Statistical inference and meta-analysis

Statistical inference is a common feature of meta-analysis. Statistical inference depends on a formal model that accurately characterizes certain key features of how the studies to be summarized were generated. The implications of this requirement are discussed and questions are raised about the credibility of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests routinely reported.

Ex-offender employment programs and recidivism: A meta-analysis

One consequence of the tremendous growth in the number of persons under supervision of the criminal justice system, whether incarcerated, on parole, or on probation, is the effect of this criminal history on finding and keeping a job. Ex-offenders, especially those recently released from prison, face substantial barriers to many types of legal employment; nonetheless, stable employment is one of the best predictors of post-release success. Thus, policy-makers concerned about high recidivism rates face an obvious need to improve the employment prospects of ex-offenders. Over the last 25 years, many programs that were designed to increase employment (and, by so doing, reduce recidivism) among ex-offenders have been implemented and evaluated. [Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A., Coggeshall, M. B. & MacKenzie, D. L. (1999). Corrections Management Quarterly 3(4), 8–18; Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A. & MacKenzie, D. L. (2000). Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 37(4), 347–368] conducted a quantitative synthesis and meta-analysis of 33 evaluations of educational, vocational, and work programs for persons in correctional facilities. To date, however, the evaluation literature on employment programs for those with a criminal record who are not in custody has not been systematically reviewed. This paper presents the results of a quantitative meta-analysis of eight random assignment studies of such programs, using the Campbell Collaboration methodology. The results indicate that this group of community employment programs for ex-offenders did not reduce recidivism; however, the experimental design research on this question is small and does not include some of the promising community employment programs that have emerged in the last decade.     

传递性推理心理效应的研究

传递性推理心理效应是指在进行传递性推理时各种因素对做出演绎结论的影响。传递性推理的心理效应主要包括端点锚定效应、系列位置效应、符号距离效应、一致性效应、转换效应、方向效应。深入研究传递性推理中的心理效应有助于进一步揭示传递性推理机制。在未来的传递性推理研究中要高度重视对心理效应的系统研究。     

The effects of closed-circuit television on crime: meta-analysis of an English national quasi-experimental multi-site evaluation

This article reports results obtained in an English national quasi-experimental multi-site evaluation of 14 closed-circuit television (CCTV) projects in residential areas, town and city centers, a city hospital, and car parks (parking lots). Both police and victimization data were collected before and after the installation of CCTV in target, control and buffer areas, and police Divisions. The results showed that CCTV was effective in reducing crimes in train station car parks but not in city centers or residential areas, seemed to be effective in reducing vehicle crimes (but not other types of crimes), and was most effective when the degree of coverage by CCTV was high and when CCTV was combined with other interventions such as improved lighting. Implications for situational crime prevention theory are drawn. There was no evidence of displacement or diffusion of benefits. It is concluded that CCTV needs to be implemented more effectively, based on an analysis of the crime problem and its causes, and needs to be evaluated using a randomized experimental design.

A Meta-Analysis of Race and Sentencing Research: Explaining the Inconsistencies

Numerous studies have addressed the question: Are African-Americans treated more harshly than similarly situated whites? This research employs meta-analysis to synthesize this body of research. One-hundred-sixteen statistically independent contrasts were coded from 71 published and unpublished studies. Coded study and contextual features are used to explain variation in research findings. Analyses indicate that African-Americans generally are sentenced more harshly than whites; the magnitude of this race effect is statistically significant but small and highly variable. Larger estimates of unwarranted disparity are found in contrasts that examine drug offenses, imprisonment or discretionary decisions, do not pool cases from several smaller jurisdictions, utilize imprecise measures, or omit key variables. Yet, even when consideration is confined to those contrasts employing key controls and precise measures of key variables, unwarranted racial disparities persists. Further, a substantial proportion of variability in study results is explained by study factors, particularly methodological factors.     

Improving the strategy to identify historical military remains:a literature review and Y-STR meta-analysis

The identification of historical military remains by Unrecovered War Casualties—Army(UWC-A)currently relies on Y-chromosome Short Tandem Repeat(Y-STR)testing when maternal relatives are not available,or when a mitochondrial DNA match does not provide sufficient certainty of identification.However,common Y-STR profiles(using Yfiler™)between sets of remains or families often prevent identification.To resolve these cases,an investigation of additional Y-DNA markers is needed for their potential inclusion into the DNA identification strategy.The number of genetic transmissions between missing soldiers and their living relatives needs to be considered to avoid false exclusions between paternal relatives.Analysis of 236 World War Ⅰ/Ⅱ(WWI/Ⅱ)era pairs of relatives identified up to seven genetic transmissions between WWII soldiers and their living relatives,and nine for WWI.Previous Y-STR meta-analyses were published approximately 10 years ago when rapidly mutating markers were relatively new.This paper reports a contemporary literature review and meta-analysis of 35 studies(which includes 23 studies not previously used in meta-analysis)and 23 commonly used Y-STR's mutation rates to inform the inclusion of additional loci to UWC-A's DNA identification strategy.Meta-analysis found mutation data for a given Y-STR locus could be pooled between studies and that the mutation rates were significantly different between some loci(at P＜0.05).Based on this meta-analysis,we have identified two additional markers from PowerPlex® Y23 for potential inclusion in UWC-A's identification strategy.Further avenues for potential experimental exploration are discussed.     

Do the Mental Health Consequences of Sexual Victimization Differ Between Males and Females? A General Strain Theory Approach

Sexual assault is a traumatizing event linked to numerous mental health consequences. Although extant research has thoroughly examined the collateral consequences experienced by females, limited literature exists regarding how sexual violence comparatively affects males and females. Using data from the National Violence Against Women Survey (1995–1996) and a strain theoretical framework, the current study addresses this research gap to understand the effects of sexual assault and sex on depression. Results indicate that victims of sexual assault have higher depression scores than persons who have not been sexually assaulted in their lifetime. Moreover, we found no sex effect for sexual assault on depression. The methodology used eliminated a bias typically associated with regression analyses, caused from statistical inference after improper model selection. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

刑法学研究方法分类研究

探索刑法学研究方法的外延与分类,一方面要摒弃各种方法之间相互指责的偏见,以包容的态度有根据地将各种有助于刑法学科研究的方法吸纳进来,另一方面要理性地排除其他人文科学与自然科学对方法的干扰,划清学科与方法的界限,以刑法学的研究对象为基本标准对研究方法作广义、狭义双层次的分类,使方法各归其位,从而将各种方法从零星的罗列上升为周延的体系,从周延的体系上升为刑法学方法论。     

Developing a Multicenter Randomized Trial in Criminology: The Case of HIDTA

In criminal justice, as in other fields, an experimental study conducted ata single site does not offer a solid basis upon which to make strong publicpolicy recommendations. To date, criminal justice researchers have reliedupon two general approaches to overcome the limitations of single-siteexperimental research. The first, termed ``meta-analysis, seeks tocombine independent studies to identify consistent effects across criminaljustice settings or contexts. The second, sometimes termed replicationstudies, seeks to replicate investigations in multiple criminaljustice jurisdictions. In this paper we describe a related approachdeveloped in clinical studies in medicine and examine its applicabilityin criminal justice settings. Termed a multicenter clinicaltrial, this method demands the implementation ofa single experimental protocol at multiple sites. We contrast themulticenter approach with other methods and provide a substantiveexample of an ongoing multicenter criminal justice study. We begin byexamining the specific limitations of current approaches and solutionsoffered by multicenter studies to overcome these. We then turn to anapplication of the multicenter clinical trial in a criminal justicesetting. Using the example of the HIDTA (High-Intensity Drug TraffickingAreas) evaluation of drug treatment programs currently being conducted atmultiple sites, we illustrate components of the multicenter approach aswell as potential drawbacks researchers are likely to face in itsapplication in crime and justice studies.     

侦查权内部控制实证研究——以法制部门审核刑事案件为视角

基于对侦查权被滥用的风险和权力正确适用的规范,国家建构了内外两大监督系统,即外部以检察机关为主的法律监督和内部以科层制审批实施的监督。在目前侦查权外部监督尚待完善的现状下,作为侦查权主要适用主体的公安机关,以内部法规、规章约束侦查权行使,构建侦查权内部监控机制。为了解内部侦查权控制机制运行情况,本课题组对s省的四个县市公安机关的刑侦法制部门进行了问卷和座谈相结合的实地调研。调研结果分析反映出目前法制部门对刑事案件侦查监督控制的权力控制规则。     

Influences on the Prisoner Rate: Number of Entries into Prison, Length of Sentences and Crime Rate

On the basis of the data contained in the European Sourcebook, this article tries to answer the question: 'What influences the prisoner rate most? The number of entries into prison, the length of sentences, or the crime rate?' The authors show that the crime rate is absolutely not correlated with the prisoner rate. The latter depends principally on the length of the imposed custodial sanctions and secondly on the number of those imposed prison sentences. Nevertheless, there are some indications suggesting that these results could be different from one type of offence to another. Unfortunately, this hypothesis could not be tested on the basis of the European Sourcebook data.     

司法审判的法哲学分析

司法判决是制度、事实、个人活动的合因之果,判决形成的思维工具包括法律解释和法律推理;判决以确定性为特征,而法官形成判决过程中的判断却具有综合性。     

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.     

From Poisson to the present: Applying operations research to problems of crime and justice

In the 1830s Siméon-Denis Poisson developed the distribution that bears his name, basing it on the binomial distribution. He used it to show how the inherent variance in jury decisions affected the inferences that could be made about the probability of conviction in French courts. In recent years there have been a number of examples where researchers have either ignored or forgotten this inherent variance, and how operations research, in particular mathematical modeling, can be used to incorporate this variance in analyses. These are described in this paper, as well as other contributions made by operations research to the study of crime and criminal justice.     

行政公益诉讼与民事公益诉讼比较研究

行政公益诉讼和民事公益诉讼制度在我国的建立已是大势所趋 ,那么两类公益诉讼有何相似之处 ,又有何不同呢 ?通过对二者进行了各个方面的比较研究后 ,得出结论     

Predatory journals and meetings in forensic sciences: what every expert needs to know about this "parasitic" publishing model

The emergence of the Internet has transformed all areas of society. This includes the universe of scientific publications, with several publishers now exclusively focusing on the electronic format and open access model while expanding to a megajournal scope. In this context, the pandemic of predatory open access journals (POAJs) and meetings are of grave concern to the academic and research community. This new shift within academia produces a variety of new victims; namely, the authors themselves. In turn, scientific knowledge is often discredited, with the public placing less trust in science. Now more than ever, performing research with integrity and selecting a journal in which to publish requires close attention and expertise. The "predatory movement" has developed increasingly sophisticated techniques for misleading people into believing what seem to be credible professional layouts and legitimate invitations. Initiatives such as the Jeffrey Beall's list, the Cabell's Scholarly Analytics and Think.Check.Submit offer some guidance to uncover the "parasitic" intervention of predatory journals and meetings, but specific education in this field is sorely needed. This work aims to review the main characteristics of predatory journals and meetings and to analyze this topic in the context of forensic and legal medicine research.