我国NGO参与社会福利为何困难重重——体制层面的分析

对于当今中国公众而言，NGO一词并不陌生。改革开放以来的三十余年中，我国各类NGO活跃在社会福利、公共服务、慈善事业等领域，成为社会福利社会化过程中的重要参与主体，也成了社会公众和媒体关注的焦点。然而，同国外相比，我国的NGO发展尚不成熟，其赖以生存制度环境依旧不稳定。我国NGO管理体制上的瓶颈在很大程度上限制了我国NGO的进一步发展。主要从体制层面分析我国NGO参与社会福利过程中的阻力，并寻求解决途径。     

Terrorist networks, support, and delegation

The paper presents a game-theoretic representation of a general terrorist organization (GTO) that delegates responsibility to local terrorist representatives in n countries. The GTO achieves a strategic advantage by deploying a more radical representative when the government is perceived to be weak and terrorist supporters are committed. When the government or terrorist supporters alter their posture, the GTO may regret its local representative. Outside assistance can change a besieged government’s posture, thereby removing the GTO’s delegation advantage. When both the GTO and the government delegate to surrogates, the delegators are worse off if the government appears to be weak.     

Questioning local ownership: Insights from donor-funded NGOs in Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

Local ownership is one of the popular paradigms of Western development aid. It involves giving more effective control of the design and implementation of development aid to local actors in aid-receiving countries, including governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local communities. This article contrasts the understanding of local ownership as a top-down process triggered by donors, with an alternative, bottom-up ownership, which emerges spontaneously on the ground. By looking at the case of a local NGO in post-Soviet Tajikistan, the article analyses practices which reveal how the NGO actively takes ownership of development aid through everyday work. This includes fundraising, structuring relations with other organizations competing for donor funding, selecting calls for proposals from NGOs and writing grant applications. Each of these activities involves negotiations of the goals and scope of development work, against parameters imposed by donors. By means of example, the article questions the application of the local ownership paradigm in development work.     

Risk Sensitivity and Terrorism

One enduring question about terrorism is why individuals choose to join terrorist groups. Past studies have shown that terrorists are not always poor, and they can in fact come from more privileged groups in society. Risk sensitivity and prospect theory are approaches that can help explain some of the anomalies. They suggest that two types of group are likely to supply members for terrorist organizations in disproportionate numbers. One group consists of those who face a loss of status or position due to ongoing changes in society. A second group consists of those who have an opportunity to gain a major advance in status or position. Both groups are thus more likely or more willing to take risks such as joining dissident terrorists – either to maintain their position or to improve it. An analysis of the situation of Palestinian nationalists, nationalists in Northern Ireland and the Tamils in Sri Lanka provides support for the idea that sensitivity to risk can be an important factor in explaining the willingness of individuals to join terrorist groups.     

Management standards and development practice in the South African aid chain

The article addresses how South African non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) approach the management of their development activities and the influences upon their approaches. Based on interviews, field visits and programme documents from 40 organisations working in South Africa, the article explores the extent to which NGO programme priorities and adopted management practices arise out of donor conditions, succeed in their stated aims and generate other unintended consequences. Four aspects of contemporary NGO management dynamics are explored: logical frameworks, participatory processes, impact enhancement and financial probity. While donor requirements in these four areas generally impose heavy costs on South African NGOs and poorly achieve their stated aims, the research documents cases, in which local managers were able to work effectively and learn within these constraints, found ways around the more intrusive requirements, or challenged donors to change their policies to permit more equitable donor‐recipient relationships and better development practice. However, an unintended impact of tighter funding requirements is an observable differentiation within the South African NGO sector, with smaller community‐based organisations excluded as larger professional organisations establish more enduring links with international development organisations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NGO Accountability from an NGO Perspective: Perceptions,Strategies, and Practices

Extant research in the nonprofit literature focuses on non‐governmental organization (NGO) accountability, framing it relationally. We examine the interplay of several constitutive elements of NGO–donor relationships based on narratives of NGO executives and other staff: NGO perceptions of accountability and of their donors, their assumptions about donor perceptions of the NGO role and expectations of NGO accountability, and their responses to shifts in donor funding. We argue that perceptions and practices of accountability do not only determine to whom an NGO should be primarily accountable but also shape NGO behavior and alter dependence on donors. As such, accountability is not necessarily a consequence of a relationship, but more likely a constitutive element of the relationship. While a favorable response to donor interests might signify upward accountability, it might also suggest that NGOs are more assertive about managing their institutional environments, thereby mitigating their dependence on donors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biased Altruism: Islamophobia and Donor Support for Global Humanitarian Organizations

Providing humanitarian assistance to displaced individuals is a critical policy challenge. Many refugee camps are run by charities supported by Western donors. If refugees are predominantly Muslim, might Islamophobia suppress donations to these charities? Using a survey experiment conducted in the United States, the authors examine whether donors' willingness to support a charity is influenced by the dominant religion of the refugees, the regions in which refugee camps are located, and/or the religious affiliation of the charity. The authors find modest support for Islamophobia: while willingness to donate is not affected by the location of camps or the predominance of Muslim refugees, it declines significantly for Islamic charities. Respondents overall tend to be especially willing to donate to a charity that serves Christian refugees in the Middle East. Among self‐identifying Christians, respondents are more willing to donate to a charity serving Christian refugees than one serving Muslim refugees.     

Local Officials’ Support for PILOTs/SILOTs: Nonprofit Engagement,Economic Stress,and Politics

Nonprofit property tax exemption has become a major policy issue as the collapse of the housing market, the Great Recession, and property tax caps have threatened local tax collections. Consequently, many local governments have sought to obtain payments in lieu of taxes (PILOTs) from charities that are formally exempt from property taxes. Using a 2010 survey of local government officials in Indiana, this article examines whether support for PILOT policies is related to officials’ personal involvement with nonprofits, their views on government–nonprofit relationships, the type of position they hold, the level of economic distress in the county, local political conditions, and local nonprofit wealth. The findings support most of these hypotheses but also show that attitudes toward PILOTs appear to be shaped by somewhat different concerns than attitudes toward services in lieu of taxes (SILOTs).     

Reprecincting and Voting Behavior

Despite the expansion of convenience voting across the American states, millions of voters continue to cast ballots at their local precincts on Election Day. We argue that those registered voters who are reassigned to a different Election Day polling place prior to an election are less likely to turn out to vote than those assigned to vote at the same precinct location, as a new precinct location incurs both search and transportation costs on reassigned voters. Utilizing voter file data and precinct shape files from Manatee County, Florida, from before and after the 2014 General Election, we demonstrate that the redrawing of precinct boundaries and the designation of Election Day polling places is not a purely technical matter for local election administrators, but may affect voter turnout of some registered voters more than others. Controlling for a host of demographic, partisan, vote history, and geospatial factors, we find significantly lower turnout among registered voters who were reassigned to a new Election Day precinct compared to those who were not, an effect not equally offset by those voters turning to other available modes of voting (either early in-person or absentee). All else equal, we find that registered Hispanic voters were significantly more likely to abstain from voting as a result of being reassigned than any other racial group.     

How Do Nonprofits Respond to Regulatory Thresholds: Evidence From New York's Audit Requirements

Nonprofits in the United States must comply with various state and federal regulations to maintain their tax‐exempt status. Despite persistent calls to increase accountability in the nonprofit sector, there is little research examining the burden imposed by existing regulatory requirements, especially at the state level. This paper uses a bunching design to estimate the avoidance behavior exhibited by tax‐exempt charities in response to New York State's audit requirements. There is clear evidence of bunching in response to the requirement that nonprofits above certain revenue thresholds file financial statements reviewed by or audited by an independent certified public accountant. Measuring the extent of bunching around the revenue notches yields estimates of the average revenue that nonprofits either forego or fail to report in avoidance of the requirements. Results from dynamic estimation show that charities near the threshold for a review engagement report approximately $1,300 less revenue than otherwise predicted by a counterfactual; charities near the threshold for a full audit report approximately $1,400 less. The results have implications for the optimal design of state‐level financial regulations.     

Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations

The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of terrorist group duration. Our sample includes 367 terrorist organizations that operated during 1970?C2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these groups?? survival include their tactics, sizes, ideological basis, regions of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are reported. Terrorist organizations fare better if they are larger in size, diversify their attack modes, are animated by religiosity rather than secular political goals, and base their operations in the Middle East or Africa. Groups?? longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.     

Public Opinion on Issues of U.S. Federalism in 2005: End of the Post-2001 Pro-Federal Surge?

This article analyzes public opinion on five areas of federalism-relatedissues in 2005 and compares the results with findings from previousyears. Overall, the results indicate (1) a decline in supportfor the federal government following the increase in supportafter the terrorist attacks of 2001 and (2) an increase in supportfor state and local governments to levels typical of most pre-2001surveys. The local property tax, however, continues to be identifiedmost often as the worst tax, whereas the state income tax isleast often said to be the worst. The federal government is,by far, the level of government most often selected as havingtoo much power today, whereas local government is most oftencited as needing more power. Also evident was a decline since2002 in the public's perception of the respect given to theirstates in the federal system.     

The Quality of Terror

I present a model of the interaction between a government, a terrorist organization, and potential terrorist volunteers in which, as a result of an endogenous choice, individuals with low ability or little education are most likely to volunteer to join the terrorist organization. However, the terrorist organization screens the volunteers for quality. Consequently, the model is consistent with two seemingly contradictory empirical findings. Actual terrorist operatives are not poor or lacking in education. And yet lack of economic opportunity and recessionary economies are positively correlated with terrorism. The model also endogenizes the effect of government counterterrorism on mobilization. Government crackdowns have competing effects on mobilization: they decrease the ability of terrorists to carry out effective attacks (making mobilization less attractive), and they foment ideological opposition to the government and impose negative economic externalities (making mobilization more attractive). This provides conditions under which government crackdowns increase or decrease mobilization.     

The Trump administration’s Afghanistan policy

In addition to reducing terrorist threats, US President Donald Trump's new Afghanistan policy seeks to roll back the Taliban on the battlefield and pressure the group into an acceptable political settlement with far fewer US troops than Barack Obama deployed. Trump has also proposed involving India more closely in Afghanistan's economic development, which stands to antagonise Pakistan, the Taliban's key backer. In this light, it appears unlikely that the new policy will succeed.     

Coordination between government and voluntary organizations (NGOs) in Thailand's rural development

This paper investigates the coordination between government organizations and nongovernmental, voluntary organizations in Thailand. The contributions, the nature and the cooperation mechanisms of development NGOs are considered on the basis of field data collected from local government and NGO officers working in rural development. Based on theoretical considerations, an overview of coordination is developed within the framework of development in the country. The problems of coordination boil down to a fundamental mistrust of the NGOs’ style of operation in spite of the personal relationships that are often the only basis for coordination attempts. While decentralization efforts will improve the situation, a more direct policy, as well as plan formulation and implementation management efforts, will be needed to arrive at a mutually reinforced effort in rural development.     

Dangerous dynamics: activists,militants and terrorists in Southeast Asia

This article critiques the view that Southeast Asia has emerged as a key theatre for terrorist activity. While accepting that al-Qaeda and the indigenous Southeast Asian group Jemaah Islamiyah have emerged as a potent threat to regional security, it interrogates the view that this renders Southeast Asia more dangerous than many other parts of the world. The article suggests that this exaggerated sense of threat rests largely on a failure to account for nuanced differences in the nature of Islamist politics in the region. As a small step towards redressing this problem the article outlines a typology of Islamist organizations. It also suggests that a person’s location within this typology is more than a function of religiosity but reflects instead relative degrees of social and political alienation.     

Community Policing,Homeland Security,and the Somali Diaspora in Minnesota

Over the past decade more than 40 young men have left the Somali diaspora in the US state of Minnesota to fight for foreign terrorist groups. In 2011, fearing similar radicalization across the country, the Obama administration began to emphasize the potential for community policing to enable police agencies to partner with local communities to prevent it. Subsequently, the US Department of Justice sought to make the state’s capital, Minneapolis-St. Paul, a national model for doing so. This article assesses the success of this goal and elucidates the principal lessons that might be learned from the ongoing process.     

Splitting the difference: Partnering with non-governmental organizations to manage HIV/AIDS epidemics in Australia and Thailand

Conclusions Australia and Thailand have made great progress in partnering with NGOs to respond to HIV/AIDS through the protection of human rights. Unquestionably, the Australian experience is more advanced. However, it is important to note that Australia’s political institutions and traditions were able to empower and accept an NGO movement of this nature almost from the start of disease identification.Thailand did not have this advantage, having only moved toward political institutions that are open to public opinion and civil society’s input within the last 15 years. In spite of their varied histories, both countries eventually traveled down similar paths. In Australia, HIV/AIDS NGOs moved rapidly forward from being standard-setting, fact-finding, and advocacy organizations to becoming capable of creating new HIV/AIDS umbrella organizations and influencing existing governmental organizations on HIV/AIDS human rights issues. Indeed, by the close of the 1980s, NGOs had established themselves firmly in all of these roles. The fact that Australia still struggles with addressing an emerging epidemic among indigenous people is more a sign that the movement has thus far been incomplete than that it is faltering or ineffective. Additionally, now that NGOs are actively working through AFAO on behalf of indigenous peoples, it is likely that there will finally be more movement on human rights and H1V/AIDS issues for this group. However, sex tourism and the illegal trafficking of women and children for purposes of prostitution continue to require ongoing proactive management by the partnership before they become a serious epidemic threat. Thailand’s situation is somewhat different from that of Australia. The HIV/AIDS NGO community has grown since the epidemic exploded in the 1990s, but the organizations themselves continue to have limited power, While they have been an important voice in human rights standard-setting, fact-finding and advocacy regarding HIV/AIDS, they remain unable to fully influence the governmental organizations that ultimately make and implement human rights policies in these areas. As the NGO experience in general is new to Thai politics, continuing human rights abuses are a sign of the miles left to travel on this road rather than an indicator that the road needs to be abandoned. Regardless of their differing experiences with creating HIV/AIDS partnerships, it is impossible to say that either effort has failed to use this mechanism successfully to at least begin seriously addressing HIV/AIDS human rights issues. What can be said is that each partnership can be placed at a differing point on a continuum of effectiveness that ultimately concludes with a fully integrated partnership capable of fundamentally influencing a country’s HIV/AIDS human rights policies on an ongoing basis.     

The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization

Many terrorist factions care about the level of popular support they enjoy within a population they claim to represent. Empirically, this level of support can either rise or fall in the aftermath of a campaign of terrorist violence. Under what circumstances is the use of terror an effective tactic for mobilizing political support for an extremist group? This article models a scenario in which an extremist faction considers attacking a government in the hopes of provoking a counterterror response that will radicalize the population, increasing the extremists' support at the expense of a more moderate faction. In our scenario, such radicalization can result either from the economic damage caused by counterterror operations or by the way in which such operations change the population's assessment of the government's motivations. We demonstrate that such attempts at mobilizing public support can be, but need not be, successful, discuss factors that make both the initiation of a terror campaign and successful mobilization more or less likely, and relate our results to several empirical cases.     

Do terrorist attacks feed populist Eurosceptics? Evidence from two comparative quasi-experiments

Over recent years, Europe has experienced a series of Islamic terrorist attacks. In this article, conflicting theoretical expectations are derived on whether such attacks increase populist Euroscepticism in the form of anti-immigration, anti-refugee and anti-European Union sentiment. Empirically, plausible exogenous variation in the exposure to the 2016 Berlin attack is exploited in two nationally representative surveys covering multiple European countries. No evidence is found for a populist response to the terrorist attack in any of the surveyed countries. On the contrary, people in Germany became more positive towards the EU in the wake of the Berlin attack. Moreover, little evidence is found that ideology shaped the response to the attack. The findings suggest that terrorist attacks are not met by an immediate public populist response.