The median voter hypothesis: Evidence from general purpose local governments

The median voter hypothesis (MVH) represents a much-used as well as much-criticized tool in the hands of public finance economists. To evaluate the MVH, this paper applies the Cox specification test using data from general purpose municipal governments. The Cox test allows for possible simultaneous rejection of the MVH and all tested models, thus providing stricter criteria than applied to date in empirical MVH analyses. The test results reveal that the MVH is appropriate for explaining the aggregate behavior of municipal governments, but not specific services. Further, the single service and single tax base assumptions are not critical to the empirical MVH performance.     

China's Local Political Budget Cycles

This article examines the political budget cycles in Chinese counties. The shift to a more performance-based cadre evaluation and mobility system during the reform era has created an incentive structure for local leaders to increase government spending at strategically important time points during their tenure to enhance the prospect of official promotion. Such expenditures help local leaders to impress their superiors with economic and political achievements, especially those visible and quantifiable large-scale development projects. At the same time, economic and fiscal decentralization increased the capacity of local leaders to influence government budget expenditures as the need rises. The hypothesized curvilinear relationship between a leader's time in office and increased spending was tested using a comprehensive data set of all Chinese counties from 1997 through 2002. The panel data analysis shows that growth in local government spending per capita is the fastest during a leader's third and fourth years in office.     

Does the Charter Form Improve the Fiscal Health of Counties?

The public administration literature has paid attention to the relationship between the structure of a government and its ability to provide public services, reflected by its fiscal health. Although this literature has provided a useful understanding of government structures, it has largely ignored the charter form of government. As a formal written document that grants counties the power of self‐governance, a charter frees the county from state control. Included in this freedom is the ability to establish its own tax policies and services. In this article, the effects of charter adoption on fiscal health are tested using Florida county data from 1980 to 2012. The results show that the presence of a charter can improve the fiscal health of a county, which, in turn, can affect overall service provision.     

Examining Factors that Impact Mississippi Counties' Unreserved Fund Balance during Relative Resource Abundance and Relative Resource Scarcity

Although using some of the same organizational and financial factors examined by prior researchers to build and test models that explain factors influencing change in the general fund unreserved balance for smaller, rural, and less affluent counties in Mississippi, the rationale of this study is to build additional support that applying the recommended 5–15 percent savings benchmark across all jurisdictions is not a sufficient guide. Overall, Mississippi counties maintain unreserved fund balances ranging from a negative balance to over one hundred percent of their current expenditures. Counties also increase reserves during times of relative resource abundance and decrease them during relative resource scarcity. Moreover, they tend to address short‐term needs and resident demands when revenues are plentiful. During relative resource scarcity, however, they are more cost‐conscious and focus on maintaining rather than expanding current expenditures. This research shows that counties using the Beat system, a political form of government, are more likely to behave more frugally than counties using a Unit system, an administrative form of government.     

Comparative Fiscal Analysis for Counties

This article describes the implementation and use of a decision support system designed to conduct cross-sectional analyses of local government finances. A hypothetical situation using actual data from Illinois counties is constructed to illustrate the uses of the system. It is argued that the incorporation of this type of information, in conjunction with other local data, may lend additional capacity in resource allocation and policy formation at both the state and local levels of government.     

The Geography of Repression and Opposition to Autocracy

State repression is a prominent feature of nondemocracies, but its effectiveness in quieting dissent and fostering regime survival remains unclear. We exploit the location of military bases before the coup that brought Augusto Pinochet to power in Chile in 1973, which is uncorrelated to precoup electoral outcomes, and show that counties near these bases experienced more killings and forced disappearances at the hands of the government during the dictatorship. Our main result is that residents of counties close to military bases both registered to vote and voted “No” to Pinochet's continuation in power at higher rates in the crucial 1988 plebiscite that bolstered the democratic transition. Potential mechanisms include informational frictions on the intensity of repression in counties far from bases and shifts in preferences caused by increased proximity to the events. Election outcomes after democratization show no lasting change in political preferences.     

Strengthening Local Government Leadership and Performance: Reexamining and Updating the Winter Commission Goals

The Winter Commission report of 1993 stressed cities with the mayor‐council form of government and emphasized removing barriers to executive authority in large cities. In order to assess and update the report, it is important to recognize that a majority of cities with populations over 100,000 use the council‐manager form, in which restrictions on the executive and fragmented authority are unlikely to be present because of the constitutional principles on which the form is based. There has been progress toward improved leadership in both forms of government and substantial management change, including the incorporation of reinventing government and e‐government practices, and large counties are more likely to have an elected or appointed executive. An emerging issue not considered by the commission but in line with its purpose is the increasing challenge of governing expanding metropolitan and megapolitan regions.     

County Government Structural Reform: Influence of State, Region, and Urbanization

This article analyzes the influence of state, region, and urbanizationon adoption of comity government structural reform, exemplifiedby charter adoption, appointment of county administrators, andelection of executives. It examines3, 119 counties on whichdata were available, emphasizing the 786 counties with appointedadministrators, 382 with elected executives, and 117 with charters.These three structural reforms were correlated with urbanizationas measured by three variables for counties nationwide: populationsize, population growth, and per capita income. The reformsalso were examined by U.S. Census regions and subregions. Theneach reform was adjusted to assess the influence of one or afew stales where a given reform was slate-imposed or almostuniversally adopted. For each reform, urbanization was a keyfactor in explaining adoption. Region offered little explanation.The stale also emerged as an important variable     

Performance Measurement in U.S. Counties: Capacity for Reform

This study examines the capacity of U.S. counties to undertake performance measurement. Based on a national survey of counties with populations over 50,000, the authors address the following questions: To what extent do counties implement performance measurement? Which capacities must be present for different levels of implementation and success? What can counties do to increase their capacity for performance measurement? And, what is the effect of county structure and functions on the use of performance measurement? This study finds that the success of performance measurement is greatly affected by counties' underlying organizational capacities.     

“强县扩权”体制改革的文本分析

在发展县域经济的原动力下，我国诸多省份相继出台政策推行“扩大县（市）经济社会管理权限”改革，赋予县级政府地市级的经济社会管理权限，减少行政层级，成为探索“省直管县（市）体制”的又一路径和研究热点。通过分析各地政策文本中关于时间进程、改革目标、改革原则、改革内容、扩权方式与类型以及相应的配套措施等内容可以发现，由于“示范效应”的存在，各地在改革目标、改革原则、改革内容和扩权方式等方面存在着较大的共性，只有部分省份因地制宜地提出了有省情特征的改革举措，说明此项改革目前仍处于探索阶段，还有较大的完善空间。     

Volunteer Involvement in Local Government after September 11: The Continuing Question of Capacity

The 1990s witnessed extensive promotion of volunteerism and the creation of a federal and state infrastructure to support government voluntary activities. What has been the impact on local governments? This article reports on a 2003 survey of volunteer involvement in Georgia local government, which followed a similar 1990 study and provides a rare opportunity to examine long‐term trends in public volunteerism. Volunteerism in Georgia cities and counties has increased during the past decade, with 81 percent of all jurisdictions now reporting some volunteer engagement. The events of September 11, 2001, have had a small but generally positive effect on volunteer utilization. However, political and labor resistance to government volunteers has not been resolved. And the increase in public managers' concerns that they lack the funding or staff to utilize volunteers suggests that governmental capacity remains the principal obstacle to greater volunteer involvement in local governments.     

A Race to the Bottom? Exploring County Spending Shortfalls under Welfare Reform in North Carolina

North Carolina's experiment with local control of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families programs provides a unique example of the budget implications of state to local government policy devolution. County‐level expenditure data indicate that after state to local government devolution, only 45 of 100 counties met welfare maintenance of effort (MOE) budget requirements. Several important factors, including control over program eligibility and benefit levels, were significantly associated with MOE spending variation. Counties given more flexibility spent dramatically less than others. Many failed to meet MOE requirements without penalty, year after year. These issues raise serious questions about decentralization from both the budget and policy perspectives.     

City and County Budget Presentations in Texas: The Current State of the Art

This study looks at the budget preparation process by examining different experiences of Texas cities and counties. It begins with a review of concerns shared by many in budgeting. Then it outlines the Government Finance Officers' Association criteria used to examine the budgets. Finally, budgets from the different Texas government entities are examined and compared.     

Decentralized education spending and regional disparities: Evidence from Chinese counties 1997–2001

Chinese fiscal reforms in the past decade have recentralized government revenues, making lower governments more dependent on central and provincial funds. At the same time, decentralization in spending has obliged the county governments to take primary responsibility for financing compulsory education. That vertical imbalance can lead to widening regional gap in education if the central government does not carry out effective redistributive fiscal transfers. This paper examines a data set that includes all the counties of mainland China from 1997 through 2001 and finds that regional economic and budgetary disparities did carry over to education spending. The author would like to thank Professor Alice Cooper and the anonymous reviewers for invaluable suggestions.     

Does fiscal decentralization constrain Leviathan? New evidence from local property tax competition

This paper reexamines whether fiscal decentralization constrains Leviathan government. Using panel data for Pennsylvania, we compare actual property tax rates to the Leviathan revenue-maximizing rates for municipalities, school districts, and counties. Using spatial econometric methods we also estimate the degree of spatial dependence at the three levels of local government. We find that fiscal decentralization results in stronger intergovernmental competition and lower tax rates. We also find evidence of collusion among school districts that exhibit high interdependence but also high tax rates. This calls into question the current literature??s blind use of spatial dependence as a measure of intergovernmental competition.     

Not again! Public perception,regulation, and nanotechnology

It is often argued that immediate government action regarding nanotechnology is needed to ensure that public opinion does not mistakenly view nanotechnology as dangerous, to restore public trust in government, and to increase the legitimacy of government action through increased public participation. This article questions whether governments can achieve these goals. As the world lurches toward regulation of nanotechnology, we should ask Why the rush? Can anticipatory action, perceived as the government doing something, fulfill the competing hopes to “restore trust,”“pave the way” for nanotechnology, “increase awareness,” and “satisfy democratic notions of accountability”? Or is government action more likely to increase existing divisions over nanotechnology's future?     

Encouraging Local Compliance with Federal Civil Rights Laws: Field Experiments with the National Voter Registration Act

Can state officials increase local officials’ compliance with an important federal civil rights law with subtle interventions? The National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (NVRA) requires voter registration services at certain government agencies, but many counties fail to comply with the act. Working with officials in two states, the authors conducted field experiments to determine whether two methods commonly used by state officials increase compliance with the NVRA. Findings show that although the effects of the methods on output were sizable relative to recent performance, agency performance remained poor overall, with many offices continuing their history of registering no voters. The authors also discovered that gains in performance were largest for the offices that had performed best in the past. These findings suggest that while subtle interventions by state officials can produce increased compliance, stronger tactics may be needed to secure implementation of this federal law by local government agents.     

瓦格纳定律之英国实证检验及其对中国公共财政建设的启示——新公共管理运动背景下的探索

新公共管理运动的兴起,从理论上看财政规模弱化不可避免。英国作为新公共管理运动的发源国之一,其行政管理改革充分贯穿和系统展现了新公共管理理念的精髓。以英国新公共管理运动以来(1979—2006)的财政数据为依据,对瓦格纳定律进行实证检验,具有显著的代表意义。根据英国财政数据的研究结果与新公共管理理念高度吻合,表明瓦格纳定律在英国的适应期已经结束。有理由认为,只要推行新公共管理运动,瓦格纳定律就难以得到支持。鉴于新公共管理运动的世界性,及其不断推进的必然性,应当重新审视瓦格纳定律的客观性。有鉴于此,中国应该顺应世界新公共管理运动的潮流,立足于中国现实和中国社会经济转型的发展趋势,本着服务型政府的内在要求,适时调整财政政策。     

地方政府信用影响因素及影响机理研究——基于116个县级行政区域的调查

信任危机是最深刻的危机,如何提升政府信用水平,重塑政府公信力是政府和学术界面临的共同问题。在对信用与信任两个概念进行严格区分,并对政府信用内涵进行清晰界定之后,根据以往研究成果,文章提出了公务员素质、政府能力、制度环境及信用文化对地方政府信用影响的四个假设,进而构建了地方政府信用影响机理的概念模型。在对我国116个县级行政区域问卷调查的基础上,运用回归分析和路径分析等方法首次定量考察了公务员素质、政府能力、制度环境及信用文化四个变量对作为公共主体的地方政府的信用水平的影响强度、影响路径。结果表明,制度环境对地方政府信用的影响最强,影响路径最为复杂。信用文化、政府能力、公务员素质对政府信用的影响依次减弱,且公务员素质只能通过政府能力间接影响政府信用。因此,在信用政府建设过程中,需要重点优化地方制度环境并加强信用文化建设,同时也要积极提高政府能力和公务员队伍素质。     

The Impact of Housing Submarkets and Urban Form on the Foreclosure Crisis in U.S. Urban Counties

In this article, the authors introduce a novel way to define and measure housing submarkets in relation to foreclosures. Instead of the traditional methods of identifying submarkets a priori, this study uses an approach that empirically delineates housing submarkets based on spatial contiguity and housing attributes. The spatial clustering algorithm developed for this study identified submarkets in each of the urban counties. A spatial regression model was then used to assess the impact of submarket structure on foreclosure rates. In addition, the study also incorporates a measure of sprawl in its analysis. It was found that sprawling counties are not more likely to have higher rates of foreclosures compared with average rates. However, the counties with smaller and more fragmented housing submarkets are likely to have lower rates of foreclosures. The results suggest that urban form is less consequential than housing market structure in affecting U.S. housing market dynamics.