21世纪美日贸易谈判及其对华影响

21世纪之初,美日两国相关领域专家曾就开启双边FTA谈判的可行性进行探讨;两国政府间谈判后来也终于启动。作为第一阶段贸易谈判的成果,《美日贸易协定》和《美日数字贸易协定》已于2020年1月1日正式生效。进入21世纪以来,美日贸易谈判得以启动,表面来看是美国为了降低与日本的巨额贸易赤字,利用追加汽车关税手段对日施压,日本被迫应允。实际上,美日贸易谈判的启动和发展是两国在经济利益、双边关系、地缘政治、权力博弈等多种动因综合作用下的结果。美日贸易谈判增加了美国重返TPP/CPTPP制衡中国的可能,为美日联手打造排除中国的数字贸易规则创造了条件,建立了不对称权力谈判的样板,并增大了日本在中、美之间实施战略摇摆的可能性。美日贸易谈判短期内对中国的影响并不明显,但从中长期来看,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情加速推动世界秩序重构、美日两国政府更替、RCEP签署、中欧投资协定谈判如期完成、中国表态积极考虑加入CPTPP并正就相关事项展开研究等新的国际政治经济形势下,会在多个方面产生较大影响。深入分析进入21世纪以来美日贸易谈判有助于中国及时妥善应对相关问题。     

Minor Parties and Independents in Times of Change: Scottish Local Elections 1974 to 2007

This article explores the electoral performance of minor party and Independent candidates in Scottish local elections from 1974 to 2007. This is a period which began with a major restructuring of local government and ended with a change in the electoral system from first-past-the-post to the single transferable vote. It encompasses a second restructuring in the 1990s, the consolidation of the Scottish National Party as an electoral force, and the creation of the Scottish Parliament. Throughout the period, while there have been ebbs and flows, Independents and minor parties have remained significant players in local electoral politics in Scotland.     

LOCAL INQUIRIES OR PUBLIC HEARINGS: CHANGES IN PUBLIC CONSULTATION OVER THE REDISTRIBUTION OF UK PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES

The UK government undertakes a variety of public consultation procedures during the implementation of a range of policies, some of which involve public hearings with varying formats. In 2011 it proposed a major change to such procedures used in the redistribution of Parliamentary constituency boundaries. Local Inquiries were deemed ‘not fit for purpose’ and eliminated, because they were lengthy and dominated by the political parties seeking electoral gain. This change was opposed in Parliament and an alternative procedure introduced involving Public Hearings which were to be shorter and less conflictual than the Local Inquiries they replaced. The Hearings for the first round of redistributions under the new procedure have now been held. This article assesses whether they were any ‘fitter for purpose’; there was very little participation by the general public and, as before, the proceedings were dominated by the political parties.     

Prospects for an Independent Catalonia

The aim of this paper is to examine the factors that have triggered the recent shift from devolution to secession expressed by the Catalan grassroots movement which has been consolidated in the last 5 years or so. This movement stands in favour of the so-called ‘right to decide’ which specifically demands the right of Catalan citizens to be considered as a ‘demos’ able to decide upon its political future by means of holding a referendum on the issue. Conflict has emerged as a result of the Spanish state’s prohibition to allow for a referendum on that issue. The paper offers an overview of the origins of modern Catalan nationalism by tracing back its roots to Franco’s dictatorship and the subsequent transition to democracy. It analyses the main arguments behind the qualitative shift from devolution to secession embodied in the rise of a novel bottom up secessionist movement supporting the idea of holding a referendum on Catalan independence from Spain; so far, strictly forbidden by the Spanish State. The paper considers the impediments to a ‘referendum’ on Catalan independence founded upon the Spanish Constitution. To conclude, it examines the rise of a novel grassroots civil society movement demanding the right of Catalonia to decide upon its political future.     

The European Communities’ Pyrrhic Victory: European Integration,Terrorism, and the Dublin Agreement of 1979

This article looks at the European Communities’ efforts against terrorism in the 1970s. It argues that in spite of the high ambitions to improve European legal integration, the attempts to develop an antiterrorism agreement were quite obviously a failure. Although the Dublin Agreement was adopted in 1979 after cumbersome and lengthy negotiations, it fell short of showing the member states’ unity and resolve to fight terrorism, and it never entered into force. The tedious negotiations drained the member states’ energy and willingness to such an extent that no other steps toward judicial integration or antiterrorism treaties were taken.     

Divergence in Community Participation Policy: Analysing Localism and Community Empowerment Using a Theory of Change Approach

The last two decades have witnessed a significant turn towards community participation in public policy around the globe, raising concerns that states are resorting to ‘government through community’, shifting responsibilities onto communities. In order to unpack the ambiguous rhetoric of policy statements, this article employs ideas from evaluation methodology to develop a generic theory of change for community participation policy. The model is then utilised to analyse and compare the UK Coalition Government’s Big Society/Localism agenda and the Scottish Government’s Community Empowerment approach, demonstrating the ways in which these represent a clear example of policy divergence, and potentially significant alternatives to state–community relations in the context of austerity. The article also demonstrates the potential wider applicability of ‘theories of change’ methodology for policy analysis.     

THE ‘NEW PUBLIC GOVERNANCE’ AND EMPLOYABILITY SERVICES IN AN ERA OF CRISIS: CHALLENGES FOR THIRD SECTOR ORGANIZATIONS IN SCOTLAND

Third sector organizations (TSOs) have emerged as key players in the delivery of public services to assist jobless people to improve their employability and move from welfare to work. Drawing on in‐depth research with employability providers in Scotland, this article explores how TSOs have responded to the challenges of a rapidly changing public services environment. Specifically, we use the concept of the ‘New Public Governance’ to explore TSOs' relationships with UK, devolved and local government stakeholders. TSOs demonstrated a pragmatic approach to shaping their services to reflect the priorities of public funders, and identified some opportunities arising from the new emphasis on ‘localism’. However, the evidence suggests that opportunities for collaboration at times remained constrained by certain forms of ‘contractualism’ and top‐down performance management. Based on the evidence, lessons for future policy and practice are considered.     

Consensual or Dominant Relationships with Parliament? A Comparison of Administrations and Ministers in Scotland

The study of administrations and ministers and their relationships with UK Parliaments has tended to focus on the issues of accountability and responsibility, levels of legislative dissent or broad performance indicators supported by anecdotal examples. This paper addresses the lack of systematic analysis of executive/legislative relations in the policy‐making process by examining the dominance of different administrations and ministers in the Scottish Parliament. Two questions are addressed. First, is there any variance in the legislative dominance of different administrations in the parliamentary arena? Second, do individual ministers make a difference to the degree of policy dominance? Controlling for both initial authorship and quality of amendments to Executive policy, we analyse the nature and extent of Executive dominance during the legislative process of the First Session of the Scottish Parliament. We find some evidence to suggest that Executive dominance varies both by administration and by individual minister.     

Being Strategic in Partnership – Interpreting Local Knowledge of Modern Local Government

Broad and international literature exists on networked governance which has both described and informed recent transformations in local government. Reforms in the UK have led to the development of strategic partnerships to join up services and solve wicked issues. In Scotland, these are referred to as Community Planning Partnerships. Evidence from numerous studies has highlighted the partial nature of this transformation, particularly around community engagement, with some of the pioneers of this work now questioning earlier assumptions. This article presents an interpretive policy analysis of strategic partnership in Scotland to add three themes to this literature. First, to demonstrate the historical contingency of ‘joined-up government’; second, to explore the practices and meanings used by policy actors to understand ‘strategic’ and ‘partnerships’. Finally, the article problematises strategic partnership working, suggesting that in and of itself it creates effective barriers to community empowerment and even engagement.     

Devolution and Local Government: Evidence from Scotland

Devolution in Scotland has had a major impact upon local government. Local government, at both political and managerial levels, perceives central government in the shape of the Scottish Executive to be closer (geographically and politically) and more open to local government in terms of access to ministers and civil servants. However, Scottish central–local relations continues to be characterised by a sense of mistrust of local government, especially among civil servants and a continuing desire for central control of key policy agendas. Equally, the policy process continues to display features of fragmentation across major policy areas. Moreover, Westminster has not yet departed the scene of Scottish politics in both financial and policy terms but also in the enduring presence of a Westminster ‘political culture’     

Northern Ireland: 20 Years On

To speak of what is exceptional about Northern Ireland today requires a provocative sense of irony, for constitutionally it can be argued Northern Ireland has become one of the most stable parts of the United Kingdom. The fact if not the value of the Union has become more deeply entrenched as both the fact and the value of the Union have come more openly into play elsewhere, even in England. Nevertheless, Northern Ireland is not immune from larger political developments and fantastic uncertainties attend consideration of the next twenty years at different levels of analysis. This article considers these uncertainties according to two possible scenarios, one involving a nationalist narrative and the other involving a unionist narrative. The key issues in each scenario and narrative are the constitutional debate in the United Kingdom, especially the referendum on Scottish independence; the future of the European Union and the United Kingdom's relationship to it; and the changing electoral demographic within Northern Ireland. If Northern Ireland's future is inextricably linked to uncertainty this makes it the rule and not the exception today.     

Westminster No More? Governance,Devolution and Delegation in Scotland

Abstract

Politicians have returned frequently to the need to reform schools to achieve wider objectives of social reform and economic prosperity. Within the UK education systems, however, there have been differing experiences and approaches at both national (Scottish, English, Welsh and Northern Irish) and local levels towards school governance reform. School governance in Scotland remains distinct compared to the rest of the UK, both in terms of the pace of reform and the content. The pace of reform in Scotland has been slower and the content has been shaped to a greater extent by political and professional modes of accountability. This article argues that a new phase in school governance reform is likely to follow the election of the Scottish National Party (SNP) majority government in May 2011. A number of factors both external (international comparison of the school performance; the post 2008 politics of austerity) and internal (changes led by the SNP government to the policy-making process, namely outcomes-based policy-making) have placed debates about school autonomy and school governance on the political agenda.     

Vital Democracy: A Theory of Democracy in Action

Scottish citizens benefit from 19 per cent more public spending per head than English citizens. The ‘Barnett formula’ is slowly reducing the gap, but very little is known about the countries' relative needs and hence about how far the present gap is defensible: the aim of this paper is to throw some light on the countries' relative needs. We begin with the complex formulae that the Westminster government uses to assess the spending needs of English local authorities, and we use these English formulae to assess the needs of Scottish local authorities for three major blocks of local services. These formulae suggest that Scotland needs 6.4 per cent more per head than England for environmental, protective and cultural services, 8.1 per cent more for highway maintenance, and between 24.3 per cent and 35.3 per cent more for fire services. We also combine these results with those of two other papers concerned with local education and social services to show that these English formulae put Scotland's per capita needs for local government services as a whole at about 6 per cent above England's. However, we then compare the relative needs of Scottish local authorities as assessed by the English formulae with their relative needs as assessed by the Scottish needs formulae that are currently used by Holyrood, and we find major differences. This suggests either that at least one country uses seriously flawed formulae to assess needs, or that the two countries have different conceptions of need.     

EU trade and development policy beyond the ACP: subordinating developmental to commercial imperatives in the reform of GSP

Following the stagnation of negotiations with the African, Caribbean and Pacific states, the centrepiece of the European Union's (EU's) trade and development strategy has been a reform of the Generalised System of Preferences. Although policy-makers in the Commission's Directorate General for Trade have argued they are ‘refocusing’ these preferences on the ‘neediest’, by rendering a significant proportion of emerging economies' exports ineligible for the scheme, this article argues that the reform is actually part of a broader ‘reciprocity’ agenda being pursued in the context of the current economic crisis. This is about ensuring the EU possesses sufficient offensive leverage in ongoing free trade agreement negotiations, rather than representing any mercantilist move towards greater domestic protection. In arguing that the EU's developmental trade agenda is increasingly subordinated to commercial imperatives, this article adds to a literature that has situated the study of EU trade and development policy within the field of political economy.     

The New Biopower: Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers and the obfuscation of international collective responsibility

As successors to structural adjustment programmes, Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (prsps) were introduced in 1999 as preconditions for World Bank and imf concessional financing and for debt relief. prsps now serve as the basis of negotiations for a variety of development financing and have influenced the design of other aid instruments. This paper considers the impact of the prsp framework on the constitution of global economic governance, in particular its effect in foreclosing possibilities for a radical revision of the rules and institutions of international economic law. The paper argues that the prsp project not only reframes fundamental tenets of international co-operation and global communal responsibility but also establishes a new disciplinary framework for Third World state engagement with the global economy and the international law which sustains it. In this way the discourse and methods of resistance against the injustices of the international order have been appropriated to distil such dissent through qualified operationalising of contestable notions of ‘participation’, ‘ownership’, ‘partnership’ and ‘poverty reduction’, disabling the resurgence of any form of emancipatory politics in the international economic order, whether through a state-led nieo-style revival or cosmopolitan social movement.     

Public services and local government: the end of the principle of ‘funding following duties’

Recent attention to local government finance in England has focused on the substantial cuts in grant funding during the 2010–15 Parliament. However, the newly introduced Business Rates Retention Scheme, which links the distribution of central funding to business rate revenue raised in each local area, constitutes a historically significant disjuncture in the funding of English local authorities. Since the nineteenth century, with the exception of one short period, funding of English local government has followed statutory duties set by Parliament, a principle which underlay a variety of central control and audit regimes throughout the twentieth century. The new system breaks that link, implying a rejection of responsibility for local services by central government. This plays into demands for greater ‘autonomy’ currently emanating from local authorities, but this may not be a panacea for the stretched financial situation that many of them are experiencing at present.     

Tensions in the discourse and practice of the European Union's Aid for Trade

The contemporary global Aid for Trade (AfT) agenda emerged out of world trade negotiations and it could have profound implications for the future of development aid, depending on how it is interpreted. The European Union (EU) has recontextualised this global agenda to suit its own approach to trade and development; specifically a focus on regional integration, and free market but ‘pro-poor’ development models. AfT is ascribed a variety of purposes in EU texts and its use continues to adapt as the EU's trade and development policy evolves. Institutionally the AfT framework has not strongly affected EU processes, organisational structures or methodology. A study of the use of EU aid for regional integration reveals dissonance between its development relationship and its trade policies while a focus on pro-poor AfT reveals a lack of capacity. Overall, there are tensions not just between discourse and practice but between different discourses of the EU.     

The development of Kurdistan’s de facto statehood: Kurdistan’s September 2017 referendum for independence

This research aims to analyse the drivers which informed the decision and timing of Kurdistan’s independence referendum on 25 September 2017. Here we argue that any proper examination of these drivers must begin by investigating the relationship between the fight to counter the Islamic State begun in 2014, the disputes arising as a result of Kurdistan’s presidential election issue in 2015 and the internal political rivalry exacerbated by the question of whether to hold a referendum. The findings of this article highlight the centrality of de facto entities’ internal governance in their struggle towards statehood. The fight against IS served as a primary driver in influencing the timing and the approach of the September 2017 referendum. While the 2015 political deadlock resulting in the illegal extension of Barzani’s presidency was not a determining factor leading to the referendum, nonetheless it quickened the process and influenced the timing.     

Mass Violence and the Recognition of Kosovo: Suffering and Recognition

In instances of international negotiations over state recognition, the way the violence sustained by a given group is categorised becomes a critical factor in the international community's decision to support independence or not. This essay argues that the recognition of Kosovo in February 2008 was made possible by the use of justifications based on Kosovo Albanians' collective status as victims of ethnic cleansing. The essay bridges the gap between two bodies of literature that have not been used in conjunction up to now, namely normative theories of ‘remedial’ secession and works on the logic of mass violence against ethnically defined groups. It finds that the international community has used the ‘remedial argument’ for Kosovo's recognition because it allowed it to minimise the risk of further unilateral declarations of independence in a volatile region.     

The succession of policy termination

Despite the cessation of a variety of governmental organisations, policies and programmes in the UK throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the termination concept which emerged during the late 1970s remains heavily under utilised. This is attributed partly to the effects of the same incremental practices which termination was designed to solve; partly to the difficulties of distinguishing the categories of ‘termination’ from ‘succession’ ; and partly to Kaufman's assertion that organisational survival was a matter of chance, and therefore not fruitful to study. Academic interest in governmental cessations remains firmly rooted in the termination of organisations; much less attention has been paid to the ending of policies and programmes. Management science research can be used to challenge assertions about the lack of pattern in organisational survival, and the way in which political science has operationalised the concept of incerementalist, suggesting the applicability of semi rationalist techniques in an incrementalist world. Using a hierarchical reformulation of de Leon's 1978 categorisation of governmental functions, organisations, policies and programmes it is here suggested that ‘termination’ and ‘succession’ are distinct. In doing so, the aim is to demonstrate the practical utility of the termination concept, both for analysis, and for practitioners whose interest is centred on the opportunity cost savings which cessations can make available.