Political business cycles at the municipal level

The present article tests predictions of rational political business cycle models using a large and previously unexplored data set of Portuguese municipalities. This data allows for a clean test of these predictions due to the high level of detail on expenditure items, an exogenous fixed election schedule, and homogeneity of Portuguese local governments with respect to policy instruments and institutions. Estimation results clearly reveal the opportunistic behaviour of local governments. In pre-electoral periods, they increase total expenditures and change their composition favouring items that are highly visible to the electorate. This behaviour is consistent with an effort to signal competence and increase chances of re-election.     

毛泽东农民教育对军队基层政治教育的启示

在以移动互联网为特征的新时代环境里,思想政治教育工作却遇到了前所未有的挑战。这时应回到毛泽东农民教育思想中寻找破解思路:要运用科学的理论工具分析教育对象、要着力为官兵解决真实而关键的问题、要进入基层官兵的生活境域、要依托高效的新兴渗透载体。     

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level

This paper develops new fundamental models for forecasting presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level using fundamental data. Despite the fact that our models can be used to make forecasts of elections earlier than existing models and they do not use data from polls on voting intentions, our models have lower out-of-sample forecasting errors than existing models. Our models also provide early and accurate probabilities of victory. We obtain this accuracy by constructing new methods of incorporating various economic and political indicators into forecasting models. We also obtain new results about the relative importance of approval ratings, economic indicators, and midterm effects in the different types of races, how economic data can be most meaningfully incorporated in forecasting models, the effects of different types of candidate experience on election outcomes, and that second quarter data is as predictive of election outcomes as third quarter data.     

刘少奇对建设马克思主义学习型政党的理论贡献

刘少奇作为中共中央第一代领导集体中最重要的成员之一,为建设马克思主义学习型政党做出了宝贵的理论贡献.主要是:发表<论共产党员的修养>,深入阐发毛泽东关于"中国党的马克思主义的修养"命题;在<答宋亮同志>和<清算党内的孟什维主义>等著作中,比较集中地分析了党的理论准备不足等情况,力促全党加强马列主义理论的学习;在党的七大及此后的近20年间,从多方面阐述了与建设马克思主义学习型政党相关的一系列思想.     

浅谈当前形势下的高校学生心理教育

大学阶段是人生的重要转折时期，大学生在对自身状况、学习环境、对社会环境的认识水平和评价水平等方面都发生了较大的变化，特别是当前社会竞争的日益激烈，生活节奏的加快，使大学生心理日趋复杂，在他们的学习、社交、恋爱、择业等生活领域出现各种心理问题，影响他们的心理健康发展。有专家指出，今后对大学生困扰危害最大的将是心理疾患。因此，加强高校学生的心理教育意义重大。     

The Model of Europe and Other Contributions to the Study of European Political Development

Flora, P., Kuhnle, S. and Urwin D. (1999) State Formation, Nation-Building, and Mass Politics in Europe: The Theory of Stein Rokkan . Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bartolini, S. (2000) The Political Mobilization of the European Left, 1860–1980: The Class Cleavage . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Caramani, D. (2004) The Nationalization of Politics: The Formation of National Electorates and Party Systems in Western Europe . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Bartolini, S. (2005) Restructuring Europe: Centre Formation, System Building, and Political Structuring between the Nation State and the European Union . Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ferrera, M. (2005) The Boundaries of Welfare: European Integration and the New Spatial Politics of Social Protection . Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bozo, F. (2001) Two Strategies for Europe: De Gaulle, the United States, and the Atlantic Alliance . Lanham MD: Rowman & Littlefield.     

An Organization of the Theoretical Perspectives in the Field of Civic and Political Participation: Contributions to Citizenship Education

This article provides a review of the theoretical perspectives on civic and political participation. Four distinct views were identified in the literature: (a) The orthodox view: “Civic and political participation are always positive”; (b) The broad view: “Civic and political participation are multidimensional”; (c) The qualitative view: “Civic and political participation are not always good”; and (d) The nonconformist view: “The need to redeem the political dimension of participation.” This article intends to sophisticate simplistic assumptions about civic and political participation and to provide an original organization of the theoretical perspectives in this field. Based on this analysis, this article presents suggestions for an alternative approach to citizenship education.     

The economic theory of regulation and trucking deregulation: Shifting to the state level

Federal deregulation of the trucking industry in 1980 created a general gain in economic welfare at the expense of the monopoly rents of powerful interests, leading some scholars to ponder the limitations of the economic theory of regulation. However, analyzing only the federal changes excludes evidence from the significant intrastate sector of the trucking industry, regulation of which remains largely unchanged from that prior to 1980. This paper argues that after a decade of clear federal policy success, truckers continue to capture most state regulators, sustaining monopoly rents in what would otherwise be an inherently competitive industry. Using data from the fifty states, we demonstrate the extent to which the economic theory is in fact consistent with trucking industry evidence.     

高校后勤实体应加强对财务管理重要性的认识

通过几年后勤社会化改革，高校后勤实体的经营机制与管理体制逐步向符合社会主义市场经济体制转变。高校后勘实体各项管理工作的优劣成败，最终都会在财务结果上体现出来。财务管理在高校后勤实体管理中具有重要的作用和意义。文章认为高校后勤实体的经营管理者应加强财务管理重要性的认识，并对通过财务管理来有效提高高校后勤管理的效能提出了措施和建议。     

Political economy of FDI and economic growth in China: A longitudinal test at provincial level

This study asks two central questions: (1) how we can explain the dynamic relationships between economic growth and FDI distributions at national and regional levels; (2) what determines Chinese rapid economic growth and unprecedented volume of FDI at national and regional levels. Two empirical models are developed to test the two main hypotheses of FDI-led growth model and growth-driven FDI model based on time-series and cross-provincial data of 174 observations (29 provinces for 6 years, 1995–2000). The results confirm main findings of earlier studies on the links between FDI and economic growth in China, but disapprove the impact of human capital, historical, and geographical conditions on FDI distributions in the regions during the research period.     

Political action of immigrants in the Netherlands: class or ethnicity?

Abstract. The political action of immigrant ethnic minorities in the Netherlands is examined in an attempt to assess the relevance of the neo-Marxist theory of the British sociologists Miles and Phizacklea, who identify three processes of political action: the black unity process, the class unity process and the ethnic organisation process. On the basis of available evidence from the Dutch case it is argued that in present circumstances neither black unity nor class unity are very likely, and that immigrants are likely to adopt an ethnic organisation perspective. Such a perspective is not due to racial exclusion within the working class. This conclusion differs from that of Miles and Phizacklea. It is shown that the theory applies to societies in which classes or class fractions can be clearly identified, but less to societies of another type such as the Dutch. Moreover, it is shown that Miles and Phizacklea tend to overemphasise the effects of native white racism on immigrant political action and neglect the dynamics of ethnicity and its mobilising force.     

高等教育管理须在新高度上发展

高校教育管理工作,是高校生存与发展的生命线,因此,提升其管理水平势在必行。     

Disaffected democrats: Political attitudes and political action in Portugal

Three decades after the fall of the Portuguese authoritarian regime, support for democracy has become widespread among the mass public. However, similarities between Portugal and other more established democracies should not be overestimated. In most of the latter, several studies have found increasing political and civic activism on the part of pro-democratic and politically sophisticated citizens, who are nevertheless increasingly dissatisfied with democratic performance. However, the most prevalent and consequential attitudinal-behavioural syndrome in Portugal is less one of ‘democratic dissatisfaction’ than one of ‘democratic disaffection’, entailing low levels of political engagement and participation.     

Bowling the state back in: Political institutions and the creation of social capital

Abstract. While some studies have revealed that social capital is shaped within civil society, the role of political institutions in forming social capital has not yet been clearly shown. This article, therefore, tries to evaluate the politico-institutional foundations of social capital measured in terms of associational life in Switzerland. The purpose is to apply Putnam's method of comparing subsystems to the Swiss cantons. The empirical analyses show that government structures are strongly associated with social capital. More specifically, the availability of direct democracy promotes a lively associational life. In addition, consensus democracy and decentralized political structures contribute to social capital. In this vein, the access points of the politico-institutional structure constitute a feasible 'top-down' path to breaking out of the vicious circle of distrust, disengagement and weak democracy.     

Strategic responses to institutional change: Parties,committees and multiple referral

Public Choice - Although multiple referral seems to remove committees' gatekeeping power, strategic opportunities exist for motivated committees to dominate late stages of the legislative...     

Political Participation and Civic Courage: The Negative Effect of Transparency on Making Small Campaign Contributions

This study assesses whether public disclosure of campaign contributions affects citizens’ willingness to give money to candidates. In the American states, campaign finance laws require disclosure of private information for contributors at relatively low thresholds ranging from $1 to $300. The Internet has made it relatively easy to publicize such information in a way that changes the social context for political participation. Drawing on social influence theory, the analysis suggests that citizens are sensitive to divulging private information, especially those who are surrounded by people with different political views. Using experimental data from the 2011 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, it demonstrates how individuals refrain from making small campaign contributions or reduce their donations to avoid disclosing their identities. The conclusion discusses the implications of transparency laws for political participation, especially for small donors.     

Participation and voting in committees: Evidence from the ILO

Although many international organisations are formally built on the principle of ‘one country–one vote’, the lack of representativeness in decision-making may give a subgroup of members disproportionate influence. Using data on participation and voting in 51 decision-making committees of the International Labour Organization (ILO), we do find a bias in voting outcomes due to committee composition. Recent theoretical research has argued that voters with extreme preferences may self-select into committees. A procedure is proposed to test for this prediction. There is no indication that governments with extreme preferences are drawn disproportionately into ILO committees.