下一任期,谁来掌舵"韩国号"?——韩国总统大选进入倒计时

2007年12月19日,韩国将举行第17届总统选举.截至11月26日候选人登记截止日,共有12人正式注册参选,选战进入倒计时,竞争日益激烈.在目前各候选人中,大国家党候选人李明博保持领先,无党派候选人李会昌紧随其后,大统合民主新党候选人郑东泳位列第三,若不发生大的意外,新一届韩国总统将从此三人中诞生.     

Autocracy, Elections, and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

Authoritarian regimes often use fiscal policy to reward political supporters and to punish political opponents. In many authoritarian regimes with political institutions like parties, legislatures, and elections, elections become a focal point for budget expenditures and the distribution of government patronage. A time-series analysis of Malaysian fiscal expenditures from 1967 to 1997 shows that the ruling coalition systematically increases federal government spending before elections. In addition to marshalling private resources to distribute patronage, the Malaysian government manipulates the government’s official position. These findings have important implications for the growing literature on political institutions under autocratic regimes and the politics of patronage and redistribution in the developing world. They also suggest a new empirical domain for existing theories of political business cycles.     

Presidential Leadership in a Fractured State: Capacity,Autonomy, and the American State

Abstract

This paper sets out a conceptual framework for studying the conditions under which presidential leadership in the United States can be thought of as autonomous. Unlike others, who view executive institutions as reflections of conflicts between dominant societal forces, I examine the case of the American presidency and focus on organizational–institutional considerations. Specifically, I focus on the process of institutionalization as a means of building capacity, which I argue, in contrast to others, is a necessary condition for autonomy. Additionally, Iargue that work on the presidency, and the American state in general, suffers from a level of analysis problem, which obscures opportunities for identifying and analyzing autonomous presidential leadership. I conclude with thoughts for a research agenda.     

Delivering Political Power to Language Minorities: Voting,Elections, and the Rights of Language Minorities

This article examines the significance of emerging international interdependency and how it may influence the teaching of Public Affairs/Administration (PA) in the next decade. Postwar demand for international courses is described along with a different set of contemporary factors that is internationalizing traditionally domestic sectors of society. The growing importance of policy issues such as international trade and economic competition, immigration, and terrorism is examined along with the possible effect on education. The potential roles of public administrators are also outlined and recommendations are made for ways in which the PA community can assess its response to an internationalized policy environment.     

Oil,Coalitions, and Regime Durability: the Origins and Persistence of Popular Rentierism in Kuwait

While the canonical literature on oil wealth suggests that hydrocarbon windfalls encourage repressive despotism, Kuwait provides a case of an oil-rich autocracy governing instead through popular rentierism—that is, through a broad coalition of social forces, one that furnishes enduring loyalty from below while constraining abuses of state power from above. This paper provides a theoretically guided explanation for this exceptional outcome. I argue that the Kuwaiti regime’s coalitional bargains originated in the pre-oil era, when domestic opposition and geopolitical constrictions compelled it to forge new social alliances at the dawn of modern statehood. This inclusionary strategy mediated the subsequent effect of oil rents, which the regime used to institutionalize its mass base with costly material and symbolic side payments. Such popular incorporation bound large constituent classes to the regime’s survival, precluding the need for widespread repression. After 50 years, these coalitional bargains have also proven remarkably resilient, as social actors have continued to endorse the autocratic leadership despite economic crisis and wartime defeat.     

Engineering Elections: The Experiences of Women in Panchayati Raj in Karnataka, India

Engineering elections through gender quotas is a crucial component of strategies that seek to empower women through increased participation in the political system. In the south Indian state of Karnataka, this experiment has seen mixed results: it has made women more visible, decreased levels of corruption in Panchayati Raj institutions, and increased self-efficiency of women representatives. It is more difficult, however, to claim a substantive change in institutional priorities and state accountability. As important is the fact that nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) often provide significant training and support in successful cases. Engineering elections thus highlights possibilities for change through increased participation by women.     

Presidential succession,economic crisis,and populist resurgence in Brazil

Latin American populism has been characterized as a time-bound phenomenon, part of the political revolution against the old agricultural oligarchy and accompanying import-substitution industrialization. It has been asserted that populism died with the “exhaustion” of the “easy phase” of import-substitution, and that bureaucratic authoritarian regimes were predicated on that demise. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Peru are regularly cited as evidence. This article examines these definitional premises in light of the apparent resurgence of populist politics in the democratic transition in Brazil. It is argued that populism is not a pre-1964 anachronism, but is predictably appealing in the 1980s. Distinctions among populistappeals, contention for power, andsuccessful populist order suggest that populism and its leaders offer a very limited alternative to the future of Brazilian politics. Gamaliel Perruci, Jr., a native Brazilian, is a doctoral student in political science at the University of Florida. He is currently conducting research on Brazilian industrial and trade policy. Steven E. Sanderson is professor of political science at the University of Florida. His most recent book isThe Transformation of Mexican Agriculture: International Structure and the Politics of Rural Change (Princeton University Press, 1986). He is currently completing a book entitledThe Politics of Trade in Latin American Development.     

2006年匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克议会选举与左翼政党的发展

在2006年议会选举中,匈牙利和捷克延续了以往的左翼政党格局,斯洛伐克的政党格局则发生了很大变化;同时,三国左翼政党或胜或输,表现出不同的起落轨迹.左翼政党格局和地位的变化与其所在国家的政治发展、经济形势、对外关系乃至各党自身的条件和努力密切相关.