伊斯兰教与马来西亚政治民主化

马来西亚是伊斯兰国家,其政治发展与种族关系和伊斯兰教息息相关,在政治民主化进程中,种族政治和宗教政治都发挥了重要作用.本文主要通过安瓦尔事件以及伊斯兰党的理念和实践研究伊斯兰教在马来西亚政治民主化中的作用,进而探讨伊斯兰原教旨主义与政治民主化的关系,探讨伊斯兰教能否推动伊斯兰国家的民主化进程.     

突尼斯政治民主化中的欧洲因素探析

欧盟是突尼斯政治民主化的重要外因。欧洲国家的压力引起了突尼斯1861年宪政改革,从而开启了突尼斯的政治现代化。同样,欧洲因素使得哈比卜.布尔吉巴和"布尔吉巴主义"在突尼斯确立了统治地位,侍从主义体制延续到共和国时期。突尼斯在欧洲影响下,其民主化进程呈现独特的特点。1995年欧盟提出"欧盟—地中海伙伴关系"计划,标志着其三位一体民主促进机制的形成。这一机制在突尼斯产生了重要影响,但也存在一些不足。     

后苏哈托时代伊斯兰教与印尼政治民主化

1997年金融危机引发印尼的政治危机,统治印尼三十余年的苏哈托政权于1998年倒台,印尼进入政治民主化的新阶段.伊斯兰教势力也成为印尼政治中的重要角色,并在印尼政治民主化中发挥了积极的作用.     

东南亚民主化浪潮中的女领袖现象探析

自20世纪80年代中期民主化浪潮以来,东南亚涌现出众多女领袖,她们因为是著名男性政治家的妻女而对民众有较大的号召力;因为具有非暴力和温顺的女性特质而得到对长期专制统治极度不满的民众的拥戴;因为追求自由、民主和人权的理想而被视为民主的象征;因为个人能力而在危机中挺身而出。这些使她们能在民主化浪潮中成为领袖,团结反对派力量,挑战专制统治。但东南亚女领袖现象并不是妇女地位提高的标志,也不表明父权制的式微,因为正是父权制为女领袖提供了支持,而女领袖并不挑战父权制,相反,她们利用并维护父权制。     

Support for and Opposition to Democratization in Hong Kong

It is not easy to say what proportion of Hong Kong residents support democratization. Although the overwhelming majority of Hong Kong people support universal suffrage of the chief executive, public opinion in Hong Kong is divided into two opinions about whether they should accept the Chinese-style of democracy in which candidates are selected before election by the Chinese Central Government to exclude pro-democracy camp candidates. The majority of Hong Kong citizens do not want a person from the pro-democracy camp who is not on good terms with the central government to become the chief executive, and the “Occupy” movement was not welcomed because of prolonged occupation of the major streets. It is not easy for the pro-democracy camp to persuade conservative ordinary people to support full-democracy, and even if they succeed in changing public opinion, the central government and mainland people will become the next obstacle. The future perspective of Hong Kong's democratization is not bright, but young people's demand for democracy is very strong and they may well change Hong Kong society. It may also be possible that a wave of political consciousness among the young could eventually also sweep mainland China.     

印尼民主转型和民主化软着陆

本文讨论1998年以来印尼民主转型的进程,分析了民主化的成果以及为此而付出的代价.文章接着考察了印尼民主化过程中出现的对强人权威政权的怀念,对大选结果中反映出来的强人政治回归的现象进行了分析.最后,作者对印尼能否突破"民主--专制--再民主--再专制"的怪圈,实现民主化的软着陆提出了自己的见解.     

抗争的动力:新媒体与缅甸的民主化

自从2007年以来,缅甸社会政治发生了很大变化,其中新媒体起了很关键的作用。在2007年"藏红花"革命和2008年纳吉斯风灾中,缅甸人民利用互联网、移动电话等新媒体技术向世界传递了政府镇压和掩盖的真相。缅甸军人政府也明显感到了新媒体技术对其统治的压力,因此在2010年缅甸大选之前,严格控制国内的互联网。新媒体技术的出现虽然没有导致缅甸社会权力结构发生实质性的变化,但是新媒体技术打破了原来军政府对信息的封锁,逐渐促进了缅甸的民主化进程。     

Historical Institutionalism and Economic Policymaking – Determinants of the Pattern of Economic Policy in Brazil, 1930–1960

From 1930 to 1960, Brazil adopted a pattern of economic policy marked by strong state intervention, high levels of protectionism, disregard of exports and a permissive treatment of inflation. These policies distorted the model of industrialisation and had a negative impact on the prospects for economic development. This article employs a historical institutionalist approach to investigate how the international context, the ideology of the policymakers, the role of the technocrats and the pressures of various social groups, especially the industrialists, influenced decisions on economic policy, contributing to the consolidation of the pattern described above.     

Criminal Violence and Democratization in Central America: The Survival of the Violent State

Why does Nicaragua have less violent crime than Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras? All these countries underwent political transitions in the 1990s. Many explanations point to the legacies of war, socioeconomic underdevelopment, and neoliberal structural reforms. However, these arguments do not fully explain why, despite economic reforms conducted throughout the region, war‐less Honduras and wealthier Guatemala and El Salvador have much more crime than Nicaragua. This article argues that public security reforms carried out during the political transitions shaped the ability of the new regimes to control the violence produced by their own institutions and collaborators. In the analysis of the crisis of public security, it is important to bring the state back. The survival of violent entrepreneurs in the new security apparatus and their relationship with new governing elites foster the conditions for the escalation of violence in northern Central America.     

Democratization in Gulf Monarchies: A New Challenge to the GCC

Dr. Kéchichian is the author of Succession in Saudi Arabia (Palgrave, 2001; Beirut and London: Dar Al Saqi, 2003 [in Arabic]); Oman and the World: The Emergence of an Independent Foreign Policy (RAND, 1995); and coauthor, with R. Hrair Dekmejian, of The Just Prince: A Manual of Leadership (London: Saqi Books, 2003). His most recent study, Succession in Arab Monarchies , written under a Smith Richardson Foundation grant, is forthcoming in 2005.     

Undermining the Rule of Law: Democratization and the Dark Side of Police Reform in Mexico

This article asks whether democratization, under certain historical conditions, may relate to the deteriorating rule of law. Focusing on Mexico City, where police corruption is significant, this study argues that the institutionalized legacies of police power inherited from Mexico's one-party system have severely constrained its newly democratic state's efforts to reform the police. Mexico's democratic transition has created an environment of partisan competition that, combined with decentralization of the state and fragmentation of its coercive and administrative apparatus, exacerbates intrastate and bureaucratic conflicts. These factors prevent the government from reforming the police sufficiently to guarantee public security and earn citizen trust, even as the same factors reduce capacity, legitimacy, and citizen confidence in both the police and the democratically elected state. This article suggests that when democracy serves to undermine rather than strengthen the rule of law, more democracy can actually diminish democracy and its quality.     

民主化和区域主义相关性研究:东盟的地区实践

民主化的实践对于东南亚区域主义产生了深远影响。随着东南亚地区合作的不断推进,政治转型成为该地区当下所面临的重要议题。本文拟结合民主化与区域主义两者关系的分析,探索传统上以精英为主导的区域主义正在经历的深刻嬗变。研究表明,民主化对于东南亚区域主义发展范式的影响是复杂的,以公民社会为主要载体的参与式区域主义方兴未艾,两种类型的区域主义勾画了东盟地区治理的图景。