Causal Complexity and Party Preference

Abstract.  Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) overlaps logistic regression in explaining events, but challenges the latter's lack of accounting for causal complexity. QCA has only to a limited degree been applied to large-N studies or individuals as cases and has not incorporated the logic of probability. QCA and logistic regression are compared with respect to logic, procedure and outcome. Political orientations from five national surveys are adapted to the requirements of the two methods. The methods are demonstrated on explanations of individuals' party preferences. QCA and logistic regression converge and overlap in identifying degrees of causal complexity, in ascertaining model significance and in identifying antecedents to party preference. Results differ in degree, not in kind. A slightly more nuanced picture emerges using the QCA approach, whereas logistic regression delivers greater parsimony. Choice of method(s) is not arbitrary. QCA can easily be used on any large-N research problem. It should apply probability when appropriate.     

Kevin Kelly's Complexity Theory: The Politics and Ideology of Self-organising Systems

Regarded as a contemporary prophet of the new technology and economy, widely acclaimed author and editor of Wired , Kevin Kelly argues that the realms of nature and human construction are becoming one. Human-made things are becoming more lifelike and life is becoming more engineered. Utilising complexity theory and other concepts fashioned on the paradigmatic logic of biological systems, Kelly envisions a future with radically different forms of social and organisational control. In this future world, control is dispersed in highly pluralistic, open, and decentralised systems. Natural, technological, economic and social elements of the system co-evolve towards a superior, neo-biological civilisation that (among other things) will foster bottom-up control, co-ordinated change and co-operation among all elements. We contest Kelly's metaphysic of the new economy and new technology, arguing that he illicitly collapses technology and the economy into nature, using nature metaphors to legitimate the new forms of economy and organisation. We argue that Kelly fails to factor in the logic of capital into his scenario and does not explore the consequences of the new organisation of economy and new technology for the environment and society.     

Culture and the Study of Politics*

This article is an introduction to a new and promising alternative to dominant reductionistic, utilitarian and instrumental political theories. ‘Cultural Theory’, or ‘Grid-Group’ analysis has been developed by the British anthropologist Mary Douglas and transferred to political science by the American political scientist Aaron Wildavsky. Starting from two dimensions - ‘group’ (group strength) and ‘grid’ (the number of rules that influence the individual space of action), there exist four main forms of human interaction or ways of life - individualism (markets), sectarianism (egalitarism). collectivism (hierarchy) and fatalism (slavery) which can be applied to all kinds of societies, organizations and individuals. These cultures are then used to predict political action (politics), institutions (polity) and results (policies). The article shows how the theory is built up and where it comes from, and then concentrates on important logical and empirical problems that so far remain unsolved.     

Globalisation and the Study of British Politics

The study of British politics has focused on the nation state as a self-contained entity. The globalisation thesis challenges this perspective. Nation states are seen as weak and irrelevant in the face of the power of footloose finance capital. This article explores the relevance of the globalisation thesis for the student of British politics. It argues that the frame of reference does need to embrace the impact of external constraints. But it is critical of the structuralism integral to the globalisation thesis because it robs politicians of control and responsibility at the same time as it minimises the importance of the domestic story.     

Political Culture and the Study of Chinese Politics

It is both a truth and a truism that Chinese politics cannot be understood without reference to Chinese culture (a truth and truism that would apply to any other society as well). But within the academic discipline of political science political culture has lost status over the past generation as not conducive to the development of empirical political theory. The usual candidate for replacement is rational choice theory. But properly understood, political culture is compatible with rational choice, inasmuch as there is no single standard of rationality, but, rather, it will vary from society to society and era to era. Considerations of the cultural background are necessary to provide content to rational choice theory, since without consideration of culture context rational choice threatens to reduce to a set of colorless banalities.

Mark Kesselman and the Study of Comparative Politics*

At the turn of the century, it seemed inevitable that regional integration in Latin America would occur under the rubric of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and US hegemony. But 2005—the year the FTAA was to have been launched—has come and gone, and the whole FTAA project is in tatters. This article will examine two regional integration initiatives, which have emerged in its wake—the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA). Both represent a challenge to US-led integration. However, the Venezuelan-centered ALBA is potentially a much more radical challenge to neoliberalism than the Brazilian-centered UNASUR.     

Politics Against Science: Reflections on the Study of Chinese Politics in Contemporary China

As a preliminary investigation and an intellectual reflection of the state of the field of Chinese domestic political study conducted in the Chinese language in mainland China, this paper deals with a threefold task. It first assesses the state of the field of the study of Chinese politics in mainland China, and argues that this scholarship is underdeveloped in comparison with the study of home-country politics in some other countries. It then clarifies the often blurring boundaries in contemporary China between the political science study of Chinese politics on one hand and other categories of political writings on the other, and maintains that the political penetration from the Party-state has been the major factor that hinders the intellectual development of the study of Chinese politics as a branch of political science. The paper, thirdly, suggests the so-called “open-minded independence of scholarship” with the emphases on academic autonomy and institutionalized professionalism as what the most needed for developing the study of Chinese politics in the Sinophonic world.     

廉洁政治的内涵与价值指向

根据社会主义的本质属性和政治文明的基本要求,廉洁政治强调在中国特色社会主义理论指导下,遵循廉洁的基本价值理念,以廉明的政治制度为基础,以廉洁的政治管理为主线,以公职人员廉正的从政行为为保障,实现政治清明、政府清廉、干部清正。社会主义廉洁政治发展必须以推动社会先进生产力发展为根本目标,以促进政治制度廉洁为政治行为准则,以实现人的全面发展为核心价值取向,为社会主义政治文明的发展提供政治伦理价值目标与文化支撑。     

A Comparative Study of the Politics of GM Food and Crops

Comparative study of GM food and crops may reveal the extent to which systems of scientific regulatory assessment are related to priorities which are derived through cultural influence rather than positivistic assessment. Differing regulatory outcomes, and differing priorities for scientific assessment of agricultural biotechnology, are visible in the UK, the USA and India. Explanations of these differences can be obtained by investigating the nature of the differing interest groups whose values underpin different national regulatory paradigms and also by investigating the way that these interest groups came to have influence.     

Politics and the State

Political theorists disagree about whether 'politics' and 'the political' should bedefined narrowly or broadly. Defenders of broad conceptions argue that narrow definitions exclude phenomena that ought to be included and lead us to misunderstand the relationship between different forces in society. Defenders of narrow conceptions argue that broad definitions collapse the distinction between the social and the political, and deprive politics of any distinctive identity. I shall argue that neither of these arguments is successful and that disputes over whether we should adopt a narrow or a broad view of politics are, for the most part, merely verbal.     

Complex Causal Relations and Case Study Methods: The Example of Path Dependence

Colin Elman Department of Political Science, Arizona State University, Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 85287-3902 e-mail: bennetta{at}georgetown.edu e-mail: colin.elman{at}asu.edu (corresponding author) This article discusses the application of qualitative methodsin analyzing causal complexity. In particular, the essay reviewshow process tracing and systematic case comparisons can addresspath-dependent explanations. The article unpacks the conceptof path dependence and its component elements of causal possibility,contingency, closure of alternatives, and constraints to thecurrent path. The article then reviews four strengths that casestudies bring to the study of path dependence: offering a detailedand holistic analysis of sequences in historical cases, beingsuitable for the study of rare events, facilitating the searchfor omitted variables that might lie behind contingent events,and allowing for the study of interaction effects within oneor a few cases.     

The Politics of Recognition versus the Politics of Hatred

Hatred of America expressed in the 11 September attack is more than matched by the hatred by Americans for Islamists expressed in the war on Afghanistan, the War against Terror and the threatened wars against the 'Axis of Evil'. It is argued here that there is a pattern of self-reinforcing hatred operating in the world set in motion by the actions of the United States, particularly by George Bush Snr, and embraced and used by George Bush Jr to reinforce and further develop this pattern. To oppose this it is necessary to understand how hatred is generated, how this system operates and how Bush is exploiting it, and then to provide an alternative. It is argued this requires a new story of civilisation as the quest for justice understood as true recognition to oppose to the myths based on hatred promulgated by Bush. In terms of this story, the extreme economic, social, political and military policies of Bush and the myths used to justify them should be recognised for what they are, the challenge of barbarism to civilisation.     

Temporal Order and Causal Inference

Measures of change in pairs of attitudinal variables can provideimportant insights into the structure of the political beliefsystems of mass publics. Panel data reveal evidence of the greatercentrality of some idea elements rather than others in the contextof short-term dynamic constraint. Specification of the theoreticallyrelevant voter attributes makes it possible to test for expectedstructural differences connecting policy related predispositionsand policy preferences; specification also makes it possibleto test propositions involving the reciprocal effects of attitudesand emerging vote preferences. Some of the more helpful specificationsdisclose the extent to which population heterogeneity producesa blurred image of relationships when analysis is based on thetotal electorate rather than limited to voters or subsets ofvoters specified by theoretical criteria.     

Investigating the Causal Effects of Arts Education

There is a paucity of research on the causal relationship between arts learning and educational outcomes. Investigating these relationships has become imperative as policymakers increasingly prioritize empirical evidence of educational impacts, which often leads to curriculum narrowing that favors traditionally-tested subjects. Employing a randomized controlled trial with 42 elementary and middle schools in Houston, Texas, we find that randomly assigning arts educational opportunities reduces disciplinary infractions, improves writing achievement, and increases students’ emotional empathy. Students in elementary schools, which were the primary focus of the program, also experience increases in school engagement, college aspirations, and cognitive empathy. As the first large-scale randomized control trial of arts learning in an authentic school setting, these findings provide strong evidence that the arts can produce meaningful impacts on students’ academic outcomes and social-emotional development. Education policymakers should consider these benefits when assessing the role of the arts in schools.