Strategies,capabilities, and demands: Explaining outcomes in violent intrastate nationalist conflicts

The study of nationalist and ethnic conflict has undergone considerable growth since the end of the Cold War. Much of the effort has been focused on ascertaining the nature and origins of such conflicts, and less on their process and termination. Those studies that do focus on conflict termination have generally done so using case‐study or idiosyncratic methods. Hence, we do not yet have much large‐N or statistical evidence that might suggest broad trends in how such conflicts end, or even much experience in measuring the relevant concepts in a manner conducive to such methods. This paper will address these questions by introducing a theoretical framework that seeks to explain the outcomes of violent intrastate nationalist conflicts. It will discuss measurement issues for relevant independent variables, and present data for a group of 75 violent, intrastate nationalist conflicts from 1945–1996. This data will then be used to test propositions derived from the model. The aim is to provide a useful building block for the study of the process and outcome of conflicts which political scientists now recognize to be some of the most important for the coming century.     

Psychological Barriers to Resolving Intergroup Conflict: An Extensive Review and Consolidation of the Literature

This article reviews over sixty years of research on psychological barriers to intergroup conflict resolution and finds that scholars have identified eighty nominally different barriers that create or exacerbate intergroup conflict. In order to create a tractable list that would be more helpful to future scholars and practitioners, we consolidate this vast literature (e.g., by eliminating substantive and conceptual redundancies) to produce a list of twenty‐six “unique” psychological barriers. We further organize this inventory of barriers with a framework that distinguishes between “cognitive,” “affective,” and “motivated” psychological barriers. To better understand the literature ecosystem of research on psychological barriers, we employ a data visualization tool to illustrate the extent to which each of the twenty‐six unique barriers has been studied conjointly with every other barrier in the articles we reviewed. We then shift our attention to the work of scholars who have attempted, experimentally, to attenuate psychological barriers in negotiation and conflict settings, and identify five primary methods for doing so. Finally, we discuss the implications of our review for future work in this field.     

产品内国际分工与我国加工贸易的发展

产品内分工理论集中且准确体现了目前国际分工贸易的新特点,填补了以往国际贸易理论产业间视角的明显不足。本文首先综述了国内外产品内国际分工研究,并探讨了分工与加工贸易之间的关系。其次,全面系统阐述了产品内国际分工条件下我国加工贸易的内涵与特点。并针对我国加工贸易在国际产品内分工条件下的现状进行考察,找出存在的问题。在上述分析的基础上提出了国际产品内分工条件下我国发展加工贸易的应对策略。     

Islamism and the state after the Arab uprisings: Between people power and state power

This paper examines the trajectories of different Islamist trends in the light of the Arab uprisings. It proposes a distinction between statist and non-statist Islamism to help understand the multiplicity of interactions between Islamists and the state, particularly after 2011. It is outlined how statist Islamists (Islamist parties principally) can contribute to the stabilization and democratization of the state when their interactions with other social and political actors facilitate consensus building in national politics. By contrast when these interactions are conflictual, it has a detrimental impact on both the statist Islamists, and the possibility of democratic politics at the national level. Non statist-Islamists (from quietist salafi to armed jihadi) who prioritize the religious community over national politics are directly impacted by the interactions between statist Islamists and the state, and generally tend to benefit from the failure to build a consensus over democratic national politics. Far more than nationally-grounded statist Islamists, non-statist Islamists shape and are shaped by the regional dynamics on the Arab uprisings and the international and transnational relations between the different countries and conflict areas of the Middle East. The Arab uprisings and their aftermath reshaped pre-existing national and international dynamics of confrontation and collaboration between Islamists and the state, and between statist and non-statists Islamists, for better (Tunisia) and for worse (Egypt).     

Democratization in Conflict Research: How Conceptualization Affects Operationalization and Testing Outcomes

Using the debate over democratization and conflict, we demonstrate how the connection between conceptualization and operationalization can play a decisive role in testing falsifiable hypotheses. We discuss seven different operationalizations of regime change based on three different conceptualizations of democracy. Although we find high correlations between different measures of democracy, when they are used to capture regime change, the correlations drop precipitously. In multivariate estimations of the effect of regime change on a range of conflict variables, we generate widely disparate results, providing no consistent support that democratization affects conflict. We thus demonstrate that decisions about conceptualization and subsequent operationalization have decisive impact on the inference we produce. In contrast, our controls for the effect of institutionalized democracy consistently show a negative relationship between joint democracy and conflict. Finally, autocratic regime change seems to be more robustly correlated with a range of conflict behaviors than heretofore recognized in this literature.     

IR Teaching Reloaded: Using Films and Simulations in the Teaching of International Relations

This article reflects some experiences in teaching International Relations (IR) by using films to supplement the use of simulations and role play scenarios. The authors have used simulations and role play scenarios in order to teach complex issues and theories, and to engage the interest of students. By using films to supplement the use of simulations in classrooms, it is suggested that students become more active in their own learning. A number of ways in which simulations and role play can be used in teaching are established here alongside an array of films that can be shown to students to complement such teaching approaches. The use of films to teach IR theory is also listed. It is concluded that the use of simulations, role play, and films in teaching IR can aid student learning especially in terms of IR theory.     

The G7, International Terrorism and Domestic Politics: Modeling Policy Cohesion in Response to Systemic Disturbance

This work probes the variability in G7 cohesion in response to relatively new disturbances in the international system. Using a domestic politics model, we argue that G7 cohesion weakens in the face of international terrorism in the context of variable domestic consequences to common foreign policy responses to this systemic disturbance. We compare the predictions from our model with predictions stemming from neorealist and liberal/institutionalist explanations. We find that, consistent with the domestic politics explanation, G7 foreign policy cohesion declines as internal terrorism increases.     

Revisiting Representation: Communism,Women in Politics,and the Decline of Armed Conflict in East Asia

This research note evaluates one of the commonly used measurements for political gender equality: representation of women in parliaments. It demonstrates that caution is called for when interpreting results where this variable is used, because parliamentary representation implies different things in different settings. Societies with more women in parliament tend to have fewer intrastate armed conflicts. We investigate this statistical association with a particular focus on East Asia. This region has seen a shift from extremely intense warfare to low levels of battle deaths at roughly the same time as great strides have been made in the representation of women in parliaments. This research note shows, however, that this statistical association is driven by authoritarian communist regimes promoting gender equality as a part of communist ideology, and these countries’ representative chambers have little influence over politics. Using statistical tests and empirical illustrations from East Asia, the note concludes that the political representation of women is an invalid indicator of political gender equality in East Asia. There is thus a need for nuance in assessing the picture painted in earlier research. In addition, the suggestion that more women in parliament will lead to fewer armed conflicts runs the risk of being forwarded as an oversimplified solution to a complex problem, and we briefly discuss the instrumentalization of gender equality in peace and security studies.     

促进合作维护和平实现共赢--东北亚地区国际关系走势分析

东北亚是世界重要经济区之一。日本、韩国的资金、技术 ,俄罗斯的资源 ,对我国的经济建设 ,尤其对东北老工业基地振兴 ,是不可缺少的。东北亚是大国利益交汇处 ,是世界热点之一 ,但不会发生战争。要树立外交新思维 ,采取灵活的外交政策 ,维护东北亚的和平稳定 ,积极推进以中、日、韩合作为核心的东北亚经济合作 ,实现地区繁荣 ,为我国全面建设小康社会创造良好的国际环境。     

The Culture of Interest: A Proposed Addition and Revision of the Three‐Culture Model

Negotiation and conflict resolution theorists have classified world cultures according to three types for the purpose of describing and predicting some of the ways in which individuals and groups within broad, geographically based cultural groups behave in conflict and negotiation‐related situations. These three broad categories, called “cultural syndromes,” have described these cultures according to the relative value they place on these three concerns: honor, face, and dignity. Based on our examination of the literature on the cultural dimensions of negotiation and conflict management, our own practice, and an analysis of literature and practice pertaining to the place and utility of the honor, face, interest, and dignity attributes within and between cultural groups , we propose a reformulation of this typology. Our reformulation would replace the broad “dignity” category with a new category that we call “interest,” which we believe better characterizes Northern European and North American cultures. We also argue that a cultural orientation toward dignity is universal and not geographically unique and is thus shared by all three cultures. This new formulation, we believe, more accurately characterizes the global range of orientations toward negotiation and conflict resolution and would, if adopted, help scholars and practitioners better understand culturally divergent conflict orientations and behaviors as well as the ramifications of such differences for negotiation and conflict resolution practice.     

Exit, voice, and loyalty in international organizations: US involvement in the League of Nations

Recent challenges to traditional international relations theory have questioned the nature of international organizations (IOs) as agents of powerful state-members and have examined various conduits through which non-state actors can voice their concerns. Yet little work has focused on participation in IOs when a powerful state’s official position contradicts the goals of actors within it. This article examines the archival record of American involvement in the League of Nations’ economic section to explore such a circumstance. I correct the prevailing historical view of American isolationism in the interwar period and argue that participation by advanced, industrial democracies can better be understood as combinations of exit, voice, and loyalty on the part of individual components of state and civil societies.

百年间国际政治经济秩序的转型压力——资本流动、产业——金融联系与自由秩序

当前,新自由主义国际秩序遭遇来自美国国内的严重冲击。这与一百年前,古典自由主义国际秩序遭遇来自英国国内的冲击十分类似。为何在一百年间,英美两国均遭遇国内对国际秩序的严重冲击?本文指出,各国不同的产业-金融联系是一项关键前情。在解除对资本跨国流动的管制后,英美两国疏远的产业-金融联系加剧了资本跨国流动带来的问题。由于缺乏国内利益纽带约束,能够用脚投票的英美两国资本生产意愿降低;相对当地政府以及普通民众的议价能力提升。资本分得更多的经济份额。由贫富分化引发的政治问题日益凸显。理性的政治家利用国内分化的政治结构,动员国内民众,给自由国际秩序构成巨大压力。与英美不同,德国等有着紧密产业-金融联系的国家,即便面临资本全球化浪潮,国内冲击自由秩序的压力相对较小。基于其政治经济安排的特点,中国能为维护国际秩序做出积极贡献。     

Between policy and reality: multiculturalism, the second generation, and the third space in Britain

Despite the significant level of cultural diversity that exists in contemporary Europe as a consequence of immigration and diaspora, state policies on multiculturalism in several countries have not kept pace with the complex and dynamic processes created by these pluralising social forces and realities. This has given rise to exclusionary contexts that have led to feelings of alienation by immigrant communities. In Britain, the violent street confrontations in Bradford in 2001 and the London bombings of 2005 both epitomised, as well as were outcomes of, the British nation state’s failure to foster dialogue and a sense of inclusion among these communities. Foregrounding the extent of the grievances and frustrations prevalent in British society, these social disturbances have also contributed to renewed debates on issues of national identity, belonging, and multiculturalism. More importantly, these clashes, involving mostly the second-generation British Asian Muslim community, have brought to the fore the dissonance between assumptions of belonging underlying “state multiculturalism”, which moves to fix and stabilise identities, and those that inform the complex processes of identification and constructions of the “third space” of belonging by racialised minority communities. Focusing on Britain, this paper’s central hypothesis is that official multiculturalism has failed to take into account the fluid and heterogeneous frames in and through which second-generation British Asians ground their cultural and political identities and demands. As many of the nation states in Europe are today, like Britain, multiethnic in composition with expanding Asian communities, how successfully or not Britain modifies its integration policies with respect to the presence of minorities of immigrant origin has enormous implications not only for Europe but also for Asia and Asia–Europe relations.     

Rashomon in Jerusalem: Mapping the Israeli Negotiators' Positions on the Israeli–Palestinian Peace Process, 1993–2001

To understand the complexities and dilemmas of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict this paper maps the divergent Israeli positions along the route of the "Oslo" peace process of 1993–2001, including the negotiations at Camp David (July 2000), and Taba (January 2001). This paper is based upon a qualitative content analysis of 20 in-depth interviews conducted in 2002 and 2003 at the Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem with a broad range of Israeli negotiators, including senior politicians, foreign ministry officials, senior military officers, former members of the security services, and political aides. This paper tackles the question of how Israelis who were directly involved in the peace process now evaluate it, offering a portrait of how sharply at odds were the various perceptions of what happened and who was responsible for the ultimate failure.     

Managing conflict in north-west Kenya: the siege of Loregon and its aftermath

Conflict management in the context of ethnic boundaries and a history of inter-ethnic violence remains a challenge in a range of socio-economic contexts. Conflict management in remote rural areas within developing states where state presence and capacity is relatively weak amidst a background of prolonged and ongoing inter-ethnic violence is particularly challenging. This article examines a case of successful bottom-up efforts to manage conflict at the micro level in northern Kenya. Focusing on the so-called siege of Loregon and its aftermath, this case study describes dynamics on one part of the ‘border’ between Turkana and Pokot ethnic groups, examining the causes and consequences of this violent episode, with a particular focus on recent successes at the local level in managing conflict and as a consequence in reducing the likelihood of future violence in a particular locality, despite ongoing violence in other parts of the interface between Turkana-Pokot ethnic groups.     

International Relations in the Eighteenth Century: Britain and Poland Compared

An analysis of the ways in which different composite monarchies conducted international relations in the eighteenth century reveals the interplay of structure and contingency in shaping change and the discussion of change. Hanover-Britain is compared with Saxony-Poland. Considering Britain as an example of a polity created and shaped by a dynastic personal union redresses teleological tendencies in the treatment of international relations and offers an important perspective.     

Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post–Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.     

Health Pluralism: A More Appropriate Alternative to Western Models of Therapy in the Context of the Civil Conflict and Natural Disaster in Sri Lanka?

This paper considers some dilemmas relating to developing effectiveassistance with and to people who have lived through extremeevents in a civil war and ‘post-conflict’ contextwithin Sri Lanka. The tsunami which devastated many coastalareas of Sri Lanka in December 2004 and left many people withno homes or livelihood has further affected the country. A majorissue is how far the concepts and methods of western psychologyand psychiatry are appropriate to radically different culturesand contexts: in particular, how post-conflict and post-disasterpsychosocial rehabilitation may depend in complex ways on localspecifics and interact or not with biomedical notions of PTSDdiagnosis and individual therapy. The relationship between aculture and its healing rituals is a complex one. Cultural,socio-political, existential and personal meanings, expressionsand responses to civil war or traumatic events and their aftermathare likely to be mediated by each individual and the contextin which they occur. This paper details our findings and offerssome suggestions for future practice.     

Trading Refugees for Land and Symbols: The Palestinian Negotiation Strategy in the Oslo Process

This article analyses the negotiation strategy of the PalestineLiberation Organization regarding the refugee issue in the failedIsraeli–Palestinian peace process from 1993 to 2001. Itis argued that the PLO was on the brink of conceding the ‘rightof return’ for the sake of territorial concessions fromIsrael. The author discusses the implications of this strategyfor the domestic legitimacy of the Palestinian leadership, asgiving up the right of return would violate a core tenet inPalestinian national mythology. The PLO negotiators tried tosolve that dilemma by, first, separating the principle of returnfrom its implementation—making it possible for the PLOto remain committed to the principle, while offering compromiseson physical return—and, second, by demanding symbolicgestures from Israel, including acknowledgment of Israel's historicresponsibility for the refugee problem. It is argued that Israel'srefusal to offer a minimum of face-saving gestures preventedthe PLO from formalizing its compromise proposal.     

冲突与兼容:荷印吧城华人遗产继承的法律适用问题——以巴达维亚华人公馆《公案簿》档案为例

在19世纪的吧城华人社会里,华人的遗产继承涉及诸多法律适用问题。本文拟就已整理出版的《公案簿》档案中一些较为典型华人遗产继承案例进行考察和分析,从中探讨荷印法律与中国法律在这一时期吧城华人遗产继承上的相互冲突和相互认可,以及在不同情况和条件下吧城华人遗产继承纠纷的法律条规适用问题,以期进一步了解荷印吧城华人在保持中国传统的同时又逐步融入当地社会生活的进程。