Two Decades of Change: A Ranking of Key Issues Affecting Intergovernmental Relations

This article describes the results of a 1981 survey of 1,000randomly selected scholars of American government and politicswho were asked to rank the most significant intergovernmentalevents and trends of the past twenty years. Responses were receivedfrom almost 40 percent of these scholars; no significant returnbiases were detected. These scholars ranked civil rights andvoting rights acts as the most significant events of these decades.General Revenue Sharing and the reapportionment cases were rankedsecond and third in importance. The increased flow of federaldollars to states and local governments was ranked the mostimportant trend affecting intergovernmental relations, followedby the increased public disaffection with government and thegrowing dependence of local governments on state and federalaid. The Vietnam War and the inflationary spiral it initiatedwas ranked as the most significant social event affecting thecourse of intergovernmental relations, followed closely by theenergy crisis and the beginnings of the "Great Society." Thearticle also examines the effects of party identification, age,year of degree, government experience, region, and city sizeon scholarly attitudes toward these events and trends. Whilethe overall rankings were not dramatically altered, partisanship,region, and city size all were factors found to be noticeablyrelated to scholarly rankings of these important events andtrends.     

A Jurisdiction-Based Model of Intergovernmental Management in U.S. Cities

Variations in levels of intergovernmental activity are explainedin terms other than standard "top-down" or "bottom-up" federalmanagement perspectives. Data from 237 cities on intergovernmentalmanagement by local managers of economic development policyindicate that differences are determined by the degree to whichmanagers assume a more mutually interactive approach throughbargaining, strategic activity, local adjustment, and otherinternal actions. The jurisdiction-based model is consistentwith growing diversity in the federal system and with changingmodels of public management.     

Internet Taxation and U.S. Intergovernmental Relations: From Quill to the Present

One of the most contentious issues involving federal, state,and local relations today is Internet taxation. Internet taxationis a significant battleground because it involves issues ofgreat import to federalism, including state and local autonomyand revenue adequacy. Since the U.S. Supreme Court's 1992 decisionin Quill v. North Dakota, the taxability of online transactionshas been governed by the court's physical presence nexus rule.This nexus rule has recently been called into question by variousorganizations, corporations, and elected officials. Proposalsto alter the nexus rule abound from various sources. This articleexamines the roles played by these various actors in the Internettaxation debate and explores the potential implications of changesto the nexus for federalism and intergovernmental relations.     

Asymmetric Effects of Intergovernmental Grants: Analysis and Implications for U.S. Welfare Policy

Theories of federal grants to states and localities suggestthat these grants have a stimulative effect on spending, causingrecipient governments to expand and contract programs alongwith changes in the grants. However, policymakers may responddifferently to grant decreases than to grant increases becausethey face political and bureaucratic pressures to expand programs.These asymmetric reactions may depend on specific politicalstructures. Pooled time-series regressions of data from theAid to Families with Dependent Children program across 46 statesfrom 1965 to 1994 demonstrate state government responses togrant changes. Bureaucratic pressures and proposals lead statesto expand their welfare benefits upon increases in federal grants,but not to contract them upon decreases in federal grants. Withregard to the 1996 welfare reforms, this study indicates thatthe switch to block grants will lead to little or no state reductionin welfare payments.     

Public Opinion on U.S. Federal and Intergovernmental Issues in 2006: Continuity and Change

A 2006 trend survey found that Americans most often select localgovernment as giving them the most for their money, followedby the federal and state governments. African Americans aremost supportive of the federal government as giving them themost for their money; Hispanics are most supportive of localgovernment. As in many previous years, the local property taxwas viewed as the worst tax, followed by the federal incometax, state sales tax, and state income tax. Americans displayedreduced trust and confidence in the federal government; however,trust in all three spheres of government—federal, state,and local—dropped between 2004 and 2006, possibly reflectiveof the poor response of all governments to Hurricane Katrina.Analysis of surveys since 1972 reveals that there has been along-term decline in the public's support for the federal governmentand a corresponding increase in support of state and especiallylocal governments.     

Healthtown, U.S.A

The landscape of health care is about to change. Under the Clinton proposal every American will choose one of three basic kinds of health plan--HMO, fee-for-service or a combination. The big questions are how much you will pay and how you will choose your doctors. Lost already? Here's a tour of Healthtown, U.S.A.     

Modernization among the U.S. States: Change and Continuity from 1960 to 1990

This research updates and extends John Crittenden's effort toidentify the dimensions of modernization among the U.S. states.The objective is to determine the degree of continuity or changein the structure of modernization between 1960 and 1990. Weundertake a principal-axis factor analysis of the same thirty-threevariables Crittenden employed in his analysis of state modernization.In addition to comparing the results of factor analyses forthe two periods, we offer an index of state modernization for1990. The outcome of the 1990 factor analysis parallels thestructure identified for the earlier period. Four primary factorsemerge-metro-urbanism: Migratory Pull, Political Participation(Integrative Message Exchange for 1960), and Decentralization(new for 1990). The overall index of state modernization showsNew York, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Coloradoas the most developed states.     

The State of U.S. Federalism, 1999-2000

Federalism has rarely been a key national campaign issue, andthe presidential campaign of 2000 was no exception. Althoughthe candidates talked of a key state-local issue—education—itwas in the context of the popular concern over the quality ofschools, rather than federalism issues of governmental responsibilityfor education. However, one aspect of federalism was evidentin the presidential campaign. The first president of the newmillennium may get a chance to name at least one U.S. SupremeCourt justice. Given the slim 5–4 majorities on most federalismcases, the appointment or appointments could be pivotal. Meanwhile,in the Congress and state Capitols, technology and globalizationissues forced a rethinking of traditional intergovernmentalfiscal and regulatory functions.     

Revenue allocation and the stability of the Nigerian Federation 1960-1980

Since 1960 a succession of different formulae have been used to allocate revenue under Nigeria's constitutions. This article reviews the formulae used and suggests ways in which they have contributed to the stability of the federation. The author then argues that in the 1980's the revenue allocation system should take more account of the need to reduce economic and social disparities in the different geographical areas of the country and so safeguard in the longer term the political stability of this federation.     

U.S. SOUTH AFRICA POLICY IN THE 1980s: CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT AND BEYOND

In this article no attempt is made to defend the Reagan administration's six-year-old policy of constructive engagement toward the Republic of South Africa, for to all but a few diehards the policy is indefensible. Instead, my response to Beres contains three components. First, I take issue with his dismissal of constructive engagement as no more than a ruse by which "to make apartheid palatable" to the American people, and argue that the purpose of the policy was to enable the Reagan administration to take credit for achieving a Namibia independence settlement. Second, I show that Beres' plea for popular opposition to an unjust policy comes too late, for a large number of Americans, during the past two years in particular, have been doing his bidding. Finally, I conclude with an assessment of the nature of the policy debate over South Africa that such popularity has prompted, in which direction U.S. South Africa policy now appears headed, and what issues, if any, remain to be resolved.     

The State of U.S. Federalism: 1998-1999

In 1998–1999, changing federalism in the United Statesmeant that states have greater discretion in some areas of socialpolicy while Congress has asserted greater influence over issuesof culture and crime. Despite the rhetoric about decisions beingbest made by states and localities, Congress continues to takeon new areas, such as health privacy. In the meantime, the U.S.Supreme Court's sustained focus on issues of federalism intensified,with states' rights continuing to receive emphasis, even thoughthe Court upheld federal power in selected cases and refusedto sanction state actions in others.     

The State of U.S. Federalism, 2000-2001: Continuity in Crisis

Despite the 2000 presidential-election crisis, basic continuityprevailed in American federalism, including survival of theelectoral college and furtherance of the more recent shift offederal policymaking from places to persons during today's eraof coercive or regulatory federalism. The year revealed theenduring salience of political parties and the prominent roleof interest groups in the politics of federalism, as well asthe ways in which the federal system shapes, and is shaped by,policy debates. The U.S. Supreme Court continued its state-friendlydecision-making while Congress continued to preempt state authority,attach new conditions to federal aid, federalize criminal law,and nationalize power even while giving state and local governmentsmore administrative discretion. The year also illustrated thedeclining impact of federal aid on state-local revenues comparedto the increasing fiscal impact of the federal government'ssubstantive, monetary, and fiscal policies.     

Avoidance or Engagement? Issue Convergence in U.S. Presidential Campaigns, 1960–2000

A widely noted and oft-decried characteristic of campaigns in the United States is the tendency of the competing sides to talk past each other—to avoid engaging with one another on the same issues. We bring a massive database on statements by the major-party presidential candidates and other campaign spokespersons in the 1960 through 2000 elections to bear on the question of issue convergence. Far from the exception, a high degree of similarity in the issue emphases of the two sides appears to have been the norm in these campaigns. This result suggests the need to rethink some influential empirical, formal, and normative perspectives on campaigns.     

The distribution of annual and long-run U.S. earnings, 1981-2004

Numerous authors have presented evidence of increased dispersion in the distribution of annual earnings in the United States from the late 1970s through 2004 or later. However, the dispersion of long-run earnings measured over many years has received relatively little attention because of the limited availability of appropriate data. This article uses the Social Security Administration's Continuous Work History Sample, which documents the earnings histories of 3.3 million workers, to examine changes in both the annual and the long-run distributions of earnings during 1981-2004 for men and women. For men, the results indicate an increase in long-run earnings inequality of roughly the same magnitude as the trend seen in annual earnings dispersion, but there has been very little increase in the dispersion of long-run earnings among women. If calculations are restricted to a sample of women who work every year of the observation period, a trend of increased earnings dispersion emerges, but much less so than that observed for men.     

The decline in the number of school districts in the U.S.: 1950–1980

Between 1950 and 1980 the number of school districts fell from 83,642 to 15,987. Data for the fifty states for 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 are used to identify the factors that contributed to this decline. The focus is on the tradeoff between cost savings through scale economies (a few large districts) and a diverse population's demand for choice in public schooling (many small districts). We find that much of the decline in the number of school districts has resulted from: 1) the decline in the farm population and increase in population density, which has made it easier to take advantage of scale economies; 2) the growing importance of state aid, which reduces quality variation among districts within a state; and 3) the increase in the fraction of teachers that belong to the National Education Association teacher's union, which may reflect increased political influence used to lower the costs of organizing. Several states have laws that require school district and county (or state) boundaries to coincide. In the last section of the paper we estimate the costs of these laws. First, we compare the predicted number of districts, using the regression results in the earlier section of the paper, to the actual number in these states. Then we estimate a demand equation that is used to generate the dollar amount of the cost due to diminished interjurisdictional competition.     

Dimensions of Federalism In U.S. Senate Voting, 1981-1982

The concept of federalism is important in political science;yet it has proven difficult to clarify and to use in empiricalanalyses of American political institutions. This analysis demonstratesthat the congressional federalism scores reported in Publiusare not unidimensional and that a better measure of federalismcan result in improved explanatory power of empirical analysisof the determinants of congressional attitudes toward federalism.A procedure for constructing a better measure of federalismis suggested.     

Needed: A smaller and very different U.S. military

Conclusion How should the Pentagon decide those missions that it will retain in house? Those missions for which it should seek strategic alliances? Those new missions that it will actively seek to develop a competency in? Or those missions that require service competition because they are viewed as critical? Or those missions that have acquired redundancy due to service poaching, and thus can prudently be the target of reductions?The answers to these questions very much depend on the leadership's developing a view of the long-term future that is very different from the past. For example, will the United States be in the business of maintaining stability in troubled Third World regions? If so, what kind of capabilities, what kind of missions, does it see as necessary to conduct effective operations in these conflicts? What can the U.S. military count on from its strategic partnerships with other nations? What competing roles will the U.S. military be asked to play? What resources are available?These are fundamental, first-order questions. But they must all be answered - a credible vision of the business must be established - before restructuring can proceed in a productive manner. This does not imply a definitive prediction of the future; rather, it involves recognizing that the United States is in a period of relatively low danger, high uncertainty and dynamic change. For that reason the defense establishment should restructure to be more flexible, innovative and adaptive. A primary goal should be to exploit rapidly advancing technologies, while meeting (or preferably forestalling) the greatest and most likely challenges to national security. In summary, developing a credible vision of the future security environment, and acting upon it, is essential if the U.S. defense establishment is to avoid the pitfalls of the interwar French military and the IBM of the 1980s, dominant organizations that restructured to be more efficient in a competitive environment that was rapidly passing into history.     

Economic performance and U.S. Senate elections: A comment

This paper investigates the issue of economic performance and U.S. Senate elections analyzed by Bennett and Wiseman (1991) in a work published in this journal. Our study analyzes the electoral margins and election outcomes of U.S. Senate elections using state-level data involving only incumbents up for reelection in the 1976–1990 period (212 elections). The ordinary least squares and logit estimation results suggest that the effects of economic performance variables on incumbent senatorial elections are in general overshadowed by other factors known to be important in determining electoral margins and outcomes. In addition, the empirical results of the entire model are in general consistent with prior findings noted in the public choice and political science literature concerning the analysis of U.S. Senate elections. Therefore, we suggest that the findings raised in our study provide enough theoretical and empirical evidence to raise sufficient doubt regarding the robustness of the results suggested by Bennett and Wiseman (1991), and thus call upon other researchers to study further the relationship between economic performance and voting behavior in U.S. Senate elections.