Go Ahead Steadily and Avoid Eagerness

If China’s strategic planning is analyzed as a movement from goals to actions,it becomes possible to see whether short-term goals that lead to large results may not be best long-term.Strategic planning consists of three key factors,first to set up correct goals,second to evaluate the situation precisely,and third to act correctly.Evaluation,the second step,assesses advantages and disadvantages in the process toward strategic decision-making.The third step,creating the correct strategy,policies and guidelines,will mandate actions in accord with a well-organized format.To use short-hand,the three are:what we want to do,what we can do,and how we can do it.During the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression,Mao     

A Roadmap for Sino-Indian Cooperation in Afghanistan

As NATO and Western powers begin to take a backseat in Afghanistan＇s future,one of the most pressing questions is what role the region can play in helping Afghanistan to become a prosperous and stable nation.Numerous efforts are already underway through multilateral and bilateral forums,yet the key to regional cooperation for Afghanistan＇ s future lies through closer interaction between Beijing and New Delhi.Drawing on a research project spanning a number of workshops in Beijing,New Delhi and Qatar and involving influential thinkers and experts from China,India,the UK and Afghanistan,this paper will try to map out specific ideas that policymakers in Beijing and New Delhi can explore as avenues of cooperation.Post-2014 Afghanistan will remain a major regional concern for at least the short to medium term.The earlier China and India can develop workable collaborative undertakings,the sooner they can forge a stable and prosperous neighbourhood.     

The Role and Function of Xinjiang in Sub-regional Cooperation around Afghanistan

Xinjiang is the only Chinese territory that neighbors Afghanistan.It plays a special and important role and function in sub-regional cooperation around Afghanistan. Sub-regional Cooperation around Afghanistan Afghanistan is located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent in the China,South Asia and Central Asia region.It is not only the vital communication hub of Eurasia and the Middle East,but also the necessary route for major powers moving west and east,or travelling up and down from north to south.Its geographic location is very important.Throughout history,a series of international actions,measures,mechanisms and planning projects have combined,with little success,to attempt to complete regional cooperation around or through Afghanistan.The key issue is the lack of a unified platform for cooperation that considers the needs and interests of all parties.     

The Humanitarian Factors: An ICRC Perspective

More than ten years have passed since the beginning of the Global War on Terror and the consequent launch of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.Today,at the dawn of intemational forces' withdrawal,some substantive improvements are recorded in the field of infrastructure,power,communication,and education.The question is whether this relative progress is sustainable and whether the Afghan population will get the help it will actually need in an unpredictable,but a priori extremely difficult,future.     

An Analysis of the Indian Modi Administration's Policy on the South China Sea Issue

Geographically,India is not a country in the region of the South China Sea,nor is it a country concerned in the issue on a geopolitical level or a US ally in the Asia-Pacific region.It has been very cautious to avoid taking sides in the South China Sea issue.However,since Modi took office in 2014,changes have taken place in the external environment that India faces,in maritime safety strategy,as well as in India's policies toward the US and China.India is becoming increasingly active in the issue of the South China Sea,voicing criticism and taking precautions against China.While India's policy on the South China Sea will not be completely the same as that of the United States and Japan,due to concerns for its own interests in the future,it is quite possible that India will take advantage of the issue of the South China Sea and will adopt more comprehensive ways to get involved in the issue.     

A Comparative Study of China's Foreign Aid

Chinese development assistance is totally different in nature in comparison with the aid offered by the United States and Japan. The U.S. sees its aid as a form of "mercy" to less-developed countries and gives it with numerous conditions attached. Japan seems to mainly use it to pursue commercial interests. By contrast, Chinese aid is, in essence, cooperation and mutual support between developing countries. This fundamental difference helps to explain why Beijing's aid is so different from that of the Western donors.     

Reflections on the Return of the China-Japan Relationship to the Normal Track

The China-Japan relationship has swung between deterioration and improvement in the 21st century while Japanese leaders'cognition and Japanese public opinion remain operative at a deep level.The return of the bilateral relationship in 2018 to the normal development track was aided by Japan's shift toward coordination,China's re-shaped policy,and a boost by the Trump administration.Though the China-Japan relationship will continue improving in the short run,it is unlikely“deterioratiomimprovcment”cycles will end since too many glaring structural contradictions exist.While memories of their intense history and today's territorial issues linger,the fluctuation of Japan*s diplomatic options and weak Japanese public opinion for improved relations with China will continue the same cyclical,but not forward,momentum.     

The SCO Advocates Solving the Afghanistan Issue via Regional Cooperation

The SCO has been closely following developments in Afghanistan and has attached great importance to the affect of the civil war in the country on the region.War and drugs in Afghanistan are directly linked to the spread of the "three forces" in Central Asia and to cross-border crime.The SCO's position on the Afghan issue is as follows:It respects the will of the Afghan people to set up a government that accords with the people's own interests;it supports the Afghan government in realizing economic development with the help of the international community and preserving peace and stability in the country;it stresses the importance of maintaining the leading role of the United Nations in coordinating international assistance to Afghanistan;and it expresses its commitment to enhance cooperation with the Afghan government on combating terrorism,illicit drugs trafficking and organized crime.     

The Potential for Resurgent Clashes among Warlords in Afghanistan

The Location and Development of Warlords in the Reconstruction of Afghanistan Warlordism is not a new issue in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.Since modern times,tribal elders and provincial governors have been independent local powers in Afghanistan,and they have been the main resource and foundation for contemporary warlords in Afghanistan.The Soviet invasion,civil war,the rule of Taliban and the Anti-Terror War all provided opportunities to reinforce the warlords.As Afghanistan undergoes reconstruction,so the warlords' power and status has been strengthened.It has two embodiments.In the first place,the warlords have gained legal positions in the national power center,not only in Afghanistan's provisional government,but also in the later transitional govemment and the Grand National Congress (Loya Jirga).     

LATIN AMERICA

In 1997, many Latin American countries will continue with their constitution-al and legal reforms in the political, administrative and electoral fields, which willbe the main tasks before them in the year. At present, Mexico is in the process ofa transition from a de facto one-party rule to a more democratic and open politicalsystem. The main challenge it faces now is how to complete the transition smooth-ly. And what the public is most concerned about is how the various Mexican politi-     

Strategic Impact of Brexit

Following Brexit, major changes are expected in the UK, the EU, and the relationship between the two, with far-reaching strategic effects on international politics that may develop truly unexpected aspects.Beyond the near-term challenges, the UK is likely to face new developmental opportunities in the long run. The internal power balance in the EU will undergo major changes, possibly leading to progress in diplomacy and defense but with increased internal suspicions, leading to a series of new contradictions. Regardless of its success, Brexit will long trouble the EU. A troubled UK may come to resent the EU, but it is also possible that a well-developed UK will create a development model that is different from those of the EU member states, setting an example for other members considering revaluating their relationship to the EU. The resulting instability may even change it to a free trade area. The UK is an important country, with global influence. Changes in UK-EU relations will have profound geopolitical consequences, and we can expect great changes in UK-American, European-American, UK-Russian, and European-Russian relations and larger relations between East and West. The competition and cooperation among major countries will gain complexity. Due to its close relationships with the UK and the EU, China will also be extensively and profoundly affected.     

Collective Blindness： A Reflection on Predictions by Chinese Academics about the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

During the early part of the 21 st century,Chinese academic circles made judgments and forecasts about U.S.war aims in Afghanistan and the Middle East,the possible process of the wars,and outcomes of postwar reconstruction.After the U.S.-led attack on Afghanistan on October 7,2001,and its military invasion of Iraq on March 20,2003,these big events were analyzed in the context of the international politics of the time.Since these two conflicts are coming to a conclusion,at least in their direct military scope,it is time to look back upon the forecasting framework to see whether alterations and improvements can be made.On December 18,2011,all American combat troops pulled out of Iraq,and the end is in sight for U.S.withdrawal from Afghanistan—either in December 2014,or thereafter.     

ABSTRACTS

The rise of extremist organizations of ＂Islamic State＂ has complicated reasons and background, which has exerted great shock and impact on the situation in the Middle East： leading to the realignment of the political landscape and regional order in the Middle East; resulting in the adjustment of foreign policies and external strategies of the related nations; boosting the religious, power and ideological contentions in the region; and making terrorist operations enter a new and active phase. On the whole, there is a great variable in the future development of the Middle East situation, which though will be largely determined by the following three factors, namely what kind of role the big powers outside the region will play, what kind of influence the powers within the region will exert and whether or not the expansion of ＂Islamic States＂ will be effectively controlled.     

Reform of the United Nations and Transformation of the International System

The reform of the United Nations is closely related with the transformation of the International system. The United Nations has made great success since it started a comprehensive reform in 2005. Such a reform is necessary both for the transition of the largest international organization in the world and transformation of the international system. The United Nations still has a long way to go in the comprehensive reform because of many factors.     

Japan:The Way Ahead

For Japan, relative political stability, economic rebound and stronger diplomaticassertiveness characterized the year 1999. It was also a year when an unmis-takable rightist reorientation took place in the country's internal and external poli-cies. Japan is still at the midst of a historical transition. The year 2000 will witnessthe general elections for the Diet. Thus what impact will they exert on the futurepolicies of Tokyo. Claims concern.     

On Democratic Peace and Democracy Exporting

Democratic Peace and Democracy Exporting are two relatively young theories in the Western IR theory family.The authors believe both are questionable assertions.Democracy,whether as personal consciousness or a political mechanism,can only arise when the productivity of a nation reaches a certain level. Fundamentally,even if we agree with the assertion that democracy leads to peace,the real reason is level of productivity;democracy is only a result.Secondly,the close relationship between democracy and capitalism means that democracy can not be exported randomly.To treat democracy as a universally adaptable commodity exportable to any nation without considering the level of productivity can hardly be successful;in fact,it may be harmful to some nations.     

Regional Cooperation or Competition in Afghanistan: Challenges for the Future

Afghanistan has become synonymous with the spread of fundamentalism (the Taliban),terrorism (al-Qaeda) and rampant opium production.It is rare to hear about any positive developments or about Afghanistan's potential without some sort of caveat.However,while it is true that many problems persist,the situation in Afghanistan has improved in a number of areas.Nevertheless,the situation is still in flux and much needs to be improved,not least in the economic field,before it can be claimed that Afghanistan has truly set itself on a new course.1 In this endeavor there is no doubt that international and-perhaps even more soregional assistance is needed.     

My Opinion of the Current World Security

What the current world is most concerned about is the situation of security.Without security,it is not to mention economic construction,nor peaceful development,nor people living and working in peace and contentment.Allcountries in the world are no exception in this regard.This article will deal briefly with the questions of whether the cur-rent world is secure,where the threats to the world security come from and how these threats are coped with.I.The current world is secure on the whole but…     

India-Afghanistan Relations in the Post 2014 Scenario in Afghanistan

Introduction Important developments have taken place in Afghanistan.On May 1,2012,U.S.President Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA),which signaling the end of U.S.combat role in Afghanistan after 2014 and providing the outline of U.S.-Afghanistan ties in the post-2014 period.According to the summary of the SPA provided by the White House,the U.S.will not be seeking permanent military bases in Afghanistan but will continue to provide security assistance to the country.The U.S.has also designated Afghanistan as a major non-NATO ally.It is understood that the U.S.may maintain some troops in the country to train and equip the Afghan security forces and help them in combating A1 Qaeda remnants.     

Shifts in Leadership Will Create New Uncertainties in Northeast Asia

2012 is a year of elections throughout the world and in Northeast Asian countries in particular marks a year of shifts in leadership. Will the new leaders change previous policies towards the Korean Peninsula?How extensive will these adjustments be and in what direction will they lead? Such questions point to major changes in 2012.