The Dynamics of Enlargement in International Organizations

Most international organizations (IOs) expand their membership over the course of their lifespan. Although these enlargements tend to be heralded as normatively positive — for the IOs themselves, for the new members, and for cooperative outcomes more generally — expansions can also lead to conflicts in the organization. What conditions lead to enlargement rounds that reshape an organization in unexpected ways? We argue that, depending upon the diversity of the initial group of countries, members may vote to admit new entrants that can tilt organizational decision-making in unexpected directions. We anticipate fewer enlargements with lesser impact on the character of the organization among organizations that have either a smaller range of founding members or a relatively even initial dispersion. We develop an agent-based model that accounts for the complex decision-making environment and social dynamics that typify IO accession processes. The model helps us explain how the nature of decision-making in organizations can shift following enlargement, likely changing the organization’s output and goals.     

When Heads Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation

Leadership targeting has become a key feature of current counterterrorism policies. Both academics and policy makers have argued that the removal of leaders is an effective strategy in combating terrorism. However, leadership decapitation is not always successful, and existing empirical work is insufficient to account for this variability. As a result, this project answers three primary questions: (1) Under what conditions does leadership decapitation result in the dissolution of a terrorist organization?; (2) Does leadership decapitation increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond the baseline rate of collapse for groups over time?; and (3) In cases where decapitation does not result in group collapse, to what extent does it result in organizational degradation and hinder a group's ability to carry about terrorist attacks? I develop a dataset of 298 incidents of leadership targeting from 1945–2004 in order to determine whether and when decapitation is effective. First, I identify the conditions under which decapitation has been successful in bringing about organizational decline. The data show that a group's age, size, and type are critical in identifying when decapitation will cause the cessation of terrorist activity. As an organization grows in size and age, it is much more likely to withstand the removal of its leadership. Organizational type is also significant in understanding the susceptibility of an organization to decapitation. Ideological organizations are most likely to experience a cessation of activity following the removal of leader, while religious organizations are highly resistant to leadership decapitation. Second, I determine whether decapitation is an effective counterterrorism strategy that results in organizational collapse. The data show that decapitation does not increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond a baseline rate of collapse for groups over time. Organizations that have not had their leaders removed are more likely to fall apart than those that have undergone a loss of leadership. The marginal utility of decapitation is negative for many groups, particularly for larger, older, religious, and separatist organizations. Finally, I look at the extent to which decapitation results in organizational degradation and hinders a group's ability to carry about terrorist attacks. Case studies illustrate whether decapitation has an effect on the operational capacity of an organization by identifying whether the removal of key leaders changes the number and lethality of attacks. If certain organizations are more resilient than others, it is important to know when decapitation should be effective and when it could lead to counterproductive outcomes. Overall, these findings illustrate the need to develop a new model for evaluating the efficacy of leadership decapitation and for developing effective counterterrorism policies.     

Investing in international security: rising powers and organizational choices

How do rising powers choose to allocate their finite resources among the multiple global and regional security organizations? Building on the literatures on forum shopping and rising powers, we argue that the different organizational investment choices of rising powers are explained by varying regional ideational affinities. Organizational settings have ideational foundations that can look very different from region to region. We argue that regional ideational affinity leads rising powers to invest in regional rather than global organizations. However, if the ideational composition of the region is highly diverse, global organizations are a better vehicle to accommodate rising powers’ emergent ambitions. To demonstrate our argument, we examine the choices of Brazil and South Africa in terms of their material and ideational investments in regional and global organizations.     

"Spontaneous" Interethnic Order: The Emergence of Collective, Path-Dependent Cooperation

Can "spontaneous," decentralized interethnic cooperation emerge among ethnic groups whose members heavily discount future interethnic relations and do not fear punishment for interethnic noncooperation? Why is it that once the interaction between two ethnic groups evolves along a certain (cooperative or conflictual) path it sometimes becomes harder for the interacting groups to reverse course and seek alternative paths? The answer to these two questions lies in the fact that individual members not only are always calculative and could hence act opportunistically, but also are interdependent and can learn from one another. Because the members of interacting groups operate interdependently they thereby create collective nonlinear path dependence. Using a social game (within evolutionary game theory) the article shows counterintuitively that the emergence of collective, nonlinear path dependence within and across ethnic groups whose members heavily discount the future and face no punishment for interethnic noncooperation makes "spontaneous" decentralized interethnic cooperation a long-run equilibrium. Collective cooperation can thus develop path-dependently among ethnic groups without a Damocles' sword of any sort hanging over their members' heads, even when most individuals are shortsighted and opportunistic.     

Exit From Terrorism: A Qualitative Empirical Study on Disengagement and Deradicalization Among Members of ETA

Terrorists disengage from the groups or organizations to which they belong as a result of structural, organizational, or personal factors. These types of factors seem to operate with relative mutual independence. All this can be analytically induced from research conducted at an individual level of analysis, based on 35 long interviews with former members of ETA who voluntarily decided to conclude their militancy at some point between 1970 and 2000. Until the mid-1980s, the individual decision to leave ETA tended to be linked to a subjective perception of ongoing political and social changes. From then on, disagreement with the internal functioning of the ethno-nationalist terrorist organization or the tactics adopted by its leaders became more salient motivations for those militants who decided to walk away. All along, however, there were ETA members who left terrorism behind for reasons of a rather personal nature. As expected, in this qualitative empirical study, disengagement was found to be a process seldom concomitant to that of deradicalization.     

Revolution in the city: On the resources of urban guerrillas

Authors who address the topic of rural guerrilla warfare argue that the ability to engage in political violence is predicated upon support from the local population and the capabilities of guerrilla organizations. We examine the applicability of these arguments for modern urban guerrilla warfare. We find that the Provisional Irish Republican Army draws on individual, organizational and environmental resources, and that the impact of these resources on the IRA has changed over time. Of these resources, the most important appear to be a combination of individual and organizational resources. Organizing into a cell structure in 1977 made the IRA dependent on only the passive support of the Northern Irish Nationalist population, and a high level of political awareness among IRA guerrillas guarantees that the IRA maintains this passive support.     

Engaging environmental turbulence: drivers of organizational flexibility in the armed forces

Since the transformation was set in motion to change Western armed forces from large-scale mechanized defensive organizations into smaller agile expeditionary crisis response forces, the call for organizational flexibility has rocketed. Yet, actual research into the key organizational drivers of flexibility has hardly been done. To bridge this gap, the present study has analyzed to what extent modular organizing and organizational sensing have contributed to flexible military crisis response performance. The study uses the Netherlands’ armed forces as a representative example of a contemporary Western crisis response organization and empirically draws upon its recent operational experiences. It has uncovered that within most mission contexts, modular organizing acts as a facilitator for the organizational sensing process. Yet, within highly turbulent crisis response missions, organizational sensing becomes the predominant driver, stimulating ad hoc solutions that challenge existing structures, available technology, and standard procedures.     

Who Can Keep the Peace? Insurgent Organizational Control of Collective Violence

Every armed organization seeks the ability to turn violence on and off by getting fighters to fight when ordered and to stop fighting when similarly ordered. This ability is a defining feature of what makes organized violence, in fact, organized. While state militaries develop clear hierarchies and disciplinary procedures to accomplish this goal, the complexity of civil war makes the task more difficult for insurgent groups. I argue that the leaders of insurgent organizations are able to turn violence on and off when they have deliberately established resource control through the direct, and exclusive, distribution of resources to their followers and those followers are socially embedded, meaning that members are united by strong horizontal ties and group norms. In contrast to existing approaches, I argue that material and social endowments do not predetermine whether leaders can establish resource control or embeddedness. Further, laying out the precise organizational mechanisms that determine when organizations can turn violence on and off challenges the utility of conceptions such as “fragmentation” or “cohesion” for explaining insurgent behavior and conflict outcomes. I test the theory by examining variation in behavior over time in two organizations facing different structural contexts—Jaysh al-Mahdi in Iraq and the Viet Minh in Vietnam—and find strong support for my argument while casting doubt on existing explanations.     

Designing Police: Interpol and the Study of Change in International Organizations

On those rare occasions when scholars of international organizations (IOs) consider the issue of change, they typically highlight the centrality of states. Although states are important for understanding when and why there is a change in the tasks, mandate, and design of IO, IOs themselves can initiate change. Drawing from sociological institutional and resource dependence approaches, in this article we treat IOs as strategic actors that can choose among a set of strategies in order to pursue their goals in response to changing environmental pressures and constraints that potentially threaten their relevance and resource base. We delineate six strategies—acquiescence, compromise, avoidance, defiance, manipulation, and strategic social construction, and suggest that the strategic choice by IOs is contingent on the level of both organizational insecurity and the congruence between the content of environmental pressures and organizational culture. We emphasize how IOs must make a trade-off between acquiring the resources necessary to survive and be secure, on the one hand, and maintaining autonomy, on the other. We apply this framework to the case of Interpol, investigating how different calculations of these trade-offs led Interpol staff to adopt different strategies depending on its willingness to accept, resist, or initiate changes that demand conformity to external pressures.     

Coercion in Rebel Recruitment

Previous research on rebel recruitment has focused on the economic and social incentives groups used as enticements but has overlooked the question of why many armed groups recruit using coercion. The puzzle is why coercion occurs despite its alienating civilian populations and being costly in terms of organizational and military effectiveness. I suggest that recruitment is a dynamic process and that groups are likely to shift recruitment strategies depending on the exigencies of the conflict. In particular, the exposure of the group to military and economic shocks accompanied by shortened time horizons should lead to increasingly coercive recruitment. Whether forced recruitment is a durable solution for a group in the long run is likely to be contingent upon the group's ability to induce a high level of compliance from the individual at a low cost. Further, in order to circumvent costs vis-à-vis the civilian population, the group must be able to restrict defection to the government and the out-migration of the civilian population. Three narratives from Nepal, Ethiopia, and Sierra Leone are provided both to illustrate the arguments and to probe the scope conditions. The article concludes that understanding why and when rebel groups use forced recruitment has vital security implications for the countries in which armed conflict takes place.     

贸易一体化与东亚区域经济合作

欧洲半个多世纪的区域一体化实践为世界上其他地区的一体化合作提供了理论和组织模式借鉴,但欧盟(原15国)是一个"同质"成员结构的区域,其一体化历程有着独特的历史渊源和现实原因,一体化组织模式更多地体现为一种制度性安排;而东亚是一个"异质"成员结构的区域,东亚的"异质"结构特征意味着其区域经济合作将有着自己独特的路径,贸易一体化是东亚区域经济合作的初级阶段,建立基于垂直专业化分工的区域生产网络是东亚推进区域经济合作的重要途径.     

Multiculturalism and trust in Japan: educational policies and schooling practices

Abstract

Japan's foreign population is growing, and policy-makers need to address the manifold challenges of an emerging multicultural society. Most importantly, this concerns the task to prevent societal frictions from occurring. This article puts Japan's preparedness to face the challenge of trust-building between members of different ethnic groups to test. The realm of educational policies and schooling practices will stand at the center of interest. It will be argued that the Japanese approach of an integration policy, with its strong focus on the concept of multiculturalism on a national level of policy-making, falls short of creating opportunities for trust-learning among the members of the societal majority and various minority groups. On a subnational level, however, e.g. in Kanagawa Prefecture, some best-practice examples of trust-learning across ethnic boundaries can nevertheless be identified, and may serve as starting points for future policy reforms.     

亚洲开发银行的运行分析及其对筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行的启示

亚洲开发银行的成立是在特定的时代背景下,各方国际力量追逐利益博弈的结果。经过40多年的运营,亚洲开发银行在资金来源、职能定位、组织结构、主要业务及未来重点发展领域等方面日趋成熟与完善。通过对亚洲开发银行运行现状进行分析,可归纳出四个方面的成功经验,但也存在五个方面的问题,这些经验与问题给亚洲基础设施投资银行的创建和未来的运营带来了诸多的启示。     

The Present Moment as a Critical Moment

Like a musical interlude, the present moment hovers between becoming the past and progressing into the future. Critical moments, for the author, are moments in which the parties are fully in the present or the "now," caught in a pivotal space where any action, or even inaction, will change the destiny of the situation and the actors themselves. It is a transformative journey, taken together, that starts with moment of suspense, and traverses a landscape of emotion and intention where a world of change becomes possible.     

Different Threats,Different Militaries:Explaining Organizational Practices in Authoritarian Armies

Why do some states generate competent, professional military organizations, while others fail to do so even when they have the required economic, demographic, and technological endowments? Variation in states’ military organizational practices—their core policies related to promotion patterns, training regimens, command arrangements, and information management—holds the key. This article develops a typology of such practices and explains why and how they vary in response to the internal and external threats facing particular regimes. The article then subjects this argument to a carefully designed plausibility probe comparing the threat environments and military organizational practices of two states whose differences are both intuitively and theoretically puzzling: North and South Vietnam during the period 1954–1975. The initial evidence provides support for the theory and casts doubt on existing explanations of military organizational behavior focused on external threats, democracy, or the degree of political intervention in the military. The findings have important implications for foreign policy, as well as for future research on authoritarianism, civil-military relations, and military effectiveness.     

Agricultural cooperatives and social empowerment of women: a Ugandan case study

This article presents a case study of Manyakabi Area Cooperative Enterprise in south-western Uganda, which shows that benefits from agricultural cooperatives can extend beyond monetary tangibles. We discuss several social factors that women members claimed have improved since they became members of the cooperative, including their confidence, their negotiating skills, the ability to be of service to their communities through transferring skills to non-members, and the ability to take control of certain household decisions when dealing with men. We conclude that these social benefits could be enhanced if they were fully acknowledged as important by agents of change.     

The Organizational Ombudsman as Change Agent

Though the organizational ombudsman's role may sometimes be regardedas only a facilitator of individual problem solving, in fact the ombudspersonis ideally situated within the organization to make recommendationsfor systemic change, based on patterns of complaint brought to the office.Indeed, the ombuds is obligated to take steps to prevent future recurrence ofa problem, as well as to resolve the problem at hand. Furthermore, becauseof the ombuds' broad understanding of the organizational culture, theneeds of its leaders and other stakeholders, the ombuds office - in additionto being a vital component of the organization's conflict managementsystem - may also participate in designing, evaluating and improving theentire dispute resolution system for the organization.     

Are groups a good thing? Evaluating group associations among vegetable farmers in Freetown,Sierra Leone

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) is a widespread feature in sub-Saharan African cities, and has become particularly important in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Recent surveys have revealed the importance of UPA in Freetown as a method for generating food, income, and employment. Government and NGOs have encouraged urban farmers to group together into farming associations so that advice and inputs can be provided. Little information currently exists about the functioning of these associations, and whether their effectiveness might be improved. This paper draws upon recent field-based research in which the experiences of members in six different farming associations were investigated.     

GUUAM and the future of CIS military cooperation

This study analyses the establishment and development of the GUUAM cooperation and offers an assessment of the future implications of this regional grouping for the CIS military alliance. It presents three key arguments. First, that the GUUAM members have bandwagoned with western states at the system level and balanced against Russia at the regional level. Second, that there is a dialectical relationship between these two policies, with one getting added momentum from the other. And finally, that on this background we should expect to see increased future balancing by the GUUAM states — and possibly by other CIS members as well — causing a further undermining of the CIS military cooperation.     

Crisis Management Europe: An Integrated Regional Research and Training Program

This article describes the Crisis Management (CM) Europe program that seeks to produce scientific knowledge that can be used also in order to train practitioners to cope more effectively with national and regional crises. Initiated in 1997 with a focus on the Baltic Sea area, the program has recently been broadened to cover all of Europe. The program documents and analyzes specific cases of national and regional crises. It relies upon a contextually grounded process tracing strategy for case reconstruction and dissection derived from relevant literatures in political science, psychology, and organizational sociology. To facilitate comparison and cumulation of case findings, a systematic four-step research procedure has been developed. Ten analytical themes of potential interest to both scholars and practitioners are identified as targets for structured focused comparison. More than a hundred cases have been studied by researchers working in research teams based in many European countries. Training tools have been successfully deployed in training practitioners from more than a dozen countries. An ongoing dialogue between academics and practitioners from across the Continent promises to make a contribution toward bridging the gap between these two different communities.