China’s Political Stability: Global Comparisons

Throughout most of the 20th Century, China had suffered tremendous economic and human losses due to political instability. It is in the most recent decades that the Chinese people have managed to live with political stability. The economic benefits of political stability can hardly be overstated. Yet, China’s political stability is by no means assured. Is China stable or unstable? Is the Chinese regime strong or fragile? To answer these questions, this study has selected a total of 12 sets of publically available indices to measure political instability and placed China on a global scale of comparisons with all the others, both advanced and developing, in the world. It also makes specific comparisons between China and the other four countries of the so-called BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The findings of our global comparisons give China no reasons for celebration. However, China has no reasons for paranoia either. China has indeed faced many threats or challenges to political stability, but, as our study demonstrates, China is no more politically unstable or fragile than many others. Ignoring or underestimating the ripple effect of any destabilizing world event will do China no good, but overreactions also serve China’s interests poorly as fear or paranoia can be highly contagious.     

China’s National Space Program and the “China Dream”

ABSTRACT

The article investigates how the “China Dream,” set as a national Chinese goal through 2049, is underpinned with achievements in outer space. Deriving from the Carl von Clausewitz hypothesis on “the continuation of political objectives by other means” and referring to Xi Jinping’s official statements that link space achievements to these “other means,” the Chinese national space program (focusing on substantial technical details to elicit evidence of progress and how concrete achievements lead to economic and geopolitical advantages) is examined. This article shows that the increasing number of space assets China possesses, including space-based technologies developed either independently or in mutually beneficial partnerships, are crucial for advancing socialism in the Chinese context and in altering the current global balance of power in a more favorable way to China.     

China’s Local Political Turnover in the Twenty-First Century

This paper provides empirical evidence on the incentive role of personnel control in China in the twenty-first century. Employing the city-level turnover data of political leaders in China between 2000 and 2018 and utilizing the fixed effects ordered logit model, we find that the likelihood of promotion of local leaders rises with their economic performance. This relationship holds more firmly in the municipal party secretary. The probability is also found to decrease with the economic performance of their immediate predecessors and neighboring cities. This finding is robust to various robustness tests. We interpret the finding as evidence that the relative economic performance (peer effects) also contributes to the local political turnover, in particular within a province. Moreover, after the Third Plenary Session of the 18^th CPC Central Committee, a material change in the personnel arrangement within the party arises and this promotion mechanism shows a dynamic change. Our study sheds some light on the growing literature emphasizing the relationship between political turnover and economic performance.

     

“Same Bed,Different Dreams” and “Riding Tiger” Dilemmas: China’s Rise and International Relations/Political Economy

This paper seeks to present a framework for understanding the impact of China’s rise on the established international order with a special focus on the contradictions and dilemmas facing both China and the order around it. It suggests heuristic insights from two Chinese cultural and linguistic metaphysics in order to denote the dynamic and interactive relationship between the rise of China and the existing order in terms of both opportunities and challenges. The authors argue that both China and the existing order have been going through periods of “sleeping in the same bed with different dreams”, and now they are in the stage of “riding tiger” in which both sides face dilemmas in their complicated and complex relationship. The paper concludes that the rise of China and the existing order will continue to be intertwined in a dialectic of waxing and waning, and flux and reflux. In order for each to find a regional and global role which the other will accept and support both sides will have to go through a considerable period of struggle, tension and adjustment.     

The Role of China’s County-level Research Offices in Policy Adaptation

Journal of Chinese Political Science - Local governments in China have been given a considerable degree of flexibility in policy formulation and are permitted to adapt central policies to meet the...     

Iraq’s Political Turmoil

Motivated by the government's patronage and corruption, massive political protests in Iraq have mobilised the majority Shia population and weakened Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. He is caught between an intensely disgruntled population and an equally stubborn ruling elite. In a heavily armed population with a recent history of civil war, there is a salient risk that popular demands will be pursued through violence.     

Honghua Men,China’s Grand Strategy: A Framework Analysis

Journal of Chinese Political Science -     

Political Parties and Minority Governance in Hybrid Political Orders: Reflections from Lebanon’s Palestinian Settlements and Kosovo’s Serbian Enclaves

This article analyses how minority populations govern and are governed in South Lebanon’s informal Palestinian settlements and the Serbian enclave in North Kosovo. Drawing on literature about hybrid political orders, it is argued that in both settings political parties play a linchpin role in local governance. Based on this finding, three key functions of political parties in the governance of minority populations in hybrid political orders are identified: representation, provision and brokerage. Understanding the interdependencies and trade-offs between these different roles contributes to remedying the analytical blind spot regarding the nature, positions and roles of political parties in hybrid political orders.     

America’s Indian Ocean Strategy

A combination of structural and policy impediments will tend to keep the Indian Ocean region fragmented in the US policy lens. The United States is likely to use the region as a staging area for counter-terrorism efforts in and around the Persian Gulf, and as a secondary theatre in the deepening strategic competition with China. Increasing tension with Iran could also sharpen US focus on the northwest corner of the region.     

The Dilemmas of China’s Political Science in the Context of the Rise of China

The rise of China has changed the global balance of power, which could also have an impact on the international development of political science scholarship. Very little attention, however, has been paid to the impact of China’s rise on the development of political science within China. This article examines how the rise of China has posed serious challenges to political studies in China. It addresses critical issues concerning the contemporary features and strategic direction of the discipline. It first analyzes three different meanings of what constitutes China’s political studies and discusses three different intellectual production models. It then highlights the dilemmas that political science faces in China, and exposes problems of and obstacles to its development, such as an unwarranted sense of pride, the bureaucratization of the scholarly community, and, critically, the absence of democracy and academic freedom. The paper examines and engages several ongoing debates on China’s political studies. In responding to the debate over whether it is desirable for Chinese political studies to move towards scientification, this paper presents four arguments for a balance between science and the humanities and outlines four strategies for achieving this balance. It also examines the debate on the localization of Chinese political studies and the doctrine of China’s uniqueness; and points out that the rise of China requires Chinese political studies to be cosmopolitan, global and universal, but the current regime is interested in reproducing the discourse of China’s uniqueness to maintain its political legitimacy.     

History and Thought in China’s Traditions

The recent turn to China??s traditions has the potential to correct for the Eurocentrism of Political Science theories. Nevertheless, the overwhelming emphasis on political thought, especially Confucianism, may have its drawbacks. This article suggests that political scientists who are interested in building theories and drawing policy implications should study the verifiable, i.e., history. Unless the purpose is to study philosophy for its own sake, political scientists should study political thought in practice, rather than political thought divorced from history. This article first discusses why it is important to examine history beyond thought. It then analyzes why scholars should not conflate political thought with historical practice. It anchors the analysis with a high-profile recent book on ancient Chinese thought.     

China’s shaky trade figures and their ramifications

Statistical problems and anomalies are arising with respect to China's troubled economy, bringing into doubt some bedrock economic indicators. Perhaps the most important one is China’s trade surplus, which may be significantly overstated. This possibility makes a currency crisis, once considered highly improbable, less so. Such a crisis could reveal that much of what investors and analysts have assumed about China’s economy has been exaggerated.     

Re-Conceptualizing “Legitimacy” for Studying Electoral Politics in Rural China

This paper critically explores and evaluates the theoretical innovations in the conceptualization of Weber’s theory of legitimacy and its application to the study of Chinese politics. It argues that there is a need for a re-conceptualization of the concept in order to give due recognition to the process of legitimating power based on legal-rational principles in the current context. Thus this paper develops a theoretical framework on legitimacy by relating theory to practice in Chinese electoral participation and the local politics of legitimizing rural authority and improving governance at the grassroots level.     

Agonism and Hope in William Apess’s Native American Political Thought

This article examines the Native American thinker, William Apess (Pequot), and especially his Eulogy on King Philip (1836), which argues, ironically, that King Philip—the seventeenth century Wampanoag leader who launched the bloodiest rebellion in New England’s history—ought to be embraced as an American pioneer and canonized as a founding father. Apess satirizes conventional founding narratives, even as he upholds the principles of freedom those narratives support. The effect of this irony is to interrupt and invert discourses of progressive history and American patriotism that underlie Manifest Destiny policies, in ways that open spaces for new historical accounts to surface and compete in a force field of agonistic powers. I argue that Apess’s ironic historical revisionism expresses a political theory of hope, one that I contrast with representations of hope by other nineteenth century Native American political thinkers, such as Plenty Coups (Crow).     

Contemplating China’s Future

Journal of Chinese Political Science - China’s future is one of the most important variables in international affairs. While the world has witnessed the extraordinary socio-economic growth...     

M. Taylor Fravel,Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949

Journal of Chinese Political Science -