Officials' Estimates of the Incidence of “Actual Innocence” Convictions

Evidence indicates that the conviction and imprisonment of factually innocent persons occur with some regularity. Most research focuses on causes, but the incidence of wrongful convictions is an important scientific and policy issue, especially as no official body gathers data on miscarriages of justice. Two methods are available for discovering the incidence of wrongful conviction: (1) enumerating specific cases and (2) having criminal justice experts estimate its incidence. Counts or catalogues of wrongful conviction necessarily undercount its incidence and are subject to accuracy challenges. We surveyed Michigan criminal justice officials, replicating a recent Ohio survey, to obtain an expert estimate of the incidence of wrongful conviction. All groups combined estimated that wrongful convictions occurred at a rate of less than ½ percent in their own jurisdiction and at a rate of 1–3 percent in the United States. Defense lawyers estimate higher rates of wrongful conviction than judges, who estimate higher rates than police officials and prosecutors. These differences may be explained by professional socialization. An overall wrongful conviction estimate of ½ percent extrapolates to about 5,000 wrongful felony convictions and the imprisonment of more than 2,000 innocent persons in the United States every year.     

The Criminal Justice System Creates Incentives for False Convictions

Abstract

The American criminal justice system creates incentives for false conviction. For example, many public crime labs are funded in part per conviction. We show that the number of false convictions per year in the American criminal justice system should be considered “high.” We examine the incentives of police, forensic scientists, prosecutors, and public defenders in the U.S. Police, prosecutors, and forensic scientists often have an incentive to garner convictions with little incentive to convict the right person. These incentives create what economists call a “multitask problem” that seems to be resulting in a needlessly high rate of false convictions. Public defenders lack the resources and incentives needed to provide a vigorous defense for their clients. Corrective measures are discussed, along with a call for more research.     

PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF YOUTHFUL CRIMINAL CAREERS

This paper focuses on the characterization of the criminal careers of youthful offenders. It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters rejecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups—designated here as "frequents" and occasionals." These parameters were estimated for the multiple offenders in a London cohort studied from their first convictions until age 25. In that cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 convictions per year (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction; the occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and termination probability of .33 following each conviction; the frequents were estimated to comprise 43% of the population, and the occasionals the others 57%. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for the London cohort, it must still be tested with other offender populations.     

Predicting charges and convictions for rape suspects in Denmark: characteristics associated with the notion of the ‘credible criminal’

In recent years, focus on the high attrition rates and low conviction rates in sexual assault cases in Scandinavia has increased. Attrition refers to the dropout of cases through the criminal justice system. However, only limited research exists on the importance of suspect characteristics for the legal outcomes in these cases. The present study is the first in Scandinavia to investigate legal and extralegal suspect variables relating to charges and convictions in the criminal justice system regarding suspected offenders in rape and attempted rape cases. All reported cases of rape and attempted rape in the Eastern Jutland Police District from 2008 to 2010 with an identified rape suspect (N = 175) were analysed through binary logistic regression analyses to examine which variables might increase the likelihood of charges or convictions. Results show that suspects with one or more prior sexual assault charges were more likely to be charged and convicted of a rape offence. The results of the present study help improve the understanding of the judicial processing of cases of rape from a different perspective than the victims’ and partially lend support to the hypothesis of ‘the credible criminal’ in terms of investigative and prosecutorial decision-making in rape cases.     

Still Paying for the Past: Examining Gender Differences in Employment Among Individuals with a Criminal Record

Although many studies have examined employment outcomes of those with criminal convictions, no study to date has examined gender differences in employment outcomes of individuals with criminal convictions using a nationally representative sample of individuals from the United States. In this study, we use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine differences in employment after a criminal conviction for females and males. Results reveal that for women with a conviction, a drug offense and having dependent children limit the number of weeks of employment. For males, race, education, age at first conviction, and a subsequent conviction predict the number of weeks employed. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

Self-Reported and Official Offending from Age 10 to Age 56

In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, over 400 London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 48 in face-to-face interviews and up to age 56 in criminal records. About 42 % of the males were convicted up to age 56. During five age ranges up to age 47, 94 % of the males admitted at least one of eight offenses, in comparison with 31 % who were convicted for at least one of these offenses in these age ranges. The prevalence of offending, and the number of offenses committed, decreased steadily after age 18 according to both convictions and self-reports. On average, there were 38 self-reported offenses per conviction, and this ratio also decreased with age. Convicted males self-reported 25 offenses per conviction on average. It is concluded that the “scaling-up factor” from convictions to self-reported offenses is very important, especially in evaluating the effectiveness of intervention programs.     

Psychopathy, intelligence and conviction history

The current study examined the relationship between psychopathy, intelligence and two variables describing the conviction history (length of conviction and number of prior convictions). It was hypothesized that psychopathy factors (interpersonal and antisocial factors assuming a 2-factor model or interpersonal, affective, lifestyle and antisocial factors assuming a 4-factor model) would be related in different ways to IQ scores, length of conviction and number of prior convictions. Psychopathy and IQ were assessed using the PCL:SV and the CFT 20-R respectively. Results indicated no association between interpersonal psychopathy features (Factor 1, two-factor model), IQ and the number of prior convictions but a positive association between Factor 1 and the length of conviction. Antisocial features (Factor 2, two-factor model) were negatively related to IQ and the length of conviction and positively related to the number of prior convictions. Results were further differentiated for the four-factor model of psychopathy. The relationship between IQ and psychopathy features was further assessed by statistically isolating the effects of the two factors of psychopathy. It was found that individuals scoring high on interpersonal features of psychopathy are more intelligent than those scoring high on antisocial features, but less intelligent than those scoring low on both psychopathy features. The results underpin the importance of allocating psychopathic individuals to subgroups on the basis of personality characteristics and criminological features. These subgroups may identify different types of offenders and may be highly valuable for defining treatment needs and risk of future violence.     

The effects of marital breakdown on offending: results from a prospective longitudinal survey of males

Abstract

We examined the factors that predicted marital separation in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, which is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 London males. We found that dishonesty, having a wife with a conviction(s), convictions, a poor relationship with parents, no exams passed, unprotected sex and having a shotgun marriage predicted marital breakdown. Males from broken homes due to marital conflict had a moderate risk of suffering marital breakdown themselves but the effect was mediated by having conviction(s). An analysis in which separated men were matched with controls on age at marriage, prior convictions and a propensity score predicting the likelihood of separation showed that a man's convictions increased after becoming separated. However, if a man formed a new intimate relationship, the increase in convictions after separation was reduced.     

What Do Prosecutors Maximize? Evidence from the Careers of U.S. Attorneys

This study examines the performance of chief federal prosecutors(U.S. attorneys) and their subsequent careers. In a sample of570 attorneys in office from 1969 to 2000, the length of prisonsentences is positively related to subsequent favorable careeroutcomes for U.S. attorneys. In contrast, conviction rates donot appear to affect the careers of U.S. attorneys. These resultsare consistent with longer total prison sentences’ beingpersonally beneficial to prosecutors, and prosecutors’maximizing the length of prison sentences. Overall, the resultssuggest that sentence length, as opposed to convictions rates,is the relevant performance metric.     

The impact of timing and frequency of parental criminal behaviour and risk factors on offspring offending

This paper explores mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of criminal behaviour by investigating specifically the timing and frequency of the parents' criminal behaviour while including risk factors for criminal behaviour. The results demonstrate a dose–response relationship: parents' number of criminal convictions is positively related to offspring's conviction rate. Furthermore, children whose parents had only been convicted before the child's birth have more convictions than those whose parents had never been convicted. Children whose parents had been convicted after the child's birth have more convictions than those whose parents had only been convicted before the child's birth, but this difference can be explained partly by the observation that the latter group had fewer risk factors for crime. When parental convictions at different ages were examined, children whose parents had been convicted between their 7th and 13th birthdays exhibit more criminal behaviour than children whose parents were convicted in other periods, but none of the differences were significant. There does not appear to be a sensitive period for the impact of parental criminal behaviour. The results demonstrate support for static as well as dynamic explanations of intergenerational transmission such as the transmission of a criminogenic environment and/or mediation through risk factors.     

Asymmetries in prior conviction reasoning: truth suppression effects in child protection contexts

Abstract

In three empirical studies we examined how people reason about prior convictions in child abuse cases. We tested whether the disclosure of similar prior convictions prompts a mental representation or an additive probative value (Criminal Justice Act, 2003). Asymmetrical use of similar priors were observed in three studies. A pilot study showed that disclosure of a second prior did not contribute a weight equivalent to that of the first disclosure. Study 1 showed jurors did not see left-handed evidence (i.e. matching victim bruising) as more indicative of guilt than right-handedness unless a prior conviction was present, and the presence of priors suppressed the generation of alternative possibilities indicative of innocence. Study 2 showed that disclosure did not decrease community ratings of re-offending propensity and dangerousness as much as a similar prior conviction increased them. We consider the results in the context of a new psychological theory of prior conviction bias and the consequences for the implementation of Section 100 of the Criminal Justice Act (2003).     

RECIDIVIST IMPACTS OF DIFFERENTIAL SENTENCING PRACTICES FOR BURGLARY OFFENDERS

The research reported here attempts to examine the recidivist impacts of probationary sentences versus incarceration. Statistically controlled comparisons were run on a probability sample of 100 offenders sentenced for residential or commercial burglary convictions in 1971. Subsequent arrest, conviction. and imprisonment data were gathered from official agency records through March of 1975. The results of this study indicate that for persons sentenced for burglary the likelihood of subsequent conviction for a felony or for any crime is less for probationer offenders than for any other sentence type. The strongest predictors of recidivism (defined as subsequent conviction for crime) were age, previous incarceration experience, and sentence type. Length of sentence. type of release, and number of previous arrests were essentially unrelated to subsequent rates of recidivism.     

Prosecutor Risk,Maturation, and Wrongful Conviction Practice

In this article we rethink the connection between prosecutorial experience and conviction psychology that undergirds much of the academic literature about wrongful convictions. The conviction psychology account of prosecutorial behavior asserts that prosecutorial susceptibility to cognitive biases deepens over time, thereby increasing the risk that prosecutors will become involved in wrongful convictions the longer they stay in the profession. Our interviews with more than 200 state prosecutors call into question the basis for this asserted correlation between prosecutorial experience and risk of misconduct. The prosecutors we met consistently reported that, all else equal, prosecutors tend to become more balanced, rather than more adversarial, over time. Hence, the prosecutors who present the greatest risk of producing a wrongful conviction are those who are either inexperienced or resistant to the normal maturation process. For this reason, we suggest that wrongful conviction researchers and database designers pay closer attention to the variables associated with prosecutorial experience and resistance that might affect the development of prosecutorial maturity and the consequent risk of wrongful convictions.     

A PROSPECTIVE TEST OF A CRIMINAL CAREER MODEL*

In an earlier article in this journal, Barnett, Blumstein, and Farrington (1987) formulated a model that described the criminal careers of the multiple offenders in a cohort of London males that had been studied from their 10th to 25th birthdays. That model involved two subpopulations of offenders (denoted as “frequents” and “occasionals”), each characterized by a constant annual conviction rate (μ) and a constant probability (p) of terminating the career following a conviction. This article describes the results of a prospective and predictive test of the model using new data collected on the same offenders from their 25th to 30th birthdays. The original model accurately predicted the number of recidivists, the degree of recidivism risk, the total number of recidivist convictions, and the time intervals between recidivist convictions. However, the predictions for the frequents suffered some distortions introduced by a few “intermittent” offenders who seemed to have terminated their careers, but who re-initiated offending during the test period after a long gap.     

Teenage childbirth and young adult criminal convictions: A quasi-experimental study of criminal outcomes for teenage mothers

Purpose

Teenage childbirth is associated with poor psychosocial outcomes for teen mothers. One example is that teen mothers have higher rates of antisocial behavior. The extant research has not been able to determine if teenage motherhood is independently associated with criminal behavior, or if the association is due to selection factors associated with both teenage childbirth and criminal behavior.

Methods

We used longitudinal data from Swedish national registers and sibling-comparisons (both full- and half-siblings) to identify the extent to which there is an independent association between teenage childbirth and mothers’ likelihood of criminal conviction between ages 20-30, or if the association is confounded by familial (including genetic or environmental) factors that make sisters similar.

Results

Women who began childbearing as teenagers were more likely to be convicted of a crime in young adulthood compared to women who delayed childbearing. When sisters were compared, the association between teenage childbirth and criminal convictions disappeared. Multivariate behavior genetic analyses suggest genetic and shared environmental account for the association.

Conclusions

The statistical association between teenage childbirth and early adulthood criminal convictions is confounded by genetic and shared environmental factors that influence both the likelihood of teenage childbirth and risk of early adulthood criminal conviction.     

Contractualism and the Death Penalty

It is a truism that there are erroneous convictions in criminal trials. Recent legal findings show that 3.3% to 5% of all convictions in capital rape-murder cases in the U.S. in the 1980s were erroneous convictions. Given this fact, what normative conclusions can be drawn? First, the article argues that a moderately revised version of Scanlon’s contractualism offers an attractive moral vision that is different from utilitarianism or other consequentialist theories, or from purely deontological theories. It then brings this version of Scanlonian contractualism to bear on the question of whether the death penalty, life imprisonment, long sentences, or shorter sentences can be justified, given that there is a non-negligible rate of erroneous conviction. Contractualism holds that a permissible act must be justifiable to everyone affected by it. Yet, given the non-negligible rate of erroneous conviction, it is unjustifiable to mete out the death penalty, because such a punishment is not justifiable to innocent murder convicts. It is further argued that life imprisonment will probably not be justified (unless lowering the sentence to a long sentence will drastically increase the murder rate). However, whether this line of argument could be further extended would depend on the impact of lowering sentences on communal security.     

A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness

Escalation in crime seriousness over the criminal lifecourse continues to be an important issue to study in criminal careers. Quantitative research in this area has not yet been well developed owing to the difficulty of measuring crime seriousness and the complexity of escalation trajectories. In this paper we suggest that there are two types of escalation process—escalation associated with experience of the criminal justice process, and escalation associated with age and maturation. Using the 1953 birth cohort from the England and Wales Offenders Index followed up to 1999, and a recently developed seriousness scale of offenses, we constructed the individual sequences of seriousness scores from conviction to conviction. These individual sequences were then analyzed using a variety of longitudinal mixed models, with age, number of conviction occasions, sex and number of offenses used as covariates. The results suggest that ageing is associated with de-escalation whereas the number of conviction occasions are associated with escalation, with the two processes pulling in different directions. This conceptual framework helps to disentangle previously contradictory results in the escalation literature.     

Can Making It Harder to Convict Criminals Ever Reduce Crime?

This paper attempts to find the optimal level of the burden of proof needed in criminal cases in order to minimize crime. It also aims to provide an explanation for the higher burden of proof required in criminal cases than civil cases. It assumes that police officers receive incentive payments for convictions in cases they investigate. Although the direct effect of a higher burden of proof requirement is to reduce the probability of conviction, the indirect effect is to force police officers to build stronger cases and put more effort into finding suspects who are more likely to be guilty. Moreover, the increase in the marginal probability of conviction potential criminals face when they actually commit a crime increases. These factors imply that a reduction in the burden of proof will not necessarily reduce crime.     

Stinging the Detroit criminal: A total system perspective

The success of sting operations (fake-fences) has been reported widely with impressive aggregate statistics on arrests and convictions. In this paper, we present a more detailed view of a successful Detroit sting program. We follow a sting participant's involvement from the time he entered the storefront until final sentencing, the result of the sting. Previously unreported statistics that we present include prior convictions and sentences for those involved in the sting, the number of sales an individual made to the sting and data on final sentences. More importantly we explore relationships between the various statistics. Our most important finding is that a sting operation is an effective way of getting criminals off the streets for extended periods of time. Eighty percent of those convicted for receiving and concealing stolen property were incarcerated, and the average minimum sentence was 19 months. The data also suggest the importance of multiple sales by an individual to the sting. The number of sales was shown to affect both the likelihood of conviction and the type of sentence imposed.     

The Prediction of Young Homicide and Violent Offenders

Aim was to investigate a range of potentially modifiable risk factors for boys in late childhood for later violence and homicide convictions. Boys from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (N = 1,517) were measured through self-reports and official records in late childhood (ages 11–13) on a large number of potentially modifiable risk factors, and were followed up in juvenile and adult criminal records in terms of violence and homicide. Predictors of conviction for homicide largely overlapped with predictors of conviction for violence. Twenty three out of 28 possible risk factors significantly predicted later violence convictions. Regression analysis identified four significant modifiable risk factors in late childhood for any violent offenders: physical abuse, parental stress, bad friends and low school motivation. The higher the number of early risk factors, the higher the probability of later conviction for violent offenses including homicide. The discussion focus on single-, and multi-modal interventions in late childhood to reduce later violence and possibly homicide.