The Escalation of Terrorism: Microlevel Violence and Interstate Conflict

Following the 9/11 attacks, transnational terrorism is seen as a potential catalyst for interstate war. Yet, the willingness of states to fight in response to terrorist violence is puzzling, given that the damage created by terrorism is relatively marginal. This raises the question: if terrorists are so weak and create such little damage, and interstate conflicts are so costly, why are states willing to initiate seemingly ruinous wars to fight terrorist groups? This essay proposes an explanation to address this question using current theoretical and empirical research on terrorism and interstate violence. Recent work indicates that while terrorists appear weak compared to states, terrorists can wield significant coercive power in smaller geographic areas. I argue that if these areas are strategically crucial to the government, such as areas with oil wells or mineral deposits, terrorist activity may precipitously weaken states relative to their rivals. I therefore argue that even if groups are only capable of killing at low levels, terrorism may lead to macrolevel power shifts, which may contribute to interstate violence.     

The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict

The diversionary hypothesis offers a powerful alternative to rationalist explanations of war based on the state as a unitary actor. Most recently, it has been used to explain why democratizing states are more likely to initiate the use of force. In the past two decades, however, quantitative tests have produced mixed and often contradictory empirical results regarding the relationship between domestic unrest and external conflict. This article uses a modified “most likely” case study research design to test the hypothesis. Examination of Argentina's seizure of the Falkland Islands and Turkey's invasion of Cyprus, two cases that should be easy for diversion to explain, provide surprisingly little empirical support for the hypothesis, raising doubts about its wider validity as well as the relationship between democratization and war.     

Inequality Amid Equality: Military Capabilities and Conflict Behavior in Balanced Dyads

Studies of power parity and conflict implicitly assume all balanced dyads are created equal. However, variation exists within the capabilities of the states in these particular dyads. I address the question of what affects the likelihood of conflict onset within relatively balanced dyads. I argue uncertainty—in particular the uncertainty of the expected costs of conflict—determines the likelihood of conflict among these dyads. More uncertainty of costs means a greater likelihood of miscalculation leading to bargaining errors. First, I argue as an opponent’s capabilities increase, uncertainty of costs increase and the likelihood of conflict increases. Second, military action serves a purpose in bargaining and can help reduce uncertainty by signaling a state’s willingness to inflict and endure costs in order to gain a better settlement. Third, information transmission is likely to be effective only when states have the capability to inflict significant costs. As such, while greater capabilities will lead to a high likelihood of conflict onset, they also lead to a reduced likelihood of conflict escalation. The testing of nondirected dyads from 1946 to 2001 supports the theory’s implications.     

The Role of the Scholar-Practitioner in International Conflict Resolution

Can unofficial, academically based, third-party approaches contribute to the prevention and resolution of international and intercommunal conflicts? The article focuses on one such approach, interactive problem solving, which the author has applied primarily in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After describing the central tool of the approach, the problem-solving workshop, the article goes on to address the role of interactive problem solving and related approaches to the larger process of conflict resolution. In this context, it discusses the relationship of the microprocess of problem-solving workshops to the macroprocess of international conflict resolution; the relationship between official and unofficial diplomacy; the relationship between practice and scholarship in conflict resolution; the role of the university in the process; and the possibilities for institutionalizing this model of conflict resolution.     

Conflict Dynamics and Feedback: Explaining Change in Violence against Civilians within Conflicts

Conflicts are complex, dynamic processes wherein the frequency and intensity of violence changes throughout the contest. In this article, we explore the temporal dynamics of two long-term civil wars—DR-Congo and Sudan—to identify systematic and random conditions that lead to changes in civilian targeting. Violence committed by rival political actors, territorial exchange, and the number and addition of violent agents strongly shape the likelihood that civilian targeting events and casualties increase or decrease over time. General and country differences emerge from vector autoregression analysis to suggest that (1) three types of violent agents—rebels, militias, and the government—are locked in spirals of violence where violence against civilians by one actor leads to subsequent violence by another actor; (2) rebels and government forces respond to the other side’s acquisition of contested territory by increasing counterattacks on civilians, specifically in DR-Congo; and (3) increasing numbers of active nonstate agents lead to higher violence rates in the following months. Among these, civilian targeting by rival actors triggers the most follow-on violent events against civilians.     

Fragmentation,Conflict, and Competition: Islamist Anti-civilian Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

In spite of the shared high profile of recent Islamist attacks on civilians in sub-Saharan Africa, patterns of anti-civilian violence differ across and within violent Islamist groups, and the countries in which they are active. This research seeks to explain this variation by situating Islamist violence within the sub-national spaces in which such groups operate, and the wider conflict environment in which they choose to use, or limit the use of, anti-civilian violence. Drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset, the research finds that violent Islamist groups are more likely to target civilians where they are the most active conflict agent, even when other conflict agents are active in the same spaces; but less likely to do so when they are relatively weak and in competition with other non-state armed groups. Anti-civilian violence is thus deployed strategically by violent Islamist groups, while its function as a signalling or retributive policing tool depends on the relative strength of groups in relation to actors in the wider conflict arena.     

The Role of Play and Humor in Creative Conflict Management

In this article, I draw on the theories of three scholars whose works have not typically been part of the negotiation and conflict resolution canon (Arthur Koestler, Edward T. Hall, and Gregory Bateson) to develop the beginnings of a new model for creative and constructive conflict transformation that features playfulness and humor as its key components. I explore the connections between Koestler's theory of bisociation in the act of creation, Hall's ideas about the cultural construction of emotional responses, and Bateson's theories about the role of play and humor in human communication. All three authors focused particularly on body language and on the cognitive impact of emotions. Drawing on their theories and the connections between them, I suggest the theoretical underpinnings of a model for approaching conflict in which displacements and surprises, playfulness, humor, and "punch lines" can serve to reframe issues and open up new avenues for consensus building and resolution.     

Minority Religions and the Context of Violence: A Conflict/Interactionist Perspective

Violence (broadly defined to include collective as well as individual violence) associated with the recent rise of newer religious groups or 'cults', as well as longer-term minority religions, is examined, using a conflict orientation. The interactional nature of such violence is discussed, with accusations of violence concerning minority and newer religions placed in a conflict perspective that stresses the interdependency of religious groups and their opponents. Special attention is given to allegations of: (1) violence derived from group teachings and practices, with a focus on major recent tragic events involving religious groups; and (2) violence directed against members and groups by others, including private individuals and organization, as well as governmental entities.     

War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality

Recent studies have found significant excess mortality in women during and immediately after armed conflicts. This article directly assesses one of the most likely explanations, namely that war negatively affects reproductive health. Armed conflicts may contribute to sustain high fertility levels through increased social insecurity, loss of reproductive health services, and lower female education. Further, war's deteriorating impact on health infrastructure is expected to increase the relative risk that women die from complications associated with pregnancy and childbirth. These claims are tested in a global time-series cross-national study from 1970 through 2005. Three major findings are reported. First, armed conflicts are associated with higher overall fertility in low-income countries only. Second, maternal mortality rates are elevated, albeit moderately, in conflict countries. Third, conflicts in neighboring countries are associated with lower maternal mortality, possibly indicating that health interventions among refugee and host populations are relatively successful. While addressing one of the least successful UN Millennium Development Goals, this study also responds to the UN Security Council Resolution 1325, in which Article 16 specifically calls for the “Secretary-General to carry out a study on the impact of armed conflict on women and girls.”     

The Role of Media in Conflict and their Influence on Securitisation

During conflicts, the media are often the only source of information concerning the ‘other’ side and hence a weighty instrument of opinion making in society. This leads to the central question to what extent the media can contribute to securitising (or desecuritising) issues in society. In this article, examples from the Israeli media landscape are compared with the theoretical approach of the securitisation theory of the Copenhagen School.     

The Role of Suicide in Politics,Conflict, and Terrorism

ABSTRACT

The central argument of this paper is that suicide has had a long and explicit role in politics and in conflict. Turning to historical examples for insight offers many advantages to current efforts to understand and respond to suicide terrorism. In particular, it facilitates greater objectivity and a calmer consideration of the actors and circumstances than can often be the case with contemporary events. Explanations of suicide in terms of madness, brainwashing, coercion, and fanaticism ring hollow with many of the historical cases, and other explanations, causes, and processes take on greater significance. By considering a number of case examples, this article shows how improved historical awareness can provide badly needed objective insight and help reveal strategic trends and issues. The article illustrates how historical cases offer valuable material and insight which is often extremely difficult to acquire on contemporary protagonists. Lessons and issues for research and policy are highlighted.

I balanced all, brought all to mind,

The years to come seemed waste of breath,

A waste of breath the years behind

In balance with this life, this death

—W. B. Yeats ¹ 1. W. B. Yeats, “An Irish airman forsees his death.” The Poems (London: Everyman, 1919/1990).

东北亚和解与合作:韩国的作用与角色冲突

冷战后韩国在东北亚地区的地位与作用均有明显的上升趋势。而卢武铉提出的东北亚平衡者外交战略,要在地区事务中发挥更大的独特作用,更使东北亚地区的国际关系有了新变化的可能。在国际事务中,韩国自主外交的"独立意识"及其作用的发挥,有利于地区安全的战略平衡。同时,在朝核问题、区域合作等问题上,韩国作用的发挥还是具有一定的局限性。中国应进一步加强与韩国在各领域的合作。这对呼应韩国自主防卫诉求、培植中韩互信、牵制美日、防止东北亚"新冷战"的发生都具有重要的战略意义。     

Turbulent Stasis: Comparative Reflections upon Intercommunal Violence and Territoriality in the Israel/Palestine Conflict

From (at least) the Balfour Declaration of 1917 right down to the present day, the Zionist-Palestinian conflict has been sculpted by external forces. But never entirely so: grassroots patterns of confrontation have also been vital. This article therefore adopts a “bottom-up” approach to the evolution of the conflict since the early twentieth century.     

Predicting Revolt: Fragility Indexes and the Level of Violence and Instability in the Arab Spring

This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.     

Reconnecting Systems Maintenance with Social Justice: A Critical Role for Conflict Resolution

With roots in both the field of labor-management negotiation and the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s, practitioners and theorists of conflict resolution have been guided by two main theories concerning the objectives of alternative dispute resolution. On the one hand is the objective of systems maintenance, with an emphasis on stability and rational decision making. On the other hand is the objective of social justice, which emphasizes changing social institutions and organizations to support the protection of basic human rights and needs. This article analyzes the assumptions of both objectives and concludes with recommendations for how to make the goals of systems maintenance and social justice mutually supporting.     

The Role of Class Action Litigation in Achieving Child Welfare Reform: A Study in Public Conflict Resolution

This article traces the history of a 16-year court battle over the child welfare system in Kansas City, Missouri, which eventually headed toward resolution as the result of an innovative public policy negotiation process. The process combined the substantive expertise of nationally and locally respected child welfare professionals with political muscle at the state, local, and community levels to develop and implement a plan for reform. If the results of this process become institutionalized in the Kansas City child welfare system, it will represent a significant transformation in the governing culture and practices of the system and the community it serves.