History,historians and the naming of foreign policy: a postmodern reflection on American strategic thinking during the Truman administration

Over the last decade a spate of new works has appeared that attempt to re-evaluate early American Cold War objectives. Intelligence scholars have been on the forefront of this race to rename US strategy. In this article the author examines the recent arguments put forward and argues that despite all of these efforts we have still failed to offer a viable framework for understanding American strategic thinking in the post-war world.     

Why policy analysis and ethics are incompatible

Commentators in the field of policy analysis have argued persuasively for the inclusion of ethical evaluations in the analytic process, yet most practitioners in the policy field avoid analyzing moral issues. Standard explanations for this neglect of ethics tend to be inadequate; assertions that normative analysis is unnecessary, impractical, impossible, or undesirable are demonstrably weak. Political factors, on the other hand, provide a clearer understanding of the neglect of ethics. Ethical inquiry is shunned because it frequently threatens the professional and political interests of both analysts and policymakers. The administrator, the legislator, the bureaucracy, and the profession of policy analysis itself all resist the potential challenges of moral evaluation.     

Asymmetric partisan advantage and limited strategic calculation: Why Republican challengers appear unresponsive to national partisan trend

The notion that electorally experienced House challengers are guided by estimates of electoral prospects' influence on their probability of victory is now familiar (Jacobson and Kernell, 1983; Jacobson, 1987, 1989, 1990). Recently, Jacobson (1989, 1990) also uncovered a puzzling asymmetry in strategic behavior: experienced Democratic challengers are responsive to national performance indicators, but not Republican. It seems, however, highly unlikely that strategic behavior is asymmetric. I assume the increase national partisan trend gives to a candidate's electoral prospects is tied to district competitiveness; therefore, any competitive advantage should result in a greater boost in the electoral prospects for the advantaged party. It follows that a lopsided reward for partisan trend should also offer a greater incentive for electorally experienced candidates of the advantaged party to challenge House incumbents. I test, and the findings support, the hypothesis that Democrats enjoy this advantage. The results offer strong circumstantial evidence for the explanation of Jacobson's puzzle.     

The limited influence of competitive intelligence over corporate strategy in Israel: historical,organizational, conceptual,and cultural explanations

ABSTRACT

Strategic intelligence in national security enjoys an elevated status. Despite past failures and current challenges, its role in analysing the strategic environment is considered crucial for practising strategy. In the business world, competitive intelligence (CI) has evolved for a similar purpose: understanding the competitive environment, as a foundation for strategy. The current article focuses on the Israeli business world, where CI’s influence on corporate strategy is limited, reflecting the broader state of CI's immature academic and professional foundations. The article provides historical, organizational, conceptual, and cultural explanatory hypotheses for this minor impact of CI in Israel, a country where national intelligence is a highly influential institution. It thus broadens the scope of traditional intelligence studies and can contribute to CI scholarship.     

The influence of federalism on fiscal policy making

Abstract. This article attempts to refine the statement that federal states face difficulties in fiscal policy making because of the territorial division of powers by comparing two federal countries, Canada and Germany. These two countries differ in terms of their type of federalism: Canada displaying a power-separation system and Germany corresponding to a power-sharing type. According to the authors, the territorial factor influences fiscal policy making through the distribution of taxing and spending powers as well as through patterns of intergovernmental relations. The use of fiscal policy instruments and the likely effects on conflict and cooperation in those two countries is discussed with empirical evidence. The authors come to the conclusion that federalism is indeed a constraint on fiscal policy making, but that the two types of power division face different obstacles and deal differently with fiscal problems. In the power-separation system of Canada, the federal government has encompassing competencies to use fiscal policy instruments unilaterally and without restraint, but faces a lack of concerted action with the provinces which reduces its scope of action in fiscal policy making. In the power-sharing system in Germany, concerted action facilitates macroeconomic stabilisation strategies but the compulsory negotiation system distorts the use of fiscal policy instruments by distributive bargaining.     

Experimentation at the interface of science and policy: a multi-case analysis of how policy experiments influence political decision-makers

For decades now, scholars have grappled with questions about how knowledge producers can enhance the influence of their knowledge on users and improve policy making. However, little attention has been paid to how policy experiments, a flexible and ex ante method of policy appraisal, obtain influence over political decision-making. To address this gap, an exploratory framework has been developed that facilitates systematic analysis of multiple experiments, allowing hypotheses to be tested regarding how an experiment’s institutional design can influence the views of political decision-makers. Cash’s categories of effectiveness are used to describe an experiment’s conceptual influence; being how credible, salient, and legitimate decision-makers perceive an experiment to be. The hypotheses are tested using 14 experiment cases found relevant to climate adaptation in the Netherlands, with complete survey responses from over 70 respondents. The results show that although, in general, the experiments had medium to high influence on decision-makers, institutional design does have a noticeable impact. Organisers should make choices carefully when designing an experiment, particularly in order to maintain relevance during an experiment’s implementation and to build community acceptance. Suggestions for future research include a comparison of experiment effects with the effects of non-experimental forms of appraisal, such as piloting or ex ante impact assessment.     

Inter-disciplinary contradictions and the influence of science on policy

Policy conclusions of two or more disciplines often appear to contradict one another, and so cancel out one another's influence on policy. This article investigates the degree to which the contradiction is only apparent, in the sense that the disciplines answer different questions. In many instances the disciplines are complementary; some measure of reconciliation can be obtained by defining more sharply the assumptions and data that lie behind their questions, and hence the theoretical domains over which their answers are valid. By showing that those domains are non-overlapping, disputes can often be understood and opposing views reconciled.For some scholars empathy with the aims and methods of another discipline is possible; for others the advance of their own discipline is too important an objective to allow limiting its applicability. By uncompromising arguments, however, they may harm their own cause. For when different disciplines publicly press for opposite policies they weaken the credibility and influence of science in all fields, including their own.     

Pretexts and US foreign policy: the war on terrorism in historical perspective

This article analyzes the way that US foreign policy élites have used pretexts to manage public opinion. Policymakers, it is argued, often seize upon threatening external events, and use these events to create a favorable political climate in which to “sell” policies of militarization and external expansion to the public. The article argues that the Bush administration has used the threat of terrorism as a pretext to implement a wide range of policies that had been decided upon in advance of the 9/11 attacks. It also argues that the recent uses of pretexts by the Bush administration have strong historical precedents: extended case studies of pretexts are presented for the events surrounding the Korea crisis of 1950 and the Afghanistan crisis of 1979–1980, as well as the more recent War on Terrorism.     

A multinominal logit analysis of the influence of policy variables and board experience on FOMC voting behavior

Previous studies have used probit or logit models to analyze two states of monetary policy (tighter or looser). In this paper we employ multinominal logit to permit Federal Reserve monetary policy to assume one of three alternative states (tighter, looser, or no change) as a function of three independent economic variables (unemployment, real growth, and inflation) and the amount of experience of the Board of Governors. The results indicate that the Federal Reserve reacted differently under Burns, Miller and Volcker and between Volcker's two operating procedures in the formulation of monetary policy.     

Ideology matters: Why decentralisation has a differentiated effect on regionalist parties' fortunes in Western democracies

This article addresses the effects of decentralisation reforms on regionalist parties' electoral strength. It takes up the debate between ‘accommodatists’ (i.e., electoral loss due to policy accommodation) and ‘institutionalists’ (i.e., electoral gain due to institutional empowerment). These effects depend on the electoral venue considered – regional or national – and on the ideological radicalism of a given regionalist party – secessionist or autonomist. This study finds that increases in the level of decentralisation are positively associated with higher scores for autonomist parties in regional elections, while they are not statistically significantly correlated with secessionist parties' electoral performances. In contrast, in national elections, decentralisation reforms seem to penalise autonomist parties more than secessionist ones. These findings are based on the analysis of a novel dataset which includes regional and national vote shares for 77 regionalist parties in 11 Western democracies from 1950 until 2010.     

The influence of foreign direct investment on contracting confidence in developing countries

This paper examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) influences confidence in commercial contracts in developing countries. While the research on how host countries’ policy environments encourage FDI inflows has flourished, scholars have paid less attention to how the policy environment and local actors’ beliefs might, in turn, be affected by FDI. This is surprising because multinational enterprises are well‐recognized political and economic actors across the world. We expect that their increasing economic salience will influence the policy environments in which they function. By employing an innovative measure of property rights protection – contract‐intensive money – we examine how foreign direct investment influences host countries’ contract‐intensive money ratio in a large panel time series of both developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2002. Our analysis suggests that higher levels of FDI inflows are associated with greater confidence in commercial contracts and, by extension, the protection of property rights in developing countries.     

Decision process models and the needs of policy-makers: Thoughts on the foreign policy interface

Many political scientists are not at all convinced that empirically verifiable generalizations about political behavior can ever be produced. There are thus many who believe that political scientists can never exert a significant impact upon the public policy-making process. Perhaps one way of narrowing the gap between the researcher and the policy-maker is to examine the public (foreign) policy decision-making process, pinpoint the leverage points within the process where social and political scientists (who engage in foreign policy analysis) might help, and then list the kinds and methods of analysis that would contribute the most to the process. The work of Harold D. Lasswell, James E. Anderson, E. S. Quade, William D. Coplin, and Charles F. Hermann can help us define the (foreign) policy-making process and locate the points at which scientific analysis can help the (foreign) policy-maker. The matching of these leverage points with types and instances of relevant analyses, as well as the methodologies necessary to carry out the analyses results in a matrix of decision tasks and research tasks which may be viewed as an agenda for the conduct of policy relevant research.The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or any other agency of the U.S. Government.     

Continuity and change in U.S. foreign policy: Carter and reagan on el salvador

In attempting to understand continuity and change in U.S. foreign policy, analysts have tended to place too much emphasis on the importance of process and too little on that of values, interests, and strategies. In formulating policies toward the conflict in El Salvador, both the Carter and Reagan administrations were constrained by some enduring moral and political factors in the U.S. civic culture and by some fundamental processes of decision-making, which together account for the similarities in policy between administrations. Despite such factors, each administration's remaining space for choice produced a decidedly different set of policies with different outcomes.     

The influence of emotional intelligence on leadership styles: A profile of executives in ASEZA organization

This article reports new insight into the relationship between emotional intelligence (EI) dimensions and leadership style at the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA). Multiple regression results have revealed a negative significant association between EI and leadership style in three major dimensions of EI, namely, self‐awareness, motivation, and empathy. Stepwise regression analysis revealed a significant positive association of self‐regulation and social skills dimensions on ASEZA's leadership style. Results further indicated that there are no significant differences between the dimensions of EI and demographic factors as well as between leadership and undertaken demographic factors. However, no research has focused on the relationship between EI and leadership style in ASEZA‐Jordan context. The current research identified this gap in the literature by connecting leadership through EI. Implications are that leaders lacking all or some EI dimensions are less likely to have a healthy relationship with their subordinates and are likely to be classified as being ineffective leaders. Organizations could benefit from being able to differentiate ineffective leaders from leaders who suffer from some or all EI dimensions. Therefore, the lack of some major EI dimensions in an organization like ASEZA negatively influences its competitive advantage as well as its performance.     

Precedents,parliaments, and foreign policy: historical analogy in the House of Commons vote on Syria

Abstract

This analysis investigates the role of historical analogies in the influence that parliaments have in foreign policy. Our empirical focus is the UK Parliament’s unusual opposition to the Prime Minister on UK involvement in Syria in 2013. The vote challenges many conventional expectations about the role of parliament in security affairs. Important in this vote were lessons learned and strategically used from UK participation in the intervention of Iraq in 2003. This argument is developed theoretically based on research on historical analogies: parliaments, ‘learn’ (primarily negative) lessons about past foreign policy events which guide parliamentary preferences and procedures and can enhance parliaments’ role in subsequent foreign policy. The article contributes to research on analogies by extending the logic to lessons on process. This use of precedents can offer more structurally oriented perspectives that translate critical junctures into reforms in procedures and policy-making practices.