How to think about the U.S. budget challenge

The long‐term budget prospects of the United States are grim. Projected spending greatly exceeds projected revenue over the next few decades. Projected growth of health care spending accounts for more than all of the anticipated gap. Without action to narrow the gap, accumulating deficits will drive up the ratio of debt to GDP. Interest payments will rise correspondingly. At some point, domestic and foreign holders of U.S. debt will come to doubt the capacity of the government to service this debt. At that point, they will demand sharply higher interest rates. The combination of increasing debt and rising interest rates will cause debt service costs to explode. What follows would be some combination of collapsing investment, declining production, debt default, and inflation—in brief, a calamitous mess. That such a mess will occur is certain if budget deficits as large as those currently anticipated are realized. Precisely when is impossible to forecast accurately.     

Fiscal Consolidation and Australia's Public Debt

Australia has experienced one of the fastest growing public debt levels in the world post‐Global Financial Crisis due to a series of large federal budget deficits driven by high government spending. In this paper we examine the balance sheet implications of this escalating public debt, before proposing some macro‐fiscal objectives for determining its sustainable level. These objectives are to (i) restore the federal government's solvency; (ii) eliminate foreign public debt; and (iii) achieve budgetary balance over the business cycle. Empirically, we first examine how much fiscal consolidation is required for debt stabilisation at current levels, before considering what sized budget balances are needed to achieve the target debt to GDP ratios consistent with the proposed objectives. The results show that no target debt to GDP level consistent with the optimal levels will be met on current fiscal settings in the medium term. This implies significantly greater fiscal consolidation is required to minimise future fiscal risk.     

The convergence of fiscal regimes and the decline of the Tiebout effect

A measure of waste from the competitive rent-seeking activity of special interest groups in federal, state and local budgets was calculated over the period 1900–88. This period in U.S. fiscal history is characterized by constitutional changes that have made for more transparency in governmental fiscal activities and for greater diffusion of taxes. The XVI Amendment to the Constitution created the progressive individual income tax (the corporate income tax was judged to be an excise tax in 1909 and passed the test of constitutionality). High marginal tax rates are a justification for a high average level of taxation. The Full Employment Act of 1946 insitutionalized government deficits as a means of meeting a political objective. As a result, opportunities for rent-seeking through budgetary reallocations rose in the United States. In the first two decades of the 20th century, waste at all levels of government represented about 10 percent of incremental national output. Today, waste is three times that amount.The transparency and diffusion of taxes are highest at the federal level and least at the local level. Rent-seeking through budgetary reallocation has followed the public purse. One explanation for the observed centralization of government in the 20th century may be that opportunities to concentrate benefits and diffuse taxes are highest at the federal level.     

When the Interest Rate on the National Debt Is a Policy Variable (and “Printing Money” Does Not Apply)

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) argues that the interest rate on the national debt for a monetary sovereign is a policy variable, not subject to whether bond markets “accept” or “reject” it. This paper defines measures of the components of the standard analysis of fiscal sustainability. It then methodically describes the Federal Reserve's operations relevant for understanding why interest rates on government debt in the United States have been and continue to be driven by monetary policy. A corollary that emerges—“printing money,” as economists usually understand it—is not applicable and has never been advocated by MMT.     

Post-Keynesian Public Budgeting & Finance: Assessing Contributions From Modern Monetary Theory

While Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) offers contributions that are worthy of serious consideration, some additional theory-building and synthesis with existing theory may be in order to tie MMT into the established budgeting literature. MMT focuses primarily on monetarily sovereign governments. These are governments that face extremely “soft” budget constraints insofar as they: issue and regulate the value of their own currencies, possess central banks that function as the fiscal agents of their government treasuries, are able to issue sovereign debt denominated in their domestic currency, and operate in a system of freely-floating currency exchange rates, with a minimum of currency and capital controls. National governments that are sovereign according to these criteria are able to make all debt service payments as they come due, virtually without regard to their level of outstanding debt; they cannot be forced to default against their will. They are also macroeconomically-autonomous. It is the collective position of the symposium papers that these conditions describe, in precise terms, the fiscal position of the U.S. federal government. As such, the existence of an ultra-soft U.S. government budget constraint is grounded in the extremely favorable conditions of money and credit that the federal government is subject to, and which in fact it has created and nurtured for itself since the Second World War. An important implication is that the federal level budgeting literature cannot ignore the macroeconomics and the administration of a sovereign currency regime, nor the monetary economics that ungirds it, without sustaining charges of unrealism.     

The Reagan Deficit

This paper analyzes the U.S. federal budget deficit during the Reagan administration and its short- and longer-term consequences for the aggregate economy. While budget policies of the Reagan administration do not account for all of the increases in annual deficits or in outstanding federal debt during the Reagan era, an analysis indicates that the administration's program of tax reduction and defense spending build-up were the major sources of deficit growth after the recovery from the recession of 1981-82. For the near-term future, the legacy of the Reagan deficits includes (1) the failure of domestically owned capital formation to expand at rates comparable to our major trading partners, (2) the necessity of diverting U.S. products and income to servicing foreign creditors, and (3) the need for rates of interest and profits to be high enough to induce foreigners to retain their holdings of U.S. assets lest divestiture cause a virtual collapse in the exchange rate. The final evaluation of the impact of the Reagan deficit hinges on whether the Reagan era of high consumption prosperity proves a good trade-off with the consequences of attenuated macropolicy responses to recession, lower levels of U.S. owned capital stock, and remittances to foreign creditors.     

Budget institutions and taxation

While a number of different studies have explored the effects of budgetary procedures and the centralization of the budget process on government debt, deficits and spending, few of them have explored whether such fiscal institutions matter for public revenue. This article argues that centralizing the budget process raises the levels of taxation by limiting the ability of individual government officials to veto tax increases in line with common-pool-problem arguments regarding public finances. Using detailed data on budgetary procedures from 15 EU countries, the empirical analysis shows that greater centralization of the budget process increases taxation as a share of GDP and that both the type of budget centralization and level of government fractionalization matter for the size of this effect. The results suggest that further centralizing the budget process limits government debt and deficits by increasing public revenues as well as constraining public spending.     

Federal and Local Interests in the Nation's Capital: Congress and District of Columbia Appropriations

Canadian political scientist Donald C. Rowat posits the thesis that there is a "conflict of interest" in all federal capital cities between the national government and the local residents. Federal and local interests in the nation's capital have been so intertwined that it is difficult to define or separate them. Congress has used the appropriations process to intervene in local policy matters even when the federal interest is not involved.     

美国高等教育资助之“资助包”制度的运作及理念

促进教育的公平是美国联邦政府教育政策的核心,为达到此目的,联邦政府通过提供各种助学金和贷学金等方式,为美国大学生接受高等教育提供支持和保障。在具体操作上,联邦政府通过优化整合一系列的资助,形成一个包含几种方案的"资助包"配发给学生供其选择,从而达到资助的合理、公正与公平。     

Leading from Below: How Sub-National Governments Influence Policy Agendas

This article takes a state's eye view of trends towards a more centralised system of governance in Australia. It argues that while globalisation strengthens the roles of national governments it also provides less noticed public policy and management opportunities for sub-national governments. The article shows how state governments in Australia can use high-level policy proposals to reinforce their continuing relevance as key members of a federal system of government. It proposes that skilful deployment of policy ideas and analyses can enable the states to sustain alternative national agendas despite hostility or lack of interest by the federal government. In conclusion, the article examines the implications for federal-state relations under the Rudd government. It suggests that the elements for productive reform agendas are present but that bringing them together will require considerable effort.     

BUDGETING IN A TIME OF AUSTERITY: THE CASE OF THE ESTONIAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Resulting from the global economic crisis, high budget deficits and debt burden characterise many economies looking for an exit strategy from current fiscal unbalances. The government of Estonia, having pursued a conservative fiscal policy for over a decade, reacted to the economic recession with radical budget adjustments, the latter constituting approximately 9% of gross domestic product in 2009. Consequently, Estonia took its chance and qualified for the euro in 2011. This study examines the behaviour of the Estonian central government and the basis of its budget decisions when planning drastic cost reductions through the theoretical lens of cutback management. The foremost results reveal that the crisis pushed the government to establish a different institutional framework that facilitated fast and effective decision‐making during the budget process. The savings proposals came from the Ministry of Finance; however, running a cash‐basis line‐item budgeting system in practice, the centre possessed only limited performance data for developing the proposals. Consequently, the long‐term impacts of the budget adjustments had not been assessed and are as yet unknown. A further conclusion is that the current budgeting framework should be revised and replaced step by step with a more advanced approach. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Political and institutional determinants of fiscal policy in the European Community

In recent theoretical and empirical research the variation in political and institutional arrangements which may affect the process of national policy formation is examined, in order to explain cross-country differences with respect to fiscal policies pursued. In this paper we build upon this literature and examine whether and how cross-country differences in debt accumulation and public sector size of Member Countries of the European Community during the 1980s can be explained. We conclude that the growth of government debt is positively related to the frequency of government changes and negatively to sound budgetary procedures. In countries with left-wing governments the growth of the share of government spending in total output generally tends to be higher.     

Do government formation deadlocks really damage economic growth? Evidence from history's longest period of government formation impasse

Several countries have experienced lengthy periods of government formation deadlock in recent years, as they have sought to form a new government. This study examines whether government formation deadlocks damage a country's economy. To do so, we analyze the case of Belgium, which took a record 541 days to create a post‐election government, following the June 2010 federal elections. Employing the synthetic control method, our results show that the Belgium economy did not suffer an economic toll; on the contrary, gross domestic product per capita growth was higher than would have otherwise been expected. As such, our evidence contradicts frequent claims that long periods of government formation deadlock negatively affect an economy.     

City Managers View Intergovernmental Relations

This report presents the findings of a national survey of citymanagers concerning intergovernmental relations. Key aspectsof intergovernmental relations covered in the survey are theadministration of the grant system, effects of federal grantson local government decisionmaking, types of federal aid, imagesof federal administrators, intergovernmental service agreements,comparison of state and federal government, and city managerinvolvement in intergovernmental relations.     

The National Interest and the Federal Role in Education

The current discussion of national goals for education createsa predicament for the federal government. Political pressureis mounting for an increased federal role in education, butits ability to play this role is limited both by its own budgetand policy constraints and by the increase in education policyinitiatives of state and local government over the past tenyears. This predicament is not amenable to solution by resortto traditional doctrinal or functional views of federalism.It requires the formulation of a new federal strategy. Amongthe initiatives the federal government might take are raisingpublic discourse about educational performance, sponsoring collaborativeefforts to reduce the incoherence of current educational reformsat the high school level, and increased use of federal categoricalprograms as development projects for new approaches to teachingand learning. These initiatives have the advantage of beingconsistent with current federal budget and policy constraints,drawing upon traditional federal functions, and complementingstate and local reform efforts.     

Effects of Federal Tax Reform on Local Finances

The federal Tax Reform Act of 1986 promised to be fair, simple,and revenue neutral to the federal treasury. Tax reform, however,was not revenue neutral with respect to all state and localtreasuries. Indeed, tax reform entailed a restructuring of thebalance of power in federal-state-local relations. In particular,new restrictions on the tax-exempt bond authority of state andlocal governments are requiring significant shifts in traditionallocal debt policy. Furthermore, the Supreme Courts recent decision,South Carolina v. Baker, raises additional concerns about thestatus of state and local tax-exempt bond issues. The natureof future relations between the federal government and localgovernments is likely to be molded more by the federal tax codeand by erosion in state authority over fiscal matters than byfederal grant-in-aid programs of the kind that have characterizedthe past quarter century of intergovernmental relations.     

Government reform in Canada

Today the Canadian federation is facing various challenges. External factors such as globalization, changing markets and the revolution in communications, as well as internal factors such as a growing deficit and debt, provinces wanting more autonomy and uncontrolled government spending are some of the pressures Canada is facing. In 1994 the government launched the most important review of federal policies and programmes since the early 1950s. This article examines how Programme Review, the most important of these activities, is helping to refocus the role of the federal government in a way that would be meaningful to all Canadians. The implementation of the combined results of policy and programme review will involve reductions in government programmes, the development of new delivery agencies, the launching of new partnerships, and the achievement of greater efficiencies. The article also looks at the important role the Public Service of Canada is playing in responding to the need for change. (© 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)     

The Bush Administration's Proposal for Credit Reform: Background, Analysis, and Policy Issues

Large recent and forecasted federal outlays to cover losses on deposit insurance and federally-assisted credit have increased concern in the executive and legislative branches about potential future liabilities of the federal government. These potential liabilities include federal credit; consequently, this renewed interest in federal credit reform. Credit reform would have to change the budgetary treatment of federal direct loans and federal guaranteed loans. Currently, the unified budget measures the cost of federal credit on a cash flow basis. Critics (including the Bush Administration) maintain that the appropriate budgetary measure of the costs of federal credit is the present value of the subsidies to credit recipients in the fiscal year that the credit is advanced. The Bush Administration's proposal for credit reform is presented in most detail in the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1989 (the Act), which was proposed but not enacted. The Act would have had federal officials estimate credit subsidies based on the equivalent interest rates in private credit markets. These subsidies would have been used to measure the budgetary cost of federal credit and would have required annual appropriations. Two credit revolving funds would have been established in the Treasury to finance credit flows. Many of these credit reform practices were included in the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 though.     

Testing Riker's Party-Based Theory of Federalism: The Argentine Case

This study seeks to advance our understanding of the institutionalunderpinnings of federalism by evaluating William H. Riker'sstudy of party causality. Using data from federal funds transfersin Argentina, a federation exhibiting high levels of fiscaldecentralization despite its centralized party system, it isshown that when governorships are held by opposition parties,the overall amount of federal funds transferred to provincesincreases considerably. In addition, changes in the partisancomposition of the national government are also associated withsteep increases in the share of provincial federal funds, whereas,more controversially and challenging prominent recent studiesof decentralization in Latin America, divided government atthe national level leads to centralization of intergovernmentalfunds. These findings support Riker's contention that politicalparties exercise a decisive influence over the distributionof fiscal powers between states and the national government.     

Budget deficits and interest rates in the United States

In this paper, an attempt has been made to reexamine the effect of budget deficits in the United States on interest rates. Unlike the previous studies which use only one definition of the dependent variable, we have used all three, namely, the nominal and the ex-post and the ex-ante real interest rate. Further, unlike previous studies, we considered both short-term and long-term interest rates. Our results provide absolutely no support for the proposition that federal deficits affect interest rates and thus contradict the recent findings by Cebula (1987) and Kolluri and Giannaros (1987). Finally, the paper provides some further support for the inverted Fisher hypothesis proposed by Carmichael and Stebbing (1983).Thanks are due to Zheng Wei for research assistance.