Leadership,regime security,and China's policy toward Taiwan: prospect theory and Taiwan crises

Abstract

Traditional analyses of Taiwan crises have relied mainly on deterrence theory for their explanatory power. This approach fails to account for China's risk-taking behavior, which can be explained by prospect theory. We suggest that Chinese leaders are more likely to use more risky military coercion against Taiwan's pro-independence movements within a domain of losses, i.e., when their regime faces serious domestic and international challenges to its security. Conversely, Chinese leaders are more likely to employ less risky political pressure to oppose Taiwan's pro-independence forces if their decision making takes place in a domain of gains, i.e., when the security of China's regime is not challenged. We conclude that maintaining a good US–China relationship is the best strategy for the United States to help prevent military crises in the Taiwan Strait.     

The Long Road to Flexicurity: The Development of Job Security Regulations in Denmark and Sweden

Flexicurity has become a prominent policy recommendation in recent years. However, little is known about the actual development of flexicurity in the country most often associated with it – namely Denmark. This is particularly the case for one of the three ‘pillars’ of flexicurity: low levels of job security regulations. This article fills this gap in the scholarly literature. It demonstrates that regime attributes are often not the result of policy making by wise policy designers, but unintended consequences of contingent choices made with the purpose of winning short‐term political gains. Comparing the development of job security regulations in Denmark and Sweden, the article shows that the two countries followed a similar path until the late 1960s. In both, job regulations were part of collective agreements. However, in the 1960s the labour movement started to demand more restrictions, which resulted in the 1974 Employment Protection Act in Sweden. No such change happened in Denmark. Two crucial differences can explain this unequal development. First, societal pressure for regulation was larger in Sweden than in Denmark. And second, the Swedish labour movement was stronger and more unified. When the Danish trade union movement could have turned to the political arena, the 1973 ‘earthquake’ election and the resulting fragmentation of the party system closed the window for all‐left majority governments in Denmark. Without reliable partners to the left and no majority of their own, Danish Social Democrats were not able to pass restrictive job security regulations against the will of employers' associations.     

Defection of North Korea's ideologist a sign of regime crisis

Abstract

The defection of Hwang Jang‐yop, one of North Korea's major ideological authorities and a senior member of the leadership, is a clear indication of regime crisis in Pyongyang. Hwang's assessment of the nature of the Kim Jong‐il regime, which he regards as incapable of reform and committed to war with South Korea, will strengthen those in Seoul who argue for a tough approach to be taken in negotiations on security issues with North Korea. At the same time, his remarks on the extent of communist influence in South Korean politics may influence the outcome of the 1997 presidential elections.     

Human (In)Security and Democracy in Central America

Human security has increasingly shifted attention to the individual, while the state has become guarantor (or violator) of security given its role in governing the domestic environment. This article examines how variations in regime forms influence security, pointing to the importance of political security in the wider human security framework. To illustrate, the article examines the nature of political security in Central America, a region with weakly democratized states and histories of political violence. The findings suggest a link between democracy and human security that is mediated by state capacity and the ability to control non-state violence against individuals.     

The PLA and regionalism in Guangdong

The traditional view that bi- and multilateral security arrangements are mutually exclusive is misleading. Since the Korean War the multilateral UN Armistice regime and strong bilateral alliances have kept peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. In the 1990s, multilateral security institutions such as KEDO have become more important in supplementing bilateral security treaties. Reflecting upon a future Korean Unification, the article argues that multilateral security institutions serve important complementing functions such as building additional trust, stabilizing commitment and enhancing resources that bilateral institutions often lack. The article concludes by suggesting that current bilateral relations (US-DPRK, US-ROK, ROK-J, US-PRC) and multilateral arrangements (KEDO) must be reinforced through enhanced multilateral co-operation to allow a peaceful Korean unification accepted by all parties concerned.     

Shield of collaboration: The Wang Jingwei regime's security service, 1939–1945

This article studies the role of the security service in the Wang Jingwei collaborationist regime (1940–45), and argues that it not only contributed to the regime's coercive muscle but that it was also involved with the regime's broader socio-political policies. The central position within the Wang Jingwei government enjoyed by the security service enabled its head, Li Shiqun, to wield enormous influence within the regime. However the Wang Jingwei government had to share control over its security service with the Japanese intelligence agencies. This dual control made the security service a less tractable instrument of regime control than it should have been. This dual authority provided a clear example of the limits on the power of a collaborationist regime like the Wang Jingwei government, even in the crucial area of regime security.     

Jordan’s pragmatism and current challenges

Historically, Jordan has handled the challenges of being located in a contested region with effective pragmatism. It now faces refugee pressure and the threat of jihadist infiltration from Syria, as well as a weak economy. Amman will have to strike a delicate balance between security cooperation with the United States against the Islamic State and cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states against the Assad regime to ensure it gleans maximum strategic rent.     

Gated communities in America: Walling out the world?

Abstract

Gated communities—enclaves of homes surrounded by walls, often with security guards—are becoming increasingly popular in America. This article introduces and analyzes findings of a Fannie Mae Foundation—sponsored panel on gated communities held at the 1997 Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning annual conference. A key finding is that many people choose to reside in gated communities because they believe that such places reduce risk, ranging from the mundane (e.g., unwanted social exchanges) to the high stakes (e.g., declining home values).

In many ways, gated communities deliver what they promise, by providing an effective defense against daily intrusions. However, some of their benefits entail a high social cost. A sense of community within gated communities comes at the expense of a larger identity with the region outside. Gated communities manifest and reinforce an inward‐focused community culture, where the tension between the individual and society tilt toward self‐interest.     

Ageing with Dignity: Old-Age Pension Schemes from the Perspective of the Right to Social Security Under ICESCR

The ‘dignity and worth of the human person’ emphasised in international human rights instruments resonate strongly in relation to the world’s ageing population, which is projected to be the fastest growing population group in the world and often among the most vulnerable. While elderly persons as a group are heterogeneous and their socio-economic life situation varies significantly between individuals, the need for universal support mechanisms such as non-contributory old-age benefits have been recognised by many states, and currently, over 100 countries around the world provide some form of social pension targeted towards the elderly populations. This article appraises a sample of these old-age pension schemes from the perspective of the right to social security, with particular emphasis on the dignity and worth of the human person as espoused within the international human rights regime.     

Zwischen Macht und Gerechtigkeit

The nuclear nonproliferation regime is an amazing success story: The number of countries which have stopped nuclear weapons activities in various stages of progress is much larger than the number of nuclear weapon states. At the apex of its success, however, the regime is threatened by erosion from two different directions: A small number of rule-breakers and outsiders undermines its central objective: to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. The refusal of the official nuclear weapon states to fulfill their undertaking of nuclear disarmament violates the principle of justice enshrined in the treaty, and thereby destroys its legitimacy. This insight has meanwhile expanded beyond the group of stubborn disarmers into the mainstream security establishment. How successful this expansion will be will determine the future of the regime — with far-reaching consequences for global security.     

The concept of flexible engagement and the practice of enhanced interaction: Intramural challenges to the ‘ASEAN way’

Abstract

This article examines the challenges to the diplomatic and security culture of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as posed by Thailand's spurned proposal for ‘flexible engagement’ and the pursuit of ‘enhanced interaction’ by some ASEAN members in intramural relations. It asks whether these challenges should be understood as turning points in the way in which regional leaderships in Southeast Asia interact. The article argues that while the ‘ASEAN way’ is indeed changing, this change, at least for the moment, focuses mainly on extending the range of issues and contexts traditionally defined as internal affairs in which other ASEAN governments may now legitimately become involved. Considerations about ASEAN cohesion, regime security and regional influence do not suggest an imminent or complete abandonment of ASEAN's diplomatic and security culture. The likelihood that enhanced interaction will continue to be pursued by ASEAN leaderships should therefore not be seen to imply that principles such as quiet diplomacy or restraint have already become obsolete.     

After citizenship: autonomy of migration,organisational ontology and mobile commons

This paper explores the relevance of the autonomy of migration approach for understanding the role of citizenship in the sovereign control of mobility. There is an insurgent configuration of ordinary experiences of mobility emerging against this regime of control. At its core is the sharing of knowledge and infrastructures of connectivity, affective cooperation, mutual support and care among people on the move. The sovereign regime of mobility control is displaced on the level on which it attempts to take hold: the everyday movements of migrants. The frenetic fixation with security is challenged by the creation of common worlds of existence; the obsession with governance is replaced by inhabiting social spaces below the radar of existing political structures. This paper attempts to contribute to a reconstruction of this mundane ontology of transmigration, an ontology which we will describe as the mobile commons of migration.     

Architecture of a broken dream: The CIA and Guatemala, 1952–54

In 1954, the United States launched a coup against Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbenz. In 2003, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of State declassified new documents pertaining to the fall of the Arbenz regime. In this paper I argue that although the new information does not substantially alter the overall debate about the causes and consequences of the action, it offers a portrait of the operation which is richer and more complex than what has been seen before. The documents reveal details of the operation which have been hidden for half a century. They illustrate how the mission faltered under the weight of security breaches and miscommunications. They also offer a fascinating glimpse at a shadowy figure in the plot to topple the Arbenz regime who has until now largely evaded the public record. In the end the documents affirm what many scholars had previously concluded, that at the end of the day it was the actions of the Guatemalan Army that made the difference between victory and defeat in the crusade to oust a democratically elected head of state.     

To survive is all: How the authoritarian core tackles neighboring dictatorships

This article attempts to answer why autocrats of illiberal regional powers intervene in the politics of neighboring dictatorships and argues that the dictator always prioritizes his survival and thus intervenes if he perceives his survival to be under direct threat. The formal model proposes three factors that determine the level of perceived threat: demographic composition, structural similarity, and regime dynamic of autocratic countries. The authoritarian core must pay close attention to those neighboring autocratic countries that are suffering from regime change, are close to its own densely populated region, and have regime types or social structure similar to itself. Additionally, if hostile ethnic or religious groups are highly concentrated in some areas of the authoritarian core where it borders autocracies experiencing regime instability, the authoritarian core will be motivated to intervene in the domestic affairs of those neighboring countries. Using QCA and case studies, this article confirmed that whether an authoritarian core will take action against countries in geographical proximity depends on a combination of these three factors.     

State transformation and resource politics: Australia and the regional political economy

Abstract

Although the 1994 Agreed Framework offers a solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis, many problems may prevent its successful implementation. Should the Agreed Framework break down, the United States and South Korea have indicated that they will ask Japan to join them in a trilateral economic sanctions regime.

Japanese participation would include the severance of trade and financial flows, including money sent to North Korea from Japan's ethnic Korean community. In this paper I examine this financial flow, and, finding it a valuable linkage to the North Korean economy, conclude that Japanese participation is vital for a successful sanctions regime against North Korea.

Given this, I examine whether or not Tokyo's cooperation will be forthcoming. Japan would be inclined to participate given that it has a strong interest in eliminating a regional nuclear threat. Furthermore, Japan would also feel pressure from its allies to display diplomatic leadership in the Asia‐Pacific region, as befits a country of its economic importance.

Despite these international reasons for Japanese participation, domestic factors will be likely to prevent Tokyo from joining a sanctions regime: constitutional questions, the possibility of terrorist reprisals, interest in Pyongyang's regime maintenance, concerns for the rights of Japan's ethnic Korean community, and political ties between North Korean and Japanese politicians. I find that these domestic factors will outweigh international pressures for Japanese participation, and thus conclude that in the event of a breakdown in the Agreed Framework, alternatives to a trilateral sanctions strategy against North Korea must be considered.     

基于世界粮食危机的我国粮食安全问题的新思考

世界粮食安全面临着新挑战,而中国粮食安全中也存在着隐患,即粮食生产逐步恢复,但继续稳定增产的难度加大;粮食供需矛盾突出,粮食的供求将长期处于紧平衡状态;粮食宏观调控面临着新问题,粮食危机进一步加深。化解我国粮食危机应扩大粮食综合生产能力,提高粮食总体产量;增加粮食供给,缓和粮食供需矛盾;健全粮食宏观调控机制,保障国家粮食安全。     

The impossibility of a desirable minimal state

The amount of control the general public exerts over government depends on accepted government procedures as determined by the political constitution and prevailing public opinion. It has not been the purpose of this paper to suggest ways of providing the public more control over government but to consider some implications of changes in that control. It is obvious that it would be desirable for the general public to have more control over political decisions; i.e., for the political process to be more responsive to the broad based benefits and costs that result from government action. The question is; what does more public control over government imply about the desirable size of government? For the natural rights advocate the answer is nothing. Government should be only large enough to protect citizens against force and fraud. The purpose of the present paper, however, has been to argue that the desirable size of government can be either positively or negatively related to the control exerted over it by the public. If this argument is accepted, it casts doubt on the possibility of a desirable minimum state.When there is little public control over government, organized special interest will have disproportionate political influence and will use this influence to expand government into activities that are detrimental to the public interest. Obviously, given this situation, it will be desirable to use additional public control over government to reduce the size of government by restricting its activities. But just as obvious is that this situation is one in which control over government is inadequate to the task of achieving a minimal state.     

The “dictator’s endgame”: Explaining military behavior in nonviolent anti-incumbent mass protests

This article introduces a configurative theory to explain military reactions to nonviolent mass protests in dictatorships. An empirical analysis of three cases of such “dictators endgames” (Burma in 1988, Sudan in 1985, and East Germany in 1989), shows that militaries will defend the dictator against the masses if the military leadership’s physical and economic well-being is linked to the dictator’s survival in office. In turn, military leaders will defect from the regime incumbent only if the alternatives of siding with the opposition or staging a coup d’état is expected to be more beneficial to their interests than staying loyal to the regime.     

Federalism and Consociational Regimes

Federalism and consociationalism are useful means of understandingpolitical systems. Federalism and consociationalism are bothbased on compound majoritarianism rather than simple majoritarianism,and both represent modern attempts to accommodate democraticcomplexity and pluralism, but the two systems are not quitesymmetrical, and territorial organization is not the only characteristicthat differentiates them. Instead, it can be said that federalismrelates to the form of a polity, while consociationalism relatesto the character of a regime. To the extent that federalismmay also function as the character of a regime, then federalismand consociationalism may be more symmetrical. One of the ambiguitiesof federalism is that it is often both form and regime. Consociationalism,however, relates only to regime.