Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey

Based on ‘endogenous’ growth theory, the paper examines the effect of trade liberalization on long-run income per capita and economic growth in Turkey. Although the presumption must be that free trade has a beneficial effect on long run growth, counter examples can also be found. This controversy increases the importance of empirical work in this area. Using the most recent data we employ multivariate cointegration analysis to test the long run relationship among the variables in hand. In a multivariate context, the effect of determinants such as increasing returns to scale, investment in human and physical capital are also included in both theoretical and empirical works. Our causality evidence between the long run growth and a number of indicators of trade liberalizations confirms the predictions of the ‘new growth theory’. However, the overall effect of the possible breaks and/or policy change and unsustainability in the 1990s looks contradictory and deserves further investigation.     

Macroeconomic Development and Civil Litigation

This paper contributes to the explanation of the tremendous rise in civil litigation activity in Austria over the last four decades by analysing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on civil litigation. We find that the number of transactions per individual—proxied by the level of real per capita GDP—positively influences the amount of litigation per capita. Inertia in litigious behavior reinforces effects. In the short run, however, we observe a countercyclical pattern of litigious activity. Cointegration analysis confirms the short run negative association, and a long run cointegrating relationship between GDP and civil litigation. Several robustness tests corroborate our results. Rent-seeking interpretations, and possible detrimental effects on the long run growth prospects cannot be excluded.     

Inclusive growth,human capital development and natural resource rent in SSA

This paper seeks to achieve two objectives. First, we argued for the increase in government expenditure on education and health to examine the possibility of achieving inclusive growth. Second, financing gap model was employed to estimate the potential growth in GDP per capita that is accruable to the economy if government use natural resource rent to finance increase in expenditure of education and health. Relying on dataset for 18 SSA countries, among the results obtained showed that both government expenditures are found to be significant for explaining growth in SSA. However, augmenting health expenditure with natural resource appears to be more significant for making growth process inclusive. Also, the results of the simulation exercise indicate that increasing government expenditure on health would increase GDP per capita growth by over 3.1 %. The policy implication of this is drawn based upon the results obtained.     

Does higher level of education of the labor force cause growth? Evidence from Bulgaria

This study tries to give new evidence on the relationship between human capital and output per capita in the former centrally-planned economies. Educational attainment of the labor force is used as a proxy for the human capital stock in Bulgaria. The empirical models are based on the extended Cobb–Douglas production function with labor, human capital as well as physical capital. In addition, the reduced form specifications include export and foreign direct investments. The econometric outcome suggests that an increase of the share of people with upper secondary education in the labor force is not related to the rate of long-run growth. Moreover, it is inversely related to the shortrun changes in real output. On the contrary, a positive impact is derived for tertiary education. In general, the study does not fully support the hypothesis that the higher average educational level of the population fosters growth. Export, physical capital and foreign direct investments turn out to be the driving forces of Bulgaria’s growth. A partial correlation analysis implies that the quality of human capital measured by foreign language proficiency could explain the insignificant effect of secondary education.     

Finance-growth-poverty nexus: a re-assessment of the trickle-down hypothesis in China

Poverty has remained one of the prominent challenges of humanity. Different solutions have been suggested to curb poverty. Economic growth and financial development are two such crucial tools for overcoming poverty, as frequently pointed out by economists. These tools work through the so-called trickle-down hypothesis, which contends that a well-functioning financial system would enhance poverty reduction by promoting economic growth. One country that appears to have manifested this hypothesis is China. However, the empirical test of the trickle-down hypothesis for China is scant. In addition, most of the existing studies have failed to account for regime-shift in parameters or structural breaks. This paper attempts to fill this void by testing the trickle-down hypothesis for China during the period 1985–2014. We utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of GDP, and money and quasi money as percentage of GDP; annual percentage change in real GDP per capita to proxy economic growth; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth. By accounting for structural breaks in our empirical specifications, we found overwhelming support for the trickle-down hypothesis at the national level. That is, we found financial development to cause economic growth, which in turn causes poverty reduction in China at the national level. This has important policy implications.     

International integration and the determinants of regional development in China

Concerns about the duration of China??s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China??s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced a more moderate development. To obtain broad continuos growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (1) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (2) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China??s provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Extending the model using an unbalanced panel leads to a positive effect of the quality of governance and institutions on development.     

The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7

The financial crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis together had a profound impact on the current economic environment. This study reexamines the established stylized facts and previous evidence regarding the predictive association between financial variables and real economic activity considering changed economic circumstances. This paper focuses on the predictive ability of the term spread, short-term interest rate and stock returns for real GDP growth in the G-7 countries. We compare the predictive content of nominal financial variables with that of real financial variables and consider the proper number of financial predictors and time variations of forecasting performance. The forecasting results unambiguously indicate that financial variables have regained their predictive power since the financial crisis. Moreover, this study shows that real financial variables are superior to nominal variables and that using several financial indicators for forecasting GDP growth is preferable.     

Growth,debt and public infrastructure

This paper presents a closed economy model of endogenous growth driven by capital externalities arising from both private capital and public infrastructure. The model is calibrated to fit data for India, an approximately closed economy. Simulations suggest that fiscal policy certainly matters and the choice of the income taxation rate, the mix of government spending between infrastructure and public consumption goods, and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the long-run growth rate. Intertemporal aspects of fiscal policy are also important and the precommitment (time-inconsistent) and non-precommitment policies differ substantially.     

Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views

By making use of annual data from Malaysia for the period 1970 to 2006, this paper examines Wagner’s law and the Keynesian hypothesis concerning the link between real government spending and real GDP. Unlike most existing studies, we utilize both a bivariate and a multivariate model. In addition, we consider two cases: one that focuses on the link between aggregate government spending and GDP and the other where the link between government spending on education and GDP is considered. The use of a multivariate model serves to reduce the problem of serious misspecification which appears to have been ignored by most existing studies. The presence of cointegration is investigated by means of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. This approach also allows one to distinguish between the short and the long-run relationships. Within the context of a bivariate model, our empirical analysis reveals that aggregate government spending Granger causes the real GDP which supports Wagner’s law. However, in a multivariate framework, we found support for the Keynesian hypothesis suggesting that omitted variables bias can significantly alter the validity of Wagner’s law.     

THE RELATIONSHIP OF POLICE AND CRIME

This study develops a model to measure the impact of police expenditure on crime rates across cities. It specifically allows for the two-way relationship between police and crime. Other things being equal, cities with more police per capita should have lower crime rates, if police reduce crime. Simultaneously, the higher the crime rate, the greater the public demand for police. In its final formations, the model contains two identifiable equations with two endogenous variables, police expenditure per capita and the crime rate. Following a discussion of the reliability of crime statistics, the model is estimated by two-stage least squares, using FBI crime data for 119 cities in 1960. These two-stage results are compared with ordinary least-square estimation results and are found to be clearly superior.     

Post-colonial trade between Russia and former Soviet republics: back to big brother?

We examine the developments in trade patterns between the former Soviet republics in the years following the initial breakup shock. After a huge fall following the Soviet breakup of the early 1990s, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade with Russia began improving, and there have been recent formal efforts at Eurasian Economic Integration. This might be taken, a priori, as contrary to the hypothesis of gradual decline in Head, Mayer and Ries (HMR in J Int Econ 81(1):1–14, 2010)—or perhaps as evidence of the power of restored trade agreements, such as the incipient Eurasian Economic Union. We decompose the region’s trade into theory-consistent ‘gravity’ components, in order to analyze dynamic changes in the components since the Soviet era. Despite the sharp falls after 1991, trade in 1995 still shows strong ties, consistent with high dyadic (country pair) components linked to trade specialization. By contrast, in the second decade, the ties (dyads) began to weaken significantly and calibrated trade costs tend to rise, despite attempts at renewed integration. Rather, the sharp improvement in trade volumes was mainly due to the sharp recoveries in GDP levels for both Russia and many of the Central Asian Countries, associated with improvements in the global economy and economic ties with the World (especially with EU and China). We would therefore conclude that the recovery in trade between Russia and Central Asia reflects monadic factors (i.e., the regional economic recovery) and does not contradict the HMR (2010) hypothesis. Nevertheless, further, dynamic analysis shows that there are strong long-run ties within the CIS and Russia, which are not declining, and that sticky post-colonial adjustment does not appear set to eliminate the current bias of trade between these republics.

     

Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000

This paper empirically assesses the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on violent crime in the United States. Using national-level time-series data over the period 1960–2000, an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated for overall violent crime, murder, rape and assault. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among the examined variables, but significant short-run relationships hold. Imprisonment growth, income inequality, alcohol consumption, and racial composition of the male youth population are shown to influence the short-run behaviour of violent crime.     

Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price–Wages Models for Poland and Hungary

In previous studies concerning short- and long-run relationships for price–wage models, the cointegration analysis has been developed assuming the existence of a unique cointegration parametrisation. These empirical results reveal the presence of significant relationships, both in the short and in the long run, among prices, wages, labour productivity and exchange rate. In this paper we intend to develop the possibility of a more general type of cointegration, allowing for a change at an unknown time period in the sample. At this end we will consider mainly the long-run relationship among these variables using the testing procedure suggested by Gregory and Hansen (1996a,b). This permits us to consider a multivariate extension of the endogenous break univariate approach and, in the meantime, this enables us to test for cointegration in the presence of possible structural breaking cointegrated relationships under the alternative. The empirical analysis of a multivariate model for price–wage relationship both for Poland and Hungary, over the period 1970–1996, is presented and discussed.     

Economic freedom and economic growth in India: What is the empirical relationship?

The recent moves of the Indian economy towards further opening up of the economy with less government control has brought about changes in its policy structure. The objective of this study is to test the hypothesis that greater economic freedom leads to higher levels of economic growth in a federal system like India where business regulations, taxation, and government spending differ widely across states. Pooled linear regression model is applied to categorical data containing economic freedom and its three components as independent variables, and growth rates of income per capita and gross state domestic product as dependent variable, for a panel of twenty states for three time periods, 2004/2005, 2006/2007 and 2009/2010. While examining this relationship, the variables like initial income per capita, initial literacy rate, sectoral composition, and inflation rate are taken as control. The results tend to establish the fundamental effects of economic freedom in fostering economic growth. Three individual dimensions of economic freedom namely size of government, strong rule of law, and flexible regulations governing credit, labour, and product markets are likely to exert beneficial impacts on income growth. Initial income per capita exerts a positive impact, thus proving the prevalence of regional divergence on this front. High human capital, greater share of the services and inflation exert direct impact on growth.     

Corruption and turnout in Portugal—a municipal level study

This article ventures to be one of the first studies that examines the relationship between corruption and electoral turnout on the sub-national level. Taking Portugal, a southern European country with nationally relatively high levels of corruption and relatively low levels of turnout, as a case, we examine the relationship between the two concepts across Portugal’s 304 out of 308 municipalities for the legislative elections in 2005 and 2009. Controlling for municipal level GDP per capita, unemployment, the percentage of senior citizens, and population density, as well as the closeness of the election and the district magnitude, we find corruption to be a rather strong mobilizing agent. Compared to “clean” municipalities, our results indicate that turnout is several percentage points higher in “very corrupt” municipalities.     

Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa

In this paper we discuss relationship between export diversity and economic performance, focusing on Brazil, China, India and South Africa (BCIS). Using time data on exports over the period 1962?C2000 and Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models for each country, we note the similarities as well as differences in the patterns of diversification in these countries. We find evidence of a U-shape relationship between per capita income and export specialization in at least China and South Africa, and given that the results from Granger causality testing are inconclusive and not robust with regards to export diversification measures, some preliminary evidence from the results suggest that export diversification Granger causes GDP per capita in Brazil, China and South Africa, but not in India, where it is rather GDP per capita changes that are driving export diversification. From AGE modeling we find that South Africa differs from the other economies in that it is the only case where export diversification has an unambiguously positive impact on economic development while in contrast in Brazil, China and India, it is rather export specialization that is preferred. We show that the manner in which export diversification is obtained may be important: if it is obtained with less of a reduction in traditional exports, the impacts are better (less negative).     

Unravelling the Embedded Liberal Bargain: Labour and Social Welfare Law in the Context of EU Market Integration

European economic integration with a minimalist social policy at EU level was in part made possible by strong domestic labour market and social welfare institutions. The main contention of this paper is that EU market liberalisation was embedded within institutions of social citizenship at domestic level, which served to counter the liberalisation of the internal market. But this settlement has been put under strain. In addition to the challenges posed to the sustainability of European welfare states by the global economic crisis, the internal market jurisprudence of the Court of Justice casts doubt on the sustainability of the ‘embedded liberal bargain’. This paper focuses on the role of the Court, in particular in its jurisprudence on the interaction between (EU) market freedoms and (national) labour law, which undermines the ability of states to retain their regulatory autonomy over labour or social welfare law and, arguably, speeds up the unravelling of the ‘embedded liberal bargain’.     

Economic freedom and economic rights: Direction,significance and ideology

The discussion here takes stock of and analyses the way in which ideas of economic freedom and basic economic rights have evolved during the last half century to generate legal discourse and legal action, and with what effect, with particular reference to Europe as a site for such developments. It is necessary to probe the understanding and purpose of such ‘rights talk’ and also to set the discourse in relevant ideological contexts. For the purpose of this exercise, a broad distinction is drawn between two major categories of economic right. The first category may be broadly described as ‘integration rights’—entrepreneurial in character, forward‐looking and opportunistic in a historical context of supranational integration and trade liberalisation. The second category, in contrast, may be termed ‘vulnerability rights’; these are more protective in character, and serve to enhance the opportunities of the economically disadvantaged, those sections of the population at risk of social exclusion and poverty. An assessment is made, on the one hand, of the achievement of the movement to exploit integration rights, and on the other hand, the prospect for the mobilisation and assertion of vulnerability rights in the wake of governmental policies of austerity.     

Total factor productivity and the role of entrepreneurship

The absence of evidence in the scholarly literature for a tested long-term relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth is at odds with the importance attributed to entrepreneurship in the policy arena. The present paper addresses this absence, introducing entrepreneurship using four different and accepted models explaining the total factor productivity of twenty OECD countries with data for the period 1969–2010. Traditionally, entrepreneurship is not addressed in these models. We show that in all models—as well as a joint one—entrepreneurship has a significant influence while the remaining effects largely stay the same. Entrepreneurship is measured as the business ownership rate (number of business owners per workforce) corrected for the level of economic development (GDP per capita).     

Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker,exchange rate and structural breaks

We explore the nexus between tourism, exchange rate and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period 1980–2014. Using the augmented Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure whilst accounting for structural breaks using Bai and Perron (J Appl Econ 18(1):1–22, 2003) multiple break tests, the short-run and long-run association and impacts are examined. The results confirm the presence of a long-run association between tourism receipts (% of GDP), exchange rate, capital per worker and output per worker. The regression results show a 1% increase in tourism receipts results in a 0.03 and 0.06% increase in output per worker in the short-run and long-run, respectively. A unidirectional causality is noted from tourism to output per worker; from exchange rate to output per worker and capital per worker; and from output to capital, in per worker terms. Finally, we note that although structural breaks periods have negative association with economic growth, they are not statistically significant.