中东欧国家与冷战后北约的新变化

冷战结束后,北约并未因对手的消失而瓦解,而是通过扩大组织、出台新战略和实施新行动找到生存依据并获得新的发展。在北约的新扩大、新战略和新行动中,中东欧国家不管是主动参与还是被动接受,都起到了不可低估的作用。中东欧国家的加入令北约成员国从16个增至30个,拓展了北约的疆域。东欧剧变带来的国际局势的变化,特别是前南斯拉夫地区发生的战争促使北约提出新的战略概念,波黑战争、科索沃战争和马其顿危机更是成为北约新战略的试验场。中东欧国家参与了北约在波黑、科索沃、阿富汗和伊拉克的行动以及乌克兰危机发生后针对俄罗斯的军事部署,做出独有的贡献。同时,中东欧国家的加入也给北约在决策效率、行动能力、责任分担和价值观方面带来新的挑战。不过,由于中东欧国家的军事力量和国家实力有限,在北约内部的影响力不大,这些挑战不足以危及北约的生存。     

美国与第一次印度支那战争

194 6 - 195 4年第一次印度支那战争期间 ,出于东亚冷战和加强欧洲合作的双重需要 ,美国对印度支那的政策不断进行调整 ,从开始的所谓“中立”逐渐转向对法国的全面支持 ,不仅为法国在印度支那的殖民战争提供了大量经济、军事援助 ,而且愈来愈表现出欲在该地区取代法国的倾向。美国对第一次印度支那战争所奉行的政策产生了严重后果 ,它为日后美国更深地陷入越战泥潭铺平了道路 ,特别是这一时期美国决策者提出的“多米诺骨牌理论” ,更是危害深远。     

俄罗斯与北约:脆弱但可持续的伙伴关系

由于俄罗斯与北约对合作目标的互惠性认知虽有差异但在战略目标上基本一致,同时从绩效来看,双方各有所获。但双方对东欧和前苏联地区地缘战略空间的争夺,特别是俄罗斯用楔子战略和2010年新版军事学说对抗北约东扩,同时,双方对各自在未来欧洲安全机制中的角色定位和相互定位也不同,因此,俄罗斯与北约的伙伴关系将是脆弱的,但是可持续的。     

Coming to terms with neopatrimonialism: Soviet and American nation-building projects in Afghanistan

The author examines how patrimonial forms of domination, as conceived in a Weberian sense, came to pervade the formal bureaucratic apparatuses developed under both Soviet Marxist–Leninist (from the late 1970s) and American-coalition liberal designs (since 2001), creating hybrid states defined by neopatrimonialism. Drawing lessons from the survival and eventual collapse of the Najibullah regime following the 1989 withdrawal of Soviet forces, the article finds that the continued extension of aid and arms, and not the presence of foreign military forces, proved most effectual in sustaining the Afghan leader's patronage-based grip on power. Arguing that the contemporary regime of Hamid Karzai has likewise adopted a neopatrimonial-type rule, these findings have clear implications for current American policy in Afghanistan. America, Afghanistan's ultimate patron, can better ensure stability in the region by extending aid to Karzai than by continuing a large and costly military occupation of the region.     

美伊战争对中美台三角关系影响透视

美国绕过联合国不顾国际社会的普遍反对而发动对伊战争,不但严重损害了联合国权威和现行国际秩序,而且对中、美、台“两岸三边”关系也将产生明显影响。     

Persistence and change in Soviet and Russian relations with Afghanistan

This paper examines persistence and change in the Soviet Union's and then Russia's relations with Afghanistan with respect to development and security. First, a detailed analysis of the promise and reality of Soviet development assistance reveals conceptual shortcomings in their attempt to induce economic development in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union's heritage is then revealed in order to understand Russia's current perception of post-Taliban Afghanistan as well as Russia's emerging interests and commitment to Afghanistan's economic development. This paper argues that Russia will most likely replicate standard industrialization development approaches in contributing to Afghanistan's development. Therefore, Russia will probably run into problems similar to those that led to the failure of the Soviet modernization project, which consisted of large-scale development projects that were inappropriate to the country's institutions and the lives of most Afghans. It is questionable whether such reiteration will induce economic development now, in the complex setting of a fragmented and fragile state with a multitude of external players looking out for their own interests.     

Reunification deadlocked: The United States,China and Taiwan

Abstract

Since the New China News Agency's release on March 15, 1949, of an editorial entitled “The Chinese People Are Determined to Liberate Taiwan,” that theme has been a cardinal principle of Peking's national policy. To appreciate fully the Chinese position, one must recognize not only Peking's claim that Taiwan is legally, ethnically, and historically an integral part of China, but also modern China's yeaming for national reunification and territorial integrity. On the ethnic question, China points to the fact that except for an extremely small number of aborigines, the inhabitants on the island today, including the so-called “native Taiwanese,” are of Chinese ancestry. They speak southeastern Chinese dialects and share with their compatriots on the mainland all the other basic Chinese cultural traits. Historically, as a Chinese spokesman once put it, “long before Christopher Columbus discovered America, the Chinese people were already in Taiwan. Long before the United States achieved its own independence, Taiwan had already become an inseparable part of the territory of China.” Although imperialist Japan occupied the island from 1895 to 1945, the island was returned to China in 1945 after Japan's surrender at the end of the Pacific War.     

美国与上海合作组织:认知、关系和未来

本文在阅读美国智库研究报告、学者论著及美国政府官方文件的基础上,考察了美国政府对上海合作组织的认知、政策及前景。文章认为,美国对上合组织的认知经历了一个从漠视到怀疑、重视的过程,其转折点是2005年上合组织阿斯塔纳峰会。美国对上合组织的政策也随之进行了一定的调整。美国国内主流观点认为,美国必须与上合组织积极接触、对话,防止它成为俄罗斯和中国主导中亚的工具。本文认为,客观上讲,由于美国与上合组织的关系直接影响双方在中亚的利益,因此双方有进行良性互动的必要;而双方在中亚的利益交汇也为良性互动提供了可能性。     

Ethno-religious dynamics and the emergence of the Hezbe Seri Itehad (Secret Unity Party) in Afghanistan in the late 1940s

The Afghanistani government's discriminatory policies against its ethno-religious minorities from the late nineteenth century to the end of World War II brought widespread resentment, which resulted in many local revolts. After the war, these took on a different dimension and led to the founding of an underground political party, Seri Itehad (Secret Unity). The party was different from the other political parties of the time because its goal was to foment an uprising to overthrow the monarchy and so establish a republic. This paper explores why and how the party emerged, and how the unique characteristics of the party's two co-founders, who had little in common in terms of socio-political and cultural backgrounds, shaped the aims, approach, organization, membership and operation of the party. It also examines the consequences of the uprising.     

The United States, Germany and France: Balancing Transatlantic Relations

Relations between the United States, France and Germany significantly determine the content and structure of the broader transatlantic relationship. Relations improved after the changes of government in Germany in 2005 and France in 2007, and they can be expected to improve further after the change of administration in the United States in 2009. Washington is likely to pay more attention to its European allies while these may become more involved in issues beyond Europe's borders. Sharing leadership will be the challenge for the United States, while bringing more intellectual and material input will be the challenge for the Europeans. At the same time, France and Germany will develop and maintain independent views. But if partnership is the aim on both sides of the Atlantic, a more promising relationship can be expected even where differences exist.     

远东地区:中国、俄罗斯、美国、日本的安全认知

近年来,远东地区在俄罗斯国家发展战略和对外战略中的地位出现了上升的趋势,这种变化源于对广义和狭义的远东地区的特殊政治经济条件的深入理解.本文指出,远东地区各大国的复杂的安全认知使得这一地区出现了理性国际格局形成的趋势和重新加强结盟以防范对手的趋势同时并存的局面.这种局面表明,远东地区真正的安全合作构架尚在萌芽状态之中.由此,各国一方面应警惕重返冷战旧辙的可能,另一方面更应看到经济上和政治上的互补性和交融性所展示的合作的机会.目前重要的问题是如何抓紧时机,使这一地区的内部发展和跨国合作能够进一步地形成互动.     

Mistaken Attribution: The United States and Inter-Korean Relations

The US-South Korea alliance has been one of the most successful relationships to be forged out of the Cold War era. Since the June 2000 inter-Korean summit, however, one area of consistent friction between the two countries has been over North-South relations. In this article, Victor Cha, associate professor of Government and D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair in the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, argues that a key dynamic at play is one of perception, involving errors of attribution. Allied complaints about the other are heard, but attempts to address these complaints are dismissed by the counterpart as having been determined by the situation rather than by volition--that is, disposition. This results in mutual frustration. Since the "axis of evil" appellation attached to North Korea by US president, George Bush, both sides have interpreted North Korean behavior as confirming their own convictions on how to proceed. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, the result has been a dichotomy in the way the two governments approach inter-Korean relations.     

美国与强制外交理论

20世纪60、70年代,美国学者最先将强制外交与威慑概念明确地区分开来,并对此展开专题研究。根据美国现有研究文献,本文阐述了强制外交的定义、效用及局限性,剖析了影响强制外交成败的因素,并对美国强制外交理论研究的现状和实质进行了评述。作者认为,分析影响强制外交成败的因素是美国学界研究的重点,旨在直接为政府的外交决策提供服务。美国是当今世界的强国,有机会和能力实施强制外交。由于美国未来可能会更多地运用强制外交,因而该专题理论研究将会得到进一步深化。