The effects of family planning effort and development on fertility: An intervening variables framework

To pinpoint the intervening variable that transmit the impacts of development and family planning effort on fertility, a modified proximate determinants model was applied to data from 59 developing countries. The intermediate variable included level of exposure to sexual intercourse (the percentage of women 20-24 years old in a union), deliberate marital fertility control (the percentage of married women of reproductive age who were using contraception), and natural marital fertility (operationalized as average per capita calorie consumption). The regression equations indicated that both social development and family planning effort can influence fertility levels substantially through their association with higher levels of contraceptive use. Interestingly, the direct effects of family planning and social development on the crude birth rate became insignificant when the intermediate variables were included in the same equation. Path analysis revealed that social development has an indirect effect of -0.083 via its influence on marriage patterns and of -0.316 due to its effect on contraceptive usage. Family planning has a lesser indirect impact on fertility (-0.487), and -0.111 of this effect reflects program effort's dependence on the level of social development. Economic development is positively linked to fertility, and future research should assess whether this factor is partially counterbalancing the fertility-reducing impact of social development and family planning programs. Although this analysis confirms that delayed marriage and widespread adoption of contraception are key intervening variables, they cannot influence fertility in societies where there are social or cultural impediments to such changes.     

Dynamic properties of Taiwanese fertility, 1950–1972

This extensive statistical study focuses on fertility patterns during the postwar period in Taiwan. The analytical technique is economic, with socioeconomic variables generally considered the important determinants of fertility; on the other hand, female education and labor force participation were seen to exert a strong negative effect on fertility. Taiwan has reduced birth rates nearly 50% in the period from the 1950s-1970s. In 1972, Taiwan's birth rate/woman was 3.4, a 50% reduction from 1950, generally attributed to institution of a well-conceived family planning program in 1964. It is hypothesized that the socioeconomic forces (presented in 7 comprehensive tables) which influenced negatively the rate of births, worked primarily to reduce excess rather than desired fertility. The clear connection between women's participation in the labor force and reduction in desired fertility leads to the suggestion that stronger economic incentives must be presented to women. Given the already wide availability and low cost of birth control devices, further fertility reductions caused by expanded participation in the family planning program are not likely to reduce desired family size significantly. Instead, it is argued that such reductions tend to occur slowly and to be associated with more economically meaningful roles for women. Analyzed on a cost-benefit basis, the fertility control efforts of the Taiwanese government should be directed to achieving a synchronization between the skill levels demanded by the economy and those acquired in the system of higher education. Economic incentives for fewer births would then augment, rather than offset, the presently extant negative effects of slowly changing attitudinal variables and economic development. The formulation and usefulness of statistical methods are developed extensively within this article.     

Fertility,family planning,and development: Indirect influences

This paper focuses on the indirect influences on changing fertility and on the direct and indirect influences on family planning effort. Complete data on the variables under consideration were gathered from a variety of sources for 65 developing countries. The results here should be generalized only to high fertility, high mortality, low education, and low per capita gross national product nations. 1) Some social variables, like education, are more important than others for explaining fertility and family planning effort. The treatment of social setting as a single variable obscures the importance of lower level education (literacy, primary, and secondary school enrollment) for fertility and family planning. 2) Ignoring the indirect influences on fertility may lead us to understimate the importance of some variables on fertility, and perhaps to overestimate the importance of others. When both direct and indirect effects (the latter through family planning effort) are examined, the impact of education increases to nearly equal that of family planning effort in 3 of the 4 models developed here. 3) Program effort can be explained at least as well with a single variable (literacy or female school enrollment) as with the composite variable "social setting." 4) In addition to its importance in explaining fertility, education may also be important in explaining mortality. 5) It appears that the absolute and relative status of women may be an important variable which has not yet been adequately measured. Overall, the results of this study lend additional support to the position that, in addition to family planning effort, education may play a more crucial role than is obvious in fertility reduction in developing countries.     

Covariations in the currency ratio and the velocity of money in underdeveloped countries 1

This paper investigates the effects of various socioeconomic variables on fertility rates, with special reference to the United States. Most of the results are consistent with the earlier cross‐sectional results of Adelman, Drakatos, et. al. More specifically it appears that such socioeconomic variables as age structure, education, per capita income, population, density, and urbanization influence birth rates in both developing and developed countries. Both linear and logarithmic forms are used to estimate birth rates. In the final portions of the paper an attempt is made to reconcile those cases in which the results were not consistent with some of the earlier findings.     

Fertility,development, and family planning

Earlier studies by Tsui and Bogue (1978) and Mauldin and Berelson (1978) suggested that family planning efforts account for 3-4 times the variance in fertility than is explained by indicators of socioeconomic development. This paper replicates, extends, and revises these analyses. Selection of a different set of countries for sampling was found to have little effect on the earlier results. In addition, neither factor scaling nor the addition of distributional variables had a substantial effect. However, weighting countries by population size was found to produce a decline in explained variance. It was found that although family planning has a stronger direct effect on fertility than any other variable when countries are considered, the effect of education is stronger when people are considered. When more developed countries were included in the analysis, the combination of prior fertility and mortality explained almost all the variation in current fertility. This finding suggests that fertility is more responsive to longterm, stabilized changes in mortality than to short-term changes. 4 methodological conclusions are derived from these analyses: 1) unless a sample of countries is overtly biased, the selection of a sample on the basis of available data has little impact on the results; 2) stepwise methods can be utilized to avoid the inclusion of a large number of variables in a regression equation; 3) weighting of cases has a substantial impact on results; and 4) since most variables have little direct influence on fertility change, analysis should be extended to examine indirect influences. These results suggest a policy which invests economic resources in education and mortality reduction as well as family planning efforts. Investments in primary and secondary education may reduce mortality as well as fertility.     

Internal migration in Turkey: Socioeconomic characteristics by destination and type of move, 1965–70

Based on examination of internal migration in Turkey during the 1965-70 period, the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants and the variation in these properties by type of move undertaken (first, repeat, and return migration) and by choice of destination are described. The volume, rates, and differentials of migration are discussed in this context. A very rapid rural-urban migration occurred in the 1950-70 period; urban population increased from 18.8 to 35.8% of the total. The emphasis on industrialization, the mechanization and relatively slower growth of agricultural production, the scarcity of new lands to cultivate, and the construction of a large road network connecting cities with their hinterland and rural communities contributed to this increased movement. The 1970 Turkish census questionnaire included a question on "place of usual residence 5 years ago" for the 1st time. Along with information on place of birth and usual residence in 1970, the census provides information on place of residence at 3 points in time. The study is based on a 1/1000 sample selected from the household records of the 1970 Population Census of Turkey. Discussion is restricted to the migration of the adult population; the migration of children (up to age 15), which is viewed as involuntary is excluded. The working file contains 20,602 cases. Variables analyzed include age, sex, education, labor force status, occupation, and place of residence in 1970. The migration-defining variables are province of birth and usual residence in 1965 and 1970. Census data indicated that 9.2% of the population 15 years of age and older changed their place of residence during the 1965-70 period, moving to another province. An additional 4% moved to another place within the same province. There were strong indications of stage migration, if movements both within and between provinces are considered. All urban places showed population grew through intraprovincial migration. Only large metropolitan cities have grown through interprovincial migration. Migrants from rural areas 1st move to towns and cities within the same province and then make a 2nd move to other, mostly larger, urban areas and metropolitan cities. The majority of the interprovincial migrants (60%) were interurban movers, and only 1/5 were rural to urban migrants. +a large group of repeat migrants who moved primarily between urban places, were relatively older, better educated and skilled, and more likely to be employed in white-collar occupations than their counterparts. Although interprovincial migration was dominated by young and single males, there was considerable variation in migrant properties according to the type of move made and the place of destination. Socioeconomic characteristics of the 2 basic migration types are included.     

The Complexity of Marriage in Rural Ethiopia: Parental Transfers and Post-marital Residence Choices

This paper examines the relationship between parental transfers and post-marital residence of children in rural Ethiopia. We investigate whether asset transfers to children are an avenue which parents use to secure old age. We model post-marital residence and transfers simultaneously in a two-stage probit least squares estimation framework. We find a positive relationship between transfers and post-marital residence, a proxy for old age support. Children who receive more assets are more likely to stay at birth place after marriage and vice versa. In conditions of scarce or lacking social security mechanisms, parents make strategic transfers to ensure better old age.     

Islamic NGOs and Muslim politics: A case from Jordan

Islamic NGOs have proliferated in an effort to solve basic socioeconomic problems within an Islamic framework. Although legal conditions and government oversight prohibit direct political activities through Islamic NGOs, Islamists utilise these institutions to combat the intrusion of Western values and cultural codes. It is this struggle at the level of discourse and culture that imbues Islamic NGOs with political import, even if these activities are outside the boundaries of traditional politics. This article uses a case study of the al-Afaf Charitable Society in Jordan to examine the relationships among socioeconomic development, political and cultural struggle, and Islam. In an effort to promote early family formation, as encouraged by Islam, al-Afaf provides a variety of services to remove obstacles to marriage. This, in turn, is conceptualised by Islamists as an institutionalised attempt to counter Western values and practices that are seen as inimical to Islam.     

Intergenerational Consequences of Early Age Marriages of Girls: Effect on Children’s Human Capital

Abstract

We use nationally representative data from India on test scores in an instrumental variable framework to identify the effects of early age marriages of girls on the human capital of their children. Early age marriages reduce mother’s educational attainment, which can adversely impact the education outcomes of their children. On the other hand, better marriage prospects of young brides may compensate and improve children’s educational outcomes by way of resource provision. Consequently, the effect of early age marriages of girls on their children is theoretically ambiguous and warrants an empirical examination. In our empirical analysis, we use variation in age at menarche to instrument for age at marriage. Our estimates show that a delay of one year in the age at marriage of the mother increases the probability of being able to do the most challenging arithmetic and reading tasks on the administered test by 3.5 percentage points.     

The Soviet ideology of industrialization : A review article

This paper studies reproductive behaviour (ideal family size, completed family size and family planning acceptance) in a rural Indian area which was rapidly industrialising. Two castes and eleven villages were sampled. It was found that family planning was quite common and that fertility differentials among couples were related to the couples’ unique socioeconomic characteristics as well as to two group level variables (caste and village). The latter result was shown to be statistically significant, for all three measures of reproductive behaviour, even after many unique socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes of each couple were accounted for statistically.     

Ideas,Economics and 'the Sociology of Supply': Explanations for Fertility Decline in Bangladesh

The persistence of high rates of fertility in Bangladesh, despite the poverty of its population, has been given alternative, and apparently competing, explanations, including the absence of effective forms of family planning, the resilience of pro-natalist values and norms and the existence of material constraints which led to the reliance on children as economic assets. The recent and dramatic declines in fertility rates, in the absence of any apparent major economic changes in the decades prior to the onset of fertility decline, appears to contradict materialist explanations for fertility behaviour and to support explanations which stressed ideas about the acceptability of birth control and the availability of the means for doing so. This article argues that such an interpretation is based on an historical analysis of events in Bangladesh. It offers an alternative explanation which stresses socio-economic change as the primary motor for change in family size preferences, but which recognises the role of modern forms of family planning in facilitating the pace of the resulting fertility decline.     

Cross-national models of fertility,Family planning,and development: Testing for reciprocal effects

Cross-national models of fertility, family planning, and development commonly assume that there are no reciprocal effects between fertility and other variables in the model, and when path models are used, that there are no reciprocal or nonrecursive effects among any set of variables in the model. The present study tests for nonrecursiveness using two-wave panel data, and finds that nonrecursive effects are present among variables commonly used in models of fertility, family planning, and development. In addition, the pattern of relationships found has implications for the explanation of the relationship between mortality and fertility in demographic transition theory. Scott Menard is a research associate at the Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Campus Box 442, Boulder, Colorado, 80309-0442. His publications includePerspectives on Population with Elizabeth W. Moen (Oxford University Press, 1987) as well as several previous articles in SCID on fertility, family planning, and development.     

Fertility,development, and family planning, 1970–1980: An analysis of cases weighted by population

A series of related studies (Freedman and Berelson, 1976; Mauldin and Berelson, 1978; and Tsui and Bogue, 1978) have presented empirical findings based on multiple regression analysis which indicated that family planning program effort (FP), as measured by an index developed by Lapham and Mauldin (1972), was the single most important predictor of (or influence on) fertility reduction in less-developed countries (LDCs). The basic results have been confirmed repeatedly. A more extensive data set was used to extend the analysis to a comparison of results of corss-sectional models circa 1970 and 1980. The study builds upon the results of past studies yet differs from them in several ways. All the variables in the present study were measured at 2 points in time: circa 1970 and circa 1980, allowing a comparison between cross-sectional models for 1970 and 1980. Among the cases included in this multivariate analysis was China, a country usually excluded for lack of data. The analysis was extend to 85 countries. Cases were weighted by population, having the effect of increasing the impact of larger countries such as India and China on the outcome of the analysis. Total fertility rate (TFR) was used as an indicator of fertility. For 1970, family planning program effort had the strongest direct influence on fertility (a result consistent with previous studies). Life expectancy at birth was the other direct influence. The direct influence of life expectancy at birth was less than that of family planning, but the total influence was greater. After life expectancy and family planning, school enrollment and relative educational status of women had the strongest indirect and total influences. The other variables all had a positive influence on fertility. When the total variance attributable was considered, directly and indirectly to each of the independent variables, urbanization, carlorie supply, and per capita gross national product all accounted for less than 5% of the variance in fertility, all of it indirect. Life expectancy, family planning, and school enrollment each explained (directly plus indirectly) more than 10% of the variance in fertility. The pattern differed somewhat for 1980. Calorie supply, per capita gross national product, and relative educational status of women had no influence, direct or indirect on fertility. Also for 1980, life expectancy had a stronger direct influence on fertility than family planning. Overall, life expectancy at birth, family planning program effort, and total school enrollment emerged as the principal influences on fertility.     

An econometric analysis of trends in fertility rates

Some regression models are used to test the hypothesis that changes in fertility rates have been caused by changes in socioeconomic conditions. The model is applied to four groups of countries and the conclusion is that no simple relationship exists between fertility changes and environmental changes. This conclusion is at variance with results derived from cross‐section studies and suggests not that there is no relationship between socioeconomic and fertility changes, but only that the relationship may be more complex than that considered in previous models.     

Law,democracy and the fulfilment of socioeconomic rights: insights from Indonesia

In recent years a debate has emerged about the conditions under which justiciable legal frameworks facilitate the fulfilment of socioeconomic rights. This debate has pitted institutionalist perspectives that emphasise the progressive potential of democratisation against structuralist perspectives that emphasise the constraints imposed by relationships of power and interest. This paper considers the debate in light of Indonesia’s recent experience. It suggests that we need to examine how institutional and structural factors interact within particular contexts to shape socioeconomic rights fulfilment, not examine these factors in isolation. It also considers the strategic implications of this argument for rights proponents.     

Towards a Working Definition and Application of Social Age in International Development Studies

An emerging body of literature in childhood studies addresses the socially constructed nature of age that varies across time and place. However, despite the robustness of existing theory, few practitioners working in development contexts, where children and young people make up a large percentage of the population, consistently distinguish between biological facts of human development and the social meanings ascribed to different stages in the life cycle. Drawing on feminist theory and practical experiences of ‘gender mainstreaming’ in development studies, this article proposes and applies a working definition of ‘social age’ to supplement the prevailing focus on chronological age, embodied in legal definitions of ‘the child’.     

Cognitive Constructs and the Intention to Remit

This paper explores migrants’ motivations to remit from a new, behavioural (cognitive) perspective, based on Structural Equation Modelling. We supplement the mainstream economic analyses of migrants’ observed characteristics by analysing remitting behaviour based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). With this behavioural lens, we show that non-tangible, cognitive constructs are highly relevant in explaining the intention to remit. Results underline the fact that migrants’ attitudes and norms, the latter in particular driven by the family, are decisive for remitting. Classical socioeconomic variables also show significant results, but contribute comparatively little to explaining the intention to remit.     

Socioeconomic change and suicide: a time-series study from the Republic of Ireland

This ecological study examined the association between seven socioeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment rate, female labor force participation rate, alcohol expenditure, marriage rate, percentage of births outside of marriage, and indictable crime rate) and total, male, and female rates of suicide and suicide plus undetermined death in Ireland during the period 1968-2000. Analysis of the data expressed as absolute values showed highly significant associations between the socioeconomic indicators and the total, male, and female suicide rates. However, these associations were explained by the strongly trended data. The trended nature of the data was removed by using year-to-year differences. Analysis of the first-differenced data showed that none of the socioeconomic indicators was associated with the total, male, or female suicide rates with the exception of indictable crime, which had a significant independent effect on the female suicide rate (coefficient = 2.0, p < .01) but not on suicide plus undetermined death. This study highlights the need to use econometric methods in time-trend analyses, the lack of age-sex specific exposure data in this area, and the challenge of understanding trends in suicide in their socioeconomic context.     

The influence of individual and community-level child mortality on fertility in Egypt

Child mortality was analyzed in relation to 3 dimensions of reproductive behavior: birth intervals, additional children desired, and contraceptive use. Study data were drawn from a 1978 survey conducted in 2 predominantly rural governorates, Beheira and Kafr El-Sheikh, in lower Egypt. Within each governorate, 2 districts were selected on the basis of their distance from the capital of the governorate, agricultural output by major crops, percent of the population urban, infant mortality rate, and crude birthrate. Within each of the 4 districts, villages were randomly drawn from 3 strata: villages lacking any governmental services; villages with limited services (health center or primary school); and villages served by a combined unit center providing integrated services. A random sample of household heads was selected from household registration records of the provision office of each district. 1200 interviews were obtained from 685 households. Restriction of the sample to women with 1 or more live births, and the elimination of 13 cases with incomplete or inaccurate information, yielded 1010 cases for analysis. The basic measure of actual fertility was birth intervals. For the total sample and within each age category, cumulative fertility is higher the greater the number of child deaths. The data demonstrate a strong relationship between child mortality experience and cumulative fertility. The problem lies in interpreting such results. With some exceptions, birth intervals increased as expected with increasing parity. Women without child death experience displayed longer birth intervals than women who had not lost a child. With the single exception of the 7th parity women, all differences were statistically significant. The data fail to eliminate potential biological influences on subsequent fertility. With biological influences adequately controlled, no behavioral differences remained. Women who experienced child mortality desired greater numbers of additional children than women without child death experience. 19% of respondents were ever users of contraception, with women of low parity the least likely ever to have used contraception.     

Fertility decline and social service access: Reconciling behavioral and medical models

In this summary of fertility literature the author attempts to differentiate between the effects of behavioral and medical models of family planning programs on the fertility rate. This is done by determining the effects of access to social welfare services by assessment of: the function of children within the family life survey conducted in the Cameroons are also used. It was found that 7 interdependent elements of social service are involved: 1) general health care; 2) social security for sick and aged; 3) employment training and opportunities for adults; 4) literacy and education; 5) communication and transportation systems; 6) housing and infrastructure; 7) child care and welfare. The presence of these elements is shown to accompany low fertility while their absence is expressed in high rates of child bearing. These elements are major variables in both the nomological and public policy senses. 2 additional components are knowledge of and favorable attitudes towards effective means of fertility control plus effective mechanical, chemical, or natural means of limiting fertility. The concept of fertility norm and its impact on the fertility rate is explained as being the result of the collective force which social affiliations exert on people to reproduce in a certain way. The "stopping rule" is that which will fulfill the fertility norm. An example of this is a culture which continues child bearing until a son has been born and then controls reproduction after this has happened. Such factors must be considered for family planning programs to succeed in these cultures. Therefore fertility levels are found to be the product of prevailing norms and technical ability to achieve these norms. Improvement in levels of access to social services can bring about the lowering of these norms.