Hidden in plain sight: political opposition and hegemonic authoritarianism in Azerbaijan

This paper examines the consolidation and maintenance of hegemonic authoritarianism in post-Soviet Azerbaijan. Hegemonic regimes are characterized by their nearly total lack of political competition. Despite the presence of opposition parties and regular elections, the incumbent in these cases is reelected with 70% or more of the vote. What does it take to sustain overwhelming margins of victory in regular elections in the face of institutionalized opposition? Previous studies have suggested that either violent repression or institutionalized co-optation of opposition groups is central to securing long-term hegemonic regime stability. These mechanisms explain how rulers forestall potential opposition. Upon coming to power in 1993, however, Heydar Aliyev – like many post-Soviet leaders – inherited a genuine, existing opposition in the Popular Front movement. I suggest that in the presence of an intractable opposition, Azerbaijan's rulers have taken a different approach with regard to regime maintenance. Drawing on over 50 original interviews conducted during 6 months of field research, I identify the mechanisms by which the government has “hidden the opposition in plain sight” by making it effectively difficult for existing opposition groups to function as credible political parties. Since the mid-1990s, the Aliyev regime has used informal measures to prevent these groups from aggregating and articulating the diverse interests present in society from visibly competing in elections and from serving effectively in government to craft and implement policy. These practices have rendered the opposition technically legal, but completely ineffective. Besides weakening the opposition, these measures produce a series of mutually reinforcing effects – including noncompetitive elections by default and a politically disengaged society – that sustain long-term regime stability. The paper concludes by examining this argument in comparative perspective. Hegemonic regimes have proliferated in the post-Soviet region, and I suggest that this strategy is an important factor in sustaining many of these regimes.     

伊斯兰原教旨主义与马来西亚穆斯林妇女

伊斯兰原教旨主义推动了马来西亚社会和政治的伊斯兰化,并影响到马来穆斯林妇女的权利和地位.本文从分析伊斯兰原教旨主义妇女观入手,探讨马来西亚政府、政党、宗教部门和非政府组织如何从法律、法特瓦、政策、宣传来规范妇女的行为,并分析联邦政府与州政府、执政党与反对党、乌来玛与非政府组织围绕妇女权利展开的争论和斗争.     

Les députès du centre aux origines de la Troisième République française

SUMMARY

In this article Lothar Höbelt compares the political role of the Liberal parties in the Hohenzollern and Habsburg empires after 1867. Both started from a similar position, by granting a retrospective indemnity to their governments for their unconstitutional actions prior to 1866, in the expectation of reinstating constitutional government in which they would have an active role. The article then analyses the reasons why, by 1879 these expectations had been disappointed, but this led to different outcomes in the politics of the two empires. In the Hohenzollern empire, the Liberals eventually split permanently into a party of National Liberals, prepared to cooperate with government, and a progressive wing that tended to be in opposition. In the Habsburg empire, the Liberals remained united in a largely unsuccessful attempt to enforce parliamentary responsibility on the government. It is then shown how this outcome relates to the different ethnic and political structures of the two empires.     

Opposition politics in Malawi: hopeful signs amid the warnings

Across Africa, governments are either peacefully and legitimately ousted, or forced to share power, through the ballot box. In Malawi, the emergence of many political parties since the advent of a multiparty dispensation in 1993 signalled the flourishing of pluralism and opposition politics. However, in the May 2009 elections, the Malawi Congress Party and the United Democratic Front, which constituted the opposition, were largely rejected by the electorate in favour of President Bingu Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), credited for his sound economic policies emulated internationally. The reduced presence in parliament of parties outside of the Democratic Progressive Party coalition is troubling. This development has stimulated debate on the opposition's role and ability to defend democratic governance, and the challenges facing it. On the other hand, the DPP's landslide victory has to some degree demonstrated that it is possible to ‘de-regionalise’ and ‘de-ethinicise’ the configuration and alignment of political interests and forces, confirming for other African countries that the analysis of African politics need not be oversimplified into ethnic and cultural terms as is often the case. This paper contends that democratic governance is promoted by a credible opposition that effectively acts as an alternative government. Therefore, there is need for addressing the major factors that militate against its operations to enable it play its rightful role in Malawi's emerging democracy.     

Migration and Healthcare Reforms in Spain: Symbolic Politics,Converging Outputs,Oppositions from the Field

ABSTRACT

Migrants’ healthcare entitlement represents a conflictive issue in the political battlefield, with research pointing towards the determinant role of party politics in determining policy outputs. Addressing the 2012 healthcare reform and 2018 counter-reform adopted in Spain by a right-wing and left-wing government respectively and drawing on qualitative analysis of parties’ discourses and policy measures, we argue that ideological differences along the healthcare-migration nexus were overemphasised to play symbolic politics. Partisan competition had less impact on actual outputs, while clashes between the central and regional governments, path-dependent practices and opposition from multiple venues played a central role in the policymaking process.     

从组织行为模式看印尼大规模社交限制政策中的中央与地方关系

面对新冠肺炎疫情,印尼政府推出了大规模社交限制政策,其显著特点是中央和地方政府共同参与防疫.印尼地方政府在这项政策的出台与实施阶段扮演着怎样的角色?中央政府与地方政府间存在怎样的联动关系?这些都可以运用艾利森提出的政府决策组织行为模式进行分析.在大规模社交限制政策的出台与实施过程中,印尼中央政府各部门、中央政府与地方政府组织的行动均相互关联,各部门间存在显著的联动关系.这种联动关系的存在以及印尼的地方自治制度使地方政府可以通过变通执行、制定特殊政策、进行反馈等方式影响中央政府的政策内容及最终实施效果.随着地方自治制度下地方政府职能的加强,作为中央政府的基层组织,地方政府不再只是机械地执行中央政府政策的工具,而是所在地区社会服务的主要提供者.     

The Lost Sexenio: Vicente Fox and the New Politics of Economic Reform in Mexico

The 2000 presidential election of opposition candidate Vicente Fox signaled an end to seven decades of Mexico's single-party regime and seemed to herald the advent of truly competitive politics. But by 2003, economic reform had largely stalled, and Fox's party suffered a historically unprecedented midterm' loss in the congress. This article analyzes the underpinnings of policy gridlock in the Fox administration. Fox inherited the need for microeconomic restructuring and increased competitiveness, more innovative and pragmatic state policies, the need to pay attention to the country's sharp income inequalities, and the challenge of crafting a political strategy that could build a middle ground and foster policy consensus. With his party's minority standing in the congress, Fox was constrained from the start by divided government. But more effective statecraft and coalition building would have helped. These will be essential elements for the success of any post-Fox regime.     

Resisting the Fall: The Single Dominant Party,Policies and Elections in Malaysia

Before Malaysia’s 2013 general election, one of the few remaining dominant coalitions in the world was aware it would struggle to retain power. A fledgling opposition coalition had inspired public confidence of its capacity to competently rule while public discontent with the ruling party was rife due to the ubiquity of patronage that had prevented the responsible implementation of policies. However, regime change did not occur. How does the protracted rule of Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional coalition, and the hegemonic party in it, the United Malays National Organisation, relate to debates over authoritarian durability, during a period when dominant parties struggle to sustain power? Malaysian elections have been free enough that the opposition has been able to obtain and retain control of state governments, so why has Barisan Nasional not lost power? This article reviews the 2013 election examining three issues: the significance of coalition politics; how policies have shaped voting trends; and the growing monetisation of politics. These perspectives provide insights into the institutional structure of coalitions and their conduct of politics, including clientelistic practices, forms of mobilisation and governance and the outcomes of policies introduced to address socio-economic inequities and drive economic growth.     

Grassroots Bureaucracy: Intergovernmental Relations and Popular Mobilization in Brazil's AIDS Policy Sector

How does the state ensure the implementation of national policies in a context of decentralized political authority? This article identifies a new strategy utilized by national bureaucrats to regulate the behavior of subnational politicians: mobilizing civil society as government watchdog and political advocate. In the context of decentralized governance, in which local politicians administer most social sector programs, reform‐minded bureaucrats often find that they have little control over the implementation of their progressive policies. In Brazil's AIDS policy sector, however, bureaucrats have ensured the successful implementation of their policies by developing allies outside government. These state actors—here called activist bureaucrats—have been largely overlooked in the English‐language literature, yet they form a new layer of politics in Latin America.     

The Challenges of Transitioning from Opposition to Government: Liberal Party Planning for Government 1983 – 1996

Studies examining opposition transition to government processes and planning usually emphasise the responsibility of oppositions as a legislative institution and the role of party leaders. However, such approaches place too much emphasis on notions of responsible opposition and party leaders. They de‐emphasise the importance of partisan considerations that shape transition planning or how party organisations have attempted to assert control over parliamentary parties. Drawing on archival materials, policy documents, and elite interviews, this study examines both public and internal transition to government strategies undertaken by the Liberal Party of Australia during their opposition years (1983–1996). The paper finds that while party leaders became more important over time, the party organisation's involvement remained significant. The Liberal Party transition planning focused primarily on cabinet processes, Australian Public Service (APS) organisation, particularly the senior bureaucratic level, and selecting political staff. In so doing, the Liberal Party anticipated many of the Hawke government's 1987 reforms to the APS. The Liberal Party was motivated by its desire to restructure the machinery and culture of government and to allocate sufficient political staff resources to government. Its aim was to better equip the party to achieve its political and ideological goals when next in government.     

Agenda control in the Bundestag, 1980–2002

We find strong evidence of monopoly legislative agenda control by government parties in the Bundestag. First, the government parties have near-zero roll rates, while the opposition parties are often rolled over half the time. Second, only opposition parties' (and not government parties') roll rates increase with the distances of each party from the floor median. Third, almost all policy moves are towards the government coalition (the only exceptions occur during periods of divided government). Fourth, roll rates for government parties skyrocket when they fall into the opposition and roll rates for opposition parties plummet when they enter government, while policy movements go from being nearly 100 per cent rightward when there is a rightist government to 100 per cent leftward under a leftist government.     

The Policies and Politics of Control: Countering Argentina's Uniformed and Unemployed Protesters

Like many new democracies, Argentina has struggled with contentious movements that have challenged its precarious stability. Two very different sectors have led particularly powerful opposition movements: the military—associated historically with the abuse of power—and the unemployed workers, with important support from prestigious human rights organizations. This article looks both at how the political standing of the sector (military versus civil society) influences policy choices and at how these policy choices influence whether opposition movements remain mobilized and contentious. It argues that situation‐alleviating policies—those that successfully address interests of the sector as a whole—tend to be more successful in defusing contentious movements than policies relying on coercion, concessions, or co‐optation of mobilized opposition groups. Situation alleviation depletes the contentious groups of possible recruits, while policies targeting the mobilized opposition may inadvertently motivate those actors to remain mobilized.     

Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting for Incumbents under Democratic Backsliding: The Case of Honduras's Bono 10,000

As democracies worldwide have reverted to competitive authoritarian regimes or full dictatorships, some autocrats have used clientelist policies to strengthen their positions of power. We contend that autocrats can weaponise conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to shore up electoral support under democratic backsliding. In this vein, we analyse the impact of Honduras's Bono 10,000, a discretionary CCT, on the electoral support for the incumbent National Party and opposition blocs between 2013 and 2017, an era marked by the erosion of democracy. Using two survey waves from the AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), we show how the CCT boosted the electoral support for the National Party as democracy unravelled. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on how autocrats rely on carrots – not just sticks – to consolidate power.     

Poetry of witness: Uzbek identity and the response to Andijon

This article focuses on poetry written about the 13 May 2005 events in Andijon, Uzbekistan to examine how Uzbek identity is expressed in relation to the narrow nationalism of post-Soviet Uzbek state culture. While the Uzbek government insists the 13 May events were a justified retaliation against armed insurgents, the authors of the Andijon poems portray the episode as a brutal attack on innocent civilians by government forces. In so doing, they not only contradict the official state narrative, but challenge the legitimacy of the government's construction of Uzbek identity and nationhood. This article examines the content, language and distribution of the poems as well as the persecution and arrests of their authors. The cases of these dissident poets touch on a number of theoretical issues—among them nationalism, identity, authoritarianism and literary politics—which have risen to the fore as a result of the Andijon events.     

The Australian Right in the “Asian Century”: Inequality and Implications for Social Democracy

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the policy discourse of Australian right-wing governments, exploring how such governments have combined neo-liberal economic policies with social conservatism, populism, cultural nationalism and forms of authoritarianism. It also examines the resulting response of social democratic political parties. As a predominantly Western country situated in the Asia-Pacific region, Australian experience offers interesting insights into the domestic politics of right-wing governments facing the changing geo-political and geo-economic imperatives of the “Asian Century.” Conservative Australian governments have reasserted traditional Anglo-centric national identity and used competition from key Asian countries to further justify market-driven policies, reduced welfare benefits and reduced industrial relations standards. The social democratic Australian Labor Party has responded to right-wing government policy by placing an increased emphasis on challenging social and economic inequality. However, Labor’s own plans for equitable economic growth potentially underestimate the challenges posed by the intermeshing of the Australian and Asian economies and provide insights into the dilemmas that a changing geo-economics poses for Western social democracy more broadly. Meanwhile Australian conservatism is facing not just challenges from its social democratic opponent but also from far-right populist forces critical of globalisation.     

Social Policies and Center‐Right Governments in Argentina and Chile

Latin America's “left turn” expanded cash transfers and public services, contributing to lower poverty and inequality. Recently, right‐leaning candidates and parties have begun to win back seats in the legislature, and in some cases have captured the executive branch. This shift has sparked debate about the future of Latin America's welfare states. This article analyzes social policy reforms enacted by two recent right‐leaning governments: that of Sebastián Piñera in Chile (2010–14) and Mauricio Macri in Argentina (2015–). It finds that contrary to neoliberal adjustment policies of the past, neither Macri nor Piñera engaged in privatization or deep spending cuts. Instead, both administrations facilitated a process of policy drift in some sectors and marginal expansion in others. Policy legacies and the strength of the opposition help to explain these outcomes, suggesting that Latin America's political context has been transformed by the consolidation of democracy and the experience of left party rule.     

Policing the ‘suspects’: Ottoman Greeks and Armenians in Istanbul, 1914–18

During the First World War, a primary domestic political aim for all belligerent countries was to preserve the socio-economic status quo in order to provide appropriate conditions for the survival of the state. Therefore, war governments paid particular attention to the maintenance of internal order. While doing this, the central authority of governments became paramount and this situation had remarkable repercussions on state–society relations. This article examines the wartime public order policies of the Ottoman government specifically concerning the Ottoman Greeks (Rum) and Armenians living in Istanbul. During the Great War, these non-Muslim elements were officially regarded as ‘suspects’, in other words, as ‘potential political criminals’ threatening the internal order of the capital. To control the Ottoman Greeks and Armenians, the war government implemented a number of policing strategies that consisted of deportation of individuals and groups, strict control on travel, and close surveillance of ‘suspects’.     

The Fraser Government's “Uranium Decision” and the Foundations of Australian Non‐Proliferation Policy: A Reappraisal*

The Fraser era represents a defining moment in Australia's approach to the issues of uranium exports and non‐proliferation policy. In contrast to some well‐established positions in the literature, this essay argues that the Fraser government's August 1977 decision to approve the export of uranium was framed not only by domestic political considerations stemming from the Ranger Environmental Inquiry but also by important international factors. In particular, I argue that the non‐proliferation initiatives of the Carter administration presented the Fraser government with an opportunity to portray the export of Australian uranium as means to strengthen the non‐proliferation regime and enhance Australia's influence.     

The Changing Role of NGOs in Rural Chile After Democracy

Abstract — The article examines how NGOs in rural Chile operated during the dictatorship and how their role changed after the return of democracy. An NGO (OPDECH) in Southern Chile is used as a case study. During the Pinochet regime, NGOs maintained a critical distance from the government by creating a niche for opposition researchers and activists. They provided a possibility of economic survival for professionals whilst working on alternative proposals to address the socio-economic needs of the poor majority. External funding from international agencies provided much needed resources but created as well a culture of reliance and a clientelistic middle class of professionals. The NGO in Southern Chile became a nucleus of resistance and expertise on regional development by safekeeping democratic tradition and providing a range of solutions to local development problems. After the restoration of democratic government many professionals joined the government. NGOs exchanged their altruism for a more pragmatic, opportunistic and, in some cases, more efficient role as executors of government programmes. The case study in Southern Chile illustrates this trajectory well. After municipal elections a collaborative role with local government was sought by OPDECH that aimed to implement local initiatives as well as advise local and regional governments on environmental and developmental issues. Given the NGOs historical commitment to grassroots development, it remains to be seen what role they can play in supporting local government while forging a new role for themselves in a democratic context.     

Perceptions of State and Leadership in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan (1991–2009)

The focus of this paper is the shifting perceptions of the state, leadership and politics, and the shifting perceptions of Azerbaijanis themselves and the outside world. The information presented in this article is based on personal interviews conducted with leading and influential members of the Azerbaijani political elite in Baku in August 1998 and April 2009. Attitudes and norms concerning the state, leadership and politics emanate from three sources: the legacy of the pre-Soviet (Turkish) period, the Soviet period, and the circulation of western democratic values and norms. This reflects the impact of historical and cultural forces that have shaped the lives of the political elites and are manifested in their understanding of contemporary governance. A powerful state and a strong leader mutually reinforce each other where the leader is perceived as responsible for the well-being of its citizens. In this context, the article examines the conflicting narratives of the government and the opposition in Azerbaijan while reconstructing their national past and building their future, where their past becomes an important source for the mentality of governance in the country.