Choosing a runoff election threshold

This paper investigates when a runoff election is desirable and when a plurality result is good enough. A runoff election increases the likelihood that the Condorcet winner will be elected but also entails additional costs. The metric for determining whether a runoff election is desirable will be the probability that the winner of the plurality election would win an ensuing runoff. Statistical models of voter behavior are developed that estimate this probability, which are verified with runoff-election data from United States elections. The models allow governments to make more informed choices in creating rules to decide when to hold runoff elections.     

Choosing mates—the American way

He has published numerous works on family sociology and contemporary Chinese social organization. He is currently involved in a comparative study of mate choice and marital relations in China and the United States. His latest book is Dating, Mating, and Marriage.     

Choosing appropriate techniques for socio-political forecasting

After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.     

Choosing a media outlet when seeking public approval

This paper considers the media outlet choice of a politician who seeks public approval for a political agenda in a broadcast interview. The available media outlets differ in their “toughness” towards the politician. An interview with a tougher media outlet is more informative, but is also more likely to yield a negative outcome. The choice of the media outlet determines the accuracy of the information that flows to the public and the volume of citizens who consume that information. The analysis shows that (1) politicians who enjoy sufficient popularity are likely to avoid tough media outlets, (2) when seeking approval for controversial agendas, politicians are more likely to appear in tougher outlets.     

Choosing among fuels and technologies for cleaning up the air

One of the central elements in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments is the regulation of emissions from motor vehicles. This legislation will have a dramatic impact on the type of cars people drive over the coming decades. Given the high cost of achieving further reductions from automobiles, there has been increasing interest in exploring new technologies and alternative fuels that improve environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated framework for assessing the cost effectiveness of control options that involve a combination of vehicle changes and fuel changes. This study demonstrates the importance of doing an integrated analysis in selecting an appropriate combination of technologies and fuels; it also highlights the need to consider decentralized regulatory approaches, such as effluent taxes and marketable permits, when the data are characterized by large uncertainties. The analysis suggests that a modest improvement in vehicle control technology is probably a cost effective strategy for reducing ozone; however, using a severely reformulated gasoline or an advanced technology, such as the electric vehicle, is unlikely to be cost effective compared with other available options for improving air quality. The cost savings from introducing a market-based approach in place of a vehicle mandate in California and the Northeast are estimated to range from $7 to $29 billion.     

An economic theory of governability: Choosing policy and optimizing performance

When collective violence occurs, a management and decision-making crisis exists for governmental authorities. We examine this situation with an economic model of governability within states. Political decision-makers wish to minimize two goals that enter as components of the government's performance function: political violence and revolutionary change of regime. We further assume that authorities have only a scarce supply of two policy instruments available with which to respond to violence: the accommodation and repression of the demands of their oppositions. Moreover, these elites confront a number of structural determinants of violence and revolution. After laying out these basic components of the model, we propose several theorems about the causes of political performance and about the regime's decision-calculus. These are then proven through a comparative static analysis of the model and by optimizing the performance function. The deductions indicate that the regime's policy instruments produce contradictory effects on the targetted levels of violence and revolution. In general, both accommodation and repression of opponents will, up to some point, reduce violence (an intended consequence) but increase revolution (an unintended consequence). Thus, upon close examination the goals of political decision-makers, to simultaneously minimize both violence and revolution, turn out to be inconsistent. Authorities therefore select an optimal level of performance by balancing the costs and benefits that come from accommodating and repressing their opponents.     

Choosing the least-worst government: The British general election of 2005

This article provides an overview of the British general election of 2005. It examines the major political issues that arose during the Blair government's second term in office and their impact on the governing Labour Party's electoral support. Despite voters' growing sense of weariness with Labour, the Conservative opposition failed to convince the electorate that it was a credible government-in-waiting. The result was that Labour was comfortably returned to office, though with a much-reduced majority. The Liberal Democrats profited from the unpopularity of the Iraq War, while minor parties won their highest ever tally of votes.     

Choosing free trade without amending the U.S. Constitution

This paper documents the functioning of the market in trade protection. It uses a narrative approach to demonstrate that politicians respond to the demands of special interests by forcing open foreign markets and by closing domestic markets. In the process government officials violate property rights, disregard economic logic, damage the world trading system, multiply rent-seeking costs, and destroy wealth. Such outcomes imply that there is a constitutional failure, and that the rules and institutions governing international trade need to be reformed. This paper discusses several such changes and considers how consumers could be mobilized to support them.     

择业中的能动性探析——读马克思的《青年在选择职业时的考虑》

我国社会发展正处在历史转型期,高校毕业生面对着巨大的就业压力是必然的,就业难具有暂时性和阶段性特征。很多青年朋友在社会主义市场经济的大潮中迷失了自我,找寻不到未来世界的方向,人的能动性被遮蔽了,重读马克思的《青年在选择职业时的考虑》,感慨颇多,或许我们能从此文中得到些许借鉴,以期挖掘我们的能动性特质。     

多元化经营的利弊分析及选择要素

多元化经营虽然能够通过共享不同业务之间的资源和生产能力而创造竞争优势,给企业带来发展壮大的机遇,但同时也增加了企业的成本开支,分散了企业资源,加大了管理的难度,甚至带来风险,因而多元化既是一种诱惑,也可能是一种陷阱.企业运用这种战略,成败的关键在于企业所处外部环境及所具备的内部条件是否符合多元化经营的要求.企业在采用多元化战略之前,必须客观评估其必要性.其中,涉及的关键性因素主要有产品或市场相关性、主业特点、经济周期、产业壁垒等.