Extending the Study of Continuity and Change: Gender Differences in the Linkage Between Adolescent and Adult Offending

Recently, Paternoster etal. used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a longitudinal study of 411 South London boys mostly born in 1953, to investigate the linkage between adolescent and adult offending and found that variations in adult offending were consistent with a random process after conditioning on adolescent offending. In this paper, we test the robustness of this early study across data sources and genders. Here, we use data from the Dunedin New Zealand 1972 birth cohort study to replicate previous findings regarding stability and change in criminal offending between the adolescent and adult years. In particular, our interest centers on the stochastic properties of the adolescent and adult conviction distribution in the cohort and whether the structure of this distribution is similar for males and females. This replication and extension of prior work is especially important since criminologists have little understanding of the pattern of female adolescent offending or how the patterns are linked to adult offending for women. The analysis reveals that variation in adult offending after conditioning on adolescent offending is consistent with a random (Poisson) process. Furthermore, this pattern is evident for both the males and the females in the Dunedin New Zealand 1972 birth cohort.     

Personal Criminal Victimization in the United States: Fixed and Random Effects of Individual and Household Characteristics

The present research is concerned with multilevel modeling of personalvictimization rates. Data from the 1994 National Crime Victimization Surveyare employed. Following the routine activities and lifestyle victimizationtheory, individuals' profile and lifestyle as well as characteristics oftheir household comprise the set of explanatory variables. The results ofestimated multilevel negative binomial models, which explicitly disentanglethe unexplained heterogeneity between individuals and between households,are discussed. The estimated random effects of household characteristicsshow that the unexplained heterogeneity for the average number of personalcrimes differs across household types. Further, the individual covariateswith between households random effects become less influential the more thebase personal crime rates are high.     

Self-Control,Violent Offending,and Homicide Victimization: Assessing the General Theory of Crime

Criminologists have long recognized that offending and victimization share common ground. Using Gottfredson and Hirschis general theory of crime, with its emphasis on self-control as a theoretical backdrop, we examine the extent to which self-control is related to both violent offending and homicide victimization. To examine this issue, we use 5-year post-parole data on violent offending and homicide victimization from a sample of parolees from the California Youth Authority. Using rare-events logistic regression models, results indicate that self-control is related to each outcome, but that other risk factors are also uniquely related to each outcome. The implications of this study for theory and future research are addressed.To whom correspondence should be addressed: Department of Criminology, Law and Society, University of Florida, P.O. Box 115950, 201 Walker Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611-5950; Phone: +1-352-392-1025, ext. 213; E-mail: apiquero@ufl.edu     

Desistance as a Developmental Process: A Comparison of Static and Dynamic Approaches

New research in the field of developmental criminology has led researchers to reconceptualize desistance as a behavioral process that unfolds over the life course. This approach puts more emphasis on the pathways by which people reach the state of non-offending, and less emphasis on the state of non-offending itself. This reconceptualization has implications for how we measure desistance in longi-tudinal data. In this paper, we suggest that the traditional measurement approach is inconsistent with this view, and we present an alternative measurement approach based on the premises of developmental criminology. Although not perfect, we argue that the dynamic measure better describes the key elements of the process of desistance. Both approaches are implemented using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, a longitudinal study of youthful offenders. We demon-strate that the two approaches identify different people as desistors. Moreover, we argue that the dynamic definition of desistance has more promise for providing insight into the changes that are the behavioral focus of the desistance process.     

中国内地与港澳台刑事证据制度比较论

证据制度是指法律规定的关于在诉讼中规范证据资格、证据收集和审查判断，以及司法证明活动的规则体系。证据制度是内地诉讼制度中亟待完善的部分。我国的香港、澳门特别行政区及台湾在法律的继承和发展过程中分别秉承英美法系当事人主义、大陆法系职权主义与混合折衷主义诉讼制度之精华，形成了各具特色且较为完善的刑事证据制度。对两岸四地的若干刑事证据规则和刑事证据证明制度进行比较分析，为内地刑事证据制度的改革与完善提供了重要思路。     

刑法国际化:内涵·成因及其表现

刑法国际化就是指刑法发展进程中各国相互吸收、彼此渗透、趋于接近、共同前进的趋势 ,这一趋势有其深刻的经济、社会、法律和其他方面的原因。并且 ,刑法国际化的趋势在我国现行刑法典中已有所体现。     

Examining Prosecutorial Discretion in Federal Criminal Cases: Legal and Extra-Legal Determinants of Declination and Charge Change Decisions

Abstract

From 2000 to 2010, the federal criminal caseload increased roughly 50% with a large portion of this increase attributed to the rise in immigration prosecutions. These changes coupled with recent Supreme Court decisions rendering the guidelines advisory have renewed calls for research examining prosecutorial discretion, particularly with respect to the influence of legal and extralegal factors on charging and bargaining decisions. This study utilizes data (2002–2010) from the Federal Justice Statistics Program database housed within the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD). More specifically, the current research examines prosecutorial decisions to decline to charge federal arrestees and to make any changes to the charge from the arresting offense. Results from the multilevel, multivariate models reveal that both extra-legal and legal factors were influential of these decisions. Disaggregated models also revealed considerable variation across different offense types. Finally, districts with higher caseloads had lower odds of a prosecutorial declination and charge change.     

刑事侦查教学中讲授、讨论和模拟的有机结合

刑事侦查学是一门实践性强的应用学科。教学实践中,讲授、案例讨论和模拟侦查是其教学过程中的三个基本环节。如何使这三种教学方法充分发挥其作用,有机结合在一起,为实现教学目的服务,这是教师面临的共同问题。本文作者根据多年来教学实践的探索,就这三种教学方法的相互结合问题做了探讨。     

比较与借鉴：刑事诉讼价值权衡的方法论基础

刑事诉讼价值权衡,就是由裁判者依据一定程序和方法对冲突的利益确定其轻重而进行的衡量与选择活动。中国刑事诉讼的现代化之路,即是一部价值权衡的曲折史。在方法论层面,比较与借鉴法学方法论以及两大法系中经验,中国刑事诉讼法可确立“综合式利益衡平模式”,融合“静态位阶方法”和“动态衡平方法”;同时,作为保障,需要克服部门利益化、职业利益化的偏狭心态,完善刑事诉讼法立法艺术,培植刑事诉讼“法权感”,力求利益均衡化、最大化。     

宪法的稳定性与稳定性的宪法——以中美宪法文本的比较为视角

宪法的稳定性既是维持宪政秩序有效运行的基础,也是宪法作为根本法的原则性和作为法律的规范性的具体要求。美国宪法具有较强的特定性,它是通过民众对宪法精神的敬畏与信仰,以及宪法文本的独特品质与最高法院的宪法解释等途径实现的。探索《美国宪法》稳定性的深层背景,检讨我国《宪法》文本的缺失与不足,对于我们如何处理宪法的稳定性与适应性的关系,完善我国的宪法解释与宪法修改制度,都具有十分重要的借鉴意义。     

Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

Economic Development,Change of Age Distribution,and Stream Analogy of Homicide and Suicide: A Cross-National Assessment

The current study tests the stream analogy of lethal violence, proposed by Unnithan et al. on a large sample of 124 nations. Spatial econometric regression models confirm that economic development decreases homicide rate and increases suicide–homicide ratio (SHR). The SHR developed by Unnithan et al. accounts for the impact of economic development better than original measure of suicide rate. The most important finding of the current investigation is that the increase in the population size of the elderly, consequent to economic development, is partially responsible for elevated suicide rates and SHRs.     

The European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics: A New Tool in Assessing Crime and Policy Issues in Comparative and Empirical Perspective

Theories which suggest a relationship between crime or criminal justice variables on the one hand, and variables related to criminal justice policies on the other hand, cannot be tested without reference to historic or comparative data. Since international comparisons offer the most powerful test of such theories, policy-related research in Europe has suffered, so far, from a lack of valid comparative data. Whether crime data from different countries are comparable, has always been subject to controversies. In the case of the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice, a network of specialists was established under the auspices of the Council of Europe in order to assess the validity of the data. Although some problems in cross-country level comparisons could not be settled, the European Sourcebook offers comparative data on 36 Member States of the Council of Europe on a variety of subjects (offences and offenders known to the police; prosecution, convictions, sentences, and corrections; survey data; and indications on manpower and budgets of police forces, prosecutors, and corrections).     

房地产契证制度与清末社会稳定——以南京地区房地产契证为范例的分析

房地产契证制度是中国一项传统的房地产法律规范制度,至清末已发展得相当完善。房地产契证不仅记录房地产交易的具体内容,记载政府的法律规制情况和对房地产的实际管理状况,也反映了社会的发展状况。在清末社会的动荡变革中,财产关系相对稳定,房地产交易能够正常进行,社会生活得以正常延续,一定程度上得益于房地产契证制度在保障交易安全、维护财产秩序方面的作用。通过颇具特色的清末南京地区房地产契证制度,研究清代房地产契证与房地产法律规制的实际作用,研究清末完善的契证制度在保护个人财产、维护产权人的合法权益、稳定基层管理秩序、保护基层社会老百姓的生存权利方面所发挥的积极作用。     

J.M.还是J.D.?——中、日、美复合型法律人才培养制度比较

传统上,中、日两国法学教育属于综合法律素质养成型教育类型,并不与法律职业直接相联系。但自上个世纪九十年代以来,两国出现了借鉴美国法学院制度,探索建立法律实务教育模式的新动向。论文对法律硕士专业学位(J.M.)教育、日本的法科大学院(J.D.)、以及美国的法学院制度(J.D.)进行了比较观察。对中日两国新型法学教育制度形成与效果的关系作了分析,对法学院制度形成的路径、方式和评价机制问题作了探讨。作者认为,制度形成的关键不在于形而上的可行性讨论,根本性问题是对制度要素的观察、分析以及摄入,构成要素的摄取决定了制度的效果和命运。