美韩同盟与未来中韩关系的战略框架

随着中韩关系特别是政治安全关系的发展,中韩关系与美韩同盟之间的矛盾可能更加突出。美国一直对中韩关系的发展保持警惕,而韩国则坚持以美韩同盟为其外交安保政策的基石,这些都是提升中韩关系的深层次挑战。中韩关系要摆脱美国因素是不可能的,未来中韩关系的战略框架也必须与中美韩多边关系框架,甚至是整个半岛的地缘政治框架结合在一起考虑。而且,为了在中美韩博弈中占得先机,中国必须对这种未来战略框架进行前瞻性的规划和设计。本文认为,出于中国及地区整体利益的考虑,半岛的未来既要摆脱基于冷战经验的对抗式两极格局,也不能寄希望于那种多极均势下的脆弱和平。从长远来看,只有包括所有各方在内的地区集体安全机制才是稳定与和平的长久保障。美韩同盟可以成为这一机制的起点但又必须被超越,这就需要相关各方就此达成战略妥协,就地区未来做出彼此可以接受的决定。考虑到中美间的深层次不信任,韩国应该在中美间发挥沟通者而不是均衡者也不是中立者的作用,未来中韩关系应该在这种新背景下予以重新设计和发展。     

The political economy of the dollar and the yen in East Asia

From the early 1980s until 1997 large amounts of Japan's current account dollar surplus were invested in U.S. Treasury securities. This economic relationship developed into an “alliance” sustained by the economic policies of U.S. and Japanese authorities. The U.S.-Japanese alliance indirectly promoted East Asian export-led growth during 1985–95. However, policies associated with the U.S.-Japanese alliance also contributed significantly to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. During the past years Japan has launched a number of initiatives for aid and regional monetary co-operation with the aim of internationalising the yen and redirecting regional current account surplus flows to go within the region, rather than being invested in the United States. The article assesses the viability of this regional challenge to U.S. monetary hegemony.     

Cooperative Hegemony and Summitry in the Americas

As an instrument for governance, summitry is a novel structure for the management of contemporary hemispheric regionalism in the Americas. Such regionalism is a clear case of the "structuralist paradox" of international cooperation. This article attempts to explain the particular asymmetric regionalism in the Americas by using the concept of cooperative hegemony. The underlying hypothesis is that the U.S. government, since 1994, has pursued a strategy of cooperative behavior, at least in regard to power sharing, in two specific phases of hemispheric regionalism: agenda setting and institutionalization. This study tests the hypothesis through a content analysis of the main documents produced at the Miami, Santiago, and Quebec summits, then relates these findings to the progress of institutionalization from 1994 to 2003.     

An Illusion of Omnipotence: U.S. Policy Toward Guatemala, 1954–1960

Based primarily on declassified U. S. government documents, this study analyzes the U. S. effort to build a "showcase for democracy" in Guatemala following the U. S. -engineered regime change of 1954. The effort was doomed, for the U.S. government lacked both unity of purpose and the necessary continuous commitment at the top. The documents also demonstrate limited consideration of the sociopolitical constraints that U. S. policy objectives would face. This is clear from examining three key U. S. objectives: to eliminate the "communist threat"; to create a stable, legitimate, democratic government; and to develop a free, independent labor movement. Domination and the limits of power are equally central to understanding the relationship between the Eisenhower administration and Guatemala, a case study that also has more general utility.     

U.S. and Japan’s trends in attitudes toward the Korean peninsula

This article argues that Japan would not only be concerned about the creation of a united Korea, which could be a serious economic and political rival in her own backyard, but would actively fear the prospect of the extension of Chinese or Russian military influence to the Straits of Tsushima through a Korean regime that leaned towards either of these powers. For the U.S., too, while there might be political advantages in the appearance of a serious economic rival to Japan, these would be greatly outweighed by the possibility of the same extension of Chinese or Russian military influence feared by Japan. This is evident in the strategic, economic, and diplomatic objectives and interests of the powers in the peninsula. This article concludes that the coexistence of the two Koreas will be not only inevitable for the time being, but ultimately desirable for the external powers.     

The Role of the Inter‐American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD): Confronting the Problem of Illegal Drugs in the Americas

The illegal drug trade has become a serious threat for the Americas. Is a multilateral approach to combat it possible? This article proposes that the United States and Latin America are finding ways to use multilateral organisms to confront this threat and examines as an example the role of CICAD in setting a cooperative agenda to develop an antidrug regime. CICAD has established common ground for long‐term cooperation in certain areas. But common drug strategies in the Americas require the support of the United States and the cooperation of Latin American states, both of which are still works in progress. Therefore the future of the CICAD‐inspired antidrug regime will depend on whether the United States and Latin America will cooperate to define the illegal drug threat in the same way and bestow on CICAD the authority necessary to address it.     

Equality and Regional Finance in the Americas

This article explores competing definitions of equality embedded in contending visions for regional finance in the Americas. The U.S. free market–oriented project envisions extension of a NAFTA‐like regulatory framework hemispherewide, promising Latin Americans better financial services, credit, and investment in exchange for strong financial property protections and (implicitly) dramatically reduced financial policy autonomy for their governments. Venezuela's vision of “Bolivarian” finance, exported to the Caribbean and the upper Andes, promotes assertive state management of both foreign and domestic investors, populist redistribution, and increasing reliance on nonmarket financial transactions. Brazil's regional financial project would unite South America through continentwide physical infrastructure and capitalist financial markets while retaining a role for public sector banks responsive to central government priorities. Brazil's approach shares with Venezuela's an emphasis on governments' need for financial policy authority and with the U.S. approach a concern for regulatory predictability and financial deepening.     

Radical Neglect? The “War on Terror” and Latin America

The rise of leftist governments in the Americas and the adoption of policy initiatives contrary to U.S. interests highlight a disconnect in interamerican relations, which cannot be understood simply as U.S. "neglect" of Latin America. In contrast to arguments that attribute the deteriorating relations to U.S. preoccupation with the Middle East, the article examines whether the "War on Terror" acted as a guiding paradigm for the George W. Bush administration in Latin America. Opposition to this "War on Terror" paradigm was evident following Colombia's 2008 air strike in Ecuador. Justified as a preemptive strike against a terrorist threat, Colombia's action met regional condemnation. The article argues that this Colombia-Latin America division reflects a larger geostrategic disconnect, whereby the "War on Terror" is challenged, causing the increasing marginalization of Washington and resistance to U.S. policy.     

An American view: U.S. Relations with the PRC and Taiwan

Since Tiananmen in June of 1989 when U.S.-Chinese relations hit rock-bottom, the United States and China have gradually expanded and improved their relationship on the basis of reality, not wishful thinking and hype. At the same time, U.S. and Taiwan relations have substantially improved while China and Taiwan themselves have created a new atmosphere of economic cooperation. The new U.S.-China relationship based on human rights, nonproliferation, and trade reciprocity could bring greater stability but the United States must be on top of the emerging regional economic powerhouse of Taiwan-South China-Hong Kong and not be distracted by peripheral issues such as conditional MFN.     

Political Parties,Australia and the U.S. Alliance: 1976-2016

ABSTRACT

What causes variation in the foreign policies of U.S. allies regarding their desired U.S. military role in their region and their troop commitments to U.S. military interventions? This paper addresses this question through documenting and explaining the sources of variation in Australia’s foreign policies regarding these issues over four decades. Treating the two major political parties in Australia and their respective leaders who self-select into them as endogenous, the paper argues that Australian foreign policy, whilst always supportive of the U.S. alliance, has systematically varied. This variation has correlated with the political party in power while the late Cold War and post-Cold War balances of power remained constant. While the Labor party has only been willing to send combat troops to large U.S. military interventions when the latter have a supporting United Nations Security Council Resolution, the conservative Liberal party has been willing to military intervene without this multilateral support. The Labor party, unlike the Liberal party, has also frequently proposed the formation and consolidation of multilateral regional institutions. These preferences render the U.S. to have been necessary for the Labor Party but sufficient for the Liberal party. Future Sino-U.S. armed conflict would provide a harder test of these hypotheses.     

U.S. hegemony and Southeast Asia

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent “war on terror,” have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.     

东盟在美国亚太战略中的地位及布什政府的东盟政策

在美国的对外战略中,东南亚是放在东亚的整体范围内进行考虑的,美国的东南亚政策是美国亚太战略的一个组成部分。本文从经济、政治、安全和区域合作四方面分析了东盟在美国亚太战略中的地位和作用,并介绍了布什政府上台后特别是“9·11”事件后美国东盟政策的变化。     

中美关系和亚太地区的“双领导体制”

21世纪初以来,中美关系和亚太地区国际关系均发生了重大变化。随着综合国力的日益增强,中国在国际经济、贸易和金融领域中开始发挥领头羊的作用。与此同时,美国作为全球范围内唯一的超级大国,在军事、安全及政治领域仍然发挥着决定性的领导作用。中美两国在亚太地区不同领域中分别发挥领导作用的现象,即本文所说的"双领导体制"。这一"双领导体制"不仅建立了中美两国在特定领域内优势互补的发展模式,也将在一定程度上确保亚太地区在未来相当长时期内的稳定与发展。     

Peter Gowan's “American grand strategy”

While this article broadly agrees with Peter Gowan's concern about the new militarism of the United States and the appalling consequences that have emerged as a result of U.S. preemption in Iraq, it questions the extent to which his portrait of U.S. hegemony addresses all the relevant issues as they affect the Asian region. Given the numerical dominance of Asia in world population and the rising power of China and India, how Gowan's “American Grand Strategy” applies to this part of the world is of fundamental importance to the relevance and sustainability of his argument. Part 1 on U.S. economic hegemony argues that U.S. capital has not been an unmitigated evil for India and where U.S. interests have been damaging they are not uniquely so: the European Union's economic policies have also been deeply damaging even though Europe is not a hegemon. Part 2 on U.S. political hegemony argues that bringing Pakistan and India into the U.S. alliance system has been beneficial for regional security and domestic political-ethnic stability. Part 3 considers responses to U.S. hegemony, arguing that this supremacy is more fragile than Gowan assumes because new powers, such as China and India, have long-term strategies to reduce their dependency. The conclusion suggests that despite widespread criticism and dissatisfaction with the nature of U.S. engagement in Asia, the dominant view in the region is one that sees the United States as a useful wedge between the emerging interests of China, India, and Japan. In short, the “American Grand Strategy” is not as negative, overwhelming, or as unpopular as Gowan suggests.     

U.S. responses to the Tiananmen and Kwangju incidents: American relations with China and Korea

This article focuses upon American relations with China and Korea through a comparative exploration of U.S. responses to the 1989 Tiananmen and 1980 Kwangju incidents. The thesis contends that U.S. policy towards both countries was founded primarily upon security and economic interests and was often obscured by a lack of understanding of these nations’ internal affairs, history, and culture. Although these factors exist in U.S. relations with the two countries, the United States places greater importance upon China than Korea, a situation that does not necessarily benefit Americans.     

The US–China Relationship and Asia-Pacific Security: Negotiating Change

Abstract

The crucial determinant of Asia-Pacific security is whether the U.S. and China can negotiate their relationship and their relative positions and roles in such a way as to produce sustainable regional stability. This paper examines three alternative scenarios of negotiating Sino-American coexistence: (I) The maintenance of the status quo of U.S. strategic dominance over the region, which China does not challenge; (II) negotiated change, by which the two powers coordinate to manage a more fundamental structural transformation; and (III) power transition, in which there is a significant structural shift in the regional system as a rising China challenges U.S. dominance, with a range of possible outcomes.     

Clerics, Exiles, and Academics: Opposition to the Brazilian Military Dictatorship in the United States, 1969–1974

Virtually no one in the United States raised objections to the 1964 military takeover of the Brazilian civilian government. In the early 1970s, however, the Brazilian regime had become associated with torture and the arbitrary rule of law. By the end of that decade, compliance with human rights standards had developed into a yardstick for measuring U.S. foreign policy initiatives in Latin America. This paper argues that between 1969 and 1974, a small group of dedicated church activists, exiled Brazilians, and academics introduced the issue of human rights in Latin America into the U.S. national body politic. A network of concerned activists fashioned a systematic campaign to educate journalists, government officials, and the public about the abuses taking place under the generals' rule. Their activities helped isolate the military regime and laid the groundwork for a broader solidarity movement with Latin American popular struggles in the late 1970s and 1980s.     

战略竞争背景下美国对华贸易威慑分析

从威慑视角对中美贸易交锋进行分析发现,美国对华贸易战的本质是一种力图在逐步升级的方略指导下利用贸易手段对华传递出危险信号,让中国认识到任何与美方意愿相悖的行为都将得不偿失,进而迫使中方将自身行为"规范"在符合美方利益框架内的威慑行为。与此同时,为了确保对华贸易威慑的成本不影响特朗普总统连任,以及避免让对华贸易威慑的实际结果与"让美国再次伟大"的初衷背道而驰,特朗普政府在对华贸易威慑的过程中又始终与中方保持必要的接触,以避免威慑失控。美国将贸易纳入对华威慑"工具箱"的原因在于,相较于其他威慑手段,贸易在当前战略竞争背景下的大国博弈中更能发挥作用。美国对华发动贸易威慑的实力基础,在于其以科技、市场、金融及规则为支撑的贸易霸权。虽然贸易战在客观上给中国带来了一定的负面影响,但从总体上看,美国的贸易威慑并未取得预期效果,这关键在于中方审时度势的反向威慑。从长远来看,贸易战作为美国对华威慑的新手段,必将伴随中美战略竞争的整个过程。     

The United States and East Asia in an age of financialization

This article starts from Peter Gowan's notion of a Dollar-Wall Street Regime (DWSR) characterized by financial deregulation, the dollar as the world's currency, large international capital flows, and frequent financial crises. The author argues that the DWSR has relied on a special economic relationship between the United States and East Asia, characterized by large East Asian trade and current account surpluses with the United States and the investment of East Asian dollar holdings in U.S. capital markets. For some time both parties benefited from this relationship, but eventually it gave rise to financial crises in East Asia. Thus, Japan's financial crisis around 1990 and the 1997/98 East Asian financial crisis are both related to economic over-accumulation caused by the buildup of currency reserves through trade with the United States. Attempts at East Asian monetary integration since 1997 are viewed as a potential challenge to the DWSR. These attempts have however been blocked or rendered harmless by regional divisions as well as by U.S. resistance. While an East Asian political challenge to theDWSRis unlikely for the time being, the special U.S.-East Asian economic relationship may become substantially weakened by the growing problems of the U.S. economy.     

美国金融危机影响下东南亚国家的经济表现与未来走向

2008年9月,美国次级信贷危机演变为金融危机并迅速席卷全球,在危机加剧的情况下,东南亚国家经济大幅下滑.本文分析了2008年东南亚各国在危机影响之下的经济表现,并对东南亚经济的未来走向作出预测.