东盟五国制造业贸易竞争力的变迁与分析

本文运用贸易竞争力指数对东盟五国制造业在1996-2006年间的出口竞争力进行了实证测度, 并且也相应地测度了东盟各国长期稳定地处于比较优势、比较劣势的产业,以及随着时间的推移比较优势和比较劣势互相转换的产业.最后,文章对实证结果作了分析.     

中国和东盟五国服务贸易竞争力比较分析

随着<中国-东盟自由贸易区服务贸易协议>的实施,中国和东盟各国将逐步减少服务业准入限制,扩大服务部门的对外开放.因各成员国国服务贸易竞争力存在差异,该进程对各国影响必利弊互现.因此,各成员国应根据本国服务贸易竞争力现状,确定服务业自由化进程,以顺利实施<协议>.鉴于此,本文通过比较分析中国和东盟五国服务贸易国际竞争力及其影响因素,为中国具体实施该<协议>和进行后续谈判提供政策建议.     

基于PLS模型的中日服务贸易竞争力比较研究

基于2000年—2014年时间序列数据,利用NRCA指数分析了中日服务贸易竞争力情况,并通过PLS模型研究了中日服务贸易竞争力的影响因素。结果显示,中日服务贸易在总量、结构上有相似之处,但在服务贸易竞争力及其影响因素上有显著差异,且日本服务贸易总体竞争力强于中国。因此,借鉴日本服务贸易发展策略,对中国有重要意义。     

中日韩三国纺织服装品在东盟市场竞争力的实证研究

本文从市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显示性比较优势指数和出口产品相似度指数等4个不同视角出发,全面考察了2000-2008年期间中日韩3国纺织服装品在东盟市场竞争力的大小.实证结果表明,近年来我国纺织服装品在东盟市场的竞争力不断上升,同日韩两国相比,我国纺织服装品的竞争优势非常明显.本文的研究可为我国纺织行业进一步开拓东盟市场提供借鉴.     

韩国在全球价值链中的位置及其演变——基于WWZ增加值贸易分解法

基于WIOD数据库,对韩国增加值贸易进行测度并分解发现,2000年以来,韩国的进出口贸易在向价值链上游攀升,已从对美国的高依赖逐渐转变为对中国的高依赖;各国(地区)在韩国出口中的相对贡献程度发生了变化。排前三位的贸易伙伴依次为美国、澳大利亚、中国,中国对韩国出口的贡献指数与美国的差距越来越小,中国对韩国出口的贡献越来越大,德国和日本对韩国的相对出口贡献指数在缓慢下降,美国与澳大利亚的指数变化较为波折。韩国出口在全球价值链的位置和参与程度不同产业体现出不同的特点,最终产品的出口占比下降,中间产品的出口占比增加,全球价值链在逐渐拉长,参与全球价值链生产的程度逐年提高;制造业的参与程度要大于初级产品、资源产品,以及服务业。     

中国与印度国际竞争力的比较与解释

本文首先对中印两国经济社会总体发展状况进行了比较,认为无论从经济指标还是从社会指标考察,中国均比印度处于更高的发展阶段。对两国制造业国际竞争力的分析比较表明,中国制造业的国际竞争力总体上强于印度。对两国服务业国际竞争力的研究表明:其一,在大多数年份,印度服务业的综合国际竞争力强于中国;其二,中国服务业国际竞争力的提升主要来源于竞争优势。虽然中国服务业综合竞争力弱于印度,但实际中国服务业的竞争优势始终强于印度,只是由于中国制造业发展速度更快,才使得中国服务业的比较优势弱于印度。文章最后从劳动力素质、基础设施、政府作用、社会异质性、宗教文化、海外侨民六个方面分析了中印之间竞争力存在差异的原因。     

中日贸易对日本经济增长贡献率的实证分析

当前的中日关系就总体而言处于一种政冷经热的状态中,但是两国的经济联系日益密切,双方均成为了彼此重要的贸易伙伴.作为亚洲特别是东亚地区的两个大国,中日关系的变化将对这个区域的政治、经济形势带来巨大的影响.本文通过考察中日贸易对日本GDP增长的贡献率发现,中日贸易与日本的经济增长有很强的正相关性.具体来讲,虽然有较大的起伏,但是日本对华进口、出口增长对其GDP增长的贡献度和贡献率是稳步攀升.本文还从贡献度和贡献率的变化轨迹角度,将中日贸易对日本经济增长的关系大致分为三个阶段,分别是初级阶段、稳定依赖关系的形成阶段和依赖关系加深的阶段.     

新时期日本人口老龄化的国际比较研究

日本是当今世界人口老龄化程度最高的国家,通过对日本人口老龄化现状及趋势,日本人口老龄化的决定因素及其人口学影响,日本人口老龄化特点的国际比较研究,详细介绍了日本人口老龄化的发展及特点,为充分了解日本的人口老龄化状况提供了科学翔实的依据。     

中国与东盟的贸易变迁:1992—2012

过去20年,中国和东盟间的贸易增长很快,贸易结构也发生了很多变化。本文主要考察这一时期双边贸易的变化,对其中的贸易构成、贸易强度、行业内贸易、贸易互补和贸易竞争等问题进行了研究。     

Seeking Domestic Approval: Determinants of Ratification Duration in International Trade

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated rapidly since the early 1990s. The ratification of these agreements matters both economically by rendering commitments legally enforceable for outward‐oriented industries and politically by revealing the domestic‐ and international‐level factors which delay or accelerate the entry into force of a PTA. This research note investigates the institutional design and domestic political determinants of the ratification duration for 270 PTAs concluded in the post‐1990 period. The Weibull survival analysis yields two main results: First, neither domestic political constraints measured through veto players nor PTA depth affect ratification spells. Second, ratification processes become more protracted in the presence of stringent formal domestic ratification requirements as well as with a higher number of partner states. These findings suggest that trade negotiators factor in the shadow of ratification in the bargaining phase but still remain subject to formal ratification hurdles and PTA membership dynamics.     

Cut Loose in the Caribbean: Neoliberalism and the Demise of the Commonwealth Sugar Trade

This article focuses on the way the Anglophone Caribbean succumbed to the overhaul of the European Union sugar trade and how these countries have attempted to restructure their economies in its wake. We show how the protagonists of reform gave a sense of inevitability to the demise of the Commonwealth trade system and conveyed (unrealistic) strategies for how this should be managed for the benefit of the Caribbean. In this way we detail the hegemony of neoliberalism in contemporary trade politics and the need for alternative strategies for rural development in the Caribbean region.     

Participation of African member states in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) multilateral trading system

Abstract

The core purpose and goals of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are to enhance growth by allowing each country to trade freely according to its comparative advantage. The other stated main objectives of the WTO are: raising standards of living; providing full employment; reduction of tariffs and non‐tariff barriers; and the elimination of discriminatory treatment. According to the current orthodox economic view, trade openness is essential for growth: countries that liberalise their imports and orientate production towards exports are assumed to have faster growth than those that do not, and the faster the rate of opening, the greater will the prospect be for development. The emphasis on trade liberalisation and export orientation in the past ten years following the adoption of the Uruguay Round has led to phenomenal growth in world merchandise trade, which has grown consistently faster than output. The orthodox view approach is today expanded and modified with the view that liberalisation measures are not sufficient by themselves and should be accompanied by other factors such as sound macroeconomic policies, good governance and a modern infrastructure. Africa's dependence on primary commodities as a source of export earnings has meant that it is vulnerable to weather conditions, market vagaries, and price volatility, arising mainly from supply shock and the secular decline in real commodity prices. The attendant terms of trade losses have exacted heavy costs in terms of incomes, indebtedness, investment, poverty and development. Therefore, the basic approach that liberalisation has a direct link to economic growth and should be undertaken as fast as possible is being questioned and has been challenged by empirical studies in recent years. The relevant studies have shown that there is a lack of relationship between the degree of trade liberalisation and the rate of growth. The emerging paradigm accepts that there are possible costs, as well as potential benefits of trade liberalisation to a particular developing country, depending on the conditions in that country, and the type of liberalisation undertaken. The other impediments and weaknesses identified as affecting effective, efficient and economical participation of African members in the WTO include rapid liberalisation as potential source of fiscal instability; general absence of peace, security and democracy; globalisation and lack of competitive ability; supply‐side constraints; high export concentration ratio; problems of implementation; exclusion and/or marginalisation from knowledge‐based economy; and lack of capacity. The Doha Development Round was initiated to attend to, and address, these problems, and it is still too early to predict the outcome. African countries need to look for African solutions to their socio‐economic and political problems, adopting transdisciplinary approaches in the context of the African Renaissance paradigm.     

试析中日农产品贸易摩擦

随着全球经济一体化,各国之间的经贸关系日趋密切,我国对外贸易迅速发展,贸易摩擦逐年升温,特别是中日农产品贸易摩擦此起彼伏.本文以近年来中日农产品贸易摩擦实例为依据,从经济和政治两方面分析产生贸易摩擦的原因,而后提出缓解贸易摩擦的措施.随着中日双方的相互协调和经济发展,中日农产品贸易将在摩擦中继续发展.     

关于国际组织的结构主义分析--以东南亚国家联盟的发展为例

本文以为国际组织的结构就是国际组织成员国间的力量分布.国际组织的结构对组织的效率和公平发挥着重大的作用.东盟由于结构性的缺陷,缺乏效率,难以有效的推进一体化的合作.全球性的国际组织由于霸权的存在,缺乏公平,难以有效的增进世界的共同福利.本文以为,一种合作的两极结构可能为国际组织的发展提供比较好的关键条件,就如欧盟的发展.     

卢布国际化战略评析——兼论中俄贸易本币结算

货币国际化是一种货币在国际贸易和资本流动中行使交易媒介、价值尺度和贮藏手段等职能的过程。货币国际化对货币发行国的利益是多方面的。卢布国际化是近年来俄罗斯对外战略的重要组成部分。俄罗斯为实现卢布国际化采取了许多积极措施。目前,卢布在独联体国家贸易中的使用量较大。而中俄贸易的本币结算则走过了从试行到推广的进程。由于俄罗斯经济结构失衡,经济发展存在许多制约因素,卢布尚难以在国际贸易中成为强势货币,也难以成为储备货币,卢布国际化前景存在着不确定性。     

太平洋战争期间日本对东南亚的贸易统制研究

1941年日本在发动太平洋战争的同时,开始对东南亚地区实行贸易统制政策,采取政府出台相关政策、军队和企业具体实施的方针,通过滥发军票等方式,以较低的价格进口东南亚各地的重要资源。日本的贸易统制政策虽然在短期内使日本与东南亚各地之间的贸易急剧增长,但却严重破坏了东南亚各地的产业结构和对外贸易,给东南亚各国造成巨大损失。     

国际关系理论中的地区主义

地区主义有着世界经济和国际关系两种主要讨论方法.本文主要从国际关系理论的角度出发,首先对地区主义的基本概念进行阐释,然后对国际关系理论中涉及地区主义的有关学说和流派进行梳理,并特别对地缘经济学与地区主义的关系进行分析,在此基础上归纳了地区主义的基本逻辑.文章最后就地区主义研究的可能走向提出了自己的看法,并初步提出了"地区政治经济学"的概念.