of immigrant emigration. Forecasting immigrant earnings and emigration is discussed in the context of a "closed system"--that is, forecasts are only made for a given population, which is represented in the base sample of the microsimulation model. The third article in our trilogy--"Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models"--explores how to project immigrant earnings in the context of an "open system," which includes future immigrants.     

“It Was My Understanding That There Would Be No Math”: Using Thematic Cases to Teach Undergraduate Research Methods

Undergraduates frequently approach research methods classes with trepidation and skepticism, owing in part to math-phobia and confusion over how methodology is relevant to their interests. These self-defeating barriers to learning undermine the efficacy of methods classes. This essay discusses a strategy for overcoming these barriers—use of a case study as a thematic framework for the class. In theory, the case study engages students and renders the material less abstract. A research methods class recently taught by the author was organized around political assassinations, with an initial framing focus the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. In an end of semester Qualtrics survey, students reported that they liked this approach and believe that it kept them interested in the material.

“[S]tats are dry. The Kennedys are not dry.” ～A student     

Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

论数学方法在经济学中的运用

本文主要讨论了涉及数学方法在经济学中运用的两个问题。论文认为:首先,经济学的性质和经济研究所设定的前提决定了数学方法的适用范围,而经济理论前提假设的正确性决定了数学模型的正确性。其次,在马克思主义的经济学研究中采用适当的数学分析工具不仅可以清晰地阐明理论的核心含义,而且有助于更清晰地找到马克思主义与其他理论的本质差异在什么地方。为了正确地把握经济研究对象的性质和发展趋势,必须把数理研究方法和历史的方法有机地结合起来。     

The conscience of a fugitive: sheldon wolin and the prospects for radical democracy

Amidst increasing and seemingly intransigent inequalities, unresponsive institutions, and illegible patterns of social change, political theorists are increasingly faced with questions about the viability of democracy in the contemporary age. One of the most prominent voices within this conversation has been that of Sheldon Wolin. Wolin has famously argued that democracy is a ‘fugitive’ experience with an inherently temporary character. Critics have pounced on this concept, rejecting it as an admission of defeat or despair that is at odds with the formation of democratic counter-power. In this article, I push back against this view of fugitive democracy. I do so by contextualizing the idea within Wolin’s broader democratic theory, and especially his idea of the ‘multiple civic self’, in order to give a more coherent form to a conception of citizenship often concealed by the attention given to the supposedly momentary nature of democracy. This all too common misreading of fugitive democracy has significant stakes, because it shapes not only how we approach Wolin’s impact as a political theorist, but also how we approach practices of democratic citizenship and how we think about political theory and political science’s relationship to those practices.     

对公安专科学校治安专业教学改革的思考

公安专科院校治安专业教学改革的目标是通过治安专业的教学改革，强化学生应用能力和实践技能的培养。治安专业专科教育具有不同于一般职业教育的显著特色，就是其综合性和实践性。治安专业教学在课程设主、教材、教法、教师队伍等方面存在一些问题，因此要从优化课程设置、重构治安教材、更新教学方法、提高教师队伍素质等方面进行教学改革。     

Citizen forecasting: Can UK voters see the future?

The leading approaches to election forecasting have been statistical models, prediction markets, or vote intention polls. This paper explores a different, little used approach - citizen forecasting - a method never yet tried for the case of the United Kingdom. Citizen forecasting simply asks voters in a scientific pre-election survey who they think will win. This aggregated (averaged) result is then assessed for its accuracy in forecasting the overall election outcome. This assessment is carried out on UK general elections from 1951 to 2005, and then applied to 2010. We find, among other things, that generally speaking the majority of the electorate can foretell the winner in advance.     

Optimally Allocating Federal Money to Cities

The purpose of this article is to discuss some basic methods for optimally allocating federal money to cities. Optimally allocating in this context means using the quantitative methods of operations research, management science, and related fields in order to allocate federal money to cities in such a way as to (1) maximize benefits subject to a given budget, (2) minimize costs subject to a minimum satisfaction level, or (3) maximize benefits minus costs. The basic methods include (1) allocating by marginal rates of return, which partly relies or statistical regression analysis; and (2) allocating by part/whole percentages, which partly relies on ideas associated with multiattribute utility theory. The basic methods will be illustrated with the example of allocating anticrime dollars to cities, although one could easily reason by analogy to allocation in any subject matter area.     

Village viability assessment procedures in Tanzania: Decision-making with curtailed information requirements

This article explains the methods developed for gathering necessary data to make assessments of village viability in Tanzania during the period 1975-78. The need for methods arose out of the consolidation into villages of dispersed rural settlements and the problem encountered by an unknown number of new villages of deficiencies in the available and accessible physical environment. What was required was a means of identifying those villages where priority should be given to population resettlement and the identification of new village sites. The initial attempt at establishing a standard village viability assessment procedure involved devising a procedure which assumed the need for a high level of environmental data. This presupposed the use of staff with considerable expertise, and, given the scale of the problem, this expertise was not available. A revised procedure was therefore developed which was based on more realistic assumptions about what was available. This involved making fresh estimates about the level of expertise, the amount of assessment time available and the degree of data accuracy required. On the basis of field testing a revised approach was developed. The main features of this approach are outlined, and the merits of the approach discussed.     

Austerity Regimes at the Local Level: Examining Fiscal Effects of Austerity Commissioners Using a Time-Series Synthetic Control Method

Abstract

From a democratic perspective, the replacement of government or parliament by a public manager to enforce budget discipline marks a serious intervention. Transferred to the local level, the replacement of the mayor and the council in three German municipalities by a state official (a so-called state commissioner) in recent years has raised questions about the legitimacy and adequacy of such a strong interventionist instrument. One crucial answer to be given to this legitimacy issue concerns effectiveness, in other words whether the instrument can fulfill its designated task by improving the local fiscal situation since the fiscal success of the commissioner is a basic prerequisite for legitimacy. By using a time-series approach of the synthetic control method (SCM) and constructing a synthetic comparison case to the town of Altena, an answer regarding the commissioner’s potential to reduce the short-term debt can be given. The commissioner was successful in limiting the debt increase and seems to have reversed the debt trend. This finding supports the effectiveness of rather hierarchical instruments for ensuring fiscal discipline at the local level and thereby adds to broadening the international public management literature on municipal takeovers.     

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.     

Extending the rational choice model from the economy to society

That the extension of the rational choice model beyond the economy to all society can finally lead to integration of social theory is often claimed by the model’s advocates. The underlying assumption is that this model is valid for both the economy and society, in the form of an economic approach to, or a utilitarian paradigm of, all social behaviour. The meta-theoretical presupposition or injunction that agents are (should be) profit-seekers or utility-optimizers is therewith given the mission to integrate and ‘save’ contemporary social science. However, such extensions of the rational choice model from the economy to society neglect the fact that this presupposition has been partly mitigated and compromised within economics itself. If so, then suspicion is strong that the rational choice model would be even less appropriate for the other social sciences and thus fall short of achieving its self-designated role of integration of social theory. The conclusion of an interdisciplinary analysis drawing both from economics and sociology is that rational choice is far from being an integrative model of the economy and society.